Brett Wichrowski
P
Biloxi Shuckers
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 177 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.0 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 80 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 110
ERA4.86
FIP4.86
K%16.0%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%4.0%
ROS IP80
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 89 | 386 | 82 | 39 | 7 | 100% | 4.2 | 17.0% | 11.2% | 5.8% | 1.7% | 3.84 | 4.00 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 89 | 386 | 82 | 39 | 7 | 100% | 4.2 | 21.2% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 1.8% | 3.84 | 3.59 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 22 | 22 | 99 | 432 | 72 | 44 | 5 | 100% | 4.5 | 13.5% | 11.2% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 3.44 | 3.95 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 22 | 22 | 99 | 432 | 72 | 44 | 5 | 100% | 4.5 | 16.7% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 1.2% | 3.44 | 3.63 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 13 | 10 | 62 | 275 | 64 | 27 | 16 | 77% | 4.7 | 19.2% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.86 | 6.59 | -1.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 13 | 80 | 337 | 54 | 40 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.0% | 12.0% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 4.86 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIL | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 16.0% | 12.0% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 4.84 | 4.84 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 142 | 612 | 118 | 67 | 23 | — | — | 19.2% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 5.73 | 5.61 | -0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 16.0% | 12.0% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 4.84 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 118 | 499 | 92 | 55 | 11 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.4% | 11.0% | 7.4% | 2.3% | 4.66 | 4.57 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 24 | 138 | 581 | 116 | 61 | 13 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 2.3% | 4.49 | 4.39 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 25 | 25 | 150 | 632 | 132 | 65 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.8% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 2.3% | 4.38 | 4.31 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 25 | 25 | 148 | 623 | 130 | 64 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.8% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 2.4% | 4.36 | 4.35 | +1.8 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 24 | 143 | 604 | 125 | 63 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 4.41 | 4.44 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 23 | 23 | 137 | 577 | 118 | 62 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.5% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.50 | 4.57 | +1.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 128 | 543 | 109 | 60 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.1% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.74 | +1.0 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 40 | 24 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.4% | 11.0% | 7.4% | 2.2% | 4.64 | 4.55 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 16 | 16 | 92 | 388 | 77 | 41 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 2.3% | 4.46 | 4.36 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 105 | 52 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.8% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 2.3% | 4.35 | 4.28 | +1.6 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 111 | 55 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.8% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 2.4% | 4.33 | 4.32 | +1.6 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 128 | 540 | 112 | 57 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.7% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 4.38 | 4.41 | +1.5 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 107 | 56 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.5% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 4.47 | 4.54 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 101 | 55 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.1% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.62 | 4.71 | +1.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 128 | 128 | 761 | 3213 | 654 | 341 | 79 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 4.45 | 4.07 | +11.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 172 | 90 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 4.45 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 56 | 53 | 250 | 1093 | 177 | 121 | 30 | 95% | 4.5 | 16.2% | 11.1% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.63 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 42 | 200 | 874 | 141 | 97 | 24 | 95% | 4.5 | 16.2% | 11.1% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.63 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brett Wichrowski (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.86 | 16.0% | 12.0% | 2.2% | — | 4.41 | 19.8% | 9.2% | 406 | -0.45 | — | — | — |
| Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.43 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .285 | 7.34 | 19.6% | 3.2% | 26 | +2.91 | 4.43 | 225 | 91 |
| Alex Royalty R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.34 | 14.9% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .302 | 4.74 | 17.7% | 8.6% | 40 | +0.40 | 4.34 | 151 | 91 |
| Mike Ruff R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.86 | 18.5% | 12.4% | 1.4% | .301 | 5.54 | 16.0% | 5.0% | 185 | +1.68 | 3.86 | 260 | 88 |
| Ty Langenberg R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.84 | 16.2% | 11.6% | 1.2% | .326 | 4.32 | 18.1% | 8.6% | 74 | +0.48 | 3.38 | 287 | 88 |
| Jack Noble R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.45 | 16.5% | 13.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 6.15 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 58 | +1.70 | 4.45 | 125 | 88 |
| Tyler Skulina R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 18.3% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .242 | 5.24 | 13.0% | -1.0% | 147 | +0.78 | 4.46 | 222 | 88 |
| Elijah Dale R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.70 | 16.7% | 13.6% | 2.3% | .239 | 6.40 | 18.4% | -1.6% | 31 | +1.70 | 4.70 | 140 | 88 |
| Cameron Wagoner R 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 14.8% | 9.6% | 1.8% | .326 | 3.24 | 29.8% | 23.6% | 27 | -0.83 | 3.24 | 127 | 88 |
| Blaine Knight R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 14.1% | 9.8% | 2.4% | .263 | 4.58 | 16.2% | 6.6% | 159 | +0.12 | 4.16 | 269 | 88 |
| Adam Hill R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.96 | 15.6% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .297 | 6.36 | 19.6% | 8.9% | 91 | +1.40 | 4.96 | 213 | 88 |
| Dylan Burns R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 88 |
| Elliot Morris R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 12.8% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 102 | 87 |
| Tyler Woessner R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.07 | 16.4% | 11.8% | 1.6% | .307 | 5.57 | 18.0% | 3.0% | 76 | +1.50 | 4.07 | 197 | 87 |
| Baron Stuart R 2027 · 5.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.16 | 14.5% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .266 | 4.16 | 17.2% | 3.5% | 187 | -1.00 | 3.55 | 287 | 87 |
| Nick Brink R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.05 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.5% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.05 | 113 | 87 |
| Linder Castro R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.52 | 15.3% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .327 | 4.38 | 16.4% | 6.5% | 111 | -0.14 | 4.27 | 279 | 87 |
| Hayden Merda R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.06 | 16.1% | 15.3% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.42 | 25.8% | 12.5% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.50 | 182 | 86 |
| Bradley Brehmer R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.40 | 14.6% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .349 | 2.88 | 21.3% | 13.7% | 82 | -1.52 | 2.76 | 153 | 86 |
| Jordan Jackson R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 16.8% | 9.7% | 2.4% | .323 | 5.46 | 13.1% | 1.7% | 74 | +1.22 | 4.24 | 193 | 86 |
| Jeff Thompson R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.57 | 15.2% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .306 | 4.28 | 15.8% | 1.0% | 202 | -0.29 | 3.46 | 321 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 131 | 19.9% | 10.7% | 0.95 | 4.52 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |
| Aaron Sanchez ('22) | 7 | 93 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 0.98 | 4.32 |
| Gio Gonzalez ('20) | 6 | 141 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 0.85 | 3.85 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |