David Rodriguez

P Rome Emperors

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 196 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	16	8	59	5.19	3.57	19.2%	9.6%	—	K 13.5% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.50
2025	23	MIX2 levels	25	4	69	2.75	3.19	20.4%	6.3%	—	K 15.2% · BB 7.4% · FIP 3.89
2026	24	A+ATL	31	0	56	3.38	2.92	24.7%	5.6%	—	K 19.0% · BB 6.5% · FIP 3.80
2027PROJ	25	MLBATL	—	—	0	4.76	4.76	16.1%	8.4%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBATL	22	0	23	4.69	4.67	17.3%	8.4%	-0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBATL	29	0	30	4.68	4.69	17.7%	8.5%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control50Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsConor Steinbaugh (age 25) · Ross Ohlendorf (age 25) · Trevor Foss (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%16.1%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%7.8%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	8	59	250	48	24	4	50%	3.7	13.5%	11.7%	1.8%	1.9%	5.19	4.50	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	8	59	250	48	24	4	50%	3.7	13.5%	11.7%	1.8%	1.9%	5.19	4.50	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	8	59	250	48	24	4	50%	3.7	19.2%	9.6%	9.6%	1.6%	5.19	3.57	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	4	69	270	55	17	5	16%	2.7	15.2%	7.4%	7.8%	2.1%	2.75	3.89	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	4	69	270	55	17	5	16%	2.7	15.2%	7.4%	7.8%	2.1%	2.75	3.89	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	4	69	270	55	17	5	16%	2.7	20.4%	6.3%	14.1%	1.9%	2.75	3.19	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	31	0	56	231	57	13	5	0%	1.8	19.0%	6.5%	12.5%	2.7%	3.38	3.80	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	31	0	56	231	57	13	5	0%	1.8	19.0%	6.5%	12.5%	2.7%	3.38	3.80	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	Rome Emperors	31	0	56	231	57	13	5	0%	1.8	24.7%	5.6%	19.0%	2.2%	3.38	2.92	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.1%	8.4%	7.8%	2.9%	4.76	4.76	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	ATL	51	0	54	227	39	19	7	0%	1.1	17.3%	8.4%	8.9%	2.9%	4.69	4.67	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	ATL	45	0	47	198	35	17	6	0%	1.0	17.7%	8.5%	9.2%	2.9%	4.68	4.69	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	ATL	41	0	43	182	33	16	6	0%	1.1	17.9%	8.7%	9.2%	3.1%	4.71	4.75	-0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	ATL	38	0	40	168	30	15	5	0%	1.0	17.8%	9.0%	8.8%	3.2%	4.80	4.87	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	ATL	22	0	23	97	17	8	3	0%	1.0	17.3%	8.4%	8.9%	2.9%	4.69	4.67	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	ATL	29	0	30	127	22	11	4	0%	1.0	17.7%	8.5%	9.2%	2.9%	4.68	4.69	-0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	ATL	30	0	32	135	24	12	4	0%	1.1	17.9%	8.7%	9.2%	3.1%	4.71	4.75	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	ATL	30	0	32	135	24	12	4	0%	1.1	17.8%	9.0%	8.8%	3.2%	4.80	4.87	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		112	0	118	496	88	43	15	0%	1.0	17.7%	8.7%	9.0%	3.0%	4.72	4.37	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	150	73	26	0%	1.1	17.7%	8.7%	9.0%	3.0%	4.72	4.37	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		72	12	184	751	119	64	17	17%	2.6	15.8%	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	3.72	4.06	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	13	200	818	129	70	18	17%	2.6	15.8%	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	3.72	4.06	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Rome Emperors · 56 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.80 (+0.88)K% 24.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.68%	—	×0.770	19.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.63%	—	×1.150	6.47%
HR / BF /BF	2.16%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.71%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAugusta GreenJackets · 50 IPFIP 3.32 → 3.97 (+0.66)K% 21.6% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.65%	—	×0.740	16.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.22%	—	×1.180	8.52%
HR / BF /BF	2.06%	÷1.281	×1.300	2.09%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 156).

Result: FIP 3.32 → 3.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Rome Emperors · 19 IPFIP 2.88 → 3.66 (+0.79)K% 17.1% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.11%	—	×0.770	13.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.95%	—	×1.150	4.54%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷0.819	×1.250	2.01%

Result: FIP 2.88 → 3.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Braves · 34 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.45 (+0.97)K% 20.4% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.42%	—	×0.680	13.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.56%	—	×1.250	13.20%
HR / BF /BF	1.41%	÷1.266	×1.400	1.56%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 153).

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAugusta GreenJackets · 25 IPFIP 3.69 → 4.55 (+0.87)K% 17.6% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.59%	—	×0.740	13.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.180	9.83%
HR / BF /BF	1.85%	÷1.010	×1.300	2.38%

Result: FIP 3.69 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	16.1%	8.4%	2.9%	—	4.70	17.6%	9.0%	144	-0.06	—	—	—
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	90
Ross Ohlendorf R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	25	SW	4.73	16.3%	9.3%	3.3%	.357	4.63	15.4%	7.7%	324	-0.10	3.30	617	89
Trevor Foss R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	25	SU	4.22	14.5%	5.9%	2.9%	.308	3.77	17.3%	13.8%	42	-0.45	3.77	120	89
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	88
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	87
Pedro Echemendia R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	25	SU	4.79	15.0%	8.0%	3.5%	.286	4.31	11.0%	5.9%	72	-0.48	4.31	141	87
Stephen Kohlscheen R 2015 · 3.83 FIP	26	SU	3.83	15.6%	8.1%	1.9%	.311	3.98	22.8%	15.0%	90	+0.15	2.52	167	87
Adam Warren R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	19.3%	8.5%	2.8%	.306	3.43	20.5%	13.1%	275	-0.66	2.65	548	87
Taylor Grover R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	17.5%	8.4%	1.8%	.317	4.92	19.4%	9.1%	89	+1.24	3.68	239	86
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	86
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	86
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	85
D.J. Carrasco R 2003 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	16.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.291	4.66	10.5%	1.4%	150	+0.39	3.23	490	85
Daniel Blair R 2024 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	17.0%	9.2%	2.8%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	171	85
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	85
Jack Jasiak R 2024 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	15.2%	8.6%	3.1%	.332	3.39	22.3%	15.0%	126	-1.20	3.24	262	85
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	85
Hunter McMahon R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	16.5%	8.0%	2.8%	.301	5.84	5.7%	1.8%	14	+1.60	2.23	174	85
Logan Bawcom R 2015 · 3.85 FIP	26	SU	3.85	15.8%	9.1%	1.7%	.320	4.35	15.9%	6.2%	259	+0.50	3.73	399	84
Ranfi Casimiro R 2017 · 4.36 FIP	25	SU	4.36	15.3%	7.5%	2.9%	.258	4.67	15.2%	4.8%	103	+0.31	3.81	420	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	51	17.2%	8.6%	1.15	4.73
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Dave Leiper ('84-'96, 0 WAR*)	1.4	46	15.6%*	9.1%*	0.94*	4.28*