Brett Wichrowski

P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 177 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033

OGV OFP35OGV rank#709ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	21	21	89	3.84	3.59	21.2%	10.1%	—	K 17.0% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.11
2025	22	AAMIL	22	22	99	3.44	3.63	16.7%	10.2%	—	K 13.5% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.03
2026	23	MIX2 levels	29	13	81	6.58	5.20	23.5%	9.7%	—	K 19.5% · BB 9.8% · FIP 5.88
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIL	1	1	2	5.20	5.20	18.8%	11.2%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBMIL	7	7	39	5.11	5.05	20.3%	10.6%	0.2
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBMIL	10	10	60	4.98	4.93	21.1%	10.3%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$1M2031Arb-2$1M2032Arb-3$1M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 1.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsDerek True (age 23) · Tanner Hall (age 22) · Cooper Chandler (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%18.8%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%7.6%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$7M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2031	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-3	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	89	386	82	39	7	100%	4.2	17.0%	11.2%	5.8%	1.9%	3.84	4.11	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	89	386	82	39	7	100%	4.2	17.0%	11.2%	5.8%	1.9%	3.84	4.11	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	89	386	82	39	7	100%	4.2	21.2%	10.1%	11.1%	1.8%	3.84	3.59	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	22	22	99	432	72	44	5	100%	4.5	13.5%	11.2%	2.3%	1.2%	3.44	4.03	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	22	22	99	432	72	44	5	100%	4.5	13.5%	11.2%	2.3%	1.2%	3.44	4.03	—
2025	22	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	22	22	99	432	72	44	5	100%	4.5	16.7%	10.2%	6.5%	1.2%	3.44	3.63	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	13	81	362	85	35	18	45%	2.8	19.5%	9.8%	9.7%	5.8%	6.58	5.88	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	13	81	362	85	35	18	45%	2.8	19.5%	9.8%	9.7%	5.8%	6.58	5.88	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	13	81	362	85	35	18	45%	2.8	23.5%	9.7%	13.8%	5.0%	6.58	5.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIL	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	18.8%	11.2%	7.6%	3.4%	5.20	5.20	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	90	380	77	40	13	100%	6.0	20.3%	10.6%	9.7%	3.4%	5.02	4.96	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	90	380	80	39	13	100%	6.0	21.1%	10.3%	10.8%	3.4%	4.89	4.84	+0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	85	359	76	37	12	100%	6.1	21.2%	10.2%	10.9%	3.4%	4.86	4.85	+0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	80	339	71	35	12	100%	6.2	21.1%	10.3%	10.7%	3.5%	4.89	4.92	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	74	314	65	33	11	100%	6.2	20.8%	10.6%	10.3%	3.6%	4.99	5.05	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	67	284	58	31	11	100%	6.1	20.5%	10.9%	9.6%	3.8%	5.13	5.23	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	39	165	33	17	6	100%	5.6	20.3%	10.6%	9.7%	3.6%	5.11	5.05	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	60	253	54	26	9	100%	6.0	21.1%	10.3%	10.8%	3.5%	4.98	4.93	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	66	279	59	29	10	100%	6.0	21.2%	10.2%	10.9%	3.6%	4.95	4.94	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	68	287	60	30	10	100%	6.2	21.1%	10.3%	10.7%	3.7%	4.99	5.02	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	65	274	57	29	10	100%	5.9	20.8%	10.6%	10.3%	3.8%	5.09	5.15	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	61	258	53	28	10	100%	6.1	20.5%	10.9%	9.6%	4.0%	5.24	5.34	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	60	359	1516	316	159	56	100%	6.0	20.9%	10.5%	10.4%	3.7%	5.05	4.69	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	176	89	31	100%	6.0	20.9%	10.5%	10.4%	3.7%	5.05	4.69	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		72	56	269	1180	194	127	33	78%	3.7	16.5%	10.8%	5.7%	2.8%	4.52	4.63	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	42	200	877	145	94	25	78%	3.7	16.5%	10.8%	5.7%	2.8%	4.52	4.63	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABiloxi Shuckers · 48 IPFIP 5.34 → 6.48 (+1.14)K% 24.6% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.64%	—	×0.810	19.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.48%	—	×1.100	10.43%
HR / BF /BF	5.69%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.82%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.34 → 6.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAANashville Sounds · 33 IPFIP 4.69 → 5.04 (+0.35)K% 21.9% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.85%	—	×0.860	18.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.93%	—	×0.900	8.94%
HR / BF /BF	3.97%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.37%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.69 → 5.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABiloxi Shuckers · 99 IPFIP 3.62 → 4.03 (+0.41)K% 16.7% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.810	13.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.19%	—	×1.100	11.20%
HR / BF /BF	1.16%	÷1.170	×1.200	1.19%

Result: FIP 3.62 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABiloxi Shuckers · 74 IPFIP 3.93 → 4.38 (+0.44)K% 18.8% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.83%	—	×0.810	15.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.100	12.22%
HR / BF /BF	1.85%	÷1.198	×1.200	1.85%

Result: FIP 3.93 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 15 IPFIP 1.74 → 2.73 (+0.99)K% 33.9% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.87%	—	×0.770	26.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.84%	—	×1.150	5.56%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷0.979	×1.250	2.06%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 1.74 → 2.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brett Wichrowski (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	4.88	20.9%	10.5%	265	-0.32	—	—	—
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	90
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	88
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	87
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	86
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	86
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	85
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	85
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.31	21.9%	11.8%	274	-0.96	3.83	543	84
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	83
Houston Roth R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP-	4.44	19.3%	11.2%	2.8%	.306	5.01	21.1%	8.6%	168	+0.57	3.79	406	83
Wil Jensen R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	24	SP-	4.69	20.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.261	4.20	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.49	3.48	368	83
Zach Miner R 2006 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	14.8%	7.8%	2.8%	.300	4.24	13.8%	4.6%	264	-0.11	3.55	386	83
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	82
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	82
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	82
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	82
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	81
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	81
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	81
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	82	20.5%	10.6%	1.35	5.00
Vicente Palacios ('87-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.9	62	21.0%*	10.0%*	1.41*	4.86*
Frank Wills ('83-'91, -1 WAR*)	2.2	62	20.5%*	10.2%*	1.27*	5.30*
Mickey Mahler ('77-'86, 0 WAR*)	2.0	81	20.4%*	10.3%*	1.20*	4.87*
Jake Faria ('23)	1.0	68	20.9%	10.3%	1.32	4.87
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98