Kaleb Bowman

P Nashville Sounds

Age 30 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	28	AAMIL	38	46	2.76	4.15	20.2%	10.4%	—	K 16.4% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.70
2026	29	AAAMIL	34	54	6.20	5.63	18.6%	16.6%	—	K 16.0% · BB 14.9% · FIP 5.55
2027PROJ	30	MLBMIL	7	7	5.67	5.67	15.4%	14.1%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBMIL	16	17	5.66	5.74	15.8%	14.0%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBMIL	19	20	5.73	5.86	15.9%	14.0%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control45Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsWirfin Obispo (age 30) · Beck Wheeler (age 28) · Grant Black (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.67

FIP5.67

K%15.4%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%1.3%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	33	148	41	10	4	0%	1.1	22.0%	7.5%	14.5%	3.1%	5.94	3.88	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	33	148	41	10	4	0%	1.1	27.7%	6.8%	20.9%	2.7%	5.94	3.10	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	39	1	70	280	67	22	7	3%	1.8	19.4%	8.6%	10.7%	2.5%	3.07	3.93	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	39	1	70	280	67	22	7	3%	1.8	19.4%	8.6%	10.7%	2.5%	3.07	3.93	—
2024	27	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	39	1	70	280	67	22	7	3%	1.8	23.9%	7.9%	16.1%	2.5%	3.07	3.43	—
2025	28	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	38	0	46	183	37	19	5	0%	1.2	16.4%	11.4%	5.0%	2.8%	2.76	4.70	—
2025	28	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	38	0	46	183	37	19	5	0%	1.2	16.4%	11.4%	5.0%	2.8%	2.76	4.70	—
2025	28	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	38	0	46	183	37	19	5	0%	1.2	20.2%	10.4%	9.8%	2.7%	2.76	4.15	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	34	0	54	253	47	42	8	0%	1.6	16.0%	14.9%	1.0%	3.5%	6.20	5.55	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	34	0	54	253	47	42	8	0%	1.6	16.0%	14.9%	1.0%	3.5%	6.20	5.55	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	34	0	54	253	47	42	8	0%	1.6	18.6%	16.6%	2.0%	3.2%	6.20	5.63	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	MIL	7	0	7	30	5	4	1	0%	1.0	15.4%	14.1%	1.3%	3.1%	5.67	5.67	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	MIL	44	0	46	195	31	27	6	0%	1.0	15.8%	14.0%	1.9%	3.3%	5.66	5.74	-0.6
2029	32	MLB MLE	MIL	35	0	36	154	25	22	5	0%	1.0	15.9%	14.0%	1.9%	3.6%	5.73	5.86	-0.5
2028	31	MLB CTX	MIL	16	0	17	72	11	10	2	0%	1.1	15.8%	14.0%	1.9%	3.3%	5.66	5.74	-0.2
2029	32	MLB CTX	MIL	19	0	20	84	13	12	3	0%	1.1	15.9%	14.0%	1.9%	3.6%	5.73	5.86	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		35	0	37	157	25	22	5	0%	1.1	15.9%	14.0%	1.9%	3.4%	5.70	5.42	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	135	119	27	0%	1.1	15.9%	14.0%	1.9%	3.4%	5.70	5.42	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		140	1	203	864	157	94	25	1%	1.4	18.2%	10.9%	7.3%	2.9%	4.30	4.56	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		138	1	200	851	155	93	25	1%	1.4	18.2%	10.9%	7.3%	2.9%	4.30	4.56	-2.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANashville Sounds · 54 IPFIP 5.37 → 5.55 (+0.18)K% 18.6% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.58%	—	×0.860	15.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.60%	—	×0.900	14.94%
HR / BF /BF	3.16%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.48%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.37 → 5.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABiloxi Shuckers · 46 IPFIP 4.21 → 4.70 (+0.49)K% 20.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.22%	—	×0.810	16.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.38%	—	×1.100	11.42%
HR / BF /BF	2.73%	÷1.170	×1.200	2.80%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 134).

Result: FIP 4.21 → 4.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABiloxi Shuckers · 70 IPFIP 3.45 → 3.93 (+0.49)K% 23.9% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.93%	—	×0.810	19.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.86%	—	×1.100	8.64%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷1.198	×1.200	2.50%

Result: FIP 3.45 → 3.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABiloxi Shuckers · 20 IPFIP 4.00 → 4.83 (+0.82)K% 26.5% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.53%	—	×0.810	21.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.100	7.86%
HR / BF /BF	4.08%	÷1.055	×1.200	4.64%

Result: FIP 4.00 → 4.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 13 IPFIP 1.33 → 2.02 (+0.70)K% 30.0% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.770	23.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.00%	—	×1.150	6.90%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.033	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 1.33 → 2.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kaleb Bowman (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.67	15.4%	14.1%	3.1%	—	5.79	15.9%	1.9%	83	+0.12	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	83
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	79
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	78
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	78
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	78
Fernando Villalobos R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	30	SU	5.33	8.3%	13.1%	2.3%	.365	4.36	11.4%	3.1%	109	-0.97	4.00	152	77
Willie Eyre R 2007 · 4.53 FIP	29	SU	4.53	13.7%	9.1%	2.6%	.306	2.87	11.1%	5.5%	18	-1.66	2.87	164	76
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	76
Jeff Gray R 2012 · 5.43 FIP	30	SU	5.43	11.0%	9.3%	3.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	127	74
Kyle Snyder R 2007 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	16.9%	12.4%	2.9%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	236	73
Ivan Zavala R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	30	SU	5.02	12.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.286	5.15	12.7%	5.3%	61	+0.13	4.27	209	72
Brandon Puffer R 2004 · 5.23 FIP	28	SU	5.23	13.5%	11.2%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	108	72
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	72
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	71
Ramon Troncoso R 2013 · 4.95 FIP	30	SU	4.95	13.1%	10.9%	2.9%	.260	3.05	17.3%	9.5%	82	-1.90	2.65	310	71
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	70
Jaye Chapman R 2017 · 5.51 FIP	30	SU	5.51	13.0%	13.4%	3.3%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	162	70
Kane Davis R 2005 · 5.15 FIP	30	SU	5.15	15.7%	14.3%	2.9%	.170	4.82	16.9%	6.7%	11	-0.33	3.40	125	70
Tony Fiore R 2002 · 4.60 FIP	30	SU	4.60	14.3%	10.1%	2.6%	.228	5.17	14.3%	1.9%	36	+0.57	4.60	142	69
Scott Proctor R 2007 · 4.74 FIP	30	SU	4.74	16.8%	10.5%	3.1%	.248	4.66	25.0%	12.5%	39	-0.08	3.68	337	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	50	15.7%	14.0%	1.27	5.68
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*