Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 4 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.1% | 21.7% | 4.3% | 8.7% | 9.53 | 8.42 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 4 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.1% | 21.7% | 4.3% | 8.7% | 9.53 | 8.22 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 22 | 17 | 97 | 401 | 81 | 48 | 7 | 77% | 4.4 | 14.9% | 14.1% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 3.62 | 4.79 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 22 | 17 | 97 | 401 | 81 | 48 | 7 | 77% | 4.4 | 20.2% | 12.0% | 8.2% | 1.7% | 3.62 | 3.85 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 20 | 102 | 422 | 93 | 42 | 6 | 87% | 4.4 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 2.99 | 4.43 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 20 | 102 | 422 | 93 | 42 | 6 | 87% | 4.4 | 22.0% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 1.4% | 2.99 | 3.28 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 23 | 0 | 29 | 151 | 34 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.6% | 16.4% | 3.1% | 6.9% | 7.98 | 7.34 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 297 | 44 | 39 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.9% | 13.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 5.43 | 5.43 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14.9% | 13.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 5.43 | 5.43 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 100 | 448 | 78 | 61 | 17 | — | — | 17.5% | 13.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.18 | 5.99 | -0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 14.9% | 13.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 5.43 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 68 | 0 | 71 | 301 | 50 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.5% | 12.0% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 5.22 | 5.16 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 68 | 0 | 71 | 301 | 52 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 11.8% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 5.10 | 5.06 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 52 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 11.7% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 5.06 | 5.06 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 22 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.5% | 12.0% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 5.22 | 5.16 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 35 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 11.8% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 5.10 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 40 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.7% | 11.7% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 5.06 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 126 | 0 | 133 | 560 | 97 | 66 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 11.8% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 5.11 | 4.71 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 146 | 99 | 24 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 11.8% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 5.11 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 72 | 37 | 234 | 997 | 166 | 135 | 31 | 51% | 3.3 | 16.6% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.03 | 5.11 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 32 | 200 | 851 | 141 | 115 | 26 | 51% | 3.3 | 16.6% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.03 | 5.11 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jason Savacool (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.43 | 14.9% | 13.0% | 2.8% | — | 5.09 | 17.2% | 5.4% | 213 | -0.34 | — | — | — |
| Sam Whiting R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.13 | 14.3% | 15.1% | 2.4% | .309 | 7.73 | 17.8% | 2.4% | 17 | +2.60 | 4.17 | 152 | 87 |
| Wirkin Estevez R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.36 | 10.7% | 13.4% | 2.7% | .316 | 4.42 | 12.3% | 3.5% | 179 | -0.94 | 4.24 | 238 | 86 |
| Cooper Adams R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 85 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2028 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 85 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 85 |
| Cullen Kafka R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.88 | 14.2% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 148 | 83 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.44 | 4.37 | 160 | 83 |
| Jonathan Hughes R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.59 | 12.9% | 12.5% | 1.8% | .351 | 3.81 | 16.5% | 6.2% | 146 | -0.78 | 3.50 | 219 | 83 |
| Tyler Brashears R 2025 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 12.1% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 156 | 83 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.79 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .296 | 4.83 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 87 | +0.04 | 3.93 | 268 | 83 |
| Paul Clemens R 2029 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 82 |
| Grant Ford R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 81 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.25 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.09 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 274 | -0.16 | 3.69 | 366 | 80 |
| Kyle Miller R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 12.1% | 12.0% | 2.1% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 164 | 80 |
| Marco Camarena R 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.53 | 11.0% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .365 | 3.81 | 8.4% | 0.9% | 73 | -0.72 | 3.81 | 142 | 80 |
| Braxton Hyde R 2026 · 5.67 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.67 | 14.0% | 12.3% | 4.0% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 198 | 80 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 79 |
| LJ Brewster R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.90 | 9.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 143 | 79 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 78 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.29 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 5.23 | 16.8% | 4.6% | 91 | +0.94 | 4.03 | 161 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 71 | 16.6% | 12.1% | 1.10 | 5.20 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |