Reid Johnston — OGILVIE

Reid Johnston P Akron RubberDucks

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 218 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 108

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%21.7%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	24	16	112	466	122	24	10	67%	4.7	19.4%	6.1%	13.3%	2.7%	3.94	3.74	—
2022	23	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	24	16	112	466	122	24	10	67%	4.7	26.2%	5.2%	21.0%	2.1%	3.94	2.73	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	23	15	92	398	101	48	11	65%	4.0	19.5%	13.9%	5.7%	3.3%	3.83	5.00	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	23	15	92	398	101	48	11	65%	4.0	19.5%	13.9%	5.7%	3.3%	3.83	5.00	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	23	15	92	398	101	48	11	65%	4.0	25.4%	12.1%	13.3%	2.8%	3.83	4.03	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	24	0	31	141	30	19	5	0%	1.3	17.2%	14.8%	2.4%	4.3%	4.99	5.86	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	24	0	31	141	30	19	5	0%	1.3	17.2%	14.8%	2.4%	4.3%	4.99	5.86	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	CLE	24	0	31	141	30	19	5	0%	1.3	21.3%	13.5%	7.8%	3.5%	4.99	4.96	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	CLE	5	0	5	23	5	3	1	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.9%	9.8%	3.0%	4.81	4.81	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	36	164	35	22	6	—	—	21.3%	13.3%	8.1%	3.5%	4.96	5.70	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CLE	59	0	62	263	57	31	8	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.8%	9.9%	3.1%	4.81	4.85	-0.2
2028	29	MLB MLE	CLE	57	0	60	251	54	30	8	0%	1.0	21.6%	11.8%	9.8%	3.3%	4.87	4.94	-0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	CLE	22	0	23	97	21	11	3	0%	1.0	21.7%	11.8%	9.9%	3.1%	4.81	4.85	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	CLE	31	0	33	139	30	16	5	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.8%	9.8%	3.3%	4.87	4.94	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	0	57	239	52	28	8	0%	1.0	21.7%	11.8%	9.9%	3.2%	4.85	4.52	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	99	28	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.8%	9.9%	3.2%	4.85	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		71	31	234	1005	192	104	32	44%	3.3	19.1%	10.4%	8.7%	3.2%	4.03	4.54	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	26	200	858	164	89	27	44%	3.3	19.1%	10.4%	8.7%	3.2%	4.03	4.54	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Reid Johnston (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	21.7%	11.9%	3.0%	—	4.89	21.7%	9.9%	122	+0.08	—	—	—
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	84
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	82
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	82
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	80
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	80
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	79
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	79
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	78
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	77
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	77
Trevor Cahill R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	27	SW	4.13	16.4%	9.4%	2.2%	.297	4.12	22.9%	12.0%	293	-0.01	3.37	556	76
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	75
Logan Bawcom R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	27	SW	3.73	16.6%	9.2%	1.6%	.251	4.85	16.0%	6.7%	234	+1.12	3.73	399	75
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	75
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	75
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	75
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	75
Adam Quintana R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	27	SW	4.17	18.6%	11.7%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	1.72	201	75
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	221	74
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	62	21.7%	11.9%	1.21	4.83
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10