Pierce Johnson

P Cincinnati Reds

Age 36 RHP 6'2" / 202 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	33	MLBATL	58	0	56	3.67	3.38	28.4%	10.2%	0.8
2025	34	MLBATL	65	0	59	3.05	3.73	24.8%	7.1%	0.6
2026	35	MIX2 levels	57	1	50	4.71	4.61	20.0%	8.8%	-0.0	K 19.9% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.49
2027PROJ	36	MLBCIN	39	0	41	4.22	4.41	23.0%	8.5%	0.1
2028PROJ	37	MLBCIN	21	0	22	4.57	4.81	21.9%	9.2%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.3 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo68

K%34

xwOBA vs28

Form4.32 ERA (proj 4.22) · K 18.9% (proj 23.0%) · BB 8.1% (proj 8.5%) ▼ last 90d · 17 IP through Oct 27

CompsKeiichi Yabu (age 36) · Hirokazu Sawamura (age 34) · Kazuhiro Sasaki (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.22

FIP4.41

K%23.0%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%14.5%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p4124.0%

p3419.9%

xwOBA vs

p280.338

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	24	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	16	16	95	383	72	32	4	100%	5.9	15.2%	9.2%	6.0%	1.2%	2.08	3.63	—
2015	24	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	16	16	95	383	72	32	4	100%	5.9	18.8%	8.4%	10.4%	1.0%	2.08	3.14	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	22	11	63	288	75	43	8	50%	2.9	22.9%	15.7%	7.2%	3.4%	6.14	5.03	—
2016	25	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	22	11	63	288	75	43	8	50%	2.9	26.0%	14.9%	11.1%	2.8%	6.14	4.42	—
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	1	55	241	76	27	3	2%	1.3	27.8%	11.7%	16.2%	1.6%	4.23	3.09	+1.0
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	1	55	241	76	27	3	2%	1.3	31.5%	11.2%	20.3%	1.2%	4.23	2.52	+1.4
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	66	278	66	31	6	0%	1.2	22.4%	11.3%	11.1%	2.3%	4.88	3.92	+0.5
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	66	278	66	31	6	0%	1.2	23.7%	11.2%	12.6%	2.2%	4.88	3.69	+0.7
2020	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	24	0	20	80	27	9	2	0%	0.8	33.8%	11.2%	22.5%	2.4%	2.70	3.01	+0.4
2020	29	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	24	0	20	80	27	9	2	0%	0.8	33.8%	11.2%	22.5%	2.5%	2.70	3.05	+0.4
2021	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	63	2	59	244	77	24	6	3%	0.9	31.6%	9.8%	21.7%	2.4%	3.22	3.00	+1.1
2021	30	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	63	2	59	244	77	24	6	3%	0.9	31.6%	9.8%	21.7%	2.5%	3.22	3.03	+1.1
2022	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	1	20	84	28	8	1	5%	1.0	32.8%	12.5%	20.3%	1.5%	3.98	2.75	+0.4
2022	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	1	20	84	28	8	1	5%	1.0	33.3%	9.5%	23.8%	1.2%	3.98	2.17	+0.6
2023	32	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	67	0	63	277	90	29	10	0%	0.9	32.5%	10.5%	22.0%	3.6%	4.02	3.66	+0.7
2023	32	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	67	0	63	277	90	29	10	0%	0.9	32.5%	10.5%	22.0%	3.6%	4.02	3.69	+0.6
2024	33	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	58	0	56	236	67	24	6	0%	1.0	28.4%	10.2%	18.2%	2.5%	3.67	3.39	+0.8
2024	33	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	58	0	56	236	67	24	6	0%	1.0	28.4%	10.2%	18.2%	2.5%	3.67	3.39	+0.8
2024	33	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	58	0	56	236	67	24	6	0%	1.0	28.4%	10.2%	18.2%	2.5%	3.67	3.38	+0.8
2025	34	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	65	0	59	238	59	17	8	0%	0.9	24.8%	7.1%	17.6%	3.4%	3.05	3.76	+0.6
2025	34	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	65	0	59	238	59	17	8	0%	0.9	24.8%	7.1%	17.6%	3.4%	3.05	3.76	+0.6
2025	34	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	65	0	59	238	59	17	8	0%	0.9	24.8%	7.1%	17.6%	3.4%	3.05	3.73	+0.6
2026	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	1	50	215	43	19	8	2%	0.9	19.9%	9.0%	10.9%	3.5%	4.71	4.49	+0.0
2026	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	1	50	215	43	19	8	2%	0.9	19.9%	9.0%	10.9%	3.5%	4.71	4.49	+0.0
2026	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	1	50	215	43	19	8	2%	0.9	20.0%	8.8%	11.2%	3.7%	4.71	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			386	2	364	1543	421	152	46	1%	0.9	27.3%	9.9%	17.4%	3.0%	3.90	3.68	+3.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	36	MLB	CIN	39	0	41	173	40	15	6	0%	1.1	23.0%	8.5%	14.5%	3.3%	4.22	4.41	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	CIN	21	0	22	94	21	9	3	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.2%	12.7%	3.7%	4.57	4.81	-0.1
2028	37	MLB CTX	CIN	21	0	22	93	20	9	3	0%	1.0	21.9%	9.2%	12.7%	3.7%	4.57	4.81	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		407	2	387	1637	442	161	49	0%	0.9	27.0%	9.8%	17.2%	3.0%	3.94	3.72	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		211	1	200	847	229	83	25	0%	0.9	27.0%	9.8%	17.2%	3.0%	3.94	3.72	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		491	32	606	2564	644	273	65	7%	1.2	25.1%	10.6%	14.5%	2.6%	3.86	3.73	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		162	11	200	846	212	90	22	7%	1.2	25.1%	10.6%	14.5%	2.6%	3.86	3.73	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2018 AAASacramento River Cats · 23 IPFIP 2.32 → 2.78 (+0.46)K% 32.6% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.61%	—	×0.880	28.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.87%	—	×1.050	11.41%
HR / BF /BF	1.09%	÷0.998	×1.100	1.20%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.32 → 2.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAIowa Cubs · 54 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.09 (+0.55)K% 31.6% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.62%	—	×0.880	27.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.050	11.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.28%	÷0.899	×1.100	1.57%

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAIowa Cubs · 63 IPFIP 4.32 → 5.03 (+0.72)K% 26.0% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.04%	—	×0.880	22.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.93%	—	×1.050	15.68%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷0.890	×1.100	3.43%

Result: FIP 4.32 → 5.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AATennessee Smokies · 95 IPFIP 3.14 → 3.63 (+0.49)K% 18.8% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.80%	—	×0.810	15.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.36%	—	×1.100	9.19%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷1.048	×1.200	1.20%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 3.14 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pierce Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	23.0%	8.5%	3.3%	—	4.81	21.9%	12.7%	22	+0.40	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	71
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	71
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2003 · 3.30 FIP	35	SU	3.30	19.3%	8.7%	1.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	223	71
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	70
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	67
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	66
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	65
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	65
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	63
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	62
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	61
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	59
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	35	SU	5.13	13.1%	7.8%	3.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	173	59
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	12.4%	6.0%	1.1%	.328	3.26	14.8%	10.4%	69	-0.17	2.99	119	58
Jay Jackson R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	36	SU	5.31	25.4%	7.9%	6.1%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	261	57
Matt Bush R 2022 · 3.73 FIP	36	SU	3.73	30.3%	6.6%	4.3%	.224	3.79	26.2%	17.5%	36	+0.06	2.87	249	57
Daniel Bard R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	36	SU	3.62	26.3%	11.5%	2.3%	.337	3.64	24.6%	10.3%	110	+0.02	2.56	456	57
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	57
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	54
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	52

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	48	26.6%	10.1%	1.18	3.97
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Dominic Leone ('24)	2.1	54	23.9%	10.4%	1.26	3.94
Hansel Robles ('22)	2.1	61	25.3%	10.2%	1.20	4.11
Matt Barnes ('24)	2.3	52	29.0%	10.6%	1.02	4.21
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*
Tony Fossas ('88-'99, 2 WAR*)	2.1	42	21.9%*	9.3%*	0.99*	3.88*