TJ Nichols
P
Montgomery Biscuits
Age 24
RHP
6'5" / 189 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.1 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION45 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 98
ERA4.30
FIP4.30
K%23.0%
BB%5.9%
K-BB%17.1%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 110 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Rays | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 67% | 1.7 | 22.2% | 5.6% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.93 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Rays | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 67% | 1.7 | 22.2% | 5.6% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.10 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 18 | 14 | 71 | 288 | 66 | 22 | 3 | 78% | 4.0 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 2.1% | 2.90 | 3.96 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 18 | 14 | 71 | 288 | 66 | 22 | 3 | 78% | 4.0 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 15.3% | 1.0% | 2.90 | 2.72 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 134 | 524 | 156 | 30 | 21 | 96% | 5.3 | 23.2% | 6.5% | 16.7% | 5.8% | 2.90 | 5.15 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 134 | 524 | 156 | 30 | 21 | 96% | 5.3 | 29.8% | 5.7% | 24.0% | 4.0% | 2.90 | 3.48 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 12 | 12 | 45 | 191 | 41 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 3.8 | 17.5% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 5.40 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 63 | 16 | 10 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.0% | 5.9% | 17.1% | 3.7% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 5.9% | 17.1% | 3.6% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 110 | 465 | 104 | 32 | 16 | — | — | 22.4% | 6.9% | 15.5% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.68 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.0% | 5.9% | 17.1% | 3.6% | 4.24 | 3.87 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 27 | 27 | 156 | 657 | 153 | 39 | 24 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.3% | 6.0% | 17.3% | 3.6% | 4.26 | 4.24 | +2.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TB | 26 | 26 | 156 | 657 | 154 | 40 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 17.3% | 3.6% | 4.24 | 4.22 | +2.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TB | 26 | 26 | 153 | 647 | 151 | 40 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.3% | 6.2% | 17.1% | 3.6% | 4.25 | 4.26 | +2.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TB | 25 | 25 | 149 | 628 | 145 | 40 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.2% | 6.4% | 16.8% | 3.7% | 4.31 | 4.34 | +1.8 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 142 | 600 | 137 | 40 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.9% | 6.6% | 16.3% | 3.8% | 4.41 | 4.48 | +1.5 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 134 | 564 | 127 | 39 | 23 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.6% | 6.9% | 15.6% | 4.0% | 4.56 | 4.65 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 124 | 526 | 117 | 38 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.2% | 7.3% | 14.9% | 4.2% | 4.74 | 4.85 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 67 | 17 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.3% | 6.0% | 17.3% | 3.5% | 4.21 | 4.19 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 103 | 27 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 17.3% | 3.5% | 4.19 | 4.17 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 117 | 31 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 6.2% | 17.1% | 3.5% | 4.20 | 4.21 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 122 | 34 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 6.4% | 16.8% | 3.6% | 4.25 | 4.28 | +1.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 120 | 35 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.9% | 6.6% | 16.3% | 3.7% | 4.35 | 4.42 | +1.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 120 | 507 | 114 | 35 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.6% | 6.9% | 15.6% | 3.9% | 4.50 | 4.59 | +1.1 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 107 | 35 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 7.3% | 14.9% | 4.1% | 4.68 | 4.79 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 130 | 130 | 776 | 3278 | 753 | 214 | 121 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.0% | 6.5% | 16.4% | 3.7% | 4.35 | 4.01 | +12.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 55 | 31 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.0% | 6.5% | 16.4% | 3.7% | 4.35 | 4.01 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 58 | 52 | 255 | 1021 | 208 | 81 | 45 | 90% | 4.4 | 20.4% | 7.9% | 12.5% | 4.4% | 3.28 | 4.77 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 41 | 200 | 801 | 163 | 63 | 35 | 90% | 4.4 | 20.4% | 7.9% | 12.5% | 4.4% | 3.28 | 4.77 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| TJ Nichols (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 23.0% | 5.9% | 3.7% | — | 4.24 | 23.4% | 17.3% | 464 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.69 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .336 | 6.45 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.76 | 3.69 | 124 | 82 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 79 |
| Cal Quantrill R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.04 | 19.6% | 6.2% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.87 | 18.4% | 11.7% | 368 | -0.17 | 2.02 | 1,224 | 79 |
| Alex Faedo R 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.39 | 22.9% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .293 | 4.60 | 18.0% | 7.8% | 54 | +1.21 | 3.39 | 438 | 79 |
| Raisel Iglesias R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.56 | 23.7% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .271 | 3.14 | 27.7% | 19.6% | 226 | -0.42 | 1.35 | 797 | 79 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.79 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.56 | 23.9% | 18.1% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.56 | 167 | 79 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.81 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .321 | 5.05 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.24 | 3.81 | 171 | 79 |
| Davis Daniel R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.02 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 3.9% | .313 | 4.34 | 19.6% | 12.2% | 283 | +0.32 | 3.06 | 584 | 78 |
| Garrett Stallings R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.78 | 19.1% | 6.1% | 4.6% | .326 | 4.38 | 18.1% | 9.8% | 306 | -0.40 | 3.20 | 595 | 78 |
| Erasmo Ramírez R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.66 | 18.9% | 6.0% | 2.5% | .267 | 4.71 | 18.4% | 13.0% | 286 | +1.05 | 2.85 | 908 | 77 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.57 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .319 | 6.10 | 15.6% | 0.6% | 19 | +2.53 | 3.57 | 252 | 77 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.69 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .256 | 5.06 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.37 | 3.69 | 333 | 77 |
| Drew Hutchison R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.12 | 19.4% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .335 | 4.54 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 406 | +0.42 | 4.03 | 1,027 | 76 |
| Mike Foltynewicz R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.85 | 21.1% | 7.6% | 2.9% | .280 | 3.76 | 23.0% | 14.8% | 505 | -0.09 | 3.17 | 938 | 76 |
| Luis Cessa R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.59 | 18.0% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .254 | 3.92 | 20.0% | 11.9% | 266 | -0.67 | 3.15 | 891 | 75 |
| Hayden Wesneski R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.54 | 21.4% | 7.4% | 2.4% | .261 | 4.51 | 23.3% | 15.6% | 225 | +0.97 | 3.54 | 487 | 75 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.02 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 4.6% | .279 | 5.06 | 21.5% | 11.8% | 160 | +0.04 | 5.01 | 282 | 75 |
| Mat Latos R 2029 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 75 |
| Kevin Gausman R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.92 | 22.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% | .282 | 4.04 | 21.3% | 14.3% | 550 | +0.12 | 2.34 | 1,876 | 75 |
| Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.84 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.23 | 21.6% | 12.3% | 25 | +0.39 | 3.84 | 254 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 146 | 23.0% | 6.4% | 1.45 | 4.37 |
| J.A. Happ ('21) | 7 | 150 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 1.32 | 4.03 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Dylan Bundy ('22) | 7 | 130 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 1.61 | 4.75 |
| Michael Pineda ('22) | 7 | 109 | 22.9% | 5.0% | 1.43 | 4.35 |
| Mike Fiers ('20) | 6 | 153 | 19.6% | 7.1% | 1.50 | 4.17 |
| Madison Bumgarner ('22) AS×4SS | 8 | 155 | 22.7% | 5.9% | 1.23 | 3.70 |