Jaxon Wiggins P Iowa Cubs
Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.7 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 97
ERA4.21
FIP4.21
K%26.1%
BB%12.4%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
K: +0.7 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+1KBB: -1.1 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-1BBCONTACT: -0.2 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-0CONTACTSTAM: +8.5 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+9STAMTotal WAR: +0.84 (85 IP)+0.8WAR
0.00.51.00.00.20.20.20.2+$1M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP55
STUF5055
CTRL4045
CMD4045
K†6060
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2027
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.7M+$0.0M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.7M+$0.0M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2030Arb-1$3M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M (cut)
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $2M $3M +$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202422MIX3 levels18186025471364100%3.322.5%12.8%9.6%1.4%4.373.61
202422MIX3 levels18186025471364100%3.328.0%14.2%13.8%1.6%4.373.40
202523MIX3 levels1918783139736495%4.124.5%12.5%12.0%0.9%2.193.12
202523MIX3 levels1918783139736495%4.131.0%11.5%19.5%1.3%2.192.66
▸ 2026 Season
202624AAAIowa Cubs77208523113100%2.924.6%16.8%7.8%2.2%4.954.35+0.0
ROS24MLBCHC12126527471347100%5.426.1%12.4%13.6%2.5%4.214.21+0.3
ROS24MLBCHC11625731100%6.026.1%12.4%13.6%2.5%4.234.23+0.0
2026 TOT24MLBCHC8535994451026.3%12.6%13.7%2.7%4.384.24+0.8
2026 FULL24MLBCHC62773126.1%12.4%13.6%2.5%4.233.84+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202725MLBCHC19191104621205212100%5.826.0%11.3%14.7%2.5%4.144.09+1.7
202826MLBCHC20201225131335613100%6.125.9%11.0%14.9%2.5%4.104.08+1.9
202927MLBCHC20201205051305513100%6.025.7%10.9%14.8%2.6%4.114.12+1.8
203028MLBCHC19191164901255413100%6.125.5%11.0%14.5%2.7%4.174.21+1.6
203129MLBCHC18181114681185213100%6.225.3%11.2%14.1%2.9%4.274.34+1.4
203230MLBCHC17171044401105114100%6.124.9%11.5%13.4%3.1%4.424.52+1.1
203331MLBCHC1616974101014914100%6.124.5%11.8%12.7%3.3%4.604.72+0.7
203432MLBCHC151590380914613100%6.024.1%12.2%11.8%3.5%4.814.95+0.2
203533MLBCHC141482348824413100%5.923.6%12.7%10.9%3.8%5.045.20-0.2
202725MLBCHC995322458256100%5.926.0%11.3%14.7%2.5%4.164.11+0.3
202826MLBCHC14148435592399100%6.025.9%11.0%14.9%2.6%4.124.10+0.9
202927MLBCHC1616954011034411100%5.925.7%10.9%14.8%2.6%4.134.14+1.3
203028MLBCHC1616994181074612100%6.225.5%11.0%14.5%2.8%4.194.23+1.3
203129MLBCHC1616984141054612100%6.125.3%11.2%14.1%2.9%4.294.36+1.1
203230MLBCHC161694397994612100%5.924.9%11.5%13.4%3.1%4.444.54+0.8
203331MLBCHC151589376924413100%5.924.5%11.8%12.7%3.3%4.624.74+0.4
203432MLBCHC141483350844313100%5.924.1%12.2%11.8%3.6%4.834.97+0.1
203533MLBCHC131377325774113100%5.923.6%12.7%10.9%3.9%5.075.23-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career1311317793290824378100100%5.925.1%11.5%13.6%3.0%4.424.11+11.8
/ 200 IP34342008442129726100%6.025.1%11.5%13.6%3.0%4.424.11+3.0
Career444315865215586898%3.623.7%13.2%10.5%1.3%3.373.47+3.6
/ 200 IP56552008271961091198%3.623.7%13.2%10.5%1.3%3.373.47+4.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Jaxon Wiggins (OGILVIE) 4.21 26.1%12.4%2.5% 4.10 25.9%14.8%351 -0.11
Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 3.59 FIP 24 SP 3.59 26.4%10.6%2.5%.333 3.20 24.9%17.2%345 -0.39 2.15 702 83
Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.87 FIP 24 SP 3.87 23.2%10.7%2.5%.239 5.71 20.0%6.1%278 +1.84 3.87 325 81
Cole Sands R 2026 · 3.57 FIP 24 SP 3.57 23.3%11.5%1.8%.269 3.64 25.1%17.3%216 +0.07 2.28 473 80
Yariel Rodríguez R 2029 · 3.80 FIP 27 SP 3.80 25.1%11.8%2.4%.275 3.77 24.2%12.3%89 -0.03 2.60 196 80
Alex Pham R 2026 · 3.85 FIP 24 SP 3.85 22.6%11.1%2.3%.284 3.63 23.5%11.8%79 -0.22 3.48 331 79
Drew Rasmussen R 2026 · 3.62 FIP 24 SP- 3.62 24.6%12.6%1.8%.312 3.26 22.7%16.2%237 -0.36 1.21 621 79
Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.65 FIP 24 SP 3.65 24.3%11.4%2.1%.280 6.01 18.9%5.5%56 +2.36 3.65 287 77
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.75 FIP 22 SP 4.75 23.2%13.6%3.4%.242 4.75 119 77
Carson Ragsdale R 2025 · 4.20 FIP 23 SP 4.20 25.0%10.7%3.4%.349 4.27 25.2%14.2%148 +0.07 1.96 352 75
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP 24 SP- 3.87 20.4%9.6%2.3%.300 4.37 19.6%9.8%143 +0.50 3.87 247 75
Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 3.69 FIP 23 SP 3.69 25.1%7.5%3.2%.256 5.06 20.7%11.0%89 +1.37 3.69 333 75
Will Warren R 2026 · 4.16 FIP 24 SP 4.16 23.3%11.4%2.9%.287 4.01 23.9%15.4%393 -0.15 3.80 651 75
Shawn Dubin R 2025 · 3.04 FIP 23 SP- 3.04 24.3%11.5%0.9%.281 3.24 29.6%17.6%108 +0.20 3.04 341 75
Yoel Tejeda Jr. R 2025 · 3.66 FIP 23 SP 3.66 21.5%12.3%1.5%.330 3.46 158 75
Sam Benschoter R 2026 · 3.96 FIP 24 SP- 3.96 26.3%9.2%3.5%.344 5.03 18.9%8.4%306 +1.07 3.58 426 75
Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.29 FIP 24 SP- 3.29 23.4%11.9%1.2%.316 4.60 23.0%9.5%109 +1.31 3.29 142 74
Trent Palmer R 2025 · 4.85 FIP 23 SP 4.85 22.0%10.4%4.2%.284 4.83 12.8%-9.4%22 -0.02 3.51 140 74
Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.20 FIP 24 SP- 4.20 23.0%8.8%3.5%.359 4.87 17.6%2.0%22 +0.67 4.20 118 73
Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 4.20 FIP 24 SP 4.20 21.9%11.4%2.8%.333 3.98 26.8%18.7%54 -0.22 3.63 209 73
Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP 24 SP 4.24 18.9%10.3%2.6%.329 4.33 21.3%10.9%132 +0.09 2.63 213 73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION1010425.2%11.5%1.124.36
Patrick Sandoval ('24)68922.7%10.1%0.924.01
Jon Gray ('24)1012223.4%7.8%1.154.45
Rich Hill ('23)910425.0%8.0%1.123.65
Vince Velasquez ('23)98524.9%9.3%1.484.88
Mike Clevinger ('23)711324.8%8.7%1.073.45
James Paxton ('24)810625.8%7.7%1.123.89