Houston Roth

P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	36	0	53	3.57	3.18	33.0%	10.9%	—	K 25.9% · BB 12.5% · FIP 3.79
2025	27	MIX2 levels	36	0	52	2.96	3.66	25.1%	11.2%	—	K 18.6% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.60
2026	28	AAASEA	36	5	57	4.92	4.60	28.7%	9.4%	—	K 24.7% · BB 8.5% · FIP 5.06
2027PROJ	29	MLBSEA	7	0	7	4.85	4.85	22.7%	9.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBSEA	19	0	20	4.90	4.97	22.4%	10.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBSEA	24	0	25	5.01	5.12	22.1%	10.3%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control45Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsDiego Moreno (age 29) · Coleman Huntley III (age 29) · Jim Miller (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%22.7%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%12.9%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	23	10	81	348	77	31	8	43%	3.5	16.4%	10.5%	5.9%	2.9%	4.54	4.63	—
2021	23	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	23	10	81	348	77	31	8	43%	3.5	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	2.3%	4.54	3.63	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	26	16	100	431	108	42	10	62%	3.9	19.3%	11.2%	8.1%	2.8%	4.49	4.44	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	26	16	100	431	108	42	10	62%	3.9	25.1%	9.7%	15.3%	2.3%	4.49	3.50	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	4	81	351	84	46	17	15%	3.1	19.5%	14.2%	5.3%	5.0%	5.11	5.97	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	4	81	351	84	46	17	15%	3.1	23.9%	13.1%	10.8%	4.8%	5.11	5.46	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	53	221	73	24	6	0%	1.5	25.9%	12.5%	13.5%	2.4%	3.57	3.79	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	53	221	73	24	6	0%	1.5	25.9%	12.5%	13.5%	2.4%	3.57	3.79	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	53	221	73	24	6	0%	1.5	33.0%	10.9%	22.2%	2.7%	3.57	3.18	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	52	215	54	24	5	0%	1.4	18.6%	9.5%	9.1%	3.4%	2.96	4.60	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	52	215	54	24	5	0%	1.4	18.6%	9.5%	9.1%	3.4%	2.96	4.60	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	52	215	54	24	5	0%	1.4	25.1%	11.2%	14.0%	2.3%	2.96	3.66	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	36	5	57	244	70	23	12	14%	1.6	24.7%	8.5%	16.2%	5.4%	4.92	5.06	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	36	5	57	244	70	23	12	14%	1.6	24.7%	8.5%	16.2%	5.4%	4.92	5.06	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	36	5	57	244	70	23	12	14%	1.6	28.7%	9.4%	19.3%	4.9%	4.92	4.60	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	SEA	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	9.8%	12.9%	3.7%	4.85	4.85	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	SEA	52	0	54	229	51	23	9	0%	1.0	22.4%	10.0%	12.3%	3.8%	4.90	4.97	-0.3
2029	31	MLB MLE	SEA	43	0	46	193	42	20	8	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.3%	11.7%	4.0%	5.01	5.12	-0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	SEA	19	0	20	84	19	8	3	0%	1.1	22.4%	10.0%	12.3%	3.8%	4.90	4.97	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	SEA	24	0	25	106	23	11	4	0%	1.0	22.1%	10.3%	11.7%	4.0%	5.01	5.12	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	0	45	190	42	19	7	0%	1.0	22.2%	10.2%	12.0%	3.9%	4.96	4.68	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	84	31	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.2%	12.0%	3.9%	4.96	4.68	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		183	35	424	1810	366	203	65	19%	2.3	20.2%	11.2%	9.0%	3.6%	4.37	4.80	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	17	200	854	173	96	31	19%	2.3	20.2%	11.2%	9.0%	3.6%	4.37	4.80	-1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 57 IPFIP 4.57 → 5.06 (+0.49)K% 28.7% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.69%	—	×0.860	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.43%	—	×0.900	8.48%
HR / BF /BF	4.92%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.41%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.57 → 5.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 41 IPFIP 4.21 → 4.60 (+0.39)K% 21.6% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.64%	—	×0.860	18.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×0.900	9.47%
HR / BF /BF	2.92%	÷0.945	×1.100	3.40%

Result: FIP 4.21 → 4.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 11 IPFIP 1.56 → 2.36 (+0.79)K% 38.6% → 31.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.64%	—	×0.810	31.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×1.100	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.248	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).

Result: FIP 1.56 → 2.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABowie Baysox · 48 IPFIP 3.18 → 3.79 (+0.60)K% 32.0% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.02%	—	×0.810	25.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.33%	—	×1.100	12.46%
HR / BF /BF	2.46%	÷1.249	×1.200	2.37%

Result: FIP 3.18 → 3.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABowie Baysox · 79 IPFIP 5.44 → 5.97 (+0.53)K% 24.0% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.05%	—	×0.810	19.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.90%	—	×1.100	14.19%
HR / BF /BF	4.99%	÷1.208	×1.200	4.95%

Result: FIP 5.44 → 5.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 100 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.44 (+0.95)K% 25.1% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.06%	—	×0.770	19.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.74%	—	×1.150	11.21%
HR / BF /BF	2.32%	÷1.029	×1.250	2.82%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 81 IPFIP 3.62 → 4.63 (+1.01)K% 22.1% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.13%	—	×0.740	16.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.91%	—	×1.180	10.51%
HR / BF /BF	2.30%	÷1.035	×1.300	2.89%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 3.62 → 4.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Houston Roth (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	22.7%	9.8%	3.7%	—	5.04	22.2%	12.1%	100	+0.19	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	81
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	80
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	78
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	76
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	75
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	75
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	75
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	74
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	74
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	74
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	74
Alex Powers R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	29	SU	4.24	25.0%	10.3%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	264	74
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	74
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	73
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	73
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	73
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	73
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	72
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	72
Michael Mariot R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	29	SU	4.62	21.8%	7.5%	4.4%	.328	4.65	17.7%	9.5%	136	+0.03	2.40	701	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	22.4%	10.0%	1.48	4.91
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*