Jaxon Wiggins
P
Iowa Cubs
Age 24
RHP
6'6" / 225 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.7 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 97
ERA4.21
FIP4.21
K%26.1%
BB%12.4%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 18 | 60 | 254 | 71 | 36 | 4 | 100% | 3.3 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 9.6% | 1.4% | 4.37 | 3.61 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 18 | 60 | 254 | 71 | 36 | 4 | 100% | 3.3 | 28.0% | 14.2% | 13.8% | 1.6% | 4.37 | 3.40 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 18 | 78 | 313 | 97 | 36 | 4 | 95% | 4.1 | 24.5% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 0.9% | 2.19 | 3.12 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 18 | 78 | 313 | 97 | 36 | 4 | 95% | 4.1 | 31.0% | 11.5% | 19.5% | 1.3% | 2.19 | 2.66 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 7 | 7 | 20 | 85 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 2.9 | 24.6% | 16.8% | 7.8% | 2.2% | 4.95 | 4.35 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 71 | 34 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 26.1% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 2.5% | 4.21 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CHC | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.1% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 2.5% | 4.23 | 4.23 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 85 | 359 | 94 | 45 | 10 | — | — | 26.3% | 12.6% | 13.7% | 2.7% | 4.38 | 4.24 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 6 | 27 | 7 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 26.1% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 2.5% | 4.23 | 3.84 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 19 | 110 | 462 | 120 | 52 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.0% | 11.3% | 14.7% | 2.5% | 4.14 | 4.09 | +1.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 20 | 20 | 122 | 513 | 133 | 56 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.9% | 11.0% | 14.9% | 2.5% | 4.10 | 4.08 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 20 | 20 | 120 | 505 | 130 | 55 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.7% | 10.9% | 14.8% | 2.6% | 4.11 | 4.12 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 125 | 54 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.5% | 11.0% | 14.5% | 2.7% | 4.17 | 4.21 | +1.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 18 | 18 | 111 | 468 | 118 | 52 | 13 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.3% | 11.2% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.34 | +1.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 17 | 17 | 104 | 440 | 110 | 51 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.9% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 97 | 410 | 101 | 49 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.5% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.72 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 90 | 380 | 91 | 46 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.1% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.95 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 82 | 348 | 82 | 44 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.6% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 3.8% | 5.04 | 5.20 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 58 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.0% | 11.3% | 14.7% | 2.5% | 4.16 | 4.11 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 92 | 39 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.9% | 11.0% | 14.9% | 2.6% | 4.12 | 4.10 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 95 | 401 | 103 | 44 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.7% | 10.9% | 14.8% | 2.6% | 4.13 | 4.14 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 99 | 418 | 107 | 46 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.5% | 11.0% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.23 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 98 | 414 | 105 | 46 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.3% | 11.2% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.36 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 94 | 397 | 99 | 46 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.9% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.54 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 89 | 376 | 92 | 44 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.5% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 4.74 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 83 | 350 | 84 | 43 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.1% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 4.83 | 4.97 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 77 | 325 | 77 | 41 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.6% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 3.9% | 5.07 | 5.23 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 131 | 131 | 779 | 3290 | 824 | 378 | 100 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.1% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.11 | +11.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 212 | 97 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.1% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.11 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 44 | 43 | 158 | 652 | 155 | 86 | 8 | 98% | 3.6 | 23.7% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 1.3% | 3.37 | 3.47 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 55 | 200 | 827 | 196 | 109 | 11 | 98% | 3.6 | 23.7% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 1.3% | 3.37 | 3.47 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jaxon Wiggins (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.21 | 26.1% | 12.4% | 2.5% | — | 4.10 | 25.9% | 14.8% | 351 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.59 | 26.4% | 10.6% | 2.5% | .333 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 17.2% | 345 | -0.39 | 2.15 | 702 | 83 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 81 |
| Cole Sands R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.57 | 23.3% | 11.5% | 1.8% | .269 | 3.64 | 25.1% | 17.3% | 216 | +0.07 | 2.28 | 473 | 80 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2029 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.80 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .275 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 12.3% | 89 | -0.03 | 2.60 | 196 | 80 |
| Alex Pham R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.85 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.63 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 79 | -0.22 | 3.48 | 331 | 79 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.62 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.26 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 237 | -0.36 | 1.21 | 621 | 79 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.65 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 2.1% | .280 | 6.01 | 18.9% | 5.5% | 56 | +2.36 | 3.65 | 287 | 77 |
| Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.75 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 119 | 77 |
| Carson Ragsdale R 2025 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.20 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .349 | 4.27 | 25.2% | 14.2% | 148 | +0.07 | 1.96 | 352 | 75 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 75 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.69 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .256 | 5.06 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.37 | 3.69 | 333 | 75 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.16 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .287 | 4.01 | 23.9% | 15.4% | 393 | -0.15 | 3.80 | 651 | 75 |
| Shawn Dubin R 2025 · 3.04 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.04 | 24.3% | 11.5% | 0.9% | .281 | 3.24 | 29.6% | 17.6% | 108 | +0.20 | 3.04 | 341 | 75 |
| Yoel Tejeda Jr. R 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.66 | 21.5% | 12.3% | 1.5% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 158 | 75 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 75 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.29 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .316 | 4.60 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +1.31 | 3.29 | 142 | 74 |
| Trent Palmer R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 74 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.20 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .359 | 4.87 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.67 | 4.20 | 118 | 73 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.20 | 21.9% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.98 | 26.8% | 18.7% | 54 | -0.22 | 3.63 | 209 | 73 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 104 | 25.2% | 11.5% | 1.12 | 4.36 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Vince Velasquez ('23) | 9 | 85 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 1.48 | 4.88 |
| Mike Clevinger ('23) | 7 | 113 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 1.07 | 3.45 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |