J.P. Massey
P
Greensboro Grasshoppers
+0.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'5" / 205 lbs
A+
ERA4.96
FIP4.96
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.0%
BB%12.3%
K-BB%7.6%
IP48
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL2525
CMD3030
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 20 | 18 | 80 | 342 | 83 | 47 | 7 | 18.2% | 16.0% | 2.5% | 3.81 | 4.96 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 20 | 17 | 69 | 316 | 66 | 39 | 6 | 16.1% | 14.2% | 2.1% | 5.24 | 4.70 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 34 | 0 | 46 | 219 | 44 | 32 | 6 | 15.5% | 16.8% | 3.3% | 6.80 | 5.71 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 37 | 31 | 6 | 18.2% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 5.48 | 5.48 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 38 | 29 | 6 | 18.7% | 14.6% | 3.0% | 5.37 | 5.37 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 38 | 28 | 6 | 19.0% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 5.31 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 37 | 27 | 6 | 19.1% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 5.29 | 5.31 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 36 | 26 | 6 | 19.0% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 5.32 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 34 | 26 | 6 | 18.8% | 14.2% | 3.2% | 5.38 | 5.43 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 32 | 25 | 6 | 18.5% | 14.3% | 3.2% | 5.46 | 5.51 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 30 | 24 | 6 | 18.2% | 14.5% | 3.3% | 5.55 | 5.61 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 17.9% | 14.7% | 3.4% | 5.65 | 5.72 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 26 | 22 | 5 | 17.5% | 14.9% | 3.5% | 5.77 | 5.84 | -0.4 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 24 | 21 | 5 | 17.0% | 15.2% | 3.7% | 5.89 | 5.97 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 74 | 35 | 195 | 877 | 147 | 136 | 22 | 16.8% | 15.6% | 2.5% | 5.02 | 5.05 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 76 | 36 | 200 | 898 | 151 | 139 | 23 | 16.8% | 15.6% | 2.5% | 5.02 | 5.05 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| J.P. Massey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.48 | 18.2% | 15.2% | 2.9% | — | 5.33 | 19.0% | 4.6% | 140 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Justin Courtney R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.14 | 16.8% | 12.8% | 3.3% | .331 | 8.65 | 18.4% | 7.1% | 21 | +3.51 | 4.59 | 108 | 88 |
| Paul Clemens R 2027 · 5.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.33 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.0% | .310 | 4.55 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.78 | 4.49 | 247 | 86 |
| Derek Eitel R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.29 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.05 | 4.00 | 138 | 86 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2028 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 86 |
| Preston Johnson R 2025 · 5.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.12 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.9% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 104 | 86 |
| Haden Erbe R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.24 | 17.8% | 17.3% | 2.6% | .240 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.24 | 116 | 85 |
| Gregory Infante R 2028 · 4.55 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.55 | 16.9% | 15.7% | 1.6% | .290 | 3.80 | 21.3% | 12.7% | 181 | -0.75 | 2.97 | 230 | 85 |
| Morgan McSweeney R 2025 · 5.36 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.36 | 19.6% | 14.7% | 3.7% | .256 | 3.85 | 15.0% | 5.6% | 61 | -1.51 | 3.85 | 189 | 85 |
| David Holman R 2027 · 5.48 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.48 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.8% | .324 | 5.48 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.00 | 5.37 | 129 | 84 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 84 |
| Grant Black R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +1.00 | 4.46 | 215 | 84 |
| Billy Seidl R 2024 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.3% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 84 |
| Cody Scroggins R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.50 | 20.5% | 16.2% | 2.0% | .351 | 3.77 | 14.2% | 4.6% | 18 | -0.73 | 3.77 | 108 | 84 |
| Jake Johansen R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.68 | 15.9% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.64 | 12.8% | 4.9% | 48 | -1.04 | 3.64 | 162 | 83 |
| Julian Arballo R 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.14 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .335 | 4.48 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -0.66 | 4.42 | 214 | 83 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.58 | 17.7% | 14.7% | 2.0% | .246 | 4.73 | 12.9% | -1.0% | 29 | +0.15 | 4.58 | 151 | 83 |
| Tyler Burch R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.96 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.55 | 119 | 83 |
| Roman Phansalkar R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.36 | 15.8% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .294 | 4.33 | 18.2% | 3.7% | 31 | -1.03 | 4.33 | 164 | 83 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 18.2% | 16.2% | 1.9% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 103 | 83 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2025 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.54 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 82 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.