Levi Wells — OGILVIE

Levi Wells P Norfolk Tides

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 216 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.0 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%20.1%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL4040

CMD—45

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$5M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$6M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	21	21	60	285	74	30	6	100%	2.9	20.0%	12.1%	7.9%	2.6%	6.71	4.35	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	21	21	60	285	74	30	6	100%	2.9	20.0%	12.1%	7.9%	2.6%	6.71	4.35	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	21	21	60	285	74	30	6	100%	2.9	26.0%	10.5%	15.4%	2.1%	6.71	3.43	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	96	417	96	39	7	84%	3.8	18.7%	9.7%	9.1%	1.8%	3.48	3.71	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	96	417	96	39	7	84%	3.8	18.7%	9.7%	9.1%	1.8%	3.48	3.71	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	21	96	417	96	39	7	84%	3.8	23.0%	9.4%	13.7%	1.7%	3.48	3.27	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	8	8	36	159	36	11	5	100%	4.5	18.8%	6.2%	12.6%	3.5%	4.50	4.20	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	8	8	36	159	36	11	5	100%	4.5	18.8%	6.2%	12.6%	3.5%	4.50	4.20	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	BAL	8	8	36	159	36	11	5	100%	4.5	22.6%	6.9%	15.7%	3.1%	4.50	3.79	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	BAL	1	1	6	24	5	3	1	100%	5.7	20.1%	11.0%	9.1%	2.6%	4.61	4.61	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	42	183	41	14	6	—	—	22.3%	7.5%	14.9%	3.1%	4.51	4.26	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	87	368	78	38	10	100%	5.8	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	2.6%	4.50	4.44	+0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	87	368	80	37	10	100%	5.8	21.8%	10.1%	11.7%	2.7%	4.42	4.38	+0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	86	363	79	36	10	100%	6.1	21.8%	10.0%	11.8%	2.7%	4.41	4.41	+0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	83	352	76	36	10	100%	6.0	21.7%	10.1%	11.6%	2.8%	4.46	4.49	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	80	336	79	32	10	100%	6.1	23.4%	9.6%	13.9%	3.0%	4.39	4.35	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	75	316	73	31	10	100%	6.2	23.1%	9.8%	13.2%	3.2%	4.47	4.53	+0.3
2033	31	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	70	295	67	30	10	100%	5.8	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	3.4%	4.63	4.73	+0.1
2034	32	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	65	273	61	29	10	100%	5.9	22.2%	10.6%	11.6%	3.7%	4.83	4.96	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	42	177	38	18	5	100%	6.0	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	2.8%	4.57	4.51	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	60	253	55	26	7	100%	6.0	21.8%	10.1%	11.7%	2.8%	4.49	4.45	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	68	287	63	29	8	100%	6.2	21.8%	10.0%	11.8%	2.9%	4.48	4.48	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	71	300	65	30	9	100%	5.9	21.7%	10.1%	11.6%	3.0%	4.53	4.56	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	70	296	69	28	9	100%	5.8	23.4%	9.6%	13.9%	3.1%	4.46	4.42	+0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	68	287	66	28	10	100%	6.2	23.1%	9.8%	13.2%	3.3%	4.55	4.61	+0.3
2033	31	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	64	270	61	28	10	100%	5.8	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	3.6%	4.71	4.81	+0.1
2034	32	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	60	253	56	27	10	100%	6.0	22.2%	10.6%	11.6%	3.8%	4.92	5.05	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		84	84	504	2128	474	214	67	100%	6.0	22.3%	10.1%	12.2%	3.2%	4.58	4.23	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	188	85	27	100%	6.0	22.3%	10.1%	12.2%	3.2%	4.58	4.23	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		54	50	192	861	165	85	20	93%	3.6	19.2%	9.8%	9.3%	2.3%	4.69	4.01	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	52	200	897	172	88	21	93%	3.6	19.2%	9.8%	9.3%	2.3%	4.69	4.01	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Levi Wells (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	20.1%	11.0%	2.6%	—	4.41	21.6%	11.5%	260	-0.20	—	—	—
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	87
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	85
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	85
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	85
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	84
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	82
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	82
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	82
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	81
C.J. Culpepper R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	21	SP	3.55	18.7%	10.1%	1.4%	.291	4.14	18.9%	7.4%	191	+0.59	3.30	277	81
Cole Sands R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	23.3%	11.5%	1.9%	.269	3.55	24.9%	17.3%	216	-0.12	2.28	474	81
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	81
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	81
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	81
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	81
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	81
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	81
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	80
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	80
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	78	22.0%	10.2%	1.14	4.51
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93