Spencer Howard — OGILVIE

Spencer Howard P Sacramento River Cats

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 108

ERA4.74

FIP4.81

K%22.2%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p4124.0%

p2718.8%

xwOBA vs

p120.357

CU (7%)

SL-3.1 (25%)

FB-3.8 (51%)

CH-3.8 (17%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	22	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	23	23	112	465	147	40	6	100%	4.9	23.4%	10.2%	13.2%	1.7%	3.78	3.36	—
2018	22	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	23	23	112	465	147	40	6	100%	4.9	31.6%	8.6%	23.0%	1.3%	3.78	2.24	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	15	71	270	94	16	4	100%	4.7	27.4%	6.3%	21.1%	1.4%	2.03	2.33	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	15	71	270	94	16	4	100%	4.7	34.8%	5.9%	28.9%	1.5%	2.03	1.86	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	6	6	24	113	23	10	6	100%	4.1	20.4%	8.8%	11.5%	5.0%	5.92	5.22	-0.1
2020	24	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	6	6	24	113	23	10	6	100%	4.1	20.4%	8.8%	11.5%	5.3%	5.92	5.65	-0.2
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	73	323	83	36	8	85%	2.8	24.5%	11.3%	13.3%	2.4%	5.52	3.76	+1.0
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	73	323	83	36	8	85%	2.8	25.7%	11.1%	14.6%	2.5%	5.52	3.73	+1.0
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	97	433	105	39	18	83%	4.0	22.2%	9.3%	12.9%	4.2%	5.77	4.69	+0.2
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	97	433	105	39	18	83%	4.0	24.2%	9.0%	15.2%	4.2%	5.77	4.56	+0.4
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	2	24	109	36	10	9	13%	1.6	31.0%	6.9%	24.1%	9.5%	7.40	6.58	-0.6
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	2	24	109	36	10	9	13%	1.6	31.0%	6.9%	24.1%	9.5%	7.40	6.58	-0.6
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	2	24	109	36	10	9	13%	1.6	33.0%	9.2%	23.9%	8.3%	7.40	6.18	-0.5
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	13	91	419	114	41	17	42%	2.9	23.7%	9.1%	14.5%	4.3%	6.45	4.63	-0.1
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	13	91	419	114	41	17	42%	2.9	23.7%	9.1%	14.5%	4.3%	6.45	4.63	-0.1
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	13	91	419	114	41	17	42%	2.9	27.2%	9.8%	17.4%	4.1%	6.45	4.38	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			47	32	144	683	136	68	31	68%	3.1	19.9%	10.0%	10.0%	4.5%	7.00	5.43	-0.9
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	CLE	1	1	5	21	5	2	1	100%	5.0	22.2%	9.9%	12.3%	3.6%	4.74	4.81	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	CLE	10	10	59	248	53	25	9	100%	5.9	21.4%	10.2%	11.2%	3.8%	4.92	5.04	-0.1
2028	32	MLB MLE	CLE	9	9	54	229	47	24	9	100%	6.0	20.6%	10.6%	10.0%	4.0%	5.15	5.30	-0.2
2027	31	MLB CTX	CLE	4	4	22	93	20	10	4	100%	5.5	21.4%	10.2%	11.2%	3.8%	4.92	5.04	-0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	CLE	5	5	30	127	26	13	5	100%	6.0	20.6%	10.6%	10.0%	4.0%	5.15	5.30	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	41	196	901	182	91	40	73%	3.5	20.2%	10.1%	10.1%	4.4%	6.49	5.08	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		57	42	200	921	186	93	41	73%	3.5	20.2%	10.1%	10.1%	4.4%	6.49	5.08	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		140	101	492	2132	514	197	71	72%	3.5	24.1%	9.2%	14.9%	3.4%	4.95	4.07	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	41	200	866	209	80	29	72%	3.5	24.1%	9.2%	14.9%	3.4%	4.95	4.07	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Howard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	22.2%	9.9%	3.6%	—	5.16	21.0%	10.6%	113	+0.35	—	—	—
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	79
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	78
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	74
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	205	73
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	71
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	70
Michael Mariot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	30	SP	5.01	19.8%	11.1%	4.0%	.333	5.03	15.8%	7.4%	182	+0.02	2.40	676	70
Hiram Burgos R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	29	SP	4.94	19.3%	7.5%	4.6%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	355	69
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	69
Aaron Wilkerson R 2019 · 4.67 FIP	30	SP-	4.67	20.9%	9.8%	3.8%	.291	3.33	24.6%	19.0%	112	-1.34	2.75	902	69
Raynel Espinal R 2022 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP-	4.41	23.9%	10.5%	3.6%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	507	68
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	493	68
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	68
Justin Masterson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	30	SP-	4.10	18.2%	10.5%	2.2%	.307	3.73	17.3%	6.4%	196	-0.37	3.50	269	67
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	66
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	66
Tyler Cloyd R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	30	SP-	4.51	16.0%	6.8%	3.5%	.293	4.99	17.2%	9.8%	170	+0.48	3.89	250	65
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	65
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	65
Clayton Mortensen R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP-	4.41	15.0%	12.6%	1.8%	.289	4.43	22.0%	10.3%	115	+0.02	4.31	221	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	21.4%	10.2%	1.46	4.93
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63