TJ Nichols
P
Montgomery Biscuits
+1.5
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'5" / 189 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.5 · 2029
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.8%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%14.9%
IP118
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.5peak
2029
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Rays | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 18 | 14 | 71 | 288 | 66 | 22 | 3 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 1.7% | 2.90 | 3.74 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 25 | 24 | 134 | 524 | 156 | 30 | 21 | 23.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 2.90 | 4.94 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.80 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 118 | 497 | 113 | 39 | 18 | 22.8% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +1.1 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 123 | 517 | 118 | 39 | 18 | 22.8% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 4.39 | 4.32 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 131 | 554 | 128 | 43 | 19 | 23.1% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 4.44 | 4.42 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TB | 25 | 25 | 138 | 583 | 135 | 45 | 20 | 23.2% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 4.40 | 4.38 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TB | 26 | 26 | 141 | 596 | 138 | 46 | 20 | 23.1% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 4.39 | 4.38 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TB | 26 | 26 | 141 | 595 | 137 | 46 | 21 | 23.1% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TB | 25 | 25 | 138 | 582 | 133 | 46 | 20 | 22.9% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 4.43 | 4.45 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 134 | 565 | 128 | 45 | 20 | 22.7% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 4.48 | 4.52 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 129 | 545 | 122 | 44 | 20 | 22.5% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 4.55 | 4.59 | +1.0 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 124 | 523 | 116 | 43 | 19 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 4.63 | 4.68 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 118 | 499 | 109 | 42 | 19 | 21.9% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 4.72 | 4.78 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 112 | 474 | 102 | 41 | 18 | 21.6% | 8.6% | 3.9% | 4.82 | 4.89 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 106 | 447 | 95 | 39 | 18 | 21.2% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 4.93 | 5.01 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 99 | 418 | 87 | 38 | 17 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 4.1% | 5.06 | 5.14 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 92 | 387 | 79 | 36 | 16 | 20.3% | 9.3% | 4.3% | 5.20 | 5.29 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 47 | 41 | 215 | 850 | 179 | 61 | 33 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 2.80 | 4.37 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 38 | 200 | 791 | 167 | 57 | 31 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 2.80 | 4.37 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| TJ Nichols (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 22.8% | 7.9% | 3.5% | — | 4.39 | 23.1% | 15.4% | 410 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | .336 | 6.35 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.48 | 3.87 | 124 | 90 |
| Alex Faedo R 2025 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 22.9% | 5.8% | 3.3% | .293 | 4.54 | 18.0% | 7.8% | 54 | +0.82 | 3.72 | 438 | 89 |
| Martin Agosta R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.29 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | .340 | 4.59 | 12.3% | 5.7% | 40 | +0.30 | 4.29 | 146 | 88 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.01 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .256 | 5.52 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.51 | 4.01 | 277 | 88 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2028 · 3.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.65 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .262 | 3.09 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.56 | 3.09 | 137 | 88 |
| Davis Daniel R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.90 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 3.6% | .313 | 4.20 | 19.6% | 12.2% | 283 | +0.30 | 3.02 | 519 | 85 |
| Raisel Iglesias R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.57 | 23.7% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .271 | 3.07 | 27.7% | 19.6% | 226 | -0.50 | 1.32 | 765 | 84 |
| Trevor May R 2027 · 3.04 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.04 | 22.4% | 4.9% | 2.2% | .334 | 3.61 | 28.8% | 19.5% | 95 | +0.57 | 3.04 | 432 | 83 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 83 |
| Erik Swanson R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.14 | 25.2% | 6.9% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.11 | 22.3% | 15.9% | 118 | +1.97 | 1.58 | 606 | 83 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .321 | 5.23 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.26 | 3.97 | 171 | 83 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .359 | 4.85 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.83 | 4.02 | 118 | 81 |
| Jake Smith R 2027 · 3.11 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.11 | 28.1% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .243 | 4.69 | 19.3% | -1.7% | 26 | +1.58 | 3.11 | 110 | 81 |
| Alex FaGalde R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.79 | 19.1% | 6.7% | 2.7% | .266 | 4.98 | 16.1% | 6.4% | 162 | +1.19 | 3.79 | 279 | 81 |
| Kevin Gausman R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.88 | 22.0% | 6.5% | 3.3% | .282 | 4.13 | 21.3% | 14.3% | 550 | +0.25 | 2.09 | 1,786 | 81 |
| Logan Gilbert R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.53 | 25.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% | .286 | 3.38 | 25.0% | 20.0% | 585 | -0.15 | 2.54 | 994 | 80 |
| John Holobetz R 2025 · 3.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.37 | 18.5% | 4.6% | 2.3% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 125 | 80 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.55 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .319 | 6.02 | 15.6% | 0.6% | 19 | +2.47 | 3.55 | 252 | 80 |
| Chase Hampton R 2023 · 4.05 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.05 | 26.1% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.05 | 107 | 80 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.4 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.5 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.4 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $3M | +1.3 | $12M | +$9M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.2 | $11M | +$6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +1.0 | $10M | +$3M |
| Totals | $18M | $71M | +$53M | ||