Richard Fitts — OGILVIE

Richard Fitts P Memphis Redbirds

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.1 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION15 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA4.80

FIP4.97

K%19.4%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7095.9

Whiff%

p5025.3%

p3820.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.361

FB+2.6 (48%)

SI (9%)

CU (11%)

CH (2%)

SL-6.0 (39%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 0.953 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	-$0.1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-1	$2M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.1M		$-3M	-$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	112	445	131	20	14	100%	5.1	22.0%	5.3%	16.8%	4.0%	3.70	4.09	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	112	445	131	20	14	100%	5.1	29.4%	4.5%	24.9%	3.1%	3.70	2.92	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	27	27	153	629	163	43	22	100%	5.7	21.0%	7.5%	13.5%	4.1%	3.48	4.51	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	27	27	153	629	163	43	22	100%	5.7	21.0%	7.5%	13.5%	4.1%	3.48	4.51	—
2023	23	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	27	27	153	629	163	43	22	100%	5.7	25.9%	6.8%	19.1%	3.5%	3.48	3.68	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	137	577	120	44	19	96%	4.9	17.5%	7.0%	10.5%	3.6%	3.80	4.50	+0.6
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	137	577	120	44	19	96%	4.9	17.5%	7.0%	10.5%	3.6%	3.80	4.50	+0.6
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	137	577	120	44	19	96%	4.9	20.8%	7.6%	13.2%	3.3%	3.80	4.11	+1.3
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	17	75	322	67	27	13	94%	4.2	19.5%	8.3%	11.2%	4.3%	4.44	4.89	+0.0
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	17	75	322	67	27	13	94%	4.2	19.5%	8.3%	11.2%	4.3%	4.44	4.89	+0.0
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	17	75	322	67	27	13	94%	4.2	20.8%	8.4%	12.4%	4.0%	4.44	4.65	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			15	14	66	280	49	23	11	93%	4.4	17.5%	8.2%	9.3%	3.9%	3.97	4.84	+0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	3	3	15	62	11	6	0	100%	5.1	14.7%	8.7%	6.0%	0.0%	1.76	2.96	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	3	3	15	62	11	6	0	100%	5.1	14.7%	8.7%	6.0%	0.0%	1.76	2.96	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	STL	3	3	15	62	11	6	0	100%	5.1	17.7%	9.7%	8.1%	0.0%	1.76	2.83	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	STL	2	2	13	57	11	5	2	100%	6.7	19.4%	8.5%	10.8%	3.7%	4.80	4.97	-0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	STL	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	19.4%	8.5%	10.8%	3.5%	4.66	4.83	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	29	119	22	11	2	—	—	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	1.8%	3.18	3.90	+0.2
FULL	26	MLB A+C	STL	—	—	1	6	1	0	0	—	—	19.4%	8.5%	10.8%	3.5%	4.66	4.44	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	STL	28	28	169	713	140	61	26	100%	6.0	19.6%	8.5%	11.1%	3.7%	4.85	4.93	-0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	28	28	169	713	140	61	27	100%	6.0	19.7%	8.6%	11.1%	3.7%	4.90	4.96	-0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	STL	27	27	161	681	131	60	26	100%	6.0	19.2%	8.8%	10.4%	3.9%	5.00	5.09	-0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	STL	25	25	152	640	119	58	26	100%	6.1	18.6%	9.0%	9.5%	4.0%	5.16	5.28	-0.6
2027	27	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	72	304	60	26	10	100%	6.0	19.6%	8.5%	11.1%	3.4%	4.71	4.79	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	18	18	106	448	88	38	16	100%	5.9	19.7%	8.6%	11.1%	3.5%	4.76	4.82	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	STL	20	20	117	494	95	43	18	100%	5.8	19.2%	8.8%	10.4%	3.6%	4.85	4.94	-0.3
2030	30	MLB CTX	STL	20	20	121	511	95	46	19	100%	6.0	18.6%	9.0%	9.5%	3.8%	5.00	5.12	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	84	483	2041	387	177	74	99%	5.7	19.0%	8.7%	10.3%	3.6%	4.73	4.59	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	846	160	73	31	99%	5.7	19.0%	8.7%	10.3%	3.6%	4.73	4.59	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		98	96	492	2035	403	143	78	98%	5.0	19.8%	7.0%	12.8%	3.8%	3.71	4.43	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	39	200	827	164	58	32	98%	5.0	19.8%	7.0%	12.8%	3.8%	3.71	4.43	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Richard Fitts (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	19.4%	8.5%	3.7%	—	4.99	19.5%	10.9%	499	+0.02	—	—	—
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	77
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	76
Alex Cobb R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SP	5.26	14.0%	6.9%	4.5%	.366	4.37	16.3%	10.7%	344	-0.89	2.74	844	75
Griffin Canning R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP	5.21	22.4%	10.1%	5.0%	.295	4.55	21.1%	13.3%	299	-0.66	3.60	801	74
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	74
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.90	20.6%	13.1%	353	-0.59	3.08	476	74
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	73
Zack Wheeler R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.28	1,586	73
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	73
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.89	14.8%	0.9%	72	+1.86	3.51	261	72
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	72
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	71
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	71
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	71
Dustin Beggs R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	15.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.329	5.09	11.3%	3.6%	48	+0.70	3.40	407	70
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	70
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	70
Tim Atherton R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	70
Alex Williams R 2023 · 5.80 FIP	23	SP	5.80	19.3%	9.4%	5.7%	.300	4.47	18.3%	8.3%	235	-1.33	3.77	335	70
Wirkin Estevez R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	26	SP	4.68	14.8%	7.3%	3.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	238	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	161	19.3%	8.7%	1.47	4.94
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47