Spencer Howard
P
Sacramento River Cats
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 63 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 110
ERA4.75
FIP4.84
K%22.9%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%12.2%
ROS IP63
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4093.8
Whiff%
p4124.0%
K%
p2718.8%
xwOBA vs
p120.357
CU (7%)
SL-3.1 (25%)
FB-3.8 (51%)
CH-3.8 (17%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 23 | 23 | 112 | 465 | 147 | 40 | 6 | 100% | 4.9 | 23.4% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 1.8% | 3.78 | 3.40 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 23 | 23 | 112 | 465 | 147 | 40 | 6 | 100% | 4.9 | 31.6% | 8.6% | 23.0% | 1.3% | 3.78 | 2.24 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 15 | 71 | 270 | 94 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 4.7 | 27.4% | 6.3% | 21.1% | 1.3% | 2.03 | 2.29 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 15 | 71 | 270 | 94 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 4.7 | 34.8% | 5.9% | 28.9% | 1.5% | 2.03 | 1.86 | — |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 6 | 6 | 24 | 113 | 23 | 10 | 6 | 100% | 4.1 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 5.1% | 5.92 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 6 | 6 | 24 | 113 | 23 | 10 | 6 | 100% | 4.1 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 5.3% | 5.92 | 5.65 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 73 | 323 | 83 | 36 | 8 | 85% | 2.8 | 24.5% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 2.5% | 5.52 | 3.82 | +0.9 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 73 | 323 | 83 | 36 | 8 | 85% | 2.8 | 25.7% | 11.1% | 14.6% | 2.5% | 5.52 | 3.73 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 20 | 97 | 433 | 105 | 39 | 18 | 83% | 4.0 | 22.2% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 4.4% | 5.77 | 4.80 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 20 | 97 | 433 | 105 | 39 | 18 | 83% | 4.0 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 15.2% | 4.2% | 5.77 | 4.56 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 2 | 24 | 109 | 36 | 10 | 9 | 13% | 1.6 | 32.9% | 8.1% | 24.8% | 9.4% | 7.40 | 6.48 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 2 | 24 | 109 | 36 | 10 | 9 | 13% | 1.6 | 33.0% | 9.2% | 23.9% | 8.3% | 7.40 | 6.18 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 13 | 91 | 419 | 114 | 41 | 17 | 42% | 2.9 | 24.7% | 10.1% | 14.6% | 4.3% | 6.45 | 4.65 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 13 | 91 | 419 | 114 | 41 | 17 | 42% | 2.9 | 27.2% | 9.8% | 17.4% | 4.1% | 6.45 | 4.38 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 61 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 10 | 10 | 59 | 248 | 55 | 27 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.1% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 3.8% | 4.94 | 5.07 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 9 | 9 | 54 | 229 | 49 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 4.0% | 5.17 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 4 | 4 | 22 | 93 | 21 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.1% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 3.8% | 4.94 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 27 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 4.0% | 5.17 | 5.33 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 56 | 41 | 196 | 901 | 183 | 92 | 40 | 73% | 3.5 | 20.3% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 4.4% | 6.49 | 5.09 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 42 | 200 | 921 | 187 | 94 | 41 | 73% | 3.5 | 20.3% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 4.4% | 6.49 | 5.09 | +0.7 | ||
| Career | — | 140 | 101 | 492 | 2132 | 521 | 202 | 73 | 72% | 3.5 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 14.9% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 4.11 | +7.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 41 | 200 | 866 | 212 | 82 | 30 | 72% | 3.5 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 14.9% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 4.11 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Spencer Howard (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.84 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 3.5% | — | 5.19 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 113 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 78 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 76 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 72 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.22 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.3% | .333 | 4.92 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.30 | 2.32 | 676 | 69 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 69 |
| Aaron Wilkerson R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.76 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 4.0% | .291 | 3.31 | 24.6% | 19.0% | 112 | -1.45 | 2.75 | 902 | 69 |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 68 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.05 | 23.9% | 10.5% | 3.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.53 | 507 | 68 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.14 | 19.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 355 | 67 |
| Yohan Pino R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 67 |
| Tim Adleman R 2025 · 5.42 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.42 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 5.2% | .276 | 4.57 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 117 | -0.85 | 3.61 | 605 | 67 |
| Justin Masterson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 67 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.4% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .299 | 3.66 | 17.1% | 11.3% | 114 | -0.51 | 3.26 | 493 | 66 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 66 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 64 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.84 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.10 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.26 | 3.84 | 567 | 64 |
| Burch Smith R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.94 | 22.6% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .271 | 4.11 | 14.9% | 9.0% | 43 | +0.17 | 3.39 | 382 | 63 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.58 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .293 | 5.01 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 170 | +0.43 | 3.89 | 250 | 63 |
| Bryan Brickhouse R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.91 | 18.8% | 11.7% | 3.5% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 214 | 63 |
| Matt Harvey R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.28 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 4.4% | .299 | 5.20 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 194 | -0.08 | 2.90 | 806 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 22.1% | 11.0% | 1.46 | 4.94 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |