David Rodriguez
P
Rome Emperors
+0.2
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 196 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.4%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%11.6%
IP65
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 16 | 8 | 59 | 250 | 48 | 24 | 4 | 13.5% | 11.7% | 1.8% | 5.19 | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Rome Emperors | 25 | 4 | 69 | 270 | 55 | 17 | 5 | 15.2% | 7.4% | 2.0% | 2.75 | 3.86 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Rome Emperors | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.45 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 56 | 24 | 8 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 69 | 290 | 59 | 25 | 8 | 20.4% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 4.19 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 59 | 24 | 8 | 21.1% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.34 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 60 | 24 | 8 | 21.5% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.31 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 60 | 24 | 8 | 21.6% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.32 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 59 | 24 | 8 | 21.6% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.35 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 63 | 267 | 57 | 24 | 8 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.39 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 55 | 23 | 8 | 21.2% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 53 | 23 | 8 | 21.0% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.53 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 50 | 22 | 8 | 20.7% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 47 | 21 | 7 | 20.4% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 52 | — | 52 | 217 | 44 | 21 | 7 | 20.1% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.76 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 48 | — | 48 | 205 | 40 | 20 | 7 | 19.7% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 37 | 19 | 7 | 19.3% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 5.00 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 43 | 12 | 131 | 534 | 78 | 50 | 10 | 14.6% | 9.4% | 1.9% | 3.84 | 4.08 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 18 | 200 | 813 | 119 | 76 | 15 | 14.6% | 9.4% | 1.9% | 3.84 | 4.08 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| David Rodriguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.32 | 21.4% | 12.7% | 198 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.16 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .262 | 4.19 | 16.8% | 7.5% | 66 | +0.03 | 4.16 | 135 | 94 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.41 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.65 | 255 | 94 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 92 |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .287 | 4.87 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 95 | +0.85 | 4.02 | 158 | 92 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 92 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.83 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | -0.03 | 3.40 | 134 | 92 |
| Bryan Pope R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.96 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .332 | 5.16 | 12.7% | -0.3% | 22 | +1.20 | 3.96 | 148 | 92 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.87 | 17.8% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .309 | 3.25 | 24.8% | 15.5% | 104 | -0.62 | 2.78 | 312 | 91 |
| Stephen Villines R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.96 | 16.8% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .280 | 3.13 | 20.6% | 14.7% | 40 | -0.83 | 2.14 | 156 | 91 |
| Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.75 | 17.1% | 8.9% | 3.6% | .335 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 8.5% | 129 | -0.77 | 3.43 | 183 | 91 |
| Tai Tiedemann R 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.84 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .305 | 5.79 | 9.8% | -0.2% | 118 | +1.95 | 3.84 | 190 | 90 |
| Alex Hermeling R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 127 | 90 |
| Rob Griswold R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 8.3% | 3.3% | .244 | 4.35 | 12.5% | 6.2% | 144 | -0.17 | 3.57 | 203 | 90 |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.42 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .279 | 5.32 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.90 | 4.42 | 239 | 90 |
| Matt Pierpont R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.25 | 17.8% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .295 | 3.25 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 190 | -1.00 | 2.79 | 280 | 90 |
| Landon Beck R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.92 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.26 | 17.4% | 8.7% | 63 | +0.34 | 3.52 | 186 | 90 |
| Mick VanVossen R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.17 | 18.6% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 141 | 89 |
| Brian Glowicki R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 16.4% | 8.3% | 3.0% | .275 | 3.92 | 26.0% | 14.1% | 62 | -0.50 | 2.30 | 189 | 89 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.98 | 17.6% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .263 | 5.58 | 16.1% | -1.3% | 133 | +1.60 | 3.57 | 281 | 89 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 278 | 89 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | +0.3 | $1M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.6M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$7M |
| Totals | $11M | $9M | -$2M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.