Pierce Johnson
P
Cincinnati Reds
+0.6
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'2" / 202 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA3.89
FIP4.08
xFIP3.54
SIERA3.01
K%26.0%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%17.4%
IP51
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†6060
FB+0.6 (32%)
CU (68%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 16 | 16 | 95 | 383 | 72 | 32 | 4 | 15.2% | 9.2% | 1.2% | 2.08 | 3.63 | +1.8 |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 22 | 11 | 63 | 288 | 75 | 43 | 8 | 22.9% | 15.7% | 3.4% | 6.14 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 44 | 1 | 55 | 241 | 76 | 27 | 3 | 27.8% | 11.7% | 1.5% | 4.23 | 3.06 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 54 | 0 | 66 | 278 | 66 | 31 | 6 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 2.3% | 4.88 | 3.93 | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 24 | 0 | 20 | 80 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 33.8% | 11.2% | 2.0% | 2.70 | 2.76 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 63 | 2 | 59 | 244 | 77 | 24 | 6 | 31.6% | 9.8% | 2.4% | 3.22 | 3.02 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 21 | 1 | 20 | 84 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 32.8% | 12.5% | 1.3% | 3.98 | 2.65 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 67 | 0 | 63 | 277 | 90 | 29 | 10 | 32.5% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 4.02 | 3.58 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 58 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 67 | 24 | 6 | 28.4% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 3.67 | 3.50 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 65 | 0 | 59 | 238 | 59 | 17 | 8 | 24.8% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 3.05 | 3.75 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 9 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.68 | — | — |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | CHC | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 50 | 16 | 6 | 27.0% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 3.86 | 4.01 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 35 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 51 | 216 | 58 | 17 | 7 | 26.7% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 3.83 | 3.43 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 52 | 17 | 7 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 3.3% | 4.02 | 4.14 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | CHC | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 47 | 16 | 6 | 25.1% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 4.20 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | CHC | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 42 | 15 | 6 | 24.3% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 4.38 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 443 | 31 | 564 | 2381 | 609 | 254 | 58 | 25.6% | 10.7% | 2.4% | 3.78 | 3.63 | +10.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 157 | 11 | 200 | 844 | 216 | 90 | 21 | 25.6% | 10.7% | 2.4% | 3.78 | 3.63 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Pierce Johnson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.01 | 27.0% | 8.6% | 3.1% | — | 4.31 | 25.2% | 16.5% | 133 | +0.30 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 79 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 77 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 2.39 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.59 | 1.43 | 240 | 75 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 75 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 75 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 75 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.97 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 284 | 74 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 74 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 73 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 73 |
| Luis Ayala R 2028 · 3.03 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.03 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.25 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.22 | 3.01 | 119 | 72 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 70 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 70 |
| Josh Lowey R 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.45 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 426 | 69 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.46 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.5% | .246 | 3.43 | 25.1% | 17.7% | 60 | -0.03 | 2.00 | 380 | 69 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.72 | 21.7% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 303 | 69 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.89 | 22.3% | 7.3% | 1.4% | .248 | 4.29 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 62 | +1.40 | 2.89 | 326 | 69 |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.94 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 248 | 69 |
| Tony Pena Jr. R 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.89 | 21.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | .249 | 3.43 | 10.9% | 6.6% | 22 | +0.54 | 2.80 | 128 | 68 |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 2.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.86 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | 3.60 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.74 | 2.45 | 200 | 67 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.