Alec Marsh
P
Kansas City Royals
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 28
RHP
6'2" / 220 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 1.0 · 2027
ERA4.62
FIP4.38
xFIP4.22
SIERA4.08
K%23.4%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%15.1%
IP114
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2027
K†5555
FB Velo
p4594.2
Whiff%
p3723.5%
K%
p5122.4%
xwOBA vs
p240.343
CH+0.7 (10%)
SI (14%)
CU (16%)
FB-1.0 (51%)
SL-5.6 (23%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 6 | 6 | 25 | 106 | 42 | 13 | 4 | 32.1% | 13.5% | 4.7% | 4.97 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 27 | 27 | 124 | 579 | 156 | 59 | 28 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 6.7% | 6.88 | 6.30 | -1.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 31 | 22 | 137 | 620 | 160 | 70 | 21 | 23.7% | 11.7% | 3.5% | 5.20 | 4.51 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 31 | 30 | 148 | 618 | 148 | 44 | 20 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 4.14 | 3.87 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | KC | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 34 | 12 | 5 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 112 | 471 | 108 | 40 | 16 | 22.9% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.58 | 4.50 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 102 | 39 | 16 | 22.3% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 104 | 441 | 96 | 38 | 16 | 21.7% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 4.65 | 4.70 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 100 | 423 | 89 | 37 | 15 | 21.1% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 4.75 | 4.81 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | KC | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 83 | 36 | 15 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 4.86 | 4.94 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | KC | 17 | 17 | 91 | 384 | 76 | 35 | 15 | 19.8% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 4.99 | 5.08 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | KC | 16 | 16 | 86 | 362 | 69 | 34 | 14 | 19.0% | 9.4% | 4.0% | 5.13 | 5.23 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | KC | 15 | 15 | 80 | 339 | 62 | 33 | 14 | 18.2% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 5.29 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 95 | 85 | 434 | 1923 | 455 | 196 | 86 | 23.6% | 10.2% | 4.5% | 5.30 | 4.85 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 39 | 200 | 885 | 210 | 90 | 40 | 23.6% | 10.2% | 4.5% | 5.30 | 4.85 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alec Marsh (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 3.4% | — | 4.59 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 324 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Cory Gearrin R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 74 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.76 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.34 | 2.42 | 125 | 71 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.54 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .277 | 3.88 | 21.1% | 12.7% | 203 | +0.34 | 2.86 | 596 | 71 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.48 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.74 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.26 | 1.69 | 468 | 70 |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 70 |
| Hunter Strickland R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.45 | 21.6% | 9.3% | 1.8% | .304 | 4.62 | 17.9% | 9.1% | 70 | +1.17 | 2.30 | 511 | 70 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 69 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 69 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 68 |
| Paul Sewald R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.01 | 22.9% | 8.3% | 3.3% | .325 | 3.30 | 30.7% | 24.2% | 135 | -0.71 | 2.72 | 558 | 68 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 68 |
| Alan Busenitz R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.14 | 23.2% | 7.5% | 3.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 436 | 68 |
| Juan Minaya R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.92 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .318 | 4.38 | 21.5% | 9.7% | 118 | +0.46 | 3.19 | 446 | 68 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 283 | 68 |
| Luke Bard R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.55 | 21.5% | 7.7% | 4.2% | .295 | 5.03 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 51 | +0.48 | 2.87 | 388 | 67 |
| Ryan Thompson R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.35 | 20.2% | 7.0% | 3.8% | .316 | 3.06 | 23.3% | 16.4% | 129 | -1.29 | 2.72 | 472 | 67 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.70 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 4.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 158 | 67 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2028 · 3.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.83 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 3.54 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.29 | 3.54 | 348 | 67 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.61 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 4.2% | .350 | 5.75 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 137 | +1.14 | 4.26 | 258 | 67 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 67 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2023
Service 2.453 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $2M | +1.0 | $8M | +$6M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.6M |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $4M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $9M | $16M | +$7M | ||