Carson Seymour
P
Sacramento River Cats
+0.0
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 27
RHP
6'5" / 264 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.84
FIP4.91
xFIP4.44
SIERA4.42
K%20.9%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%10.5%
IP119
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
STUF4040
CTRL5050
CMD3535
K†5555
FB Velo
p8296.8
Whiff%
p2521.8%
K%
p1216.7%
xwOBA vs
p100.367
FB+1.6 (64%)
SI (42%)
CU (6%)
CT-0.9 (10%)
SL-3.5 (19%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Mets | 4 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.08 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 24 | 19 | 111 | 460 | 135 | 31 | 9 | 22.4% | 7.8% | 2.1% | 3.08 | 3.38 | +2.4 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 28 | 23 | 113 | 466 | 114 | 43 | 8 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 2.3% | 3.99 | 3.97 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 29 | 28 | 134 | 597 | 132 | 60 | 20 | 19.5% | 10.6% | 3.7% | 4.82 | 4.80 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 32 | 18 | 113 | 491 | 116 | 52 | 16 | 21.4% | 11.0% | 3.5% | 4.14 | 4.59 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 4 | 4 | 16 | 60 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 17.6% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 1.15 | 3.29 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SF | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 44 | 23 | 8 | 22.0% | 11.5% | 3.9% | 5.16 | 5.23 | -0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | SF | — | — | 63 | 262 | 56 | 26 | 9 | 21.5% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.17 | 4.75 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SF | 22 | 22 | 120 | 505 | 111 | 56 | 20 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 3.9% | 5.12 | 5.16 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SF | 21 | 21 | 117 | 494 | 106 | 54 | 19 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 3.9% | 5.12 | 5.17 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SF | 21 | 21 | 113 | 479 | 100 | 52 | 19 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 3.9% | 5.16 | 5.21 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SF | 20 | 20 | 109 | 462 | 94 | 51 | 18 | 20.4% | 10.9% | 3.9% | 5.23 | 5.29 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SF | 19 | 19 | 105 | 443 | 88 | 49 | 18 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.0% | 5.34 | 5.41 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SF | 18 | 18 | 100 | 423 | 81 | 48 | 17 | 19.1% | 11.3% | 4.1% | 5.46 | 5.54 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | SF | 17 | 17 | 95 | 402 | 74 | 46 | 17 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 4.2% | 5.59 | 5.68 | -0.5 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 90 | 379 | 67 | 44 | 16 | 17.7% | 11.7% | 4.3% | 5.73 | 5.83 | -0.6 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | SF | 15 | 15 | 84 | 355 | 60 | 42 | 16 | 16.9% | 11.9% | 4.4% | 5.89 | 5.99 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 121 | 92 | 491 | 2094 | 431 | 209 | 61 | 20.6% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 3.94 | 4.22 | +6.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 37 | 200 | 853 | 176 | 85 | 25 | 20.6% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 3.94 | 4.22 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carson Seymour (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.23 | 22.0% | 11.5% | 3.9% | — | 5.18 | 21.5% | 10.5% | 350 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 81 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 80 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 78 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.00 | 22.2% | 11.4% | 4.2% | .256 | 4.51 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 39 | -0.49 | 2.65 | 315 | 78 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 77 |
| Tyler Bashlor R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.81 | 20.7% | 11.7% | 3.6% | .258 | 4.07 | 23.7% | 13.0% | 38 | -0.74 | 2.55 | 253 | 76 |
| Branden Kline R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.44 | 20.3% | 11.5% | 4.7% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 167 | 76 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.55 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .325 | 4.15 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 153 | -0.40 | 4.02 | 328 | 76 |
| José Ramírez R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.63 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .218 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 206 | 75 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 75 |
| Michael Blazek R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.97 | 17.9% | 11.9% | 3.4% | .336 | 4.43 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 124 | -0.54 | 3.06 | 221 | 75 |
| Mike Mayers R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.97 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 4.5% | .315 | 4.28 | 26.0% | 17.2% | 189 | -0.69 | 1.82 | 722 | 75 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.81 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 4.2% | .341 | 4.59 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 71 | -0.22 | 3.74 | 223 | 75 |
| Hunter Parsons R 2025 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 4.3% | .274 | 6.70 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 29 | +1.77 | 4.76 | 183 | 75 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 75 |
| Kevin Ginkel R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.25 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 5.1% | .299 | 2.51 | 27.4% | 19.8% | 195 | -2.74 | 2.37 | 393 | 74 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 74 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.12 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .339 | 3.39 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.73 | 3.11 | 166 | 74 |
| Fernery Ozuna R 2026 · 5.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.86 | 19.5% | 13.5% | 4.9% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 157 | 74 |
| Cristofer Ogando R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.81 | 26.8% | 10.9% | 4.7% | .281 | 4.92 | 20.6% | 9.0% | 53 | +0.11 | 3.23 | 179 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.