Houston Roth
P
Tacoma Rainiers
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 59 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 114
ERA5.02
FIP5.02
K%20.3%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%8.1%
ROS IP59
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 23 | 10 | 81 | 348 | 77 | 31 | 8 | 43% | 3.5 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.58 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 23 | 10 | 81 | 348 | 77 | 31 | 8 | 43% | 3.5 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 2.3% | 4.54 | 3.63 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 26 | 16 | 100 | 431 | 108 | 42 | 10 | 62% | 3.9 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 4.49 | 4.40 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 26 | 16 | 100 | 431 | 108 | 42 | 10 | 62% | 3.9 | 25.1% | 9.7% | 15.3% | 2.3% | 4.49 | 3.50 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 4 | 81 | 351 | 84 | 46 | 17 | 15% | 3.1 | 19.5% | 14.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.11 | 5.57 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 4 | 81 | 351 | 84 | 46 | 17 | 15% | 3.1 | 23.9% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 4.8% | 5.11 | 5.46 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 53 | 221 | 73 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.9% | 12.5% | 13.5% | 2.0% | 3.57 | 3.57 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 53 | 221 | 73 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.5 | 33.0% | 10.9% | 22.2% | 2.7% | 3.57 | 3.18 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 52 | 215 | 54 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.0% | 11.1% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 2.96 | 4.87 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 52 | 215 | 54 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.1% | 11.2% | 14.0% | 2.3% | 2.96 | 3.66 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 25 | 2 | 40 | 166 | 46 | 16 | 7 | 8% | 1.6 | 24.4% | 10.1% | 14.3% | 4.6% | 3.86 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SEA | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 50 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 12.2% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 5.02 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SEA | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 12.2% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 5.02 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 99 | 415 | 96 | 46 | 15 | — | — | 23.2% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 3.6% | 4.55 | 4.96 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 6 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 20.3% | 12.2% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 5.02 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 54 | 0 | 56 | 237 | 48 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 12.1% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 5.02 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 50 | 0 | 53 | 223 | 45 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 5.10 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 18 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 12.1% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 5.02 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 25 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 5.10 | 5.20 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 53 | 0 | 56 | 235 | 48 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 12.2% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 5.06 | 4.75 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 172 | 104 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 12.2% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 5.06 | 4.75 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 172 | 32 | 407 | 1732 | 347 | 203 | 56 | 19% | 2.4 | 20.0% | 11.7% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.25 | 4.67 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 16 | 200 | 851 | 171 | 100 | 28 | 19% | 2.4 | 20.0% | 11.7% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.25 | 4.67 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Houston Roth (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.02 | 20.3% | 12.2% | 3.1% | — | 5.14 | 20.3% | 8.1% | 109 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 84 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 84 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 83 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 83 |
| Mike Adams R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 81 |
| Wil Browning R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.58 | 17.9% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.12 | 162 | 79 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 79 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 79 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.09 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 173 | 79 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 79 |
| Javy Guerra R 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 78 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.12 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 472 | 78 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 78 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.63 | 21.1% | 11.2% | 310 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 556 | 78 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 78 |
| Chris Leroux R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 78 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.27 | 18.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .298 | 5.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 164 | +0.82 | 3.76 | 399 | 78 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 77 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 77 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.99 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.16 | 21.2% | 13.3% | 48 | +0.17 | 3.23 | 253 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 56 | 20.3% | 12.2% | 1.26 | 5.05 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |