Spencer Howard
P
Sacramento River Cats
+0.2
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA5.24
FIP4.59
xFIP5.05
SIERA4.62
K%24.0%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%14.4%
IP71
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4545
CMD4040
K†5555
FB Velo
p4093.8
Whiff%
p4124.0%
K%
p2718.8%
xwOBA vs
p120.357
CU (7%)
SL-3.1 (25%)
FB-3.8 (51%)
CH-3.8 (17%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 23 | 23 | 112 | 465 | 147 | 40 | 6 | 23.4% | 10.2% | 1.7% | 3.78 | 3.36 | +2.5 |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 15 | 15 | 71 | 270 | 94 | 16 | 4 | 27.4% | 6.3% | 1.3% | 2.03 | 2.33 | +2.2 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 6 | 6 | 24 | 113 | 23 | 10 | 6 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 5.92 | 5.08 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 26 | 22 | 73 | 323 | 83 | 36 | 8 | 24.5% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 5.52 | 3.76 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 24 | 20 | 97 | 433 | 105 | 39 | 18 | 22.2% | 9.3% | 4.4% | 5.77 | 4.81 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 15 | 2 | 24 | 109 | 36 | 10 | 9 | 32.9% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.40 | 6.58 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 31 | 13 | 91 | 419 | 114 | 41 | 17 | 24.7% | 10.1% | 4.2% | 6.45 | 4.61 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 13 | 13 | 71 | 300 | 68 | 31 | 11 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 5.45 | 4.80 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 64 | 30 | 10 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 5.12 | 4.90 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 66 | 278 | 60 | 29 | 10 | 21.6% | 10.6% | 3.7% | 5.06 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 55 | 29 | 10 | 20.9% | 10.8% | 3.8% | 5.11 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 51 | 28 | 10 | 20.2% | 10.9% | 3.9% | 5.21 | 5.28 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 46 | 27 | 9 | 19.4% | 11.2% | 4.0% | 5.34 | 5.43 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 42 | 25 | 9 | 18.7% | 11.4% | 4.1% | 5.49 | 5.60 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 140 | 101 | 492 | 2132 | 521 | 202 | 72 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 4.08 | +6.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 41 | 200 | 866 | 212 | 82 | 29 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 4.08 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Spencer Howard (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.80 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 3.5% | — | 5.02 | 21.6% | 11.0% | 197 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 85 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 85 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.06 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .301 | 3.94 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | -0.12 | 1.69 | 468 | 84 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 84 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.24 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .349 | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.70 | 3.05 | 227 | 84 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.35 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.44 | 2.91 | 210 | 81 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 80 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 80 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 79 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 79 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 78 |
| AJ Ramos R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.96 | 27.9% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .288 | 5.08 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 20 | +1.12 | 2.55 | 266 | 78 |
| Blake Smith R 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.63 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 124 | 78 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.84 | 25.9% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .282 | 3.13 | 28.4% | 19.9% | 104 | -0.71 | 2.27 | 445 | 78 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 78 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 78 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 78 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 77 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 158 | 77 |
| Roman Mendez R 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 20.8% | 11.1% | 3.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 230 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.