Blake Wehunt

P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 26 RHP 6'7" / 240 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#787ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX3 levels	22	22	97	3.88	2.82	27.5%	8.5%	—	K 21.8% · BB 10.4% · FIP 3.65
2025	24	AABOS	17	16	63	5.68	3.72	27.0%	10.3%	—	K 21.9% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.36
2026	25	MIX2 levels	23	23	100	3.50	3.66	24.8%	8.6%	—	K 20.5% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.27
2027PROJ	26	MLBBOS	1	1	2	4.69	4.69	19.9%	9.6%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBBOS	6	6	37	4.63	4.64	20.1%	9.5%	0.3
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBBOS	9	9	53	4.66	4.69	20.1%	9.5%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 4.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 87%

CompsRiley Gowens (age 24) · Rorik Maltrud (age 24) · Brian Edgington (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%19.9%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%10.3%

Proj IP120

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	97	400	110	34	7	100%	4.4	21.8%	10.4%	11.4%	1.9%	3.88	3.65	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	97	400	110	34	7	100%	4.4	21.8%	10.4%	11.4%	1.9%	3.88	3.65	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	97	400	110	34	7	100%	4.4	27.5%	8.5%	19.0%	1.8%	3.88	2.82	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	17	16	63	281	76	29	8	94%	3.7	21.9%	11.4%	10.6%	3.1%	5.68	4.36	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	17	16	63	281	76	29	8	94%	3.7	21.9%	11.4%	10.6%	3.1%	5.68	4.36	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	17	16	63	281	76	29	8	94%	3.7	27.0%	10.3%	16.7%	2.8%	5.68	3.72	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	100	419	104	36	12	100%	4.4	20.5%	8.5%	12.0%	3.3%	3.50	4.27	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	100	419	104	36	12	100%	4.4	20.5%	8.5%	12.0%	3.3%	3.50	4.27	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	100	419	104	36	12	100%	4.4	24.8%	8.6%	16.2%	2.9%	3.50	3.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	BOS	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	19.9%	9.6%	10.3%	3.1%	4.69	4.69	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	BOS	17	17	99	419	84	40	13	100%	5.8	20.1%	9.5%	10.6%	3.1%	4.67	4.68	+0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	88	374	75	35	12	100%	5.9	20.1%	9.5%	10.6%	3.2%	4.70	4.73	+0.7
2030	29	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	81	340	68	33	11	100%	6.2	20.0%	9.6%	10.3%	3.3%	4.78	4.84	+0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	73	307	60	30	11	100%	6.0	19.7%	9.9%	9.8%	3.5%	4.91	5.00	+0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	37	156	31	15	5	100%	6.2	20.1%	9.5%	10.6%	3.0%	4.63	4.64	+0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	53	224	45	21	7	100%	5.9	20.1%	9.5%	10.6%	3.1%	4.66	4.69	+0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	57	241	48	23	8	100%	5.7	20.0%	9.6%	10.3%	3.2%	4.73	4.79	+0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	57	241	47	24	8	100%	5.7	19.7%	9.9%	9.8%	3.4%	4.86	4.95	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	34	204	861	172	83	28	100%	6.0	19.9%	9.6%	10.3%	3.2%	4.73	4.41	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	169	81	27	100%	6.0	19.9%	9.6%	10.3%	3.2%	4.73	4.41	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		63	61	262	1104	236	109	30	97%	4.2	21.3%	9.9%	11.4%	2.7%	4.16	4.06	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	47	200	843	180	83	23	97%	4.2	21.3%	9.9%	11.4%	2.7%	4.16	4.06	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 54 IPFIP 3.00 → 3.98 (+0.98)K% 33.0% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.03%	—	×0.810	26.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.34%	—	×1.100	8.07%
HR / BF /BF	3.21%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.85%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.00 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 47 IPFIP 4.38 → 4.58 (+0.20)K% 15.9% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.92%	—	×0.860	13.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.95%	—	×0.900	8.96%
HR / BF /BF	2.49%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.74%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.38 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 63 IPFIP 3.69 → 4.36 (+0.68)K% 27.0% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.05%	—	×0.810	21.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.32%	—	×1.100	11.35%
HR / BF /BF	2.85%	÷1.119	×1.200	3.05%

Result: FIP 3.69 → 4.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greenville Drive · 59 IPFIP 2.96 → 3.85 (+0.89)K% 26.7% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.75%	—	×0.770	20.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.82%	—	×1.150	8.99%
HR / BF /BF	2.06%	÷1.043	×1.250	2.47%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 2.96 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASalem Red Sox · 33 IPFIP 2.17 → 3.29 (+1.12)K% 32.4% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.35%	—	×0.740	23.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.03%	—	×1.180	13.01%
HR / BF /BF	0.74%	÷0.933	×1.300	1.02%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 2.17 → 3.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 5 IPFIP 5.31 → 5.86 (+0.54)K% 4.8% → 3.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	4.76%	—	×0.810	3.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.100	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.018	×1.200	5.62%

Result: FIP 5.31 → 5.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blake Wehunt (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.74	20.1%	10.5%	268	+0.05	—	—	—
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	84
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	83
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	83
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	82
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	82
Mason Black R 2024 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	19.7%	9.3%	3.9%	.304	5.29	17.0%	7.1%	213	+0.56	3.95	569	80
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	80
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	80
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	80
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	80
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	79
Tyler Cravy R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP-	3.94	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.305	4.61	18.6%	7.8%	138	+0.67	3.94	276	79
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	79
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	78
Caleb Kilian R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP	4.61	16.0%	6.2%	3.8%	.290	3.54	21.7%	13.5%	105	-1.07	2.42	444	78
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	78
Chase Anderson R 2014 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	21.6%	7.8%	3.3%	.309	4.03	19.6%	12.6%	446	-0.03	3.30	1,260	78
Brady Feigl R 2021 · 5.26 FIP	25	SP	5.26	19.4%	9.6%	4.7%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	257	78
Tyler Stuart R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	24	SP	3.53	21.1%	7.4%	2.3%	.319	6.01	15.6%	0.6%	19	+2.48	3.53	252	78
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	92	19.9%	9.6%	1.24	4.74
Mickey Mahler ('77-'86, 0 WAR*)	2.0	81	20.4%*	10.3%*	1.20*	4.87*
Chris Narveson ('16)	2.2	109	19.4%	8.6%	1.20	4.71
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Jeff Juden ('99)	2.7	107	18.8%	10.5%	1.23	4.81
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Vicente Palacios ('87-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.9	62	21.0%*	10.0%*	1.41*	4.86*