TJ Nichols

P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 189 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#691ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	ATB	18	14	71	2.90	2.72	22.9%	7.6%	—	K 17.0% · BB 9.0% · FIP 3.71
2025	23	MIX2 levels	25	24	134	2.90	3.48	29.8%	5.7%	—	K 23.2% · BB 6.5% · FIP 4.91
2026	24	MIX2 levels	22	22	95	5.70	4.87	21.6%	10.0%	—	K 17.5% · BB 11.6% · FIP 5.98
2027PROJ	25	MLBTB	1	1	3	4.99	4.99	20.1%	8.5%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBTB	9	9	56	4.83	4.82	20.7%	8.4%	0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBTB	12	12	74	4.80	4.81	20.8%	8.4%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 5.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 84%

CompsRiley Gowens (age 24) · Chandler Champlain (age 25) · Brian Edgington (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%20.1%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%11.6%

Proj IP154

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 154 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	3	2	5	18	4	1	0	67%	1.7	22.2%	5.6%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.93	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	3	2	5	18	4	1	0	67%	1.7	22.2%	5.6%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
2024	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	18	14	71	288	66	22	3	78%	4.0	17.0%	9.0%	7.9%	1.6%	2.90	3.71	—
2024	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	18	14	71	288	66	22	3	78%	4.0	17.0%	9.0%	7.9%	1.6%	2.90	3.71	—
2024	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	18	14	71	288	66	22	3	78%	4.0	22.9%	7.6%	15.3%	1.0%	2.90	2.72	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	134	524	156	30	21	96%	5.3	23.2%	6.5%	16.7%	5.4%	2.90	4.91	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	134	524	156	30	21	96%	5.3	23.2%	6.5%	16.7%	5.4%	2.90	4.91	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	134	524	156	30	21	96%	5.3	29.8%	5.7%	24.0%	4.0%	2.90	3.48	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	95	408	88	41	17	100%	4.3	17.5%	11.6%	5.9%	5.3%	5.70	5.98	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	95	408	88	41	17	100%	4.3	17.5%	11.6%	5.9%	5.3%	5.70	5.98	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	95	408	88	41	17	100%	4.3	21.6%	10.0%	11.5%	4.2%	5.70	4.87	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TB	1	1	3	13	3	1	0	100%	3.0	20.1%	8.5%	11.6%	3.9%	4.99	4.99	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	21	21	128	541	112	46	21	100%	6.1	20.7%	8.4%	12.3%	3.8%	4.89	4.88	+0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	TB	19	19	116	490	102	41	19	100%	6.1	20.8%	8.4%	12.4%	3.8%	4.86	4.87	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	108	456	95	39	18	100%	6.0	20.8%	8.6%	12.2%	3.8%	4.88	4.92	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	100	422	87	37	17	100%	5.9	20.5%	8.8%	11.8%	4.0%	4.97	5.03	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	91	383	77	35	16	100%	6.0	20.2%	9.0%	11.1%	4.2%	5.12	5.21	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	56	236	49	20	9	100%	6.2	20.7%	8.4%	12.3%	3.7%	4.83	4.82	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	74	312	65	26	11	100%	6.2	20.8%	8.4%	12.4%	3.7%	4.80	4.81	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	82	346	72	30	13	100%	5.9	20.8%	8.6%	12.2%	3.7%	4.82	4.86	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	82	346	71	30	13	100%	5.9	20.5%	8.8%	11.8%	3.9%	4.91	4.97	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	TB	13	13	78	329	66	30	13	100%	6.0	20.2%	9.0%	11.1%	4.1%	5.06	5.15	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		62	62	371	1565	322	136	60	100%	6.0	20.6%	8.7%	11.9%	3.8%	4.89	4.55	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	174	73	32	100%	6.0	20.6%	8.7%	11.9%	3.8%	4.89	4.55	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		68	62	305	1238	246	108	54	91%	4.5	19.9%	8.8%	11.1%	4.4%	3.72	4.94	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	41	200	813	161	71	36	91%	4.5	19.9%	8.8%	11.1%	4.4%	3.72	4.94	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 90 IPFIP 5.02 → 5.98 (+0.96)K% 21.6% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.65%	—	×0.810	17.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.57%	—	×1.100	11.62%
HR / BF /BF	4.38%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.26%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.02 → 5.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Rays · 5 IPFIP 1.41 → 1.95 (+0.54)K% 20.0% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.680	13.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.41 → 1.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 97 IPFIP 4.02 → 5.67 (+1.65)K% 30.4% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.36%	—	×0.770	23.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.36%	—	×1.150	6.16%
HR / BF /BF	5.10%	÷0.930	×1.250	6.85%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 4.02 → 5.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 37 IPFIP 2.01 → 2.67 (+0.66)K% 28.0% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.03%	—	×0.810	22.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.82%	—	×1.100	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.76%	÷0.922	×1.200	0.99%

Result: FIP 2.01 → 2.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ACharleston RiverDogs · 71 IPFIP 2.70 → 3.71 (+1.01)K% 22.9% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.92%	—	×0.740	16.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.64%	—	×1.180	9.01%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷0.824	×1.300	1.64%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 65).

Result: FIP 2.70 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
TJ Nichols (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.9%	—	4.89	20.8%	12.3%	352	-0.10	—	—	—
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	84
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	83
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	82
Mason Black R 2024 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	19.7%	9.3%	3.9%	.304	5.29	17.0%	7.1%	213	+0.56	3.95	569	81
Brady Feigl R 2021 · 5.26 FIP	25	SP	5.26	19.4%	9.6%	4.7%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	257	81
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	80
David Hess R 2018 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP	4.69	17.5%	8.5%	3.6%	.267	5.99	20.8%	13.3%	187	+1.30	3.97	751	80
Justin Armbruester R 2024 · 5.73 FIP	25	SP	5.73	20.2%	11.1%	5.3%	.289	1.49	27.5%	21.9%	15	-4.24	1.49	373	80
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	80
Jordan Romano R 2018 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.7%	7.9%	3.3%	.274	3.78	31.7%	22.0%	131	-0.65	2.40	692	79
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	79
Josh DeGraaf R 2018 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	17.2%	7.1%	3.6%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	320	79
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	78
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	78
D.J. Brown R 2016 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP-	4.43	16.7%	8.1%	3.1%	.317	4.49	16.3%	9.3%	74	+0.06	4.02	348	78
Shao-Ching Chiang R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	18.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	575	78
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	78
Mike Vasil R 2024 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP	5.03	15.4%	7.7%	4.1%	.310	3.89	19.4%	8.3%	101	-1.14	3.63	429	78
Mike Wright Jr. R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	15.7%	7.9%	2.3%	.260	4.25	17.2%	9.8%	343	+0.18	3.76	725	78
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	116	20.5%	8.6%	1.51	4.95
Jack Armstrong ('88-'94, 2 WAR*)	3.9	131	19.2%*	9.2%*	1.59*	4.89*
Brent Strom ('72-'77, 0 WAR*)	2.5	125	19.3%*	8.2%*	1.53*	4.78*
Dan Straily ('19)	4.0	115	19.8%	9.1%	1.60	4.56
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
Matt Beech ('98)	1.5	98	20.2%	10.0%	1.59	5.37
Mark Gardner ('89-'01, 7 WAR*)	8.8	136	19.6%*	8.0%*	1.44*	4.84*