Spencer Howard

P Sacramento River Cats

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	26	MIX2 levels	24	20	97	5.77	4.56	24.2%	9.0%	0.9	K 22.2% · BB 9.3% · FIP 4.69
2023	27	MIX2 levels	15	2	24	7.40	6.18	33.0%	9.2%	-0.5	K 32.1% · BB 6.9% · FIP 6.48
2024	28	MIX2 levels	31	13	91	6.45	4.38	27.2%	9.8%	0.2	K 24.3% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.57
2025	29	No MLB games played
2026	30	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	31	MLBCLE	1	1	6	4.62	4.64	22.3%	9.9%	0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBCLE	3	3	20	4.79	4.90	21.5%	10.3%	0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBCLE	4	4	25	5.02	5.18	20.6%	10.7%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

FB Velo40

K%27

xwOBA vs12

CompsElian Leyva (age 30) · Zack Segovia (age 32) · Mitch Lively (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.64

K%22.3%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p4124.0%

p2718.8%

xwOBA vs

p120.357

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	23	23	112	465	147	40	6	100%	4.9	23.4%	10.2%	13.2%	1.7%	3.78	3.36	—
2018	22	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	23	23	112	465	147	40	6	100%	4.9	31.6%	8.6%	23.0%	1.3%	3.78	2.24	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	15	71	270	94	16	4	100%	4.7	27.4%	6.3%	21.1%	1.4%	2.03	2.33	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	15	71	270	94	16	4	100%	4.7	34.8%	5.9%	28.9%	1.5%	2.03	1.86	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	6	6	24	113	23	10	6	100%	4.1	20.4%	8.8%	11.5%	5.0%	5.92	5.22	+0.0
2020	24	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	6	6	24	113	23	10	6	100%	4.1	20.4%	8.8%	11.5%	5.3%	5.92	5.65	-0.1
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	73	323	83	36	8	85%	2.8	24.5%	11.3%	13.3%	2.4%	5.52	3.76	+1.4
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	73	323	83	36	8	85%	2.8	25.7%	11.1%	14.6%	2.5%	5.52	3.73	+1.5
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	97	433	105	39	18	83%	4.0	22.2%	9.3%	12.9%	4.2%	5.77	4.69	+0.8
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	97	433	105	39	18	83%	4.0	24.2%	9.0%	15.2%	4.2%	5.77	4.56	+0.9
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	2	24	109	36	10	9	13%	1.6	32.1%	6.9%	25.2%	9.5%	7.40	6.48	-0.5
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	2	24	109	36	10	9	13%	1.6	33.0%	9.2%	23.9%	8.3%	7.40	6.18	-0.5
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	13	91	419	114	41	17	42%	2.9	24.3%	9.1%	15.2%	4.3%	6.45	4.57	-0.0
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	13	91	419	114	41	17	42%	2.9	24.3%	9.1%	15.2%	4.3%	6.45	4.57	-0.0
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	13	91	419	114	41	17	42%	2.9	27.2%	9.8%	17.4%	4.1%	6.45	4.38	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			47	32	144	683	136	68	31	68%	3.1	19.9%	10.0%	10.0%	4.5%	7.00	5.43	-0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	CLE	1	1	6	25	6	3	1	100%	6.0	22.3%	9.9%	12.4%	3.3%	4.62	4.64	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	CLE	9	9	54	230	49	24	8	100%	6.1	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	3.5%	4.79	4.90	+0.3
2029	33	MLB MLE	CLE	8	8	46	193	40	21	7	100%	5.7	20.6%	10.7%	9.9%	3.8%	5.02	5.18	+0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	CLE	3	3	20	84	18	9	3	100%	6.7	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	3.5%	4.79	4.90	+0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	CLE	4	4	25	106	22	11	4	100%	6.2	20.6%	10.7%	9.9%	3.8%	5.02	5.18	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	40	189	874	176	88	38	73%	3.4	20.1%	10.1%	10.1%	4.3%	6.50	5.06	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		58	42	200	924	186	93	40	73%	3.5	20.1%	10.1%	10.1%	4.3%	6.50	5.06	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		140	101	492	2132	518	197	71	72%	3.5	24.3%	9.2%	15.1%	3.4%	4.95	4.06	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	41	200	866	211	80	29	72%	3.5	24.3%	9.2%	15.1%	3.4%	4.95	4.06	+0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAASacramento River Cats · 62 IPFIP 4.07 → 4.53 (+0.46)K% 31.6% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.64%	—	×0.860	27.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.82%	—	×0.900	8.84%
HR / BF /BF	4.36%	÷1.010	×1.100	4.75%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 4.07 → 4.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 21 IPFIP 5.74 → 6.48 (+0.74)K% 37.4% → 32.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.36%	—	×0.860	32.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×0.900	6.92%
HR / BF /BF	8.79%	÷1.017	×1.100	9.51%

Result: FIP 5.74 → 6.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAARound Rock Express · 59 IPFIP 3.22 → 3.76 (+0.55)K% 28.7% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.74%	—	×0.880	25.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.84%	—	×1.050	10.33%
HR / BF /BF	2.36%	÷0.957	×1.100	2.71%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 3.22 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAARound Rock Express · 24 IPFIP 2.11 → 2.59 (+0.48)K% 33.0% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.98%	—	×0.880	29.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.57%	—	×1.050	10.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.06%	÷0.958	×1.100	1.22%

Result: FIP 2.11 → 2.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Clearwater Threshers · 35 IPFIP 0.80 → 1.76 (+0.96)K% 38.4% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.40%	—	×0.770	29.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.00%	—	×1.150	4.60%
HR / BF /BF	0.80%	÷0.949	×1.250	1.05%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 0.80 → 1.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAReading Fightin Phils · 31 IPFIP 2.30 → 2.91 (+0.61)K% 31.1% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.15%	—	×0.810	25.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.38%	—	×1.100	8.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.64%	÷1.182	×1.200	1.66%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 136).

Result: FIP 2.30 → 2.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKGCL Phillies East · 5 IPFIP 3.65 → 5.82 (+2.17)K% 34.8% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.78%	—	×0.680	23.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.250	10.87%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷1.000	×1.400	6.09%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.65 → 5.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ALakewood BlueClaws · 112 IPFIP 2.23 → 3.36 (+1.14)K% 31.6% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.61%	—	×0.740	23.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.60%	—	×1.180	10.15%
HR / BF /BF	1.29%	÷0.966	×1.300	1.74%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 2.23 → 3.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Howard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	22.3%	9.9%	3.3%	—	5.03	21.1%	10.6%	100	+0.39	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	78
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	70
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	69
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.20	14.3%	0.1%	23	+3.02	2.74	378	66
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	66
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	66
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	64
Josh A. Smith R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	20.8%	6.4%	4.5%	.341	3.67	17.4%	8.6%	59	-0.98	2.91	598	64
Scott Copeland R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	31	SP-	5.62	17.1%	12.4%	4.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	569	64
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	64
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	63
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	63
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	62
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	62
Luke Hudson R 2006 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	14.5%	8.4%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	235	62
Mike Wright Jr. R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	31	SP-	3.89	19.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.237	4.79	14.4%	1.1%	56	+0.90	3.76	725	61
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	60
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	60
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	60
Randy Wynne R 2024 · 5.75 FIP	31	SP-	5.75	13.6%	6.0%	5.5%	.283	6.55	10.7%	7.2%	60	+0.80	4.35	461	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	44	20.7%	10.2%	1.55	5.84
Giovanni Carrara ('06)	2.4	59	16.3%	9.7%	1.41	4.69
Collin Balester ('15)	1.0	50	17.4%	10.1%	1.75	5.47
Mike Wright Jr. ('21)	1.4	55	17.4%	8.8%	1.47	5.97
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*