Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | 15 | 14 | 73 | 294 | 72 | 27 | 3 | 93% | 4.8 | 18.1% | 10.8% | 7.3% | 1.4% | 2.11 | 3.72 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | 15 | 14 | 73 | 294 | 72 | 27 | 3 | 93% | 4.8 | 24.5% | 9.2% | 15.3% | 1.0% | 2.11 | 2.77 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | 28 | 26 | 138 | 612 | 138 | 54 | 2 | 93% | 4.9 | 17.4% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 0.3% | 3.39 | 3.07 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | 28 | 26 | 138 | 612 | 138 | 54 | 2 | 93% | 4.9 | 22.5% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 0.3% | 3.39 | 2.46 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 142 | 593 | 128 | 45 | 15 | 100% | 5.5 | 17.7% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.11 | 4.55 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 142 | 593 | 128 | 45 | 15 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.6% | 7.6% | 14.0% | 2.5% | 4.11 | 3.62 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 3 | 54 | 244 | 74 | 23 | 12 | 7% | 1.3 | 28.1% | 9.8% | 18.2% | 5.3% | 6.17 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 3 | 54 | 244 | 74 | 23 | 12 | 7% | 1.3 | 30.3% | 9.4% | 20.9% | 4.9% | 6.17 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 15 | 0 | 15 | 57 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.8% | 8.8% | 28.1% | 3.5% | 1.23 | 3.03 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 15 | 0 | 15 | 57 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.8% | 8.8% | 28.1% | 3.5% | 1.23 | 3.03 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 62 | 0 | 63 | 253 | 85 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.6% | 9.9% | 23.7% | 2.8% | 2.14 | 3.03 | +1.2 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 62 | 0 | 63 | 253 | 85 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.6% | 9.9% | 23.7% | 2.8% | 2.14 | 3.04 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 63 | 0 | 64 | 258 | 73 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.3% | 6.6% | 21.7% | 1.6% | 2.11 | 2.40 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 63 | 0 | 64 | 258 | 73 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.3% | 6.6% | 21.7% | 1.6% | 2.11 | 2.43 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 60 | 252 | 72 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.0% | 7.7% | 21.4% | 2.4% | 2.85 | 2.95 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 60 | 252 | 72 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.6% | 7.5% | 21.0% | 2.4% | 2.85 | 2.95 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 15 | 70 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.0% | 4.8% | 16.1% | 6.5% | 6.14 | 5.48 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 15 | 70 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 5.7% | 6.14 | 6.17 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 49 | 0 | 43 | 187 | 47 | 16 | 10 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.1% | 8.6% | 16.6% | 5.2% | 8.23 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 49 | 0 | 43 | 187 | 47 | 16 | 10 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.1% | 8.6% | 16.6% | 5.3% | 8.23 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 36 | 0 | 29 | 141 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 0.8 | 27.9% | 16.4% | 11.5% | 1.6% | 7.06 | 3.72 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | LAA | 33 | 0 | 35 | 147 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.7% | 9.7% | 17.0% | 3.6% | 4.12 | 4.03 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | LAA | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.7% | 9.7% | 17.0% | 3.6% | 4.12 | 4.03 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 33 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 64 | 288 | 78 | 31 | 10 | — | — | 27.2% | 10.8% | 16.3% | 3.6% | 5.46 | 3.89 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 33 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 54 | 230 | 78 | 31 | 10 | — | — | 34.0% | 13.6% | 20.4% | 4.5% | 6.43 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 47 | 0 | 50 | 209 | 54 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 10.3% | 15.5% | 3.9% | 4.63 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 42 | 0 | 44 | 187 | 47 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 10.8% | 14.0% | 4.2% | 4.88 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | LAA | 37 | 0 | 39 | 166 | 39 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 4.6% | 5.21 | 5.42 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 51 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 10.3% | 15.5% | 3.9% | 4.63 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 42 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 10.8% | 14.0% | 4.2% | 4.88 | 5.05 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | LAA | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 32 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 4.6% | 5.21 | 5.42 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 453 | 0 | 446 | 1895 | 526 | 179 | 65 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 9.4% | 18.3% | 3.4% | 4.29 | 3.84 | +8.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 203 | 0 | 200 | 849 | 236 | 80 | 29 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 9.4% | 18.3% | 3.4% | 4.29 | 3.84 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 413 | 69 | 695 | 2961 | 686 | 274 | 75 | 17% | 1.7 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 2.5% | 3.81 | 3.71 | +13.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 119 | 20 | 200 | 852 | 197 | 79 | 22 | 17% | 1.7 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 2.5% | 3.81 | 3.71 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jordan Romano (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 26.2% | 8.1% | 3.9% | — | 5.04 | 24.9% | 14.1% | 133 | +0.62 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 78 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 78 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 78 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.52 | 27.3% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 316 | 77 |
| Blake Wood R 2024 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 76 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 75 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 75 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.58 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .335 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -0.95 | 2.63 | 144 | 75 |
| Jon Edwards R 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 73 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 11.3% | 2.1% | .304 | 3.43 | 22.8% | 12.6% | 174 | -0.09 | 3.08 | 349 | 71 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 115 | 71 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 71 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.54 | 21.9% | 8.5% | 5.9% | .312 | 4.79 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 49 | -0.75 | 2.37 | 153 | 70 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.44 | 24.8% | 12.0% | 1.7% | .356 | 4.68 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 66 | +1.24 | 2.73 | 410 | 70 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.45 | 23.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | .353 | 5.61 | 17.5% | 9.2% | 120 | +0.16 | 4.35 | 138 | 70 |
| Josh Lueke R 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 70 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 70 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 70 |
| Scott McGough R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.31 | 28.6% | 9.3% | 4.5% | .266 | 4.20 | 19.6% | 8.9% | 126 | -0.11 | 3.65 | 429 | 69 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.31 | 24.3% | 10.0% | 5.5% | .279 | 6.65 | 10.4% | -2.6% | 17 | +1.34 | 3.46 | 160 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 47 | 25.3% | 10.0% | 1.58 | 4.78 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Heath Hembree ('22) | 7 | 45 | 25.6% | 9.4% | 1.58 | 4.22 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Michael Feliz ('21) | 5 | 47 | 30.5% | 9.8% | 1.48 | 5.05 |