Houston Roth — OGILVIE

Houston Roth P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%19.6%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP59

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	23	10	81	348	77	31	8	43%	3.5	16.4%	10.5%	5.9%	2.9%	4.54	4.63	—
2021	23	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	23	10	81	348	77	31	8	43%	3.5	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	2.3%	4.54	3.63	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	26	16	100	431	108	42	10	62%	3.9	19.3%	11.2%	8.1%	2.8%	4.49	4.44	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	26	16	100	431	108	42	10	62%	3.9	25.1%	9.7%	15.3%	2.3%	4.49	3.50	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	4	81	351	84	46	17	15%	3.1	19.5%	14.2%	5.3%	5.0%	5.11	5.97	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	4	81	351	84	46	17	15%	3.1	19.5%	14.2%	5.3%	5.0%	5.11	5.97	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	4	81	351	84	46	17	15%	3.1	23.9%	13.1%	10.8%	4.8%	5.11	5.46	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	53	221	73	24	6	0%	1.5	25.9%	12.5%	13.5%	2.4%	3.57	3.79	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	53	221	73	24	6	0%	1.5	25.9%	12.5%	13.5%	2.4%	3.57	3.79	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	53	221	73	24	6	0%	1.5	33.0%	10.9%	22.2%	2.7%	3.57	3.18	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	52	215	54	24	5	0%	1.4	18.0%	9.5%	8.5%	3.4%	2.96	4.65	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	52	215	54	24	5	0%	1.4	18.0%	9.5%	8.5%	3.4%	2.96	4.65	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	52	215	54	24	5	0%	1.4	25.1%	11.2%	14.0%	2.3%	2.96	3.66	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	36	5	57	244	70	23	12	14%	1.6	23.8%	8.5%	15.3%	5.4%	4.92	5.13	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	36	5	57	244	70	23	12	14%	1.6	23.8%	8.5%	15.3%	5.4%	4.92	5.13	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	SEA	36	5	57	244	70	23	12	14%	1.6	28.7%	9.4%	19.3%	4.9%	4.92	4.57	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	SEA	54	0	56	237	47	28	8	0%	1.0	19.8%	11.7%	8.1%	3.3%	5.03	5.08	-0.3
2028	30	MLB MLE	SEA	50	0	53	223	44	26	8	0%	1.1	19.7%	11.8%	7.9%	3.4%	5.11	5.20	-0.4
2027	29	MLB CTX	SEA	20	0	21	89	18	10	3	0%	1.1	19.8%	11.7%	8.1%	3.3%	5.03	5.08	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	SEA	28	0	29	122	24	14	4	0%	1.0	19.7%	11.8%	7.9%	3.4%	5.11	5.20	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		47	0	50	210	41	25	7	0%	1.1	19.7%	11.7%	8.0%	3.4%	5.08	4.77	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	100	28	0%	1.0	19.7%	11.7%	8.0%	3.4%	5.08	4.77	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		183	35	424	1810	363	203	65	19%	2.3	20.0%	11.2%	8.8%	3.6%	4.37	4.81	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	17	200	854	171	96	31	19%	2.3	20.0%	11.2%	8.8%	3.6%	4.37	4.81	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Houston Roth (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	19.6%	11.7%	3.1%	—	5.14	19.7%	8.0%	109	+0.12	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	85
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	84
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	83
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	82
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	82
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	80
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	80
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	79
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	79
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	79
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	79
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	78
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	78
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	78
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	78
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	78
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	78
Trevor Cahill R 2016 · 4.22 FIP	28	SU	4.22	23.2%	11.8%	2.9%	.274	4.60	21.1%	11.2%	310	+0.38	3.37	556	77
Logan Bawcom R 2017 · 4.06 FIP	28	SU	4.06	18.2%	10.7%	2.1%	.298	5.19	15.0%	6.4%	164	+1.13	3.73	399	77
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	19.7%	11.7%	1.27	5.05
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86