Alec Marsh — OGILVIE

Alec Marsh P Kansas City Royals

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.1 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.64

FIP4.48

K%22.8%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%14.9%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p3723.5%

p5122.4%

xwOBA vs

p240.343

CH+0.7 (10%)

SI (14%)

CU (16%)

FB-1.0 (51%)

SL-5.6 (23%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.453 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.1M
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-4	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.1M		$1.0M	+$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	6	6	25	106	42	13	4	100%	4.2	32.1%	13.5%	18.6%	4.7%	4.97	4.70	—
2021	23	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	6	6	25	106	42	13	4	100%	4.2	39.6%	12.3%	27.4%	3.8%	4.97	3.38	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	124	579	156	59	28	100%	4.6	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	6.7%	6.88	6.29	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	124	579	156	59	28	100%	4.6	26.9%	10.2%	16.8%	4.8%	6.88	4.94	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	22	137	620	160	70	21	71%	4.4	23.6%	11.6%	12.0%	3.9%	5.20	4.70	+0.3
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	22	137	620	160	70	21	71%	4.4	23.6%	11.6%	12.0%	3.9%	5.20	4.70	+0.3
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	22	137	620	160	70	21	71%	4.4	25.8%	11.3%	14.5%	3.4%	5.20	4.29	+1.0
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	148	618	148	44	20	97%	4.8	23.3%	7.0%	16.2%	3.5%	4.14	3.94	+1.7
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	148	618	148	44	20	97%	4.8	23.3%	7.0%	16.2%	3.5%	4.14	3.94	+1.7
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	30	148	618	148	44	20	97%	4.8	23.9%	7.1%	16.8%	3.2%	4.14	3.75	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			43	33	203	890	208	77	35	77%	4.7	23.4%	8.7%	14.7%	3.9%	4.96	4.43	+1.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	KC	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	22.8%	7.9%	14.9%	3.5%	4.64	4.48	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	109	461	102	37	17	100%	6.1	22.2%	8.1%	14.1%	3.7%	4.64	4.64	+0.3
2028	30	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	103	433	93	37	17	100%	6.0	21.5%	8.4%	13.1%	3.9%	4.76	4.85	+0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	96	404	84	36	16	100%	6.0	20.8%	8.8%	12.0%	4.1%	4.95	5.08	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	KC	17	17	104	439	97	36	15	100%	6.1	22.2%	8.1%	14.1%	3.4%	4.49	4.49	+0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	97	410	88	35	15	100%	6.1	21.5%	8.4%	13.1%	3.6%	4.60	4.69	+0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	KC	15	15	91	384	80	34	14	100%	6.1	20.8%	8.8%	12.0%	3.8%	4.78	4.91	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		92	82	495	2123	473	181	79	89%	5.4	22.3%	8.5%	13.8%	3.7%	4.76	4.34	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	33	200	857	191	73	32	89%	5.4	22.3%	8.5%	13.8%	3.7%	4.76	4.34	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		95	85	434	1923	453	194	89	89%	4.6	23.5%	10.1%	13.5%	4.6%	5.30	4.93	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	39	200	885	208	89	41	89%	4.6	23.5%	10.1%	13.5%	4.6%	5.30	4.93	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alec Marsh (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	22.8%	7.9%	3.5%	—	4.85	21.5%	13.1%	307	+0.37	—	—	—
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	533	71
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,146	70
Nathan Eovaldi R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	28	SP	3.49	22.2%	4.2%	3.2%	.283	3.44	25.1%	19.2%	298	-0.05	2.44	1,378	69
Joe Ross R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	28	SP	3.95	23.7%	6.5%	3.7%	.266	3.90	19.5%	10.6%	86	-0.05	3.19	807	68
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	67
Anthony DeSclafani R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	22.3%	5.8%	4.6%	.290	3.95	22.6%	16.0%	368	-0.52	3.38	981	67
Jesse Chavez R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	31	SP	3.87	20.2%	6.8%	2.9%	.309	4.29	22.0%	16.2%	300	+0.42	2.03	804	66
Jordan Lyles R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	28	SP	4.34	24.4%	8.8%	4.0%	.283	4.70	18.1%	10.8%	417	+0.36	3.44	1,080	66
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	65
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	65
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	65
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	65
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	65
Nate Karns R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	28	SP-	3.88	24.2%	10.6%	2.7%	.322	4.46	27.1%	20.7%	45	+0.58	3.88	287	65
Nick Tropeano R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	28	SP-	4.96	20.3%	9.2%	4.4%	.336	3.93	22.7%	10.0%	83	-1.03	2.34	446	64
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	205	64
Sam Gaviglio R 2018 · 4.31 FIP	28	SP	4.31	19.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.298	4.27	21.5%	16.3%	122	-0.04	3.66	754	64
Brian Van Belle R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP	5.33	18.2%	8.3%	5.0%	.289	3.50	17.2%	12.3%	199	-1.83	3.13	556	64
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	64
Hector Velázquez R 2017 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	18.0%	6.6%	2.2%	.251	4.28	16.7%	7.4%	158	+0.63	2.75	536	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	103	21.8%	8.3%	1.46	4.74
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56