Levi Wells

P Norfolk Tides

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 216 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#469ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+Aberdeen Iron…	21	21	60	6.71	3.43	26.0%	10.5%	—	K 20.0% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.35
2025	23	MIX2 levels	25	21	96	3.48	3.27	23.0%	9.4%	—	K 18.8% · BB 9.7% · FIP 3.70
2026	24	AAABAL	8	8	36	4.50	3.82	22.6%	6.9%	—	K 19.5% · BB 6.2% · FIP 4.14
2027PROJ	25	MLBBAL	1	1	6	4.57	4.57	20.5%	9.7%	0.1
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBBAL	6	6	36	4.57	4.55	21.3%	9.5%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBBAL	8	8	45	4.56	4.57	21.4%	9.4%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$1M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.8 / P90 3.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 90%

CompsBrody McCullough (age 23) · Landon Knack (age 25) · Zack Lee (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%20.5%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%10.8%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2033	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	21	21	60	285	74	30	6	100%	2.9	20.0%	12.1%	7.9%	2.6%	6.71	4.35	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	21	21	60	285	74	30	6	100%	2.9	20.0%	12.1%	7.9%	2.6%	6.71	4.35	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	21	21	60	285	74	30	6	100%	2.9	26.0%	10.5%	15.4%	2.1%	6.71	3.43	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	96	417	96	39	7	84%	3.8	18.8%	9.7%	9.2%	1.8%	3.48	3.70	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	96	417	96	39	7	84%	3.8	18.8%	9.7%	9.2%	1.8%	3.48	3.70	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	21	96	417	96	39	7	84%	3.8	23.0%	9.4%	13.7%	1.7%	3.48	3.27	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	8	8	36	159	36	11	5	100%	4.5	19.5%	6.2%	13.2%	3.5%	4.50	4.14	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	8	8	36	159	36	11	5	100%	4.5	19.5%	6.2%	13.2%	3.5%	4.50	4.14	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	8	8	36	159	36	11	5	100%	4.5	22.6%	6.9%	15.7%	3.1%	4.50	3.82	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BAL	1	1	6	25	5	2	1	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.7%	10.8%	2.9%	4.57	4.57	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	74	312	67	30	9	100%	6.2	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	2.9%	4.50	4.48	+0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	69	290	62	27	9	100%	6.2	21.4%	9.4%	11.9%	3.0%	4.49	4.50	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	64	272	58	26	8	100%	5.9	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	3.1%	4.53	4.57	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	66	278	64	25	9	100%	6.0	23.1%	8.9%	14.2%	3.2%	4.46	4.42	+0.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	BAL	10	10	60	251	57	23	9	100%	6.0	22.7%	9.2%	13.5%	3.4%	4.54	4.60	+0.6
2033	31	MLB MLE	BAL	9	9	53	222	50	21	8	100%	5.8	22.3%	9.5%	12.8%	3.6%	4.70	4.80	+0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	36	152	32	14	5	100%	6.0	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	3.0%	4.57	4.55	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	45	190	41	18	6	100%	5.6	21.4%	9.4%	11.9%	3.1%	4.56	4.57	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	50	211	45	20	7	100%	6.2	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	3.2%	4.61	4.65	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	54	228	53	20	8	100%	6.0	23.1%	8.9%	14.2%	3.4%	4.54	4.50	+0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	52	220	50	20	8	100%	5.8	22.7%	9.2%	13.5%	3.6%	4.62	4.68	+0.5
2033	31	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	47	198	44	19	8	100%	5.9	22.3%	9.5%	12.8%	3.8%	4.79	4.89	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		47	47	284	1199	264	112	40	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.3%	12.7%	3.4%	4.62	4.26	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	186	79	28	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.3%	12.7%	3.4%	4.62	4.26	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		54	50	192	861	166	85	20	93%	3.6	19.3%	9.8%	9.5%	2.3%	4.69	4.00	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	52	200	897	173	88	21	93%	3.6	19.3%	9.8%	9.5%	2.3%	4.69	4.00	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 36 IPFIP 3.79 → 4.14 (+0.35)K% 22.6% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.64%	—	×0.860	19.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.92%	—	×0.900	6.23%
HR / BF /BF	3.14%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.46%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.79 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 75 IPFIP 2.71 → 3.18 (+0.47)K% 24.5% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.46%	—	×0.810	19.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.95%	—	×1.100	8.75%
HR / BF /BF	1.22%	÷1.248	×1.200	1.18%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).

Result: FIP 2.71 → 3.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 21 IPFIP 5.26 → 5.58 (+0.33)K% 17.8% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.78%	—	×0.860	15.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.44%	—	×0.900	13.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷0.945	×1.100	3.88%

Result: FIP 5.26 → 5.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 60 IPFIP 3.40 → 4.35 (+0.96)K% 26.0% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.96%	—	×0.770	19.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×1.150	12.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷1.026	×1.250	2.57%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 3.40 → 4.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Levi Wells (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.51	21.3%	11.8%	207	-0.06	—	—	—
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	83
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.41	21.2%	12.3%	382	+0.03	3.64	556	83
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	81
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	81
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	80
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	80
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	80
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	79
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	79
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	79
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	78
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	78
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	78
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	78
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	78
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	78
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	78
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	77
Darren Bowen R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	16.7%	9.1%	2.2%	.312	6.06	14.4%	2.5%	150	+1.98	3.82	278	77
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	64	21.8%	9.4%	1.21	4.54
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Mark Lowe ('16)	1.9	64	20.9%	9.7%	1.10	4.22
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Frank DiPino ('81-'93, 3 WAR*)	3.5	78	22.5%*	9.0%*	1.00*	4.44*