Reid Johnston — OGILVIE

Reid Johnston P Akron RubberDucks

+0.8 WAR

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 218 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.8 · 2026

ERA4.44

FIP4.44

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.9%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%13.2%

IP92

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2026

K†5555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	23	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	24	16	112	466	122	24	10	19.4%	6.1%	2.7%	3.94	3.74	+2.0
2023	24	A+	Lake County Captains	23	15	92	398	101	48	11	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	3.83	5.02	+0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	AA	Akron RubberDucks	4	0	4	20	2	3	1	—	—	—	2.25	—	—
ROS	27	MLB	CLE	17	17	92	387	89	38	12	22.9%	9.8%	3.0%	4.44	4.44	+0.8
2026 Total	27	MLB	CLE	—	—	96	407	91	41	13	22.3%	10.0%	3.1%	4.35	4.25	+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	28	MLB	CLE	17	17	92	390	89	37	12	22.8%	9.6%	3.0%	4.43	4.44	+0.8
2028	29	MLB	CLE	16	16	90	381	86	36	12	22.6%	9.6%	3.1%	4.45	4.47	+0.8
2029	30	MLB	CLE	16	16	88	369	83	35	12	22.4%	9.6%	3.1%	4.49	4.52	+0.7
2030	31	MLB	CLE	15	15	84	356	79	34	11	22.1%	9.6%	3.2%	4.55	4.59	+0.5
2031	32	MLB	CLE	15	15	81	342	75	33	11	21.9%	9.8%	3.3%	4.63	4.68	+0.4
2032	33	MLB	CLE	14	14	77	327	77	30	11	23.6%	9.2%	3.4%	4.56	4.51	+0.5
2033	34	MLB	CLE	13	13	74	310	72	29	11	23.2%	9.4%	3.5%	4.59	4.62	+0.4
2034	35	MLB	CLE	13	13	69	293	67	28	11	22.8%	9.6%	3.6%	4.68	4.74	+0.2
2035	36	MLB	CLE	12	12	65	274	61	27	10	22.4%	9.8%	3.7%	4.80	4.87	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			51	31	208	884	170	87	27	19.2%	9.8%	3.0%	3.86	4.39	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—			49	30	200	851	164	84	26	19.2%	9.8%	3.0%	3.86	4.39	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Reid Johnston (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	22.9%	9.8%	3.0%	—	4.48	22.6%	13.0%	270	+0.04	—	—	—
Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP-	3.98	18.4%	8.9%	2.4%	.315	5.24	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.26	3.98	115	86
Danny Farquhar R 2027 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP-	3.94	22.4%	6.8%	3.4%	.324	3.78	22.0%	12.8%	135	-0.16	3.62	224	86
Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.80 FIP	27	SP-	3.80	18.8%	8.3%	2.3%	.325	4.62	12.4%	6.9%	279	+0.82	3.80	500	84
Brett Sears R 2024 · 3.63 FIP	25	SP-	3.63	21.1%	7.1%	2.6%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	111	83
Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP-	4.38	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	250	83
Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.89 FIP	27	SP-	4.89	21.0%	10.1%	4.2%	.327	3.06	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.83	2.32	1,443	83
Yariel Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP-	3.76	25.1%	11.8%	2.3%	.275	3.86	22.1%	11.7%	73	+0.10	3.76	180	83
J.P. France R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	27	SP-	4.46	24.9%	10.9%	3.8%	.301	4.57	18.7%	8.6%	205	+0.11	4.07	530	82
Wil Jensen R 2025 · 3.50 FIP	26	SP-	3.50	22.7%	8.4%	2.3%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	368	81
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.72	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.12	3.22	221	80
Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.55 FIP	27	SP-	3.55	20.2%	6.3%	2.5%	.306	5.15	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.60	3.55	244	80
Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP-	4.64	18.8%	8.2%	3.8%	.327	3.81	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.83	3.39	316	80
Mitch Atkins R 2029 · 3.70 FIP	30	SP-	3.70	21.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.341	4.75	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.05	3.70	205	80
Luis Cessa R 2026 · 4.54 FIP	27	SP-	4.54	21.9%	8.7%	4.0%	.272	4.05	18.9%	11.2%	167	-0.49	3.15	891	79
Michael Lorenzen R 2026 · 3.43 FIP	27	SP-	3.43	24.8%	7.9%	2.6%	.266	3.90	20.6%	9.8%	160	+0.47	3.19	1,070	79
Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	5.02	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.60	4.42	200	79
Noah Davis R 2026 · 4.05 FIP	27	SP-	4.05	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.368	4.33	21.5%	10.4%	79	+0.28	2.95	492	79
Jordan Lyles R 2026 · 3.69 FIP	27	SP-	3.69	22.6%	6.7%	3.0%	.284	4.86	20.2%	12.1%	379	+1.17	3.49	1,080	79
Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	27	SP-	3.89	17.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.286	4.13	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.24	3.89	248	79
Austin Bergner R 2026 · 5.00 FIP	27	SP-	5.00	22.3%	13.6%	3.8%	.325	4.04	19.1%	7.8%	91	-0.96	4.04	448	79

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.4	$2M	+$1.0M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.6M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.2	$1M	+$0.0M
Totals		$6M		$13M	+$7M