Alec Marsh
P
Kansas City Royals
Age 28
RHP
6'2" / 220 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 1.0 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 114 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 106
ERA4.63
FIP4.48
K%22.9%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%14.9%
ROS IP114
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4594.2
Whiff%
p3723.5%
K%
p5122.4%
xwOBA vs
p240.343
CH+0.7 (10%)
SI (14%)
CU (16%)
FB-1.0 (51%)
SL-5.6 (23%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 6 | 6 | 25 | 106 | 42 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 4.2 | 32.1% | 13.5% | 18.6% | 5.0% | 4.97 | 4.82 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 6 | 6 | 25 | 106 | 42 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 4.2 | 39.6% | 12.3% | 27.4% | 3.8% | 4.97 | 3.38 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 124 | 579 | 156 | 59 | 28 | 100% | 4.6 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 7.5% | 6.88 | 6.72 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 124 | 579 | 156 | 59 | 28 | 100% | 4.6 | 26.9% | 10.2% | 16.8% | 4.8% | 6.88 | 4.94 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 22 | 137 | 620 | 160 | 70 | 21 | 71% | 4.4 | 23.7% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 4.0% | 5.20 | 4.78 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 22 | 137 | 620 | 160 | 70 | 21 | 71% | 4.4 | 25.8% | 11.3% | 14.5% | 3.4% | 5.20 | 4.29 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 30 | 148 | 618 | 148 | 44 | 20 | 97% | 4.8 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 16.3% | 3.4% | 4.14 | 3.91 | +2.6 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 30 | 148 | 618 | 148 | 44 | 20 | 97% | 4.8 | 23.9% | 7.1% | 16.8% | 3.2% | 4.14 | 3.75 | +2.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | KC | 13 | 13 | 77 | 324 | 74 | 26 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 14.9% | 3.5% | 4.63 | 4.48 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 109 | 461 | 103 | 38 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.3% | 8.2% | 14.1% | 3.6% | 4.63 | 4.64 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | KC | 17 | 17 | 103 | 433 | 94 | 37 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 3.8% | 4.76 | 4.84 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | KC | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 98 | 36 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.3% | 8.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | 4.57 | 4.58 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | KC | 16 | 16 | 97 | 410 | 89 | 35 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 3.7% | 4.69 | 4.77 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 77 | 67 | 404 | 1739 | 395 | 148 | 66 | 87% | 5.3 | 22.7% | 8.5% | 14.2% | 3.8% | 4.79 | 4.34 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 33 | 200 | 860 | 195 | 73 | 33 | 87% | 5.3 | 22.7% | 8.5% | 14.2% | 3.8% | 4.79 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 95 | 85 | 434 | 1923 | 455 | 196 | 94 | 89% | 4.6 | 23.6% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 4.9% | 5.30 | 5.09 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 39 | 200 | 885 | 209 | 90 | 43 | 89% | 4.6 | 23.6% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 4.9% | 5.30 | 5.09 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alec Marsh (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.5% | — | 4.74 | 22.0% | 13.6% | 212 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | .333 | 4.43 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | +0.05 | 3.67 | 381 | 67 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 66 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 65 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 65 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 64 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 64 |
| Joe Ross R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.95 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .266 | 4.05 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 86 | +0.10 | 3.19 | 806 | 62 |
| Joe Wieland R 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 62 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 62 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.94 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.01 | 3.91 | 223 | 62 |
| Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 62 |
| Bryan Evans R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .250 | 4.75 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.81 | 3.72 | 231 | 61 |
| Nathan Eovaldi R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.43 | 22.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | .283 | 3.38 | 25.1% | 19.2% | 298 | -0.05 | 2.49 | 1,354 | 61 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .292 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 7.8% | 118 | +0.05 | 3.22 | 254 | 61 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 61 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.37 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.49 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.12 | 3.37 | 205 | 60 |
| Jason Forjet R 2024 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 197 | 60 |
| Alex Cobb R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.20 | 14.0% | 6.9% | 4.4% | .366 | 4.43 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 344 | -0.77 | 2.78 | 844 | 60 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.56 | 18.0% | 6.6% | 2.1% | .251 | 4.23 | 16.7% | 7.4% | 158 | +0.67 | 2.82 | 536 | 60 |
| Anthony DeSclafani R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.53 | 22.3% | 5.8% | 4.7% | .290 | 3.98 | 22.6% | 16.0% | 368 | -0.55 | 3.41 | 981 | 60 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 96 | 22.2% | 8.3% | 1.42 | 4.68 |
| Félix Peña ('20) | 4 | 62 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.46 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Jharel Cotton ('22) | 4 | 58 | 19.8% | 9.2% | 1.59 | 4.50 |
| Andrew Suárez ('23) | 3 | 74 | 18.2% | 7.8% | 1.51 | 5.02 |