Alonzo Tredwell — OGILVIE

Alonzo Tredwell P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 24 RHP 6'8" / 245 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.0 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION9 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%23.1%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL—50

CMD3045

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	17	14	57	257	67	38	3	82%	3.4	19.3%	17.4%	1.8%	1.4%	5.37	4.43	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	17	14	57	257	67	38	3	82%	3.4	19.3%	17.4%	1.8%	1.4%	5.37	4.43	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	17	14	57	257	67	38	3	82%	3.4	26.1%	14.8%	11.3%	1.2%	5.37	3.43	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	16	100	427	122	45	9	62%	3.8	22.0%	12.1%	9.9%	2.6%	3.69	4.19	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	16	100	427	122	45	9	62%	3.8	22.0%	12.1%	9.9%	2.6%	3.69	4.19	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	16	100	427	122	45	9	62%	3.8	28.6%	10.5%	18.0%	2.1%	3.69	3.18	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	4	4	9	50	4	21	1	100%	2.3	6.5%	46.2%	-39.7%	2.4%	10.61	9.72	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	4	4	9	50	4	21	1	100%	2.3	6.5%	46.2%	-39.7%	2.4%	10.61	9.72	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	HOU	4	4	9	50	4	21	1	100%	2.3	8.0%	42.0%	-34.0%	2.0%	10.61	8.84	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	HOU	2	2	10	43	10	6	1	100%	5.1	23.1%	13.6%	9.5%	2.7%	4.76	4.76	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	19	93	14	27	2	—	—	15.0%	28.9%	-14.0%	2.3%	7.57	7.14	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	HOU	21	21	122	513	120	63	14	100%	5.8	23.4%	12.2%	11.2%	2.8%	4.62	4.56	+0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	HOU	20	20	122	513	121	61	14	100%	6.1	23.5%	11.8%	11.7%	2.8%	4.55	4.52	+0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	HOU	20	20	120	505	118	59	14	100%	6.0	23.4%	11.7%	11.7%	2.8%	4.54	4.54	+0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	HOU	19	19	116	490	114	58	14	100%	6.1	23.2%	11.8%	11.5%	2.9%	4.58	4.62	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	HOU	18	18	111	468	108	56	14	100%	6.2	23.0%	12.0%	11.0%	3.1%	4.68	4.75	+0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	HOU	17	17	104	440	100	54	14	100%	6.1	22.7%	12.3%	10.4%	3.3%	4.83	4.93	-0.0
2033	31	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	97	410	91	52	14	100%	6.1	22.3%	12.6%	9.6%	3.5%	5.01	5.13	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	53	224	52	27	6	100%	5.9	23.4%	12.2%	11.2%	2.7%	4.58	4.52	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	81	342	80	40	9	100%	5.8	23.5%	11.8%	11.7%	2.7%	4.51	4.48	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	HOU	16	16	93	393	92	46	11	100%	5.8	23.4%	11.7%	11.7%	2.8%	4.50	4.50	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	HOU	16	16	98	414	96	49	12	100%	6.1	23.2%	11.8%	11.5%	2.9%	4.54	4.58	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	HOU	16	16	97	410	94	49	12	100%	6.1	23.0%	12.0%	11.0%	3.0%	4.63	4.70	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	HOU	16	16	94	397	90	49	13	100%	5.9	22.7%	12.3%	10.4%	3.2%	4.78	4.88	-0.0
2033	31	MLB CTX	HOU	15	15	89	376	84	47	13	100%	5.9	22.3%	12.6%	9.6%	3.4%	4.96	5.08	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		101	101	605	2556	589	308	76	100%	6.0	23.0%	12.0%	11.0%	3.0%	4.65	4.31	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	195	102	25	100%	6.0	23.0%	12.0%	11.0%	3.0%	4.65	4.31	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		47	34	166	734	147	120	16	72%	3.5	20.0%	16.3%	3.7%	2.1%	4.65	4.65	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	41	200	883	177	144	19	72%	3.5	20.0%	16.3%	3.7%	2.1%	4.65	4.65	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alonzo Tredwell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	23.1%	13.6%	2.7%	—	4.54	23.4%	11.5%	363	-0.22	—	—	—
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	84
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	84
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	83
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	80
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	80
Chase Silseth R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP-	3.80	23.8%	10.8%	2.4%	.264	4.24	20.6%	8.1%	122	+0.44	3.30	332	79
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	79
Houston Roth R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP-	4.44	19.3%	11.2%	2.8%	.306	5.02	21.0%	8.4%	168	+0.58	3.79	406	79
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	78
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	78
Michael Kelly R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP-	4.22	19.6%	10.9%	2.5%	.297	6.36	14.6%	-9.6%	67	+2.14	2.77	666	78
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	78
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	77
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.36	21.3%	11.3%	274	-0.91	3.90	538	77
Peter Solomon R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	24	SP-	4.71	22.6%	10.8%	3.9%	.283	5.55	17.2%	6.1%	286	+0.84	2.86	516	77
Reid Johnston R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	24	SP-	5.00	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	5.86	17.2%	2.4%	31	+0.86	3.74	234	77
Jake Wong R 2022 · 3.96 FIP	25	SP-	3.96	19.5%	11.9%	1.8%	.328	6.60	17.3%	6.4%	68	+2.64	3.96	278	77
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	77
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	77
Matt Ball R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP-	4.72	21.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	312	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	114	23.1%	12.2%	1.15	4.69
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45