Brett Wichrowski

Brett Wichrowski P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 177 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.2 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION79 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%16.0%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%4.1%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4555

CMD3040

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$6M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$10M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	89	386	82	39	7	100%	4.2	17.0%	11.2%	5.8%	1.9%	3.84	4.11	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	89	386	82	39	7	100%	4.2	17.0%	11.2%	5.8%	1.9%	3.84	4.11	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	89	386	82	39	7	100%	4.2	21.2%	10.1%	11.1%	1.8%	3.84	3.59	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	22	22	99	432	72	44	5	100%	4.5	13.5%	11.2%	2.3%	1.2%	3.44	4.03	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	22	22	99	432	72	44	5	100%	4.5	13.5%	11.2%	2.3%	1.2%	3.44	4.03	—
2025	22	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	22	22	99	432	72	44	5	100%	4.5	16.7%	10.2%	6.5%	1.2%	3.44	3.63	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	27	13	79	353	84	35	18	48%	2.9	19.5%	10.1%	9.4%	5.9%	6.13	6.00	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	27	13	79	353	84	35	18	48%	2.9	19.5%	10.1%	9.4%	5.9%	6.13	6.00	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	MIL	10	7	48	211	52	20	12	70%	4.8	24.6%	9.5%	15.2%	5.7%	6.42	5.34	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	MIL	17	6	32	142	32	15	6	35%	1.9	22.5%	10.6%	12.0%	4.2%	5.68	4.85	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	MIL	7	0	8	32	5	4	1	0%	1.1	16.0%	11.9%	4.1%	2.3%	4.90	4.90	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	87	385	89	39	19	—	—	23.1%	10.1%	13.1%	4.9%	6.02	5.90	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	118	499	92	55	12	100%	5.6	18.4%	11.0%	7.4%	2.3%	4.69	4.60	+0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIL	24	24	138	581	116	61	14	100%	5.7	19.9%	10.5%	9.4%	2.4%	4.52	4.43	+0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	150	632	132	65	15	100%	6.0	20.8%	10.3%	10.5%	2.4%	4.41	4.34	+1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	148	623	130	64	15	100%	5.9	20.8%	10.3%	10.5%	2.5%	4.39	4.38	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIL	24	24	143	604	125	63	15	100%	6.0	20.7%	10.5%	10.2%	2.6%	4.43	4.46	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	137	577	118	62	16	100%	5.9	20.5%	10.7%	9.8%	2.7%	4.53	4.59	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	128	543	109	60	16	100%	6.1	20.1%	11.0%	9.1%	2.9%	4.68	4.77	+0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	120	506	100	57	16	100%	6.0	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	3.1%	4.86	4.97	-0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	111	468	90	55	16	100%	6.2	19.3%	11.8%	7.5%	3.4%	5.06	5.20	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	52	220	40	24	5	100%	5.8	18.4%	11.0%	7.4%	2.4%	4.75	4.66	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	92	388	77	41	10	100%	5.8	19.9%	10.5%	9.4%	2.5%	4.58	4.49	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	119	502	105	52	13	100%	6.0	20.8%	10.3%	10.5%	2.5%	4.48	4.41	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIL	21	21	126	532	111	55	14	100%	6.0	20.8%	10.3%	10.5%	2.6%	4.46	4.45	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIL	21	21	128	540	112	57	15	100%	6.1	20.7%	10.5%	10.2%	2.7%	4.50	4.53	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIL	21	21	124	524	107	56	15	100%	5.9	20.5%	10.7%	9.8%	2.8%	4.60	4.66	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	119	502	101	55	15	100%	6.0	20.1%	11.0%	9.1%	3.1%	4.76	4.85	+0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	112	473	93	54	16	100%	5.9	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	3.3%	4.95	5.06	-0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	104	439	85	52	16	100%	6.1	19.3%	11.8%	7.5%	3.6%	5.15	5.29	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		164	163	975	4116	831	444	117	99%	5.9	20.2%	10.8%	9.4%	2.8%	4.68	4.33	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	170	91	24	100%	6.0	20.2%	10.8%	9.4%	2.8%	4.68	4.33	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		70	56	268	1171	193	127	33	80%	3.8	16.4%	10.8%	5.6%	2.9%	4.37	4.65	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	42	200	875	144	95	25	80%	3.8	16.4%	10.8%	5.6%	2.9%	4.37	4.65	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brett Wichrowski (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	16.0%	11.9%	2.3%	—	4.45	19.8%	9.2%	406	-0.45	—	—	—
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	91
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	88
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	88
Chase Cohen R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.22	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.47	3.52	263	86
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	85
Trenton Toplikar R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	14.8%	10.1%	2.2%	.248	5.39	16.5%	6.4%	123	+1.07	4.32	232	85
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	85
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	85
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	85
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.73	16.1%	4.0%	225	+1.44	2.86	357	84
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	84
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	84
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	84
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	84
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	83
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	83
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	83
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	83
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	83
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	128	19.8%	10.9%	1.02	4.62
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98