TJ Nichols — OGILVIE

TJ Nichols P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 189 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.6 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION95 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.22

FIP4.22

K%23.0%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%17.1%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 108 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$29M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5550

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$12M	+$9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	3	2	5	18	4	1	0	67%	1.7	22.2%	5.6%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.93	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	3	2	5	18	4	1	0	67%	1.7	22.2%	5.6%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.93	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	3	2	5	18	4	1	0	67%	1.7	22.2%	5.6%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
2024	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	18	14	71	288	66	22	3	78%	4.0	17.0%	9.0%	7.9%	1.6%	2.90	3.71	—
2024	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	18	14	71	288	66	22	3	78%	4.0	17.0%	9.0%	7.9%	1.6%	2.90	3.71	—
2024	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	18	14	71	288	66	22	3	78%	4.0	22.9%	7.6%	15.3%	1.0%	2.90	2.72	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	134	524	156	30	21	96%	5.3	23.2%	6.5%	16.7%	5.4%	2.90	4.91	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	134	524	156	30	21	96%	5.3	23.2%	6.5%	16.7%	5.4%	2.90	4.91	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	134	524	156	30	21	96%	5.3	29.8%	5.7%	24.0%	4.0%	2.90	3.48	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	22	22	95	408	88	41	17	100%	4.3	17.5%	11.6%	5.9%	5.3%	5.70	5.98	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	22	22	95	408	88	41	17	100%	4.3	17.5%	11.6%	5.9%	5.3%	5.70	5.98	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	TB	2	2	5	20	4	0	0	100%	2.5	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	1.80	1.41	—
2026	24	AA RAW	TB	20	20	90	388	84	41	17	100%	4.5	21.6%	10.6%	11.1%	4.4%	5.92	5.02	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	TB	2	2	13	55	13	3	2	100%	6.6	23.0%	5.9%	17.1%	3.5%	4.22	4.22	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	108	463	101	44	19	—	—	21.7%	9.6%	12.2%	4.1%	5.52	5.76	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TB	27	27	156	657	153	39	23	100%	5.8	23.3%	6.0%	17.3%	3.5%	4.19	4.17	+1.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	26	26	156	657	154	40	23	100%	6.0	23.4%	6.0%	17.4%	3.4%	4.17	4.15	+1.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	TB	26	26	153	647	151	40	22	100%	5.9	23.3%	6.2%	17.1%	3.5%	4.19	4.19	+1.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	TB	25	25	149	628	145	40	22	100%	5.9	23.2%	6.4%	16.8%	3.5%	4.25	4.28	+1.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	TB	24	24	142	600	137	40	22	100%	5.9	22.9%	6.6%	16.3%	3.7%	4.35	4.41	+0.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	TB	22	22	134	564	127	39	22	100%	6.1	22.6%	6.9%	15.7%	3.9%	4.49	4.59	+0.5
2033	31	MLB MLE	TB	21	21	124	526	117	38	22	100%	5.9	22.2%	7.3%	14.9%	4.1%	4.67	4.79	+0.2
2034	32	MLB MLE	TB	19	19	115	486	106	37	21	100%	6.1	21.7%	7.7%	14.1%	4.4%	4.88	5.02	-0.2
2035	33	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	106	446	95	36	21	100%	5.9	21.2%	8.1%	13.1%	4.6%	5.11	5.27	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	68	287	67	17	10	100%	5.7	23.3%	6.0%	17.3%	3.6%	4.25	4.23	+0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	17	17	104	439	103	27	15	100%	6.1	23.4%	6.0%	17.4%	3.5%	4.23	4.21	+0.9
2029	27	MLB CTX	TB	20	20	119	502	117	31	18	100%	6.0	23.3%	6.2%	17.1%	3.6%	4.25	4.25	+1.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	TB	21	21	125	528	122	34	19	100%	6.0	23.2%	6.4%	16.8%	3.7%	4.31	4.34	+0.9
2031	29	MLB CTX	TB	21	21	124	524	120	35	20	100%	5.9	22.9%	6.6%	16.3%	3.8%	4.41	4.47	+0.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	TB	20	20	120	507	114	35	20	100%	6.0	22.6%	6.9%	15.7%	4.0%	4.55	4.65	+0.4
2033	31	MLB CTX	TB	19	19	114	481	107	35	20	100%	6.0	22.2%	7.3%	14.9%	4.2%	4.74	4.86	+0.1
2034	32	MLB CTX	TB	18	18	107	452	98	35	20	100%	5.9	21.7%	7.7%	14.1%	4.5%	4.95	5.09	-0.1
2035	33	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	99	418	89	34	20	100%	6.2	21.2%	8.1%	13.1%	4.8%	5.19	5.35	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		164	164	981	4141	938	282	164	100%	6.0	22.7%	6.8%	15.8%	4.0%	4.54	4.22	+7.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	191	58	33	100%	6.0	22.7%	6.8%	15.8%	4.0%	4.54	4.22	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		68	62	305	1238	246	108	54	91%	4.5	19.9%	8.8%	11.1%	4.4%	3.72	4.94	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	41	200	813	161	71	36	91%	4.5	19.9%	8.8%	11.1%	4.4%	3.72	4.94	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
TJ Nichols (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.22	23.0%	5.9%	3.5%	—	4.17	23.4%	17.3%	464	-0.05	—	—	—
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	82
Connor McCullough R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	21.8%	6.4%	4.7%	.280	4.09	19.9%	12.5%	148	-0.57	3.68	261	82
Alex Faedo R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP	3.73	22.9%	5.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	18.0%	7.8%	54	+0.79	3.66	456	81
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	820	80
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	79
Cal Quantrill R 2019 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP	3.89	19.6%	6.2%	3.0%	.297	3.87	18.4%	11.7%	368	-0.02	2.02	1,281	79
Davis Daniel R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP	3.93	25.8%	7.7%	3.7%	.313	4.18	19.1%	12.1%	283	+0.25	3.04	593	79
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.98	22.8%	17.1%	404	+0.02	3.18	510	79
Erasmo Ramírez R 2015 · 3.62 FIP	25	SP-	3.62	18.9%	6.0%	2.5%	.267	4.64	18.4%	13.0%	286	+1.02	2.92	908	77
Drew Hutchison R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	24	SP	4.12	19.4%	6.6%	3.3%	.335	4.38	18.4%	9.4%	406	+0.26	4.07	1,027	77
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	77
Erik Swanson R 2018 · 3.14 FIP	24	SP	3.14	25.2%	6.9%	2.3%	.271	5.07	22.3%	15.9%	118	+1.93	1.60	606	77
Isaac Coffey R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP	5.00	24.8%	7.5%	5.6%	.266	4.38	22.2%	10.7%	170	-0.62	3.67	287	77
Mike Foltynewicz R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	24	SP	3.97	21.1%	7.6%	3.1%	.280	3.76	23.0%	14.8%	505	-0.21	3.17	938	76
Nick Pivetta R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	24.4%	8.4%	3.5%	.321	3.96	25.6%	17.0%	314	-0.03	1.37	1,583	76
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	76
Hayden Wesneski R 2022 · 3.55 FIP	24	SP	3.55	21.4%	7.4%	2.4%	.261	4.65	23.0%	15.6%	225	+1.10	3.18	546	76
Tanner Gordon R 2022 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	20.8%	8.0%	4.3%	.330	4.58	17.1%	11.7%	363	-0.14	3.83	709	76
Logan Gilbert R 2021 · 3.51 FIP	24	SP	3.51	25.4%	5.2%	3.5%	.286	3.41	25.0%	20.0%	585	-0.10	3.04	1,142	76
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.9	139	22.8%	6.6%	1.46	4.41
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01