Alec Marsh

P Kansas City Royals

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBSPArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	24	MIX2 levels	27	27	124	6.88	4.94	26.9%	10.2%	—	K 22.2% · BB 11.1% · FIP 6.29
2023	25	MIX3 levels	31	22	137	5.20	4.29	25.8%	11.3%	1.8	K 23.7% · BB 11.6% · FIP 4.69
2024	26	MIX2 levels	31	30	148	4.14	3.75	23.9%	7.1%	2.9	K 23.4% · BB 7.0% · FIP 3.93
2025	27	No MLB games played
2026	28	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	29	MLBKC	21	21	126	4.43	4.36	22.9%	8.1%	1.5
2028PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBKC	17	17	102	4.37	4.43	22.2%	8.4%	1.0
2029PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBKC	15	15	88	4.53	4.65	21.4%	8.8%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.453First FA2030

2027Arb-1$3M2028Arb-2$4M2029Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

K%51

FB Velo45

xwOBA vs24

CompsYariel Rodríguez (age 27) · Jose Samayoa (age 29) · Merrill Kelly (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 103

ERA4.43

FIP4.36

K%22.9%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%14.8%

Proj IP126

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 126 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p3723.5%

p5122.4%

xwOBA vs

p240.343

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.453 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$3M	+1.5	$12M	+$9M
2028	Arb-2	$4M	+1.0	$7M	+$4M
2029	Arb-3	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$21M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	6	6	25	106	42	13	4	100%	4.2	32.1%	13.5%	18.6%	4.7%	4.97	4.70	—
2021	23	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	6	6	25	106	42	13	4	100%	4.2	39.6%	12.3%	27.4%	3.8%	4.97	3.38	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	124	579	156	59	28	100%	4.6	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	6.7%	6.88	6.29	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	124	579	156	59	28	100%	4.6	26.9%	10.2%	16.8%	4.8%	6.88	4.94	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	22	137	620	160	70	21	71%	4.4	23.7%	11.6%	12.1%	3.9%	5.20	4.69	+1.1
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	22	137	620	160	70	21	71%	4.4	25.8%	11.3%	14.5%	3.4%	5.20	4.29	+1.8
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	148	618	148	44	20	97%	4.8	23.4%	7.0%	16.4%	3.5%	4.14	3.93	+2.6
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	148	618	148	44	20	97%	4.8	23.4%	7.0%	16.4%	3.5%	4.14	3.93	+2.6
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	30	148	618	148	44	20	97%	4.8	23.9%	7.1%	16.8%	3.2%	4.14	3.75	+2.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			43	33	203	890	208	77	35	77%	4.7	23.4%	8.7%	14.7%	3.9%	4.96	4.43	+2.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	KC	21	21	126	532	122	43	17	100%	6.0	22.9%	8.1%	14.8%	3.3%	4.43	4.36	+1.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	107	451	100	38	16	100%	5.9	22.2%	8.4%	13.8%	3.5%	4.51	4.57	+1.0
2029	31	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	93	391	84	34	14	100%	6.2	21.4%	8.8%	12.7%	3.7%	4.68	4.80	+0.6
2030	32	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	80	338	70	31	13	100%	6.2	20.6%	9.2%	11.5%	3.9%	4.90	5.05	+0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	KC	17	17	102	431	96	36	14	100%	6.0	22.2%	8.4%	13.8%	3.2%	4.37	4.43	+1.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	KC	15	15	88	372	80	33	13	100%	5.9	21.4%	8.8%	12.7%	3.4%	4.53	4.65	+0.6
2030	32	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	76	321	66	29	12	100%	5.8	20.6%	9.2%	11.5%	3.6%	4.74	4.89	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		87	77	469	2011	449	175	73	89%	5.4	22.3%	8.7%	13.6%	3.6%	4.71	4.31	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	33	200	858	192	75	31	89%	5.4	22.3%	8.7%	13.6%	3.6%	4.71	4.31	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		95	85	434	1923	454	194	89	89%	4.6	23.6%	10.1%	13.5%	4.6%	5.30	4.93	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	39	200	885	209	89	41	89%	4.6	23.6%	10.1%	13.5%	4.6%	5.30	4.93	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 19 IPFIP 1.95 → 2.26 (+0.31)K% 35.7% → 30.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.71%	—	×0.860	30.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.57%	—	×0.900	7.71%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷1.111	×1.100	1.41%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 122).

Result: FIP 1.95 → 2.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 47 IPFIP 3.34 → 4.30 (+0.96)K% 26.4% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.42%	—	×0.810	21.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.32%	—	×1.100	12.45%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷0.872	×1.200	2.60%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 3.34 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 15 IPFIP 2.84 → 3.19 (+0.35)K% 28.8% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.79%	—	×0.860	24.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.61%	—	×0.900	9.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷0.942	×1.100	1.77%

Result: FIP 2.84 → 3.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 114 IPFIP 4.83 → 6.29 (+1.47)K% 27.4% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.43%	—	×0.810	22.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.07%	—	×1.100	11.08%
HR / BF /BF	5.04%	÷0.905	×1.200	6.68%

Result: FIP 4.83 → 6.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 10 IPFIP 4.08 → 4.52 (+0.44)K% 20.9% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.93%	—	×0.880	18.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.63%	—	×1.050	12.21%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷0.984	×1.100	2.60%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 4.08 → 4.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 25 IPFIP 3.38 → 4.70 (+1.32)K% 39.6% → 32.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.62%	—	×0.810	32.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.26%	—	×1.100	13.49%
HR / BF /BF	3.77%	÷0.957	×1.200	4.73%

Result: FIP 3.38 → 4.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alec Marsh (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	22.9%	8.1%	3.3%	—	4.78	21.5%	12.8%	280	+0.42	—	—	—
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	73
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	70
Merrill Kelly R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP	4.41	20.3%	6.8%	4.0%	.289	3.83	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.58	3.60	1,170	67
Mario Gonzalez R 2016 · 3.94 FIP	29	SP	3.94	17.9%	5.7%	2.9%	.276	4.53	14.1%	9.1%	104	+0.59	3.94	368	67
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	67
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	66
Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	26	SP	3.42	18.9%	9.4%	1.3%	.264	4.07	23.9%	12.1%	153	+0.65	3.42	223	65
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	65
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	65
Matt Buschmann R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	31	SP	4.03	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.84	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.03	277	65
Manny Barreda R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	28	SP	3.85	19.2%	10.0%	2.0%	.275	5.21	18.1%	8.6%	104	+1.36	3.30	376	65
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	65
Scott Richmond R 2009 · 5.11 FIP	29	SP	5.11	19.2%	9.5%	4.4%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	166	65
Josh Lowey R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	30	SP	3.35	21.1%	7.8%	1.9%	.311	2.30	26.7%	20.1%	231	-1.05	2.22	426	65
Asher Wojciechowski R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	29	SP-	4.60	22.4%	7.8%	4.4%	.267	5.05	22.0%	13.3%	234	+0.45	3.15	678	65
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	64
Jameson Taillon R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	29	SP	4.09	23.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.268	4.02	20.2%	15.0%	497	-0.07	3.12	1,401	64
Kodai Senga R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	30	SP	3.40	29.1%	11.1%	2.5%	.274	4.52	23.4%	10.8%	186	+1.12	3.40	352	64
Jeremy Kehrt R 2015 · 3.37 FIP	29	SP	3.37	15.2%	5.3%	1.6%	.297	4.25	12.1%	3.9%	143	+0.88	3.37	262	63
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	102	22.4%	8.6%	1.42	4.72
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61
Brent Strom ('72-'77, 0 WAR*)	2.5	125	19.3%*	8.2%*	1.53*	4.78*
Dan Straily ('19)	4.0	115	19.8%	9.1%	1.60	4.56
Nate Karns ('19)	1.6	105	24.0%	9.3%	1.34	4.30
Chris Knapp ('75-'80, -1 WAR*)	3.0	121	21.3%*	9.3%*	1.41*	5.48*
Jack Armstrong ('88-'94, 2 WAR*)	3.9	131	19.2%*	9.2%*	1.59*	4.89*