Carson Seymour

P Sacramento River Cats

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 264 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AAASF	29	28	134	4.82	4.41	22.1%	10.1%	—	K 19.0% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.64
2025	26	MIX2 levels	32	18	113	4.14	4.27	23.6%	10.6%	1.5	K 21.1% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.57
2026	27	MIX2 levels	47	10	108	4.01	4.08	20.3%	9.8%	0.6	K 18.2% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.29
2027PROJ	28	MLBSF	6	6	39	4.99	5.10	19.8%	10.4%	0.1
2028PROJ86% MLB	29	MLBSF	7	7	46	5.07	5.18	19.4%	10.3%	0.1
2029PROJ89% MLB	30	MLBSF	7	7	41	5.19	5.32	18.9%	10.4%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo88

K%10

xwOBA vs10

Form4.05 ERA (proj 4.99) · K 15.0% (proj 19.8%) · BB 13.3% (proj 10.4%) ▼▼ last 60d · 13 IP through Oct 27

CompsClay Condrey (age 27) · Dustin Nippert (age 28) · Eddie Bonine (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA4.99

FIP5.10

K%19.8%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%9.4%

Proj IP48

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8897.2

Whiff%

p4023.8%

p1016.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.374

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	4	0	4	20	4	6	0	0%	1.1	20.0%	30.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	2.08	5.21	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	4	0	4	20	4	6	0	0%	1.1	20.0%	30.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	2.08	5.41	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	111	460	135	31	9	79%	4.6	22.4%	7.8%	14.6%	2.2%	3.08	3.39	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	19	111	460	135	31	9	79%	4.6	29.3%	6.7%	22.6%	2.0%	3.08	2.56	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	28	23	113	466	114	43	8	82%	4.0	19.8%	10.2%	9.7%	2.3%	3.99	3.96	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	28	23	113	466	114	43	8	82%	4.0	24.5%	9.2%	15.2%	1.7%	3.99	3.14	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	29	28	134	597	132	60	20	97%	4.6	19.0%	9.0%	10.0%	3.6%	4.82	4.64	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	29	28	134	597	132	60	20	97%	4.6	19.0%	9.0%	10.0%	3.6%	4.82	4.64	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	29	28	134	597	132	60	20	97%	4.6	22.1%	10.1%	12.1%	3.4%	4.82	4.41	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	18	113	491	116	52	16	56%	3.5	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	3.7%	4.14	4.57	+1.1
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	18	113	491	116	52	16	56%	3.5	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	3.7%	4.14	4.57	+1.1
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	18	113	491	116	52	16	56%	3.5	23.6%	10.6%	13.0%	3.3%	4.14	4.27	+1.5
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	10	108	458	93	45	12	21%	2.3	18.2%	9.1%	9.0%	2.9%	4.01	4.29	+0.3
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	10	108	458	93	45	12	21%	2.3	18.2%	9.1%	9.0%	2.9%	4.01	4.29	+0.3
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	10	108	458	93	45	12	21%	2.3	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	2.6%	4.01	4.08	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			41	4	68	296	49	27	15	10%	1.7	16.6%	9.1%	7.4%	5.1%	4.66	5.73	-0.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	SF	6	6	39	165	33	17	6	100%	6.5	19.8%	10.4%	9.4%	3.6%	4.99	5.10	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	54	228	44	24	8	100%	6.0	19.4%	10.3%	9.1%	3.7%	5.07	5.18	+0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	SF	7	7	46	194	37	20	7	100%	6.6	18.9%	10.4%	8.5%	3.8%	5.19	5.32	+0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	SF	7	7	46	194	38	20	7	100%	6.6	19.4%	10.3%	9.1%	3.7%	5.07	5.18	+0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	SF	7	7	41	173	33	18	7	100%	5.9	18.9%	10.4%	8.5%	3.8%	5.19	5.32	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	18	154	663	119	65	29	33%	2.8	18.0%	9.8%	8.2%	4.3%	4.92	5.21	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		71	23	200	858	154	84	38	32%	2.8	18.0%	9.8%	8.2%	4.3%	4.92	5.21	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		164	98	583	2492	500	233	73	60%	3.6	20.0%	9.4%	10.7%	2.9%	4.03	4.21	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	34	200	855	171	80	25	60%	3.6	20.0%	9.4%	10.7%	2.9%	4.03	4.21	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 76 IPFIP 3.51 → 3.75 (+0.24)K% 22.0% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.01%	—	×0.860	18.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.75%	—	×0.900	8.77%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.08%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.51 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASacramento River Cats · 77 IPFIP 3.45 → 3.82 (+0.37)K% 26.9% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.87%	—	×0.860	23.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.64%	—	×0.900	10.48%
HR / BF /BF	2.09%	÷0.938	×1.100	2.45%

Result: FIP 3.45 → 3.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASacramento River Cats · 134 IPFIP 4.34 → 4.64 (+0.30)K% 22.1% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.11%	—	×0.860	19.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.05%	—	×0.900	9.05%
HR / BF /BF	3.35%	÷1.010	×1.100	3.65%

Result: FIP 4.34 → 4.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 113 IPFIP 3.15 → 3.96 (+0.82)K% 24.5% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.46%	—	×0.810	19.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.23%	—	×1.100	10.15%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷0.906	×1.200	2.27%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 3.15 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Eugene Emeralds · 81 IPFIP 2.69 → 3.60 (+0.92)K% 32.0% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.05%	—	×0.770	24.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.53%	—	×1.150	7.51%
HR / BF /BF	2.67%	÷1.120	×1.250	2.98%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 2.69 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ASt. Lucie Mets · 30 IPFIP 2.17 → 2.82 (+0.65)K% 22.0% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.95%	—	×0.740	16.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.32%	—	×1.180	8.63%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.949	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.17 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Mets · 4 IPFIP 5.21 → 6.70 (+1.49)K% 20.0% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.680	13.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	30.00%	—	×1.250	37.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.958	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 5.21 → 6.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Seymour (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	19.8%	10.4%	3.6%	—	5.24	19.2%	8.8%	100	+0.14	—	—	—
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	71
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	70
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	70
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	69
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	68
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	67
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	66
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	66
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	65
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	65
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	65
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	65
Todd Wellemeyer R 2007 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	17.0%	10.8%	3.1%	.270	4.86	15.5%	6.4%	373	+0.12	3.35	615	65
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	65
Jefry Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.4%	13.5%	3.4%	.287	4.58	19.8%	6.8%	64	-0.45	3.30	578	64
Daulton Jefferies R 2024 · 5.05 FIP	28	SP-	5.05	15.0%	7.1%	4.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	265	64
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	64
Grant Judkins R 2024 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	16.8%	9.1%	4.2%	.264	5.80	14.9%	5.8%	124	+0.67	5.13	322	64
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	64
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	43	18.5%	10.2%	1.60	4.95
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*