Richard Fitts — OGILVIE

Richard Fitts P Memphis Redbirds

+0.2 WAR

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.7 · 2028

ERA4.52

FIP4.85

xFIP4.27

SIERA4.32

K%20.1%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%11.6%

IP100

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2028

K†5050

FB Velo

p7095.9

Whiff%

p5025.3%

p3820.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.361

FB+2.6 (48%)

SI (9%)

CU (11%)

CH (2%)

SL-6.0 (39%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	22	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	22	22	112	445	131	20	14	22.0%	5.3%	4.0%	3.70	4.10	+1.5
2023	23	AA	Somerset Patriots	27	27	153	629	163	43	22	21.0%	7.5%	4.1%	3.48	4.52	+1.3
2024	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	28	27	137	577	120	44	19	18.5%	7.9%	3.6%	3.80	4.54	+1.2
2025	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	18	17	75	322	67	27	13	19.9%	8.9%	4.2%	4.44	4.83	+0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	3	3	15	62	11	6	0	15.6%	10.2%	0.0%	1.76	3.07	+0.3
ROS	26	MLB	STL	40	—	40	168	36	14	6	21.1%	8.5%	3.7%	4.61	4.79	+0.1
2026 Total	26	MLB	STL	—	—	55	230	47	20	6	20.2%	8.8%	2.7%	3.82	4.31	+0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	27	MLB	STL	19	19	103	435	92	37	16	21.2%	8.4%	3.6%	4.67	4.74	+0.7
2028	28	MLB	STL	19	19	104	437	93	37	16	21.2%	8.4%	3.6%	4.70	4.73	+0.7
2029	29	MLB	STL	18	18	101	427	89	36	15	20.8%	8.5%	3.6%	4.74	4.78	+0.6
2030	30	MLB	STL	18	18	98	415	84	35	15	20.3%	8.6%	3.7%	4.81	4.86	+0.5
2031	31	MLB	STL	17	17	95	400	79	35	15	19.7%	8.7%	3.7%	4.90	4.97	+0.3
2032	32	MLB	STL	17	17	91	384	73	34	15	19.1%	8.8%	3.8%	5.01	5.08	+0.1
2033	33	MLB	STL	16	16	87	367	67	33	14	18.4%	9.0%	3.9%	5.13	5.21	-0.0
2034	34	MLB	STL	15	15	83	349	62	32	14	17.7%	9.2%	4.0%	5.26	5.35	-0.2
2035	35	MLB	STL	14	14	78	329	62	28	14	18.9%	8.6%	4.1%	5.24	5.23	-0.1
2036	36	MLB	STL	13	13	73	307	56	27	13	18.2%	8.9%	4.2%	5.33	5.40	-0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			98	96	492	2035	411	151	78	20.2%	7.4%	3.8%	3.71	4.44	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—			40	39	200	827	167	61	32	20.2%	7.4%	3.8%	3.71	4.44	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Richard Fitts (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	21.1%	8.5%	3.7%	—	4.75	21.1%	12.6%	308	-0.04	—	—	—
Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.32 FIP	26	SU	4.32	20.9%	8.8%	3.4%	.310	4.30	17.6%	5.6%	46	-0.02	3.45	161	83
Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	26	SU	3.85	22.0%	7.5%	3.0%	.333	4.24	18.2%	8.5%	116	+0.39	3.85	149	82
Juan Ramon Noriega R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	21.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.243	3.46	24.8%	17.1%	57	-1.00	3.46	198	82
Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.7%	11.4%	2.3%	.292	4.93	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.96	3.84	299	81
Bryan Shaw R 2027 · 3.91 FIP	27	SW	3.91	20.4%	6.8%	3.0%	.276	3.53	23.3%	15.0%	198	-0.38	2.86	596	81
Jake Barrett R 2026 · 5.13 FIP	26	SU	5.13	20.1%	11.5%	4.1%	.267	2.91	26.9%	15.2%	69	-2.22	1.48	230	80
Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	23.1%	8.7%	2.7%	.234	3.53	18.4%	8.3%	43	-0.21	2.96	114	80
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	26	SW	4.45	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.78	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.65	315	80
Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 4.14 FIP	26	SU	4.14	20.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.255	4.04	20.3%	8.9%	66	-0.10	4.04	214	79
Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.33 FIP	26	SW	4.33	22.1%	9.2%	3.5%	.282	3.20	26.9%	17.2%	144	-1.13	1.79	618	79
Jason Adam R 2026 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	25.9%	11.0%	5.1%	.241	3.31	29.4%	18.8%	60	-1.80	2.40	362	79
Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	19.6%	10.5%	3.9%	.293	4.50	12.8%	-1.5%	34	-0.43	1.27	164	79
Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP	26	SW	4.05	21.2%	9.4%	2.8%	.295	4.28	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.23	3.34	187	79
Zach Bryant R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	26	SU	4.86	18.0%	9.6%	3.8%	.313	4.56	18.8%	8.1%	48	-0.30	4.56	158	79
John Brebbia R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	26	SW	4.15	18.6%	6.6%	3.3%	.346	3.23	27.6%	21.4%	215	-0.92	2.96	523	78
Hunter Parsons R 2026 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	22.8%	10.9%	4.3%	.274	6.70	25.5%	9.0%	29	+1.77	4.76	183	78
Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.32 FIP	26	SU	4.32	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.62	23.6%	11.9%	58	+0.30	3.86	134	78
Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP	26	SW	4.22	23.4%	11.6%	3.0%	.273	4.53	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.31	3.70	187	78
Boby Johnson R 2025 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.3%	8.8%	4.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	145	78
Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	26	SW	4.57	18.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	78

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 0.953 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$3M	+$1M
2030	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.2M
2031	Arb-3	$2M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$13M	+$5M