Levi Wells — OGILVIE

Levi Wells P Norfolk Tides

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 216 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.8 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 106

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%20.3%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 101 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL4040

CMD—45

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.8M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	21	21	60	285	74	30	6	100%	2.9	20.0%	12.1%	7.9%	2.5%	6.71	4.32	—
2024	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	21	21	60	285	74	30	6	100%	2.9	26.0%	10.5%	15.4%	2.1%	6.71	3.43	—
2025	23	MIX	2 levels	25	21	96	417	96	39	7	84%	3.8	18.9%	10.1%	8.8%	1.7%	3.48	3.70	—
2025	23	MIX	2 levels	25	21	96	417	96	39	7	84%	3.8	23.0%	9.4%	13.7%	1.7%	3.48	3.27	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AAA	Norfolk Tides	8	8	36	159	36	11	5	100%	4.5	19.9%	7.3%	12.7%	3.5%	4.50	4.24	+0.1
ROS	24	MLB	BAL	12	12	65	274	56	32	7	100%	5.4	20.3%	11.6%	8.8%	2.6%	4.65	4.65	+0.0
ROS	24	MLB	BAL	1	1	6	25	5	3	1	100%	6.0	20.3%	11.6%	8.8%	2.7%	4.70	4.70	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB	BAL	—	—	101	433	92	43	12	—	—	21.2%	9.9%	11.3%	2.8%	4.60	4.50	+1.1
2026 FULL	24	MLB	BAL	—	—	6	27	6	3	1	—	—	20.3%	11.6%	8.8%	2.7%	4.70	4.32	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	BAL	12	12	68	287	62	31	8	100%	5.7	21.5%	10.8%	10.6%	2.6%	4.53	4.47	+0.2
2028	26	MLB	BAL	11	11	68	287	63	31	8	100%	6.2	22.1%	10.7%	11.4%	2.6%	4.46	4.42	+0.2
2029	27	MLB	BAL	11	11	67	283	63	30	8	100%	6.1	22.1%	10.7%	11.5%	2.7%	4.45	4.45	+0.2
2030	28	MLB	BAL	11	11	65	274	60	30	8	100%	5.9	22.0%	10.8%	11.3%	2.8%	4.50	4.53	+0.1
2031	29	MLB	BAL	10	10	62	262	57	29	8	100%	6.2	21.8%	11.0%	10.8%	3.0%	4.60	4.66	-0.0
2032	30	MLB	BAL	10	10	58	247	53	28	8	100%	5.8	21.4%	11.3%	10.1%	3.2%	4.74	4.84	-0.2
2033	31	MLB	BAL	9	9	54	230	48	27	8	100%	6.1	21.0%	11.7%	9.4%	3.4%	4.92	5.04	-0.3
2027	25	MLB	BAL	6	6	33	139	30	15	4	100%	5.5	21.5%	10.8%	10.6%	2.7%	4.58	4.52	+0.0
2028	26	MLB	BAL	8	8	47	198	44	21	5	100%	5.9	22.1%	10.7%	11.4%	2.7%	4.51	4.47	+0.0
2029	27	MLB	BAL	9	9	53	224	49	24	6	100%	5.9	22.1%	10.7%	11.5%	2.8%	4.51	4.51	+0.0
2030	28	MLB	BAL	9	9	55	232	51	25	7	100%	6.1	22.0%	10.8%	11.3%	2.9%	4.56	4.59	-0.0
2031	29	MLB	BAL	9	9	55	232	51	26	7	100%	6.1	21.8%	11.0%	10.8%	3.1%	4.66	4.72	-0.1
2032	30	MLB	BAL	9	9	53	224	48	25	7	100%	5.9	21.4%	11.3%	10.1%	3.3%	4.81	4.91	-0.2
2033	31	MLB	BAL	8	8	50	211	44	25	7	100%	6.2	21.0%	11.7%	9.4%	3.5%	4.99	5.11	-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			59	59	352	1488	323	164	45	100%	6.0	21.7%	11.0%	10.7%	3.0%	4.66	4.32	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	183	93	26	100%	5.9	21.7%	11.0%	10.7%	3.0%	4.66	4.32	+2.5
Career	—			54	50	192	861	168	88	20	93%	3.6	19.5%	10.3%	9.2%	2.3%	4.69	4.00	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—			56	52	200	897	175	92	20	93%	3.6	19.5%	10.3%	9.2%	2.3%	4.69	4.00	+3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Levi Wells (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	20.3%	11.6%	2.6%	—	4.45	21.9%	11.2%	203	-0.20	—	—	—
Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP	4.24	18.9%	10.3%	2.6%	.329	4.33	21.3%	10.9%	132	+0.09	2.63	213	86
Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP	3.87	23.2%	10.7%	2.5%	.239	5.71	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.84	3.87	325	85
David Lebron R 2027 · 4.18 FIP	25	SP-	4.18	18.6%	14.2%	1.6%	.336	5.07	26.7%	12.0%	62	+0.89	4.18	144	82
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP-	3.87	20.4%	9.6%	2.3%	.300	4.37	19.6%	9.8%	143	+0.50	3.87	247	82
Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	19.5%	10.5%	2.9%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.01	3.42	237	81
Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.39 FIP	24	SP	4.39	16.1%	11.4%	2.2%	.309	4.74	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.35	4.39	353	81
Cole Sands R 2026 · 3.57 FIP	24	SP	3.57	23.3%	11.5%	1.8%	.269	3.64	25.1%	17.3%	216	+0.07	2.28	473	81
Yoel Tejeda Jr. R 2025 · 3.66 FIP	23	SP	3.66	21.5%	12.3%	1.5%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	158	81
Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.26 FIP	24	SP	4.26	19.3%	14.1%	1.8%	.258	4.83	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.57	4.26	151	80
Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.88 FIP	23	SP	4.88	16.5%	9.4%	3.6%	.288	5.29	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.41	4.52	340	80
Logan Martin R 2026 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP	4.08	15.9%	11.0%	1.7%	.266	5.68	20.8%	8.1%	29	+1.60	3.93	223	80
Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.06 FIP	25	SP	4.06	17.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.300	4.86	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.80	4.06	120	80
Trent Palmer R 2025 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	22.0%	10.4%	4.2%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	-0.02	3.51	140	80
David Griffin R 2027 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	19.2%	11.9%	2.8%	.279	5.47	15.6%	5.5%	168	+0.95	4.52	239	79
Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.22 FIP	24	SP-	5.22	17.5%	12.2%	3.7%	.293	4.57	22.2%	10.9%	274	-0.65	4.00	512	79
Burch Smith R 2029 · 3.94 FIP	27	SP	3.94	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.41	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.47	3.39	382	79
Alejandro Martinez R 2028 · 4.24 FIP	26	SP-	4.24	17.5%	10.9%	2.3%	.393	4.44	9.2%	3.9%	53	+0.20	4.24	166	79
Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP-	3.93	20.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.287	4.58	19.4%	11.0%	140	+0.65	3.90	202	79
Ryan Bergert R 2026 · 4.00 FIP	24	SP	4.00	16.9%	8.7%	2.2%	.317	4.33	21.6%	11.4%	121	+0.33	3.61	428	79
J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.62 FIP	24	SP	4.62	16.1%	14.2%	2.0%	.283	5.64	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+1.02	4.62	195	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8	64	21.5%	11.0%	1.10	4.60
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Miguel Castro ('23)	7	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	7	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Joe Kelly ('24)	9	56	24.6%	10.3%	0.81	4.40
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67