Alonzo Tredwell
P
Fayetteville Woodpeckers
Age 24
RHP
6'8" / 245 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.8 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 65 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125115vR 106
ERA4.66
FIP4.66
K%23.1%
BB%13.0%
K-BB%10.1%
ROS IP66
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 17 | 14 | 57 | 257 | 67 | 38 | 3 | 82% | 3.4 | 19.3% | 17.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 5.37 | 4.36 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 17 | 14 | 57 | 257 | 67 | 38 | 3 | 82% | 3.4 | 26.1% | 14.8% | 11.3% | 1.2% | 5.37 | 3.43 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 16 | 100 | 427 | 122 | 45 | 9 | 62% | 3.8 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 2.5% | 3.69 | 4.15 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 16 | 100 | 427 | 122 | 45 | 9 | 62% | 3.8 | 28.6% | 10.5% | 18.0% | 2.1% | 3.69 | 3.18 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 21 | 21 | 120 | 507 | 117 | 66 | 14 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.1% | 13.0% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.66 | 4.66 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 21 | 21 | 122 | 513 | 120 | 60 | 14 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.4% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.54 | 4.49 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 20 | 20 | 122 | 513 | 121 | 59 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.5% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 4.48 | 4.45 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 20 | 20 | 120 | 505 | 118 | 57 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.4% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.48 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 114 | 56 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.2% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.56 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 18 | 18 | 111 | 468 | 108 | 54 | 14 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.0% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.69 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 51 | 26 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.4% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 81 | 342 | 80 | 39 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.5% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.50 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 15 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 91 | 44 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.4% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.53 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 98 | 414 | 96 | 47 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.2% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.61 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 97 | 410 | 94 | 47 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.0% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.74 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 70 | 70 | 420 | 1771 | 413 | 203 | 52 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.21 | +5.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 97 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 43 | 30 | 157 | 684 | 144 | 97 | 14 | 70% | 3.7 | 21.0% | 14.1% | 6.9% | 2.0% | 4.30 | 4.23 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 38 | 200 | 871 | 183 | 123 | 18 | 70% | 3.7 | 21.0% | 14.1% | 6.9% | 2.0% | 4.30 | 4.23 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alonzo Tredwell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 23.1% | 13.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.47 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 363 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 82 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2025 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.55 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.24 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.31 | 3.72 | 283 | 82 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 82 |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.40 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 2.7% | .306 | 4.83 | 21.2% | 8.3% | 168 | +0.43 | 3.57 | 389 | 80 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.63 | 21.4% | 13.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 1.87 | 232 | 80 |
| Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .258 | 4.83 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.57 | 4.26 | 151 | 79 |
| Michael Kelly R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.28 | 14.6% | -9.6% | 67 | +2.05 | 2.83 | 666 | 79 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 78 |
| Peter Solomon R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.87 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .283 | 5.61 | 17.7% | 5.7% | 286 | +0.74 | 2.87 | 516 | 78 |
| Reid Johnston R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.90 | 19.5% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .256 | 5.86 | 17.2% | 2.4% | 31 | +0.96 | 3.72 | 234 | 77 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.22 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .293 | 4.57 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.65 | 4.00 | 512 | 77 |
| Jake Wong R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.86 | 19.5% | 11.9% | 1.7% | .328 | 6.58 | 17.5% | 5.7% | 68 | +2.72 | 3.86 | 278 | 77 |
| Blade Tidwell R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.07 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 2.9% | .295 | 4.29 | 22.9% | 11.6% | 57 | +0.22 | 4.07 | 408 | 77 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 77 |
| Aaron Brown R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.70 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .337 | 6.11 | 17.2% | 8.4% | 186 | +2.41 | 3.70 | 418 | 77 |
| Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 77 |
| Matt Ball R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 21.3% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 312 | 77 |
| Gavin Stone R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .309 | 4.02 | 20.0% | 13.6% | 140 | -0.59 | 2.39 | 485 | 77 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.65 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 2.1% | .280 | 6.01 | 18.9% | 5.5% | 56 | +2.36 | 3.65 | 287 | 77 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.64 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 3.9% | .261 | 4.28 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 173 | -0.36 | 3.41 | 368 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 118 | 23.3% | 11.7% | 1.09 | 4.55 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Gio Gonzalez ('20) | 6 | 141 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 0.85 | 3.85 |