Brett Wichrowski
P
Biloxi Shuckers
+0.8
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 177 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.7 · 2029
ERA4.60
FIP4.60
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%17.6%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%7.0%
IP99
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.7peak
2029
K†4050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 21 | 21 | 89 | 386 | 82 | 39 | 7 | 17.0% | 11.2% | 1.8% | 3.84 | 4.09 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 22 | 22 | 99 | 432 | 72 | 44 | 5 | 13.5% | 11.2% | 1.2% | 3.44 | 4.06 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 3 | 2 | 14 | 60 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 21.6% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 5.14 | 7.93 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIL | 18 | 18 | 99 | 419 | 74 | 44 | 10 | 17.5% | 10.6% | 2.3% | 4.60 | 4.60 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 113 | 479 | 90 | 49 | 15 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 5.01 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 118 | 497 | 95 | 48 | 12 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 2.3% | 4.46 | 4.39 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 24 | 131 | 554 | 111 | 51 | 13 | 20.0% | 9.3% | 2.4% | 4.34 | 4.27 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 25 | 25 | 138 | 584 | 119 | 53 | 14 | 20.4% | 9.2% | 2.4% | 4.28 | 4.23 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 26 | 141 | 597 | 122 | 55 | 15 | 20.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | 4.26 | 4.24 | +1.7 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 26 | 141 | 596 | 122 | 55 | 15 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 25 | 25 | 138 | 583 | 119 | 54 | 15 | 20.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 4.30 | 4.31 | +1.5 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 24 | 134 | 565 | 114 | 53 | 15 | 20.1% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 4.35 | 4.38 | +1.4 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 23 | 23 | 129 | 546 | 109 | 52 | 14 | 19.9% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 4.41 | 4.45 | +1.2 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 23 | 23 | 124 | 524 | 103 | 50 | 14 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.49 | 4.54 | +1.1 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 118 | 500 | 97 | 49 | 14 | 19.3% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.63 | +0.9 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 20 | 112 | 475 | 90 | 48 | 14 | 19.0% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 4.75 | +0.7 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 19 | 106 | 448 | 83 | 46 | 14 | 18.6% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.79 | 4.87 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 18 | 18 | 99 | 418 | 76 | 44 | 13 | 18.1% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.92 | 5.00 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 46 | 45 | 202 | 878 | 137 | 97 | 18 | 15.6% | 11.0% | 2.1% | 3.74 | 4.34 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 44 | 200 | 868 | 135 | 96 | 18 | 15.6% | 11.0% | 2.1% | 3.74 | 4.34 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brett Wichrowski (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 17.5% | 10.6% | 2.3% | — | 4.29 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 387 | -0.31 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 94 |
| Brett Daniels R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.95 | 18.5% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .266 | 4.47 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 152 | +0.52 | 3.95 | 270 | 93 |
| Jake Christianson R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.72 | 16.4% | 6.1% | 105 | +0.73 | 3.99 | 188 | 93 |
| Angel Ventura R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 17.9% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .285 | 4.64 | 14.8% | 4.8% | 153 | +0.30 | 3.44 | 393 | 92 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 13.1% | 293 | -0.59 | 1.92 | 778 | 92 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.17 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.02 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 296 | -0.15 | 3.77 | 420 | 91 |
| Daniel Blair R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.39 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.30 | 4.09 | 171 | 91 |
| Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.29 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.1% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 199 | 91 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.27 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .251 | 4.78 | 18.8% | 6.8% | 146 | +0.51 | 4.27 | 238 | 91 |
| Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .323 | 3.96 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 65 | -0.49 | 2.91 | 175 | 91 |
| Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .285 | 5.74 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 160 | +2.02 | 3.72 | 256 | 90 |
| Logan Martin R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.9% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .278 | 4.06 | 15.9% | 4.9% | 91 | +0.11 | 3.95 | 193 | 90 |
| Joey Mancini R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .354 | 4.39 | 15.8% | 5.6% | 221 | +0.21 | 3.65 | 316 | 90 |
| Parker Bridwell R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.75 | 18.0% | 10.0% | 1.7% | .318 | 4.76 | 14.5% | 6.8% | 236 | +1.01 | 3.75 | 422 | 90 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 90 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.72 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .269 | 4.89 | 17.4% | 3.3% | 197 | +0.17 | 4.28 | 448 | 90 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.06 | 19.7% | 12.3% | 1.9% | .357 | 4.21 | 19.1% | 12.1% | 101 | +0.15 | 4.06 | 194 | 90 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 1.8% | .311 | 3.86 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 203 | -0.22 | 3.77 | 295 | 90 |
| Jordan Jackson R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.10 | 16.8% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .323 | 5.51 | 13.1% | 1.7% | 74 | +1.41 | 4.10 | 193 | 90 |
| Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.02 | 10.6% | 4.0% | 101 | -0.21 | 4.02 | 199 | 90 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.7 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.7 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.6 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.5 | $14M | +$11M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.4 | $14M | +$9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.2 | $12M | +$6M |
| Totals | $17M | $85M | +$68M | ||