J.P. Massey

P Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 205 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	20	18	80	3.81	3.92	24.3%	13.7%	—	K 18.2% · BB 16.0% · FIP 4.95
2024	24	A+PIT	20	17	69	5.24	4.02	20.9%	12.3%	—	K 16.1% · BB 14.2% · FIP 4.72
2025	25	A+PIT	34	0	46	6.80	4.96	20.1%	14.6%	—	K 15.5% · BB 16.8% · FIP 5.71
2026	26	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	27	MLBPIT	—	—	0	6.10	6.10	15.0%	17.8%	—
2028PROJ37% MLB	28	MLBPIT	14	0	15	5.98	6.01	15.7%	17.1%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	29	MLBPIT	18	0	19	5.95	6.01	16.1%	16.7%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control25Command30

CompsPaul Clemens (age 27) · Alex Caldera (age 29) · Luis Niebla (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149141vR 133

ERA6.10

FIP6.10

K%15.0%

BB%17.8%

K-BB%-2.8%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2525

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	18	80	342	83	47	7	90%	4.0	18.2%	16.0%	2.2%	2.5%	3.81	4.95	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	18	80	342	83	47	7	90%	4.0	24.3%	13.7%	10.5%	2.0%	3.81	3.92	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	20	17	69	316	66	39	6	85%	3.4	16.1%	14.2%	1.9%	2.1%	5.24	4.72	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	20	17	69	316	66	39	6	85%	3.4	16.1%	14.2%	1.9%	2.1%	5.24	4.72	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	20	17	69	316	66	39	6	85%	3.4	20.9%	12.3%	8.5%	1.9%	5.24	4.02	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	34	0	46	219	44	32	6	0%	1.4	15.5%	16.8%	-1.3%	3.3%	6.80	5.71	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	34	0	46	219	44	32	6	0%	1.4	15.5%	16.8%	-1.3%	3.3%	6.80	5.71	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	34	0	46	219	44	32	6	0%	1.4	20.1%	14.6%	5.5%	2.7%	6.80	4.96	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.0%	17.8%	-2.8%	3.0%	6.10	6.10	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	PIT	40	0	42	176	28	30	5	0%	1.0	15.7%	17.1%	-1.3%	3.1%	5.98	6.01	-0.7
2029	29	MLB MLE	PIT	33	0	34	144	23	24	5	0%	1.0	16.1%	16.7%	-0.6%	3.2%	5.95	6.01	-0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	PIT	14	0	15	63	10	11	2	0%	1.1	15.7%	17.1%	-1.3%	3.1%	5.98	6.01	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	PIT	18	0	19	80	13	13	3	0%	1.1	16.1%	16.7%	-0.6%	3.2%	5.95	6.01	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		32	0	34	144	23	24	5	0%	1.1	15.9%	16.9%	-0.9%	3.2%	5.96	5.63	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	135	141	29	0%	1.1	15.9%	16.9%	-0.9%	3.2%	5.96	5.63	-2.5
Career	—	MLE		74	35	195	877	147	136	22	47%	2.6	16.8%	15.6%	1.2%	2.6%	5.02	5.06	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	36	200	898	150	140	23	47%	2.6	16.8%	15.6%	1.2%	2.6%	5.02	5.06	-3.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 46 IPFIP 4.76 → 5.71 (+0.96)K% 20.1% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.09%	—	×0.770	15.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.61%	—	×1.150	16.80%
HR / BF /BF	2.74%	÷1.048	×1.250	3.27%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 4.76 → 5.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 69 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.72 (+0.78)K% 20.9% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.89%	—	×0.770	16.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.34%	—	×1.150	14.19%
HR / BF /BF	1.90%	÷1.106	×1.250	2.15%

Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ABradenton Marauders · 49 IPFIP 3.30 → 4.51 (+1.21)K% 27.1% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.14%	—	×0.740	20.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.43%	—	×1.180	13.49%
HR / BF /BF	1.90%	÷0.971	×1.300	2.55%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 3.30 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 31 IPFIP 4.89 → 5.65 (+0.76)K% 19.7% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.70%	—	×0.770	15.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.42%	—	×1.150	20.04%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷1.202	×1.250	2.36%

Result: FIP 4.89 → 5.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
J.P. Massey (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.10	15.0%	17.8%	3.0%	—	6.01	15.9%	-1.0%	76	-0.09	—	—	—
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	345	74
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	73
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	73
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	72
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	71
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	70
Vanny Valenzuela R 2015 · 6.82 FIP	27	SW	6.82	12.4%	14.8%	5.3%	.314	4.29	15.8%	4.6%	70	-2.53	3.26	118	70
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	69
Keyvius Sampson R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	26	SP-	5.08	19.6%	16.4%	2.8%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	69
Brad Allen R 2016 · 5.82 FIP	27	SW	5.82	14.7%	13.2%	4.2%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	149	69
Ariel Peña R 2016 · 6.26 FIP	27	SW	6.26	16.2%	17.7%	4.2%	.379	4.57	21.8%	6.0%	75	-1.69	3.74	223	69
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	68
Jake Walters R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SW	5.85	15.2%	13.9%	4.2%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	261	68
Chris Jensen R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	27	SW	5.31	12.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	488	67
Jeremy Guthrie R 2006 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	15.1%	15.1%	2.1%	.349	4.57	14.8%	8.1%	566	-0.35	4.08	1,834	67
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	66
Drake Fellows R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	26	SP-	4.97	16.1%	12.7%	2.9%	.293	4.85	14.2%	6.3%	207	-0.12	4.28	282	66
Victor Mateo R 2016 · 5.45 FIP	27	SW	5.45	10.2%	12.2%	3.0%	.370	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	199	66
Hunter Dollander R 2023 · 6.77 FIP	26	SU	6.77	17.6%	18.3%	5.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	106	65
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	15.5%	17.3%	1.19	6.03
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*