Jaxon Wiggins — OGILVIE

Jaxon Wiggins P Iowa Cubs

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.1 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.25

FIP4.25

K%26.1%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%13.2%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL4045

CMD4045

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$6M		$11M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	60	254	71	36	4	100%	3.3	22.5%	12.8%	9.6%	1.3%	4.37	3.53	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	60	254	71	36	4	100%	3.3	22.5%	12.8%	9.6%	1.3%	4.37	3.53	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	18	60	254	71	36	4	100%	3.3	28.0%	14.2%	13.8%	1.6%	4.37	3.40	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	18	78	313	97	36	4	95%	4.1	24.5%	12.5%	12.0%	0.9%	2.19	3.11	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	18	78	313	97	36	4	95%	4.1	24.5%	12.5%	12.0%	0.9%	2.19	3.11	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	18	78	313	97	36	4	95%	4.1	31.0%	11.5%	19.5%	1.3%	2.19	2.66	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	20	11	41	191	48	34	6	55%	2.0	20.8%	17.9%	2.9%	2.8%	7.02	5.16	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	20	11	41	191	48	34	6	55%	2.0	20.8%	17.9%	2.9%	2.8%	7.02	5.16	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	CHC	1	1	2	9	2	1	0	100%	2.0	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	4.50	2.63	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	CHC	3	3	7	26	7	2	2	100%	2.4	26.9%	7.7%	19.2%	7.7%	2.45	6.02	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	CHC	16	7	32	156	39	31	4	44%	2.0	25.0%	19.9%	5.1%	2.6%	8.24	4.91	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CHC	1	1	8	32	8	4	1	100%	7.6	26.1%	12.8%	13.2%	2.4%	4.25	4.25	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	49	223	56	38	7	—	—	25.3%	17.1%	8.2%	3.0%	6.59	5.02	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CHC	19	19	109	461	120	53	11	100%	5.7	26.1%	11.6%	14.4%	2.5%	4.17	4.12	+1.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	CHC	20	20	121	511	133	58	13	100%	6.1	25.9%	11.3%	14.7%	2.5%	4.13	4.10	+1.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	CHC	20	20	119	504	130	56	13	100%	6.0	25.7%	11.2%	14.6%	2.6%	4.15	4.15	+1.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	CHC	19	19	116	489	125	55	13	100%	6.1	25.5%	11.2%	14.3%	2.7%	4.20	4.24	+0.9
2031	29	MLB MLE	CHC	18	18	110	467	118	54	13	100%	6.1	25.3%	11.5%	13.8%	2.9%	4.30	4.37	+0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	CHC	17	17	104	439	109	52	13	100%	6.1	24.9%	11.8%	13.2%	3.1%	4.45	4.55	+0.4
2033	31	MLB MLE	CHC	16	16	97	409	100	50	13	100%	6.1	24.5%	12.1%	12.4%	3.3%	4.63	4.75	+0.2
2034	32	MLB MLE	CHC	15	15	90	378	91	47	13	100%	6.0	24.1%	12.5%	11.6%	3.5%	4.84	4.97	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	CHC	9	9	53	224	58	26	5	100%	5.9	26.1%	11.6%	14.4%	2.4%	4.12	4.07	+0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	CHC	14	14	84	355	92	40	9	100%	6.0	25.9%	11.3%	14.7%	2.4%	4.08	4.05	+0.8
2029	27	MLB CTX	CHC	16	16	94	397	102	44	10	100%	5.9	25.7%	11.2%	14.6%	2.5%	4.10	4.10	+0.8
2030	28	MLB CTX	CHC	16	16	99	418	107	47	11	100%	6.2	25.5%	11.2%	14.3%	2.6%	4.14	4.18	+0.8
2031	29	MLB CTX	CHC	16	16	98	414	105	47	11	100%	6.1	25.3%	11.5%	13.8%	2.8%	4.24	4.31	+0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	CHC	16	16	94	397	99	47	12	100%	5.9	24.9%	11.8%	13.2%	2.9%	4.39	4.49	+0.4
2033	31	MLB CTX	CHC	15	15	89	376	92	46	12	100%	5.9	24.5%	12.1%	12.4%	3.2%	4.56	4.68	+0.2
2034	32	MLB CTX	CHC	14	14	83	350	84	44	12	100%	5.9	24.1%	12.5%	11.6%	3.4%	4.77	4.90	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		116	116	694	2930	739	341	82	100%	6.0	25.2%	11.6%	13.6%	2.8%	4.30	3.97	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	213	98	24	100%	6.0	25.2%	11.6%	13.6%	2.8%	4.30	3.97	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		57	47	179	758	173	106	11	82%	3.1	22.9%	14.0%	8.9%	1.5%	4.03	3.77	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	53	200	849	194	119	13	82%	3.1	22.9%	14.0%	8.9%	1.5%	4.03	3.77	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jaxon Wiggins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	26.1%	12.8%	2.4%	—	4.12	25.9%	14.6%	350	-0.13	—	—	—
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	682	85
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	82
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	81
Tyler Guilfoil R 2023 · 3.18 FIP	23	SP-	3.18	26.0%	12.3%	1.3%	.305	5.52	17.8%	4.4%	190	+2.34	3.18	274	81
Yosver Zulueta R 2022 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP-	3.19	27.1%	14.0%	1.1%	.299	3.64	23.5%	11.2%	195	+0.45	3.19	286	79
Chase Silseth R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP-	3.80	23.8%	10.8%	2.4%	.264	4.24	20.6%	8.1%	122	+0.44	3.30	332	79
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	79
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	79
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	78
David Festa R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	24.4%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.75	26.7%	18.6%	209	+0.06	3.67	405	77
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	76
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	76
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	76
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	75
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	74
Kyle Bradish R 2021 · 3.60 FIP	24	SP	3.60	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.30	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.30	2.20	750	74
Hayden Birdsong R 2023 · 3.29 FIP	21	SP	3.29	26.7%	11.9%	1.7%	.320	4.77	24.4%	11.6%	225	+1.48	3.29	326	74
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	74
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	74
Matt Ball R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP-	4.72	21.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	312	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.8	106	25.4%	11.7%	1.09	4.33
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98