Reid Johnston
P
Akron RubberDucks
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 218 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 64 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120110vR 101
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
K%22.9%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%13.2%
ROS IP64
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 24 | 16 | 112 | 466 | 122 | 24 | 10 | 67% | 4.7 | 19.4% | 6.1% | 13.3% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 3.72 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 24 | 16 | 112 | 466 | 122 | 24 | 10 | 67% | 4.7 | 26.2% | 5.2% | 21.0% | 2.1% | 3.94 | 2.73 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 23 | 15 | 92 | 398 | 101 | 48 | 11 | 65% | 4.0 | 19.5% | 13.9% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 3.83 | 4.90 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 23 | 15 | 92 | 398 | 101 | 48 | 11 | 65% | 4.0 | 25.4% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 3.83 | 4.03 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 24 | 0 | 31 | 141 | 30 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.2% | 14.8% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 4.99 | 5.86 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CLE | 61 | 0 | 64 | 271 | 62 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CLE | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 95 | 412 | 92 | 46 | 13 | — | — | 22.4% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.89 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 23.0% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.05 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 59 | 0 | 62 | 263 | 60 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 57 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 32 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 56 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.19 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 83 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 71 | 31 | 234 | 1005 | 192 | 104 | 31 | 44% | 3.3 | 19.1% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.03 | 4.49 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 26 | 200 | 858 | 164 | 89 | 26 | 44% | 3.3 | 19.1% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.03 | 4.49 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Reid Johnston (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 22.9% | 9.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.56 | 22.8% | 12.8% | 122 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 84 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 83 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 82 |
| Derek Gordon R 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 80 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 80 |
| Wil Jensen R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.41 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 368 | 79 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 78 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 78 |
| Jordan Lyles R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.89 | 22.6% | 6.7% | 3.4% | .284 | 4.94 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 379 | +1.05 | 3.38 | 1,080 | 77 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 76 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.87 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .368 | 4.57 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 148 | +0.70 | 3.64 | 560 | 75 |
| Jake Stinnett R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.07 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 356 | 75 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 75 |
| Nick Morreale R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.92 | 19.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .271 | 3.72 | 11.7% | -1.1% | 14 | -0.20 | 2.97 | 280 | 75 |
| DJ Baxendale R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.68 | 18.1% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .355 | 5.84 | 20.0% | 8.3% | 49 | +2.16 | 2.81 | 426 | 75 |
| Sam Lewis R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 74 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 16.4% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .297 | 4.10 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 293 | -0.05 | 3.33 | 556 | 73 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.79 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 1.7% | .251 | 4.85 | 16.0% | 6.7% | 234 | +1.06 | 3.76 | 399 | 73 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 73 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.64 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 4.1% | .301 | 4.41 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 205 | -0.23 | 4.11 | 563 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 62 | 22.8% | 9.9% | 1.21 | 4.48 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |