Nolan DeVos

P Asheville Tourists

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	MIX2 levels	25	15	99	3.19	3.30	28.1%	12.0%	—	K 21.1% · BB 14.0% · FIP 4.21
2025	24	MIX2 levels	4	4	15	3.68	5.42	21.3%	11.5%	—	K 12.3% · BB 13.8% · FIP 5.92
2026	25	MIX2 levels	24	20	100	4.88	4.54	25.3%	9.2%	—	K 19.8% · BB 10.4% · FIP 5.63
2027PROJ	26	MLBHOU	—	—	0	5.09	5.09	20.2%	10.5%	—
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBHOU	4	4	27	5.03	5.05	20.4%	10.3%	0.1
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBHOU	7	7	40	5.03	5.07	20.4%	10.2%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Carlos Torres (age 26) · Jake Walters (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%20.2%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%9.8%

Proj IP49

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	2	14	60	22	9	0	33%	2.4	36.7%	15.0%	21.7%	0.0%	1.88	1.90	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	2	14	60	22	9	0	33%	2.4	36.7%	15.0%	21.7%	0.0%	1.88	1.91	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	15	99	417	117	50	8	60%	3.9	21.1%	14.0%	7.1%	2.0%	3.19	4.21	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	15	99	417	117	50	8	60%	3.9	28.1%	12.0%	16.1%	1.9%	3.19	3.30	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	15	61	13	7	3	100%	3.7	12.3%	13.8%	-1.5%	3.9%	3.68	5.92	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	15	61	13	7	3	100%	3.7	12.3%	13.8%	-1.5%	3.9%	3.68	5.92	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	4	15	61	13	7	3	100%	3.7	21.3%	11.5%	9.8%	4.9%	3.68	5.42	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	100	447	113	41	19	83%	4.2	19.8%	10.4%	9.4%	5.3%	4.88	5.63	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	100	447	113	41	19	83%	4.2	19.8%	10.4%	9.4%	5.3%	4.88	5.63	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	100	447	113	41	19	83%	4.2	25.3%	9.2%	16.1%	4.3%	4.88	4.54	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	HOU	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.2%	10.5%	9.8%	3.6%	5.09	5.09	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	73	308	63	32	11	100%	6.1	20.4%	10.3%	10.1%	3.6%	5.03	5.05	+0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	67	283	58	29	10	100%	6.1	20.4%	10.2%	10.2%	3.7%	5.03	5.07	+0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	62	260	53	27	10	100%	6.2	20.2%	10.3%	9.9%	3.8%	5.09	5.16	+0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	61	258	57	25	10	100%	6.1	21.9%	9.8%	12.2%	4.0%	5.05	5.05	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	HOU	4	4	27	114	23	12	4	100%	6.8	20.4%	10.3%	10.1%	3.6%	5.03	5.05	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	HOU	7	7	40	169	34	17	6	100%	5.7	20.4%	10.2%	10.2%	3.7%	5.03	5.07	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	HOU	7	7	43	182	37	19	7	100%	6.1	20.2%	10.3%	9.9%	3.8%	5.09	5.16	+0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	48	203	44	20	8	100%	6.0	21.9%	9.8%	12.2%	4.0%	5.05	5.05	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		26	26	157	664	138	67	25	100%	6.0	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	3.8%	5.05	4.70	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	175	85	32	100%	6.0	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	3.8%	5.05	4.70	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		59	41	227	985	206	122	34	69%	3.9	20.9%	12.4%	8.5%	3.5%	3.88	4.82	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	36	200	867	181	108	30	69%	3.9	20.9%	12.4%	8.5%	3.5%	3.88	4.82	+0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Asheville Tourists · 62 IPFIP 4.95 → 6.28 (+1.33)K% 24.5% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.48%	—	×0.770	18.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.150	11.50%
HR / BF /BF	4.83%	÷1.000	×1.250	6.03%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.95 → 6.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 38 IPFIP 3.56 → 4.43 (+0.88)K% 26.8% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.75%	—	×0.810	21.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.64%	—	×1.100	8.41%
HR / BF /BF	3.18%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.82%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.56 → 4.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Asheville Tourists · 12 IPFIP 5.46 → 5.92 (+0.46)K% 16.0% → 12.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.00%	—	×0.770	12.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.00%	—	×1.150	13.80%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.297	×1.250	3.86%

Result: FIP 5.46 → 5.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 52 IPFIP 2.02 → 3.16 (+1.14)K% 35.1% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.07%	—	×0.740	25.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.80%	—	×1.180	15.10%
HR / BF /BF	0.47%	÷0.993	×1.300	0.62%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 2.02 → 3.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Asheville Tourists · 46 IPFIP 4.62 → 5.28 (+0.67)K% 20.9% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.87%	—	×0.770	16.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.17%	—	×1.150	12.84%
HR / BF /BF	3.40%	÷1.218	×1.250	3.49%

Result: FIP 4.62 → 5.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 12 IPFIP 1.03 → 2.25 (+1.22)K% 42.9% → 31.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.86%	—	×0.740	31.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.24%	—	×1.180	14.45%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.949	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.03 → 2.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nolan DeVos (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	20.2%	10.5%	3.6%	—	5.09	20.4%	10.1%	202	+0.00	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	86
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	84
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	79
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	79
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	79
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	79
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	78
André Rienzo R 2014 · 5.13 FIP	26	SP-	5.13	16.3%	10.6%	3.8%	.324	4.13	17.5%	4.8%	171	-1.00	3.53	321	78
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	78
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	78
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	77
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.83	14.2%	5.0%	81	+1.12	4.43	239	77
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	76
Cole Percival R 2024 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	17.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.296	3.58	20.5%	9.5%	36	-1.02	3.58	327	76
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	75
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	75
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	75
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	74
Matt Wise R 2001 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	23.7%	8.1%	5.2%	.271	3.50	13.5%	7.2%	53	-1.48	3.33	302	74
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	62	20.6%	10.2%	1.45	5.06
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*