Carson Seymour — OGILVIE

Carson Seymour P Sacramento River Cats

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 264 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION101 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.69

FIP4.84

K%19.2%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%9.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8897.2

Whiff%

p2922.3%

p1016.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.387

FB+1.6 (64%)

SI (42%)

CU (6%)

CT-0.9 (10%)

SL-3.5 (19%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	4	0	4	20	4	6	0	0%	1.1	20.0%	30.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	2.08	5.21	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	4	0	4	20	4	6	0	0%	1.1	20.0%	30.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	2.08	5.41	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	111	460	135	31	9	79%	4.6	22.4%	7.8%	14.6%	2.2%	3.08	3.39	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	19	111	460	135	31	9	79%	4.6	29.3%	6.7%	22.6%	2.0%	3.08	2.56	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	28	23	113	466	114	43	8	82%	4.0	19.8%	10.2%	9.7%	2.3%	3.99	3.96	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	28	23	113	466	114	43	8	82%	4.0	19.8%	10.2%	9.7%	2.3%	3.99	3.96	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	28	23	113	466	114	43	8	82%	4.0	24.5%	9.2%	15.2%	1.7%	3.99	3.14	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	29	28	134	597	132	60	20	97%	4.6	18.4%	9.0%	9.3%	3.6%	4.82	4.70	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	29	28	134	597	132	60	20	97%	4.6	18.4%	9.0%	9.3%	3.6%	4.82	4.70	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	29	28	134	597	132	60	20	97%	4.6	22.1%	10.1%	12.1%	3.4%	4.82	4.41	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	18	113	491	116	52	16	56%	3.5	20.5%	9.8%	10.7%	3.7%	4.14	4.61	+0.4
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	18	113	491	116	52	16	56%	3.5	20.5%	9.8%	10.7%	3.7%	4.14	4.61	+0.4
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	18	113	491	116	52	16	56%	3.5	23.6%	10.6%	13.0%	3.3%	4.14	4.27	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			34	3	61	272	45	25	14	9%	1.8	16.5%	9.2%	7.4%	5.1%	5.02	5.84	-0.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	40	9	101	434	89	43	11	22%	2.5	17.8%	9.2%	8.6%	2.8%	4.19	4.28	—
YTD	27	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	40	9	101	434	89	43	11	22%	2.5	17.8%	9.2%	8.6%	2.8%	4.19	4.28	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	SF	22	9	76	318	70	31	6	41%	3.5	22.0%	9.7%	12.3%	1.9%	3.79	3.51	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	SF	18	0	25	116	19	12	5	0%	1.4	16.4%	10.3%	6.0%	4.3%	5.40	5.39	-0.2
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	SF	18	0	25	116	19	12	5	0%	1.4	16.4%	10.3%	6.0%	4.3%	5.40	5.39	-0.2
ROS	27	MLB MLE	SF	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	19.2%	10.2%	9.0%	3.8%	4.69	4.84	-0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	SF	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	19.2%	10.2%	9.0%	3.8%	4.69	4.84	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	107	459	94	46	12	—	—	20.4%	9.9%	10.5%	2.6%	4.22	4.31	+0.7
FULL	27	MLB A+C	SF	—	—	31	130	94	46	12	—	—	72.0%	34.9%	37.0%	9.2%	14.60	6.48	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	84	353	68	37	14	100%	6.4	19.2%	10.3%	8.8%	3.9%	5.23	5.32	-0.4
2028	29	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	80	337	70	32	13	100%	6.6	20.8%	9.6%	11.2%	4.0%	5.14	5.13	-0.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	SF	11	11	75	317	64	31	13	100%	6.8	20.2%	9.9%	10.4%	4.2%	5.22	5.30	-0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	79	334	64	35	13	100%	6.6	19.2%	10.3%	8.8%	3.9%	5.23	5.32	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	76	321	67	31	13	100%	6.3	20.8%	9.6%	11.2%	4.0%	5.14	5.13	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	SF	11	11	71	300	61	30	12	100%	6.5	20.2%	9.9%	10.4%	4.2%	5.22	5.30	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	38	293	1253	241	123	53	51%	4.0	19.3%	9.8%	9.5%	4.3%	5.15	5.05	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		51	26	200	854	164	84	36	51%	4.0	19.3%	9.8%	9.5%	4.3%	5.15	5.05	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		157	97	576	2468	487	231	72	62%	3.7	19.7%	9.4%	10.4%	2.9%	4.06	4.23	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	34	200	856	169	80	25	62%	3.7	19.7%	9.4%	10.4%	2.9%	4.06	4.23	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Seymour (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	20.0%	10.5%	3.8%	—	5.25	20.0%	10.1%	238	+0.03	—	—	—
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	19.3%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.96	3.02	341	76
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	73
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	71
Jacob Wosinski R 2023 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	17.7%	12.4%	5.7%	.351	4.73	16.8%	5.2%	148	-1.58	3.89	181	71
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	71
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	71
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	70
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	69
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	69
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	69
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	69
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	69
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	68
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	68
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	68
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	67
Luis Romero R 2021 · 6.01 FIP	27	SW	6.01	13.8%	10.1%	5.1%	.293	5.70	11.6%	-1.5%	68	-0.31	4.00	293	67
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	67
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	67
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	80	20.0%	10.1%	1.54	5.16
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63