Pierce Johnson
P
Cincinnati Reds
Age 35
RHP
6'2" / 202 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION51 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA3.73
FIP3.76
xFIP3.54
SIERA3.01
K%25.6%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%17.0%
IP51
K†6565
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
FB+0.6 (34%)
CU (66%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 16 | 16 | 95 | 383 | 72 | 32 | 4 | 15.2% | 9.2% | 1.1% | 2.08 | 3.61 | +1.9 |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 22 | 11 | 63 | 288 | 75 | 43 | 8 | 22.9% | 15.7% | 3.9% | 6.14 | 5.30 | -0.5 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 44 | 1 | 55 | 241 | 76 | 27 | 3 | 27.8% | 11.7% | 1.8% | 4.23 | 3.20 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 54 | 0 | 66 | 278 | 66 | 31 | 6 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 4.88 | 3.93 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 24 | 0 | 20 | 80 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 33.8% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 2.70 | 3.15 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 63 | 2 | 59 | 244 | 77 | 24 | 6 | 31.6% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 3.22 | 3.13 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 21 | 1 | 20 | 84 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 32.8% | 12.5% | 1.7% | 3.98 | 2.83 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 67 | 0 | 63 | 277 | 90 | 29 | 10 | 32.5% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 4.02 | 3.66 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 58 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 67 | 24 | 6 | 28.4% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 3.67 | 3.39 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 65 | 0 | 59 | 238 | 59 | 17 | 8 | 24.8% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 3.05 | 3.76 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 24 | 0 | 22 | 92 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 3.27 | 4.16 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | CIN | 25 | — | 25 | 105 | 27 | 9 | 3 | 25.6% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 3.73 | 3.76 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 35 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 47 | 197 | 47 | 17 | 6 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 3.51 | 3.94 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 48 | 18 | 7 | 25.0% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 4.31 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 458 | 31 | 579 | 2441 | 621 | 261 | 63 | 25.5% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 3.76 | 3.73 | +11.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 158 | 11 | 200 | 844 | 215 | 90 | 22 | 25.5% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 3.76 | 3.73 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Pierce Johnson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.97 | 27.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | — | 4.46 | 25.0% | 15.8% | 45 | +0.49 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 77 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 73 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.96 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 284 | 72 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 72 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 70 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 70 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.43 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .246 | 3.44 | 25.1% | 17.7% | 60 | +0.01 | 2.01 | 380 | 70 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 68 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.86 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .284 | 2.47 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.39 | 1.42 | 240 | 68 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 68 |
| Luis Ayala R 2028 · 3.02 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.02 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.22 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.20 | 2.99 | 119 | 67 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2025 · 2.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.77 | 25.4% | 7.4% | 1.6% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 186 | 66 |
| Josh Lowey R 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.43 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.28 | 426 | 66 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 66 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.71 | 21.7% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .276 | 3.61 | 19.7% | 9.1% | 33 | -0.10 | 3.08 | 336 | 65 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 2.78 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.78 | 22.3% | 7.3% | 1.2% | .248 | 4.25 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 62 | +1.47 | 2.78 | 326 | 65 |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.69 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 248 | 65 |
| Tony Pena Jr. R 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.91 | 21.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | .249 | 3.54 | 10.9% | 6.6% | 22 | +0.63 | 2.79 | 128 | 65 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.43 | 25.7% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .299 | 3.15 | 27.7% | 19.7% | 183 | -0.28 | 1.99 | 488 | 64 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.55 | 26.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .303 | 5.07 | 17.5% | 4.8% | 12 | +1.52 | 3.32 | 132 | 63 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.