Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Mets | 3 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 2.3 | 41.7% | 0.0% | 41.7% | 0.0% | 1.29 | -0.42 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Mets | 3 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 2.3 | 41.7% | 0.0% | 41.7% | 0.0% | 1.29 | 0.24 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 17 | 71 | 291 | 85 | 26 | 4 | 94% | 4.0 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 2.0% | 3.53 | 3.71 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 17 | 71 | 291 | 85 | 26 | 4 | 94% | 4.0 | 29.2% | 8.9% | 20.3% | 1.4% | 3.53 | 2.54 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 124 | 522 | 138 | 46 | 18 | 100% | 4.8 | 22.5% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 4.3% | 4.65 | 4.72 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 124 | 522 | 138 | 46 | 18 | 100% | 4.8 | 26.4% | 8.8% | 17.6% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 3.87 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 29 | 27 | 134 | 607 | 109 | 52 | 24 | 93% | 4.6 | 15.8% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 6.04 | 5.04 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 29 | 27 | 134 | 607 | 109 | 52 | 24 | 93% | 4.6 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 4.0% | 6.04 | 4.97 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 47 | 3 | 101 | 423 | 82 | 47 | 8 | 6% | 2.1 | 19.4% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 1.8% | 2.50 | 3.87 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 47 | 3 | 101 | 423 | 82 | 47 | 8 | 6% | 2.1 | 19.4% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 1.9% | 2.50 | 3.90 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 54 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 12.0% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 99 | 0 | 104 | 437 | 83 | 53 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 12.1% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 4.81 | 4.99 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 99 | 0 | 104 | 437 | 82 | 54 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 12.2% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 4.97 | 5.08 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 93 | 0 | 98 | 414 | 78 | 50 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 12.1% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 4.81 | 4.99 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 93 | 0 | 98 | 414 | 78 | 51 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 12.2% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 4.97 | 5.08 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 234 | 3 | 298 | 1253 | 239 | 148 | 32 | 1% | 1.3 | 19.1% | 11.8% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 4.08 | 4.40 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 157 | 2 | 200 | 842 | 161 | 99 | 22 | 1% | 1.3 | 19.1% | 11.8% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 4.08 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 123 | 76 | 437 | 1867 | 369 | 181 | 60 | 62% | 3.6 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.34 | 4.41 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 35 | 200 | 854 | 169 | 83 | 27 | 62% | 3.6 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.34 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mike Vasil (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.96 | 18.9% | 12.0% | 2.8% | — | 5.03 | 18.9% | 6.7% | 207 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.60 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 2.7% | .285 | 4.61 | 16.4% | 5.3% | 48 | +0.01 | 4.60 | 529 | 82 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 79 |
| Phil Klein R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .280 | 3.17 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.66 | 3.17 | 178 | 78 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 78 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .285 | 6.04 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.10 | 4.52 | 239 | 77 |
| André Rienzo R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.24 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.00 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.24 | 3.58 | 200 | 77 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 77 |
| Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.73 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .306 | 3.97 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.76 | 3.16 | 308 | 77 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 76 |
| Mike Connolly R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 76 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.96 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 4.2% | .262 | 3.81 | 22.1% | 13.0% | 127 | -1.15 | 3.50 | 472 | 75 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 75 |
| Logan Verrett R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 15.4% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .283 | 4.97 | 17.8% | 11.8% | 94 | -0.21 | 3.73 | 550 | 75 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 74 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2029 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.12 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.05 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.07 | 4.05 | 165 | 74 |
| Jake McCasland R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.54 | 12.8% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 367 | 74 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.79 | 15.0% | 10.5% | 3.0% | .312 | 4.69 | 14.9% | 6.1% | 104 | -0.10 | 4.34 | 340 | 74 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.48 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.76 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.28 | 3.84 | 420 | 74 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.71 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.44 | 3.27 | 339 | 74 |
| Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.83 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .301 | 4.18 | 20.1% | 7.1% | 80 | -0.65 | 4.16 | 378 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 92 | 18.9% | 12.1% | 1.13 | 4.80 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |