Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 8 | 59 | 250 | 48 | 24 | 4 | 50% | 3.7 | 13.5% | 11.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 5.19 | 4.41 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 8 | 59 | 250 | 48 | 24 | 4 | 50% | 3.7 | 19.2% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 1.6% | 5.19 | 3.57 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 4 | 69 | 270 | 55 | 17 | 5 | 16% | 2.7 | 15.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 2.0% | 2.75 | 3.83 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 4 | 69 | 270 | 55 | 17 | 5 | 16% | 2.7 | 20.4% | 6.3% | 14.1% | 1.9% | 2.75 | 3.19 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Rome Emperors | 19 | 0 | 34 | 141 | 42 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.8 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 14.8% | 2.7% | 3.21 | 3.66 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ATL | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 39 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.7% | 9.3% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 5.05 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13.7% | 9.3% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 5.05 | 5.05 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 101 | 425 | 81 | 36 | 11 | — | — | 19.0% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 4.44 | 4.58 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 13.7% | 9.3% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 5.05 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 45 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 48 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.81 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 32 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.81 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 71 | 0 | 75 | 316 | 51 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 4.85 | 4.43 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 136 | 78 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 4.85 | 4.43 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 60 | 12 | 161 | 661 | 107 | 61 | 13 | 20% | 2.7 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 2.0% | 3.74 | 4.01 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 74 | 15 | 200 | 819 | 133 | 75 | 17 | 20% | 2.7 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 2.0% | 3.74 | 4.01 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| David Rodriguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.05 | 13.7% | 9.3% | 2.8% | — | 4.83 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 136 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Devin Burke R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.61 | 11.7% | 7.0% | 3.0% | .275 | 3.97 | 13.7% | 8.8% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.97 | 149 | 90 |
| Scott Burke R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.84 | 14.2% | 7.7% | 3.6% | .316 | 5.01 | 14.9% | 6.7% | 61 | +0.17 | 4.84 | 119 | 90 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.50 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .286 | 4.16 | 16.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.34 | 3.28 | 252 | 90 |
| Kevin Johnson R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.59 | 11.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.48 | 9.9% | -2.0% | 26 | +0.89 | 4.59 | 106 | 89 |
| Conor Steinbaugh R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.77 | 16.0% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 6.87 | 14.3% | 0.8% | 39 | +2.10 | 4.77 | 107 | 89 |
| David Reid-Foley R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.89 | 13.8% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .308 | 6.53 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 33 | +1.64 | 4.89 | 110 | 88 |
| Tyler Barnette R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.53 | 13.0% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .333 | 3.99 | 10.7% | -3.5% | 13 | -0.54 | 3.53 | 173 | 87 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.25 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.09 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 274 | -0.16 | 3.69 | 366 | 87 |
| Mark Peterson R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.15 | 11.5% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .277 | 4.72 | 15.9% | 5.6% | 112 | -0.43 | 4.62 | 185 | 86 |
| Robert Kwiatkowski R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.28 | 9.6% | 7.9% | 1.8% | .277 | 4.38 | 16.2% | 6.7% | 164 | +0.10 | 4.01 | 254 | 85 |
| Troy Neiman R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.93 | 13.1% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .287 | 4.60 | 19.7% | 11.7% | 135 | -0.33 | 3.84 | 199 | 85 |
| Reece Karalus R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 15.4% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.74 | 149 | 84 |
| Robbie Aviles R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.77 | 11.5% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .343 | 3.62 | 12.2% | 6.5% | 58 | -1.15 | 3.62 | 172 | 84 |
| Pedro Echemendia R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.76 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .286 | 4.02 | 11.0% | 5.9% | 72 | -0.74 | 4.02 | 141 | 84 |
| Madison Younginer IV R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.87 | 14.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .254 | 3.87 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 145 | -0.00 | 3.04 | 219 | 83 |
| Trevor Foss R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.43 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 3.3% | .308 | 3.47 | 17.3% | 13.8% | 42 | -0.96 | 3.47 | 120 | 83 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 83 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 83 |
| Daniel Concepcion R 2024 · 5.38 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.38 | 13.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 110 | 83 |
| Cooper Adams R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 15.4% | 9.2% | 1.09 | 4.92 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |