Matt Ruppenthal
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 30
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
K%22.8%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.9%
ROS IP24
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | GCL Astros | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.2 | 45.5% | 9.1% | 36.4% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 0.41 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | GCL Astros | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.2 | 45.5% | 9.1% | 36.4% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 0.10 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | 24 | 14 | 100 | 429 | 111 | 52 | 7 | 58% | 4.2 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 4.33 | 4.55 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | 24 | 14 | 100 | 429 | 111 | 52 | 7 | 58% | 4.2 | 25.9% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 1.6% | 4.33 | 3.35 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 12 | 82 | 369 | 88 | 45 | 9 | 52% | 3.6 | 18.5% | 13.8% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 5.60 | 4.62 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 12 | 82 | 369 | 88 | 45 | 9 | 52% | 3.6 | 23.8% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 2.4% | 5.60 | 4.03 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 64 | 286 | 87 | 42 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.4% | 16.4% | 9.0% | 1.2% | 4.95 | 3.72 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 64 | 286 | 87 | 42 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 30.4% | 14.7% | 15.7% | 1.4% | 4.95 | 3.16 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 1 | 47 | 230 | 51 | 31 | 6 | 3% | 1.4 | 19.2% | 14.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 6.13 | 5.59 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 1 | 47 | 230 | 51 | 31 | 6 | 3% | 1.4 | 22.2% | 13.5% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 6.13 | 4.57 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 22 | 0 | 24 | 99 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 21 | 0 | 22 | 92 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.30 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 74 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.30 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 128 | 29 | 295 | 1325 | 272 | 194 | 32 | 23% | 2.3 | 20.5% | 14.6% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 5.10 | 4.54 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 87 | 20 | 200 | 899 | 185 | 131 | 22 | 23% | 2.3 | 20.5% | 14.6% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 5.10 | 4.54 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Ruppenthal (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 3.1% | — | 4.68 | 22.5% | 12.2% | 22 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 76 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 75 |
| Tim Dillard R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 74 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 74 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 73 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 72 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 71 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 70 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 70 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 70 |
| Chris Leroux R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 70 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.26 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 147 | 70 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 70 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.66 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 3.3% | .245 | 4.56 | 23.0% | 12.4% | 49 | -0.10 | 1.74 | 195 | 70 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 70 |
| Blake Smith R 2024 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 70 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 69 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .288 | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 392 | 69 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 69 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.66 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.62 | 3.66 | 348 | 69 |