Carson Seymour
P
Sacramento River Cats
Age 27
RHP
6'5" / 264 lbs
AAA
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143134vR 125
ERA5.14
FIP5.40
K%20.6%
BB%11.7%
K-BB%9.0%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 124 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8296.8
Whiff%
p2521.8%
K%
p1216.7%
xwOBA vs
p100.367
FB+1.6 (64%)
SI (42%)
CU (6%)
CT-0.9 (10%)
SL-3.5 (19%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Mets | 4 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 30.0% | -10.0% | 0.0% | 2.08 | 5.21 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Mets | 4 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 30.0% | -10.0% | 0.0% | 2.08 | 5.41 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 19 | 111 | 460 | 135 | 31 | 9 | 79% | 4.6 | 22.4% | 7.8% | 14.6% | 2.0% | 3.08 | 3.28 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 19 | 111 | 460 | 135 | 31 | 9 | 79% | 4.6 | 29.3% | 6.7% | 22.6% | 2.0% | 3.08 | 2.56 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 28 | 23 | 113 | 466 | 114 | 43 | 8 | 82% | 4.0 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 3.99 | 4.11 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 28 | 23 | 113 | 466 | 114 | 43 | 8 | 82% | 4.0 | 24.5% | 9.2% | 15.2% | 1.7% | 3.99 | 3.14 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 29 | 28 | 134 | 597 | 132 | 60 | 20 | 97% | 4.6 | 19.5% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 4.82 | 4.78 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 29 | 28 | 134 | 597 | 132 | 60 | 20 | 97% | 4.6 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 4.82 | 4.41 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 18 | 113 | 491 | 116 | 52 | 16 | 56% | 3.5 | 21.4% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 3.8% | 4.14 | 4.76 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 18 | 113 | 491 | 116 | 52 | 16 | 56% | 3.5 | 23.6% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 3.3% | 4.14 | 4.27 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 20 | 9 | 72 | 312 | 62 | 31 | 7 | 45% | 3.6 | 18.4% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 2.3% | 4.65 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SF | 49 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 45 | 26 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 5.14 | 5.40 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SF | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 45 | 26 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 5.14 | 5.40 | -0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | SF | — | — | 124 | 531 | 107 | 57 | 16 | — | — | 20.2% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.85 | 4.68 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | SF | — | — | 56 | 237 | 107 | 57 | 16 | — | — | 45.2% | 23.8% | 21.3% | 6.6% | 10.67 | 5.94 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SF | 14 | 14 | 84 | 353 | 70 | 40 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 5.28 | 5.42 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SF | 13 | 13 | 80 | 337 | 72 | 35 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 4.1% | 5.21 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 75 | 317 | 66 | 34 | 13 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 4.2% | 5.29 | 5.38 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SF | 13 | 13 | 79 | 334 | 66 | 37 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 5.28 | 5.42 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SF | 13 | 13 | 76 | 321 | 69 | 33 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 4.1% | 5.21 | 5.22 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 62 | 32 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 4.2% | 5.29 | 5.38 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 105 | 41 | 319 | 1356 | 270 | 143 | 58 | 39% | 3.0 | 19.9% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 4.3% | 5.31 | 5.09 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 26 | 200 | 851 | 169 | 90 | 36 | 39% | 3.0 | 19.9% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 4.3% | 5.31 | 5.09 | +0.7 | ||
| Career | — | 137 | 97 | 547 | 2346 | 478 | 239 | 68 | 71% | 4.0 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.27 | +7.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 35 | 200 | 858 | 175 | 87 | 25 | 71% | 4.0 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.27 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carson Seymour (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.40 | 20.6% | 11.7% | 4.0% | — | 5.34 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 238 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 73 |
| Shawn Dubin R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.35 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .292 | 3.91 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 79 | -1.44 | 3.04 | 341 | 72 |
| Brian Edgington R 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 69 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 69 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.49 | 19.6% | 13.6% | 4.2% | .330 | 6.70 | 15.2% | 5.2% | 69 | +1.21 | 3.69 | 333 | 69 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 67 |
| Connor Schultz R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 66 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 66 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 66 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 66 |
| Darien Smith R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.67 | 19.0% | 12.9% | 2.8% | .212 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 102 | 66 |
| Colby Morris R 2024 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 66 |
| Trent Sellers R 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.09 | 23.5% | 14.2% | 4.0% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 236 | 65 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.40 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 4.5% | .325 | 4.40 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 107 | -1.00 | 4.00 | 464 | 65 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 65 |
| Sam Highfill R 2024 · 5.95 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.95 | 18.2% | 10.3% | 5.6% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.68 | 161 | 65 |
| Taylor Clarke R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.87 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .233 | 3.88 | 22.9% | 16.5% | 151 | -0.99 | 3.27 | 942 | 65 |
| Logan Martin R 2024 · 5.68 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.68 | 20.8% | 12.7% | 5.0% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 223 | 64 |
| Ty Madden R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.79 | 18.6% | 11.7% | 3.2% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 420 | 64 |
| Nick Fraze R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.29 | 14.9% | 11.8% | 3.6% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 278 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 74 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.57 | 5.24 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |