Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 32 | 0 | 69 | 307 | 50 | 37 | 5 | 0% | 2.1 | 12.1% | 14.2% | -2.2% | 2.0% | 4.46 | 5.01 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 32 | 0 | 69 | 307 | 50 | 37 | 5 | 0% | 2.1 | 16.3% | 12.1% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 4.46 | 4.21 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 32 | 2 | 67 | 301 | 62 | 22 | 6 | 6% | 2.1 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 4.57 | 4.97 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 32 | 2 | 67 | 301 | 62 | 22 | 6 | 6% | 2.1 | 20.6% | 7.3% | 13.3% | 2.0% | 4.57 | 3.40 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 69 | 302 | 77 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.7 | 19.9% | 7.1% | 12.7% | 1.7% | 3.38 | 3.25 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 69 | 302 | 77 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.7 | 25.5% | 6.3% | 19.2% | 1.3% | 3.38 | 2.45 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 27 | 0 | 44 | 196 | 57 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 24.0% | 8.7% | 15.3% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 3.92 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CLE | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 53 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CLE | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 114 | 492 | 110 | 38 | 13 | — | — | 22.4% | 7.8% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.24 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 18.0% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.06 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 56 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 56 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 0 | 76 | 320 | 61 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.04 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 161 | 66 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 131 | 2 | 249 | 1106 | 190 | 108 | 29 | 2% | 1.9 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 4.19 | 4.33 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 105 | 2 | 200 | 888 | 153 | 87 | 23 | 2% | 1.9 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 4.19 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jack Jasiak (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.41 | 19.0% | 11.2% | 139 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| J.R. Graham R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .317 | 3.55 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 61 | -0.83 | 3.30 | 125 | 90 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.33 | 19.6% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .293 | 4.70 | 17.7% | 7.8% | 115 | +1.37 | 3.33 | 258 | 90 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.63 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 1.7% | .317 | 4.89 | 19.4% | 9.1% | 89 | +1.26 | 3.63 | 239 | 90 |
| Stephen Kohlscheen R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.95 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.02 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 90 | +0.07 | 2.39 | 167 | 89 |
| Hunter McMahon R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.03 | 16.6% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .301 | 6.46 | 5.7% | 1.8% | 14 | +2.43 | 2.23 | 174 | 88 |
| Pedro Echemendia R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.76 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .286 | 4.02 | 11.0% | 5.9% | 72 | -0.74 | 4.02 | 141 | 88 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 88 |
| John Brebbia R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.03 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .346 | 3.14 | 27.6% | 21.4% | 215 | -0.89 | 2.81 | 574 | 88 |
| Alex Hermeling R 2025 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.87 | 16.5% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 127 | 87 |
| Cole Johnson R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.56 | 17.4% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .311 | 3.48 | 14.0% | 9.2% | 49 | -0.08 | 3.48 | 101 | 87 |
| Stephen Villines R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.99 | 16.8% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .280 | 3.05 | 20.6% | 14.7% | 40 | -0.94 | 2.16 | 156 | 87 |
| Anthony Bass R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.57 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .300 | 3.39 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 123 | -0.18 | 2.93 | 432 | 87 |
| Rafael Pineda R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.14 | 14.6% | 5.2% | 2.9% | .298 | 5.49 | 6.5% | -3.4% | 20 | +1.35 | 4.14 | 101 | 87 |
| Johnny Magliozzi R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.21 | 14.9% | 5.6% | 3.0% | .246 | 3.31 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 68 | -0.90 | 3.31 | 131 | 86 |
| Andres Avila R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.01 | 16.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% | .316 | 4.13 | 20.3% | 13.9% | 73 | +0.12 | 4.01 | 177 | 86 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.12 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .275 | 4.62 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.50 | 4.12 | 230 | 86 |
| Brian Glowicki R 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 16.4% | 8.3% | 3.1% | .275 | 3.89 | 26.0% | 14.1% | 62 | -0.60 | 2.36 | 189 | 86 |
| Matt Pierpont R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.42 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 1.8% | .295 | 3.26 | 21.6% | 13.6% | 156 | -0.16 | 2.66 | 280 | 86 |
| Carter Rustad R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.84 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 101 | 86 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.28 | 19.4% | 7.4% | 1.6% | .312 | 3.96 | 20.7% | 7.8% | 65 | +0.68 | 3.28 | 113 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 18.7% | 7.7% | 1.08 | 4.42 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |