Scott McGough

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 37 RHP 5'11" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	33	MLBARI	63	1	70	4.73	4.44	28.6%	9.3%	0.1
2024	34	MIX2 levels	59	2	69	5.22	4.51	20.3%	12.7%	0.0	K 18.6% · BB 12.2% · FIP 4.56
2025	35	MIX2 levels	43	0	57	4.29	3.74	22.6%	7.7%	0.5	K 20.3% · BB 7.2% · FIP 3.82
2026	36	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	37	MLBOAK	6	0	6	5.02	4.93	21.2%	11.1%	-0.0
2028PROJMLE	38	MLBOAK	—	—	0	5.22	5.36	20.0%	11.8%	—
2029PROJMLE	39	MLBOAK	—	—	0	5.56	5.79	18.9%	12.5%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%44

FB Velo19

xwOBA vs10

CompsKeiichi Yabu (age 36) · Zack Segovia (age 36) · Rudy Gonzalez (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA5.02

FIP4.93

K%21.2%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%10.1%

Proj IP63

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1992.3

Whiff%

p8530.8%

p4421.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.377

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	33	0	44	184	26	20	2	0%	1.3	11.0%	12.7%	-1.8%	1.9%	3.07	4.82	-0.1
2015	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	33	0	44	184	26	20	2	0%	1.3	14.1%	10.9%	3.3%	1.1%	3.07	3.87	+0.4
2016	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	3	76	338	58	26	8	7%	1.8	14.7%	8.1%	6.5%	3.1%	5.35	4.60	—
2016	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	3	76	338	58	26	8	7%	1.8	17.2%	7.7%	9.5%	2.4%	5.35	3.97	—
2017	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	56	247	61	20	4	0%	1.4	20.7%	8.7%	12.0%	2.0%	2.75	3.55	—
2017	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	56	247	61	20	4	0%	1.4	24.7%	8.1%	16.6%	1.6%	2.75	2.92	—
2018	28	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	43	1	71	315	81	22	13	2%	1.7	22.6%	7.3%	15.3%	3.9%	5.55	4.26	—
2018	28	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	43	1	71	315	81	22	13	2%	1.7	25.7%	7.0%	18.7%	4.1%	5.55	4.12	—
2023	33	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	63	1	70	301	86	28	14	2%	1.1	28.6%	9.3%	19.3%	4.9%	4.73	4.57	-0.0
2023	33	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	63	1	70	301	86	28	14	2%	1.1	28.6%	9.3%	19.3%	4.7%	4.73	4.44	+0.1
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	2	69	306	62	39	8	3%	1.2	18.6%	12.2%	6.4%	2.7%	5.22	4.56	-0.0
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	2	69	306	62	39	8	3%	1.2	18.6%	12.2%	6.4%	2.7%	5.22	4.56	-0.0
2024	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	2	69	306	62	39	8	3%	1.2	20.3%	12.7%	7.5%	2.6%	5.22	4.51	+0.0
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	57	248	56	19	7	0%	1.3	20.3%	7.2%	13.1%	2.8%	4.29	3.82	+0.5
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	57	248	56	19	7	0%	1.3	20.3%	7.2%	13.1%	2.8%	4.29	3.82	+0.5
2025	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	57	248	56	19	7	0%	1.3	22.6%	7.7%	14.9%	2.8%	4.29	3.74	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			108	3	126	561	131	60	24	3%	1.2	23.4%	10.7%	12.7%	4.3%	5.94	4.93	-0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	37	MLB	OAK	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.2%	11.1%	10.1%	3.3%	5.02	4.93	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	38	MLB MLE	OAK	37	0	39	164	33	19	6	0%	1.1	20.0%	11.8%	8.3%	3.8%	5.22	5.36	-0.4
2029	39	MLB MLE	OAK	26	0	28	117	22	15	5	0%	1.1	18.9%	12.5%	6.4%	4.2%	5.56	5.79	-0.4
2030	40	MLB MLE	OAK	21	0	22	91	16	12	4	0%	1.0	17.7%	13.2%	4.6%	4.7%	5.96	6.22	-0.4
2028	38	MLB CTX	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.0%	11.8%	8.3%	3.8%	5.22	5.36	—
2029	39	MLB CTX	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.9%	12.5%	6.4%	4.2%	5.56	5.79	—
2030	40	MLB CTX	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.7%	13.2%	4.6%	4.7%	5.96	6.22	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		108	3	126	561	131	60	24	3%	1.2	23.4%	10.7%	12.7%	4.3%	5.94	4.83	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		172	5	200	893	208	95	38	3%	1.2	23.4%	10.7%	12.7%	4.3%	5.94	4.83	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		324	7	443	1939	385	178	61	2%	1.4	19.9%	9.2%	10.7%	3.2%	4.57	4.32	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	3	200	876	174	81	28	2%	1.4	19.9%	9.2%	10.7%	3.2%	4.57	4.32	-1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 41 IPFIP 2.98 → 3.10 (+0.12)K% 23.1% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.12%	—	×0.860	19.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.94%	—	×0.900	6.24%
HR / BF /BF	1.73%	÷1.183	×1.100	1.61%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 2.98 → 3.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAReno Aces · 36 IPFIP 3.26 → 3.38 (+0.12)K% 23.7% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.72%	—	×0.860	20.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×0.900	10.38%
HR / BF /BF	1.28%	÷1.124	×1.100	1.25%

Result: FIP 3.26 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 71 IPFIP 4.08 → 4.26 (+0.18)K% 25.7% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.71%	—	×0.880	22.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.98%	—	×1.050	7.33%
HR / BF /BF	4.13%	÷1.162	×1.100	3.91%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 132).

Result: FIP 4.08 → 4.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AABowie Baysox · 32 IPFIP 2.43 → 3.08 (+0.65)K% 26.1% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.09%	—	×0.810	21.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.80%	—	×1.100	6.38%
HR / BF /BF	1.45%	÷0.998	×1.200	1.74%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.43 → 3.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAANorfolk Tides · 23 IPFIP 3.56 → 4.14 (+0.57)K% 22.9% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.94%	—	×0.880	20.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.01%	—	×1.050	11.56%
HR / BF /BF	1.83%	÷0.866	×1.100	2.33%

Result: FIP 3.56 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAANorfolk Tides · 50 IPFIP 4.17 → 4.91 (+0.74)K% 16.5% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.52%	—	×0.880	14.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.82%	—	×1.050	10.31%
HR / BF /BF	2.23%	÷0.776	×1.100	3.16%

Result: FIP 4.17 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AABowie Baysox · 25 IPFIP 3.43 → 3.97 (+0.54)K% 18.4% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.42%	—	×0.810	14.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.51%	—	×1.100	3.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷1.057	×1.200	2.99%

Result: FIP 3.43 → 3.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAANew Orleans Zephyrs · 17 IPFIP 4.09 → 4.46 (+0.37)K% 17.6% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.65%	—	×0.880	15.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.24%	—	×1.050	13.90%
HR / BF /BF	1.47%	÷0.975	×1.100	1.66%

Result: FIP 4.09 → 4.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Scott McGough (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	21.2%	11.1%	3.3%	—	5.71	19.1%	6.8%	88	+0.78	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	82
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	74
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	71
Scott Atchison R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	37	SU	3.80	14.4%	6.2%	2.1%	.273	3.60	16.7%	12.9%	92	-0.20	2.52	340	67
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	66
Pete Walker R 2006 · 4.45 FIP	37	SU	4.45	19.6%	8.0%	3.6%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	327	66
Matt Bush R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	37	SU	3.79	26.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	64
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	64
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	61
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	61
Seunghwan Oh R 2019 · 5.75 FIP	37	SU	5.75	18.2%	6.8%	6.0%	.383	—	—	—	—	—	1.87	226	56
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	54
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	43
Brian Shouse L 2006 · 4.19 FIP	37	SU	4.19	13.2%	7.5%	2.3%	.269	3.37	15.3%	11.0%	127	-0.82	2.32	339	34
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	33

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	46	21.5%	11.5%	1.56	5.60
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Dave Stevens ('00)	1.3	50	14.6%	11.3%	1.76	6.02
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Frank LaCorte ('75-'84, -4 WAR*)	2.5	61	25.0%*	12.0%*	1.43*	5.83*