Richard Fitts

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.3 · 2027

Overview

AAASP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	28	27	137	3.80	4.11	20.8%	7.6%	2.1	K 18.1% · BB 7.0% · FIP 4.45
2025	25	MIX3 levels	18	17	75	4.44	4.65	20.8%	8.4%	0.7	K 19.8% · BB 8.3% · FIP 4.87
2026	26	AAASTL	3	3	15	1.76	2.84	17.7%	9.7%	—	K 15.3% · BB 8.7% · FIP 2.91
2027PROJ	27	MLBSTL	12	12	75	4.68	4.83	19.2%	8.9%	0.5
2028PROJ64% MLB	28	MLBSTL	12	12	69	4.63	4.72	19.3%	8.9%	0.4
2029PROJ74% MLB	29	MLBSTL	10	10	57	4.73	4.83	18.9%	9.0%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.953First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$0.4M2031Arb-2$4M2032Ext$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo70

K%38

xwOBA vs10

CompsDeck McGuire (age 27) · Juan Carlos Sulbaran (age 26) · Chandler Champlain (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 113

ERA4.68

FIP4.83

K%19.2%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%10.3%

Proj IP167

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 167 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7095.9

Whiff%

p5025.3%

p3820.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.361

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 0.953 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-2	$4M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	112	445	131	20	14	100%	5.1	22.0%	5.3%	16.8%	4.0%	3.70	4.09	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	112	445	131	20	14	100%	5.1	29.4%	4.5%	24.9%	3.1%	3.70	2.92	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	27	27	153	629	163	43	22	100%	5.7	21.0%	7.5%	13.5%	4.1%	3.48	4.51	—
2023	23	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	27	27	153	629	163	43	22	100%	5.7	25.9%	6.8%	19.1%	3.5%	3.48	3.68	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	137	577	120	44	19	96%	4.9	18.1%	7.0%	11.1%	3.6%	3.80	4.45	+1.5
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	137	577	120	44	19	96%	4.9	18.1%	7.0%	11.1%	3.6%	3.80	4.45	+1.5
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	137	577	120	44	19	96%	4.9	20.8%	7.6%	13.2%	3.3%	3.80	4.11	+2.1
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	17	75	322	67	27	13	94%	4.2	19.8%	8.3%	11.4%	4.3%	4.44	4.87	+0.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	17	75	322	67	27	13	94%	4.2	19.8%	8.3%	11.4%	4.3%	4.44	4.87	+0.5
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	17	75	322	67	27	13	94%	4.2	20.8%	8.4%	12.4%	4.0%	4.44	4.65	+0.7
2026	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	3	3	15	62	11	6	0	100%	5.1	15.3%	8.7%	6.5%	0.0%	1.76	2.91	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	3	3	15	62	11	6	0	100%	5.1	15.3%	8.7%	6.5%	0.0%	1.76	2.91	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	3	3	15	62	11	6	0	100%	5.1	17.7%	9.7%	8.1%	0.0%	1.76	2.84	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			15	14	66	280	49	23	11	93%	4.4	17.5%	8.2%	9.3%	3.9%	3.97	4.84	+0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	STL	12	12	75	317	61	28	11	100%	6.2	19.2%	8.9%	10.3%	3.4%	4.68	4.83	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	108	456	88	41	16	100%	6.0	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	3.4%	4.76	4.85	+0.7
2029	29	MLB MLE	STL	13	13	78	328	62	30	12	100%	6.0	18.9%	9.0%	9.9%	3.5%	4.87	4.97	+0.4
2030	30	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	59	250	46	23	9	100%	5.9	18.4%	9.3%	9.1%	3.7%	5.02	5.14	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	69	291	56	26	9	100%	5.8	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	3.2%	4.63	4.72	+0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	57	241	46	22	8	100%	5.7	18.9%	9.0%	9.9%	3.3%	4.73	4.83	+0.3
2030	30	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	48	203	37	19	7	100%	6.0	18.4%	9.3%	9.1%	3.5%	4.88	5.00	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		44	43	240	1017	189	90	35	98%	5.5	18.6%	8.8%	9.7%	3.5%	4.52	4.55	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	36	200	847	157	75	29	98%	5.4	18.6%	8.8%	9.7%	3.5%	4.52	4.55	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		98	96	492	2035	408	143	78	98%	5.0	20.0%	7.0%	13.0%	3.8%	3.71	4.41	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	39	200	827	166	58	32	98%	5.0	20.0%	7.0%	13.0%	3.8%	3.71	4.41	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 15 IPFIP 2.83 → 2.91 (+0.09)K% 17.7% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.74%	—	×0.860	15.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.68%	—	×0.900	8.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.83 → 2.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 27 IPFIP 3.43 → 3.67 (+0.25)K% 21.6% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.55%	—	×0.860	18.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.48%	—	×0.900	8.53%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷0.984	×1.100	1.93%

Result: FIP 3.43 → 3.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 117 IPFIP 4.27 → 4.66 (+0.39)K% 22.6% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.56%	—	×0.860	19.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.52%	—	×0.900	6.77%
HR / BF /BF	3.86%	÷0.996	×1.100	4.27%

Result: FIP 4.27 → 4.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASomerset Patriots · 153 IPFIP 3.70 → 4.51 (+0.81)K% 25.9% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.91%	—	×0.810	20.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.84%	—	×1.100	7.52%
HR / BF /BF	3.50%	÷1.033	×1.200	4.06%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 3.70 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ATampa Tarpons · 79 IPFIP 3.54 → 4.87 (+1.33)K% 28.4% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.44%	—	×0.740	21.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.20%	—	×1.180	6.13%
HR / BF /BF	3.98%	÷1.026	×1.300	5.04%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 3.54 → 4.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 33 IPFIP 1.17 → 1.95 (+0.78)K% 32.2% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.20%	—	×0.770	24.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.54%	—	×1.150	2.92%
HR / BF /BF	0.85%	÷1.014	×1.250	1.04%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 1.17 → 1.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Richard Fitts (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	19.2%	8.9%	3.4%	—	4.96	19.0%	9.9%	245	+0.13	—	—	—
Deck McGuire R 2016 · 5.23 FIP	27	SP	5.23	17.2%	8.5%	4.6%	.287	4.05	19.8%	9.4%	277	-1.18	3.41	622	78
Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	26	SP	4.65	15.0%	8.9%	3.1%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	278	76
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	76
Jeff Niemann R 2010 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP	4.47	17.9%	7.5%	3.5%	.257	3.87	19.1%	12.5%	173	-0.60	2.96	544	75
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	74
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.73	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.66	4.07	203	74
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	74
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	74
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	74
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	74
Merrill Kelly R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP	4.41	20.3%	6.8%	4.0%	.289	3.83	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.58	3.60	1,170	73
Jimmy Nelson R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP	4.57	17.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.289	3.16	27.2%	18.6%	238	-1.41	1.32	720	73
Chi Chi González R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	27	SP	4.99	16.7%	10.5%	3.6%	.302	4.55	15.3%	7.8%	225	-0.44	4.01	800	73
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	72
Gabriel Arias R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	13.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	72
Alec Marsh R 2024 · 3.93 FIP	26	SP	3.93	23.4%	7.0%	3.5%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	424	72
Dom Hamel R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	25	SP	5.31	18.3%	11.9%	4.1%	.330	4.96	17.9%	8.8%	180	-0.35	3.61	547	72
Carson Seymour R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	25	SP	4.64	19.0%	9.0%	3.6%	.340	4.43	19.7%	10.2%	221	-0.21	3.39	579	72
Kyle Haynes R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	25	SP	4.58	15.7%	9.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	240	72
Manuel Flores R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	29	SP	4.03	13.8%	7.1%	2.2%	.317	3.57	14.4%	9.2%	263	-0.46	3.46	515	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	80	18.9%	8.9%	1.36	4.67
Ross Ohlendorf ('16)	2.9	84	17.2%	8.6%	1.38	4.82
Rich Folkers ('70-'77, -0 WAR*)	2.1	85	19.1%*	8.8%*	1.35*	4.91*
Mike Willis ('77-'81, 0 WAR*)	1.5	59	18.4%*	9.6%*	1.45*	4.77*
Bob Priddy ('62-'71, -1 WAR*)	2.7	77	16.3%*	9.0%*	1.43*	4.80*
Roansy Contreras ('25)	1.2	82	19.3%	9.8%	1.38	4.77
JC Ramírez ('19)	1.4	72	16.4%	8.4%	1.44	4.71