Richard Fitts
P
Memphis Redbirds
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 230 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.0 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION15 act + 66 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136126vR 117
ERA4.80
FIP4.98
K%19.7%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%10.7%
ROS IP66
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7095.9
Whiff%
p5025.3%
K%
p3820.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.361
FB+2.6 (48%)
SI (9%)
CU (11%)
CH (2%)
SL-6.0 (39%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 112 | 445 | 131 | 20 | 14 | 100% | 5.1 | 22.0% | 5.3% | 16.8% | 3.9% | 3.70 | 4.04 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 112 | 445 | 131 | 20 | 14 | 100% | 5.1 | 29.4% | 4.5% | 24.9% | 3.1% | 3.70 | 2.92 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 27 | 27 | 153 | 629 | 163 | 43 | 22 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.0% | 7.5% | 13.5% | 3.9% | 3.48 | 4.44 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 27 | 27 | 153 | 629 | 163 | 43 | 22 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.9% | 6.8% | 19.1% | 3.5% | 3.48 | 3.68 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 27 | 137 | 577 | 120 | 44 | 19 | 96% | 4.9 | 18.5% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 3.80 | 4.55 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 27 | 137 | 577 | 120 | 44 | 19 | 96% | 4.9 | 20.8% | 7.6% | 13.2% | 3.3% | 3.80 | 4.11 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 17 | 75 | 322 | 67 | 27 | 13 | 94% | 4.2 | 19.9% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 4.2% | 4.44 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 17 | 75 | 322 | 67 | 27 | 13 | 94% | 4.2 | 20.8% | 8.4% | 12.4% | 4.0% | 4.44 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 3 | 3 | 15 | 62 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 5.1 | 15.6% | 10.2% | 5.5% | 0.0% | 1.76 | 3.07 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 66 | 280 | 55 | 25 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.7% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | STL | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 30 | 14 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.7% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 4.79 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | STL | — | — | 82 | 342 | 66 | 31 | 10 | — | — | 19.4% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.62 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | STL | — | — | 36 | 154 | 30 | 14 | 6 | — | — | 19.7% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 4.79 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 28 | 28 | 169 | 713 | 142 | 64 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 3.7% | 4.86 | 4.95 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | STL | 28 | 28 | 169 | 713 | 142 | 65 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 3.7% | 4.91 | 4.98 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | STL | 27 | 27 | 161 | 681 | 133 | 63 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 5.01 | 5.10 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | STL | 25 | 25 | 152 | 640 | 121 | 61 | 26 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 4.0% | 5.17 | 5.29 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | STL | 24 | 24 | 141 | 597 | 108 | 59 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.1% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 5.38 | 5.52 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 100 | 45 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 3.7% | 4.85 | 4.94 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 135 | 570 | 114 | 52 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 3.7% | 4.90 | 4.97 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | STL | 23 | 23 | 136 | 574 | 112 | 53 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.5% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 5.00 | 5.09 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 106 | 53 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 4.0% | 5.16 | 5.28 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 97 | 53 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.1% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 5.37 | 5.51 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 130 | 129 | 752 | 3178 | 608 | 293 | 123 | 99% | 5.8 | 19.1% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 3.9% | 4.95 | 4.78 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 34 | 200 | 845 | 162 | 78 | 33 | 99% | 5.8 | 19.1% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 3.9% | 4.95 | 4.78 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 98 | 96 | 492 | 2035 | 411 | 151 | 77 | 98% | 5.0 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 12.7% | 3.8% | 3.71 | 4.41 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 39 | 200 | 827 | 167 | 62 | 31 | 98% | 5.0 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 12.7% | 3.8% | 3.71 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Richard Fitts (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.98 | 19.7% | 9.1% | 3.7% | — | 5.01 | 19.8% | 10.7% | 499 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 76 |
| Hunter Dobbins R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.33 | 17.6% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 463 | 76 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 75 |
| Alex Williams R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.23 | 17.7% | 10.5% | 4.2% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 322 | 75 |
| Griffin Canning R 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.37 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 5.2% | .295 | 4.67 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 299 | -0.70 | 3.70 | 776 | 74 |
| Alex Cobb R 2028 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.20 | 14.0% | 6.9% | 4.4% | .366 | 4.43 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 344 | -0.77 | 2.78 | 844 | 74 |
| Burch Smith R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 73 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 73 |
| Jake Walters R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.17 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .316 | 5.97 | 15.5% | -0.2% | 72 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 261 | 73 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2024 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 73 |
| Bryan Evans R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .250 | 4.75 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.81 | 3.72 | 231 | 71 |
| Luke Weaver R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.32 | 23.3% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .346 | 4.34 | 20.7% | 13.8% | 225 | +0.02 | 2.26 | 1,022 | 70 |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 197 | 70 |
| Seth Shuman R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.45 | 14.1% | 8.0% | 4.6% | .273 | 4.93 | 17.4% | 11.2% | 139 | -0.52 | 3.05 | 338 | 70 |
| Brett Gillis R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.10 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 4.0% | .231 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 119 | 70 |
| Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.78 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 3.9% | .290 | 3.57 | 22.0% | 13.2% | 95 | -1.21 | 2.38 | 434 | 70 |
| J.J. Niekro R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.26 | 17.6% | 9.3% | 2.7% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 263 | 70 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 70 |
| Dustin Beggs R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.25 | 15.6% | 7.4% | 2.8% | .329 | 5.11 | 11.3% | 3.6% | 48 | +0.86 | 3.46 | 407 | 70 |
| James Hicks R 2025 · 5.23 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.23 | 17.2% | 8.2% | 4.7% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 227 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 151 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 1.49 | 5.02 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Aníbal Sánchez ('22) | 7 | 120 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 1.56 | 4.80 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |