Jaxon Wiggins

P Iowa Cubs

Age 25 RHP 6'6" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033

OGV OFP35OGV rank#485ETA2028MLB%14%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX3 levels	18	18	60	4.37	3.40	28.0%	14.2%	—	K 22.5% · BB 12.8% · FIP 3.53
2025	23	MIX3 levels	19	18	78	2.19	2.66	31.0%	11.5%	—	K 24.5% · BB 12.5% · FIP 3.11
2026	24	MIX3 levels	22	11	43	6.75	4.97	25.5%	17.3%	—	K 21.9% · BB 17.3% · FIP 4.95
2027PROJ	25	MLBCHC	2	2	9	4.71	4.71	24.7%	14.5%	0.1
2028PROJ50% MLB	26	MLBCHC	6	6	35	4.60	4.59	24.8%	13.9%	0.3
2029PROJ67% MLB	27	MLBCHC	7	7	44	4.59	4.60	24.5%	13.5%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$2M2032Ext$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 3.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsSean Mooney (age 24) · Luis Quiñones (age 25) · Andrew Politi (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%24.7%

BB%14.5%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP66

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	60	254	71	36	4	100%	3.3	22.5%	12.8%	9.6%	1.3%	4.37	3.53	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	60	254	71	36	4	100%	3.3	22.5%	12.8%	9.6%	1.3%	4.37	3.53	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	18	60	254	71	36	4	100%	3.3	28.0%	14.2%	13.8%	1.6%	4.37	3.40	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	18	78	313	97	36	4	95%	4.1	24.5%	12.5%	12.0%	0.9%	2.19	3.11	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	18	78	313	97	36	4	95%	4.1	24.5%	12.5%	12.0%	0.9%	2.19	3.11	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	18	78	313	97	36	4	95%	4.1	31.0%	11.5%	19.5%	1.3%	2.19	2.66	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	11	43	196	50	34	6	50%	1.9	21.9%	17.3%	4.6%	2.7%	6.75	4.95	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	11	43	196	50	34	6	50%	1.9	21.9%	17.3%	4.6%	2.7%	6.75	4.95	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	11	43	196	50	34	6	50%	1.9	25.5%	17.3%	8.2%	3.1%	6.75	4.97	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CHC	2	2	9	38	9	6	1	100%	4.5	24.7%	14.5%	10.2%	2.7%	4.71	4.71	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	70	296	73	41	8	100%	5.8	24.8%	13.9%	10.8%	2.7%	4.66	4.65	+0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	64	272	67	37	8	100%	5.9	24.5%	13.5%	11.0%	2.8%	4.65	4.66	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	66	281	74	35	8	100%	6.0	26.3%	12.6%	13.7%	2.9%	4.52	4.45	+0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	62	260	67	33	8	100%	6.2	26.0%	12.7%	13.3%	3.1%	4.55	4.58	+0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	CHC	9	9	55	234	60	30	8	100%	6.2	25.6%	13.0%	12.6%	3.3%	4.67	4.76	+0.4
2033	31	MLB MLE	CHC	8	8	49	206	52	28	7	100%	6.1	25.2%	13.4%	11.9%	3.5%	4.84	4.96	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	35	148	37	21	4	100%	5.8	24.8%	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	4.60	4.59	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	44	186	46	25	5	100%	6.3	24.5%	13.5%	11.0%	2.7%	4.59	4.60	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	CHC	9	9	52	220	58	28	6	100%	5.8	26.3%	12.6%	13.7%	2.8%	4.46	4.39	+0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	51	215	56	27	6	100%	6.4	26.0%	12.7%	13.3%	2.9%	4.49	4.52	+0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	48	203	52	26	6	100%	6.0	25.6%	13.0%	12.6%	3.1%	4.60	4.69	+0.4
2033	31	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	44	186	47	25	6	100%	6.3	25.2%	13.4%	11.9%	3.4%	4.77	4.89	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	46	274	1157	295	152	34	100%	6.0	25.5%	13.1%	12.3%	2.9%	4.58	4.23	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	215	111	25	100%	6.0	25.5%	13.1%	12.3%	2.9%	4.58	4.23	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		59	47	180	763	177	106	11	80%	3.1	23.2%	13.9%	9.3%	1.5%	3.99	3.72	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	52	200	846	196	117	13	80%	3.1	23.2%	13.9%	9.3%	1.5%	3.99	3.72	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 33 IPFIP 4.75 → 4.95 (+0.19)K% 25.5% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.47%	—	×0.860	21.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.25%	—	×0.900	17.33%
HR / BF /BF	2.48%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.73%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.75 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+South Bend Cubs · 7 IPFIP 6.02 → 7.75 (+1.72)K% 26.9% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.92%	—	×0.770	20.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.150	8.85%
HR / BF /BF	7.69%	÷1.000	×1.250	9.62%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.02 → 7.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAKnoxville Smokies · 42 IPFIP 2.07 → 2.82 (+0.75)K% 31.7% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.71%	—	×0.810	25.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.37%	—	×1.100	11.40%
HR / BF /BF	0.61%	÷0.911	×1.200	0.80%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.07 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+South Bend Cubs · 26 IPFIP 2.70 → 3.57 (+0.88)K% 29.5% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.52%	—	×0.770	22.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.38%	—	×1.150	14.24%
HR / BF /BF	0.95%	÷1.106	×1.250	1.08%

Result: FIP 2.70 → 3.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 10 IPFIP 4.64 → 4.78 (+0.15)K% 31.8% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.82%	—	×0.860	27.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×0.900	12.27%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.125	×1.100	4.44%

Result: FIP 4.64 → 4.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 32 IPFIP 3.32 → 4.42 (+1.10)K% 27.7% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.74%	—	×0.770	21.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.87%	—	×1.150	15.95%
HR / BF /BF	1.46%	÷0.909	×1.250	2.01%

Result: FIP 3.32 → 4.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 21 IPFIP 1.12 → 1.99 (+0.87)K% 32.9% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.91%	—	×0.740	24.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.33%	—	×1.180	7.47%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.908	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 1.12 → 1.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Cubs · 7 IPFIP 8.43 → 11.37 (+2.93)K% 18.4% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.42%	—	×0.680	12.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	31.58%	—	×1.250	39.47%
HR / BF /BF	5.26%	÷0.935	×1.400	7.88%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 8.43 → 11.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jaxon Wiggins (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.59	25.2%	11.9%	201	-0.12	—	—	—
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	81
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.80	22.4%	10.8%	160	+0.03	3.69	326	79
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	77
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	76
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	74
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	74
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	73
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	73
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	73
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	73
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	72
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	72
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	71
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.69	18.9%	3.2%	77	+0.02	3.95	270	71
Patrick Weigel R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	25	SP-	5.00	18.7%	12.9%	3.4%	.197	4.88	20.0%	4.0%	105	-0.12	2.64	566	71
Spencer Howard R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	25	SP	3.76	24.5%	11.3%	2.4%	.311	4.82	24.1%	15.1%	208	+1.06	2.33	484	70
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	70
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	70
Pierce Johnson R 2016 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	22.9%	15.7%	3.4%	.321	3.55	24.8%	13.4%	121	-1.48	2.75	598	70
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	62	25.3%	13.4%	1.15	4.65
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*