Xzavion Curry

P Syracuse Mets

Age 29 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	30	18	103	6.01	5.66	17.6%	7.2%	-0.3	K 16.0% · BB 6.6% · FIP 6.13
2025	27	MIX2 levels	21	11	54	7.88	7.29	10.9%	12.9%	-1.1	K 9.7% · BB 11.2% · FIP 7.17
2026	28	MIX2 levels	25	15	94	3.84	5.13	14.2%	6.9%	0.3	K 12.8% · BB 6.4% · FIP 5.35
2027PROJ	29	MLBNYM	22	22	133	5.33	5.67	12.6%	7.3%	-0.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBNYM	14	14	88	5.66	5.88	11.9%	7.6%	-0.5
2029PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBNYM	12	12	70	5.93	6.11	11.2%	7.9%	-0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs25

FB Velo10

K%10

Form6.46 ERA (proj 5.33) · K 15.9% (proj 12.6%) · BB 10.1% (proj 7.3%) · last 90d · 15 IP through Oct 27

CompsJuan Omar Espinoza (age 31) · Miguel Ruiz (age 29) · Travis Smith (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.33

FIP5.67

K%12.6%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%5.4%

Proj IP133

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 133 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL7070

CMD4545

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.8

Whiff%

p1017.6%

p1016.0%

xwOBA vs

p250.341

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	98	384	123	16	13	100%	5.1	24.6%	5.1%	19.6%	3.2%	2.30	3.41	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	98	384	123	16	13	100%	5.1	32.0%	4.2%	27.9%	3.4%	2.30	2.80	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	23	131	559	137	48	19	85%	4.9	21.9%	8.8%	13.1%	4.0%	4.18	4.56	+1.3
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	23	131	559	137	48	19	85%	4.9	24.5%	8.6%	15.9%	3.4%	4.18	3.99	+2.2
2023	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	41	9	95	404	67	29	12	22%	2.3	16.6%	7.2%	9.4%	3.0%	4.07	4.24	+0.3
2023	25	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	41	9	95	404	67	29	12	22%	2.3	16.6%	7.2%	9.4%	3.0%	4.07	4.25	+0.3
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	18	103	443	78	32	25	60%	3.4	16.0%	6.6%	9.4%	6.5%	6.01	6.13	-0.8
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	18	103	443	78	32	25	60%	3.4	16.0%	6.6%	9.4%	6.5%	6.01	6.13	-0.8
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	18	103	443	78	32	25	60%	3.4	17.6%	7.2%	10.4%	5.6%	6.01	5.66	-0.3
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	11	54	256	28	33	14	52%	2.6	9.7%	11.2%	-1.6%	6.3%	7.88	7.17	-1.1
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	11	54	256	28	33	14	52%	2.6	9.7%	11.2%	-1.6%	6.3%	7.88	7.17	-1.1
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	11	54	256	28	33	14	52%	2.6	10.9%	12.9%	-2.0%	5.5%	7.88	7.29	-1.1
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	15	94	393	56	27	17	60%	3.7	12.8%	6.4%	6.4%	4.6%	3.84	5.35	+0.1
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	15	94	393	56	27	17	60%	3.7	12.8%	6.4%	6.4%	4.6%	3.84	5.35	+0.1
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	15	94	393	56	27	17	60%	3.7	14.2%	6.9%	7.4%	4.3%	3.84	5.13	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			71	17	171	733	114	53	28	24%	2.4	15.6%	7.2%	8.3%	3.8%	4.52	4.82	-0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	NYM	22	22	133	562	71	41	24	100%	6.0	12.6%	7.3%	5.4%	4.3%	5.33	5.67	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	NYM	15	15	93	391	47	30	17	100%	6.2	11.9%	7.6%	4.4%	4.5%	5.66	5.88	-0.5
2029	31	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	74	311	35	25	15	100%	6.1	11.2%	7.9%	3.3%	4.7%	5.93	6.11	-0.6
2028	30	MLB CTX	NYM	14	14	88	372	44	28	17	100%	6.3	11.9%	7.6%	4.4%	4.5%	5.66	5.88	-0.5
2029	31	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	70	296	33	23	14	100%	5.8	11.2%	7.9%	3.3%	4.7%	5.93	6.11	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		97	43	329	1400	191	105	58	44%	3.4	13.7%	7.5%	6.2%	4.2%	5.12	5.18	-2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		59	26	200	850	116	64	35	44%	3.4	13.7%	7.5%	6.2%	4.2%	5.12	5.18	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		163	95	575	2439	430	181	109	58%	3.5	17.6%	7.4%	10.2%	4.5%	4.46	5.01	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	33	200	849	150	63	38	58%	3.5	17.6%	7.4%	10.2%	4.5%	4.46	5.01	+0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 72 IPFIP 4.54 → 4.81 (+0.27)K% 13.7% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.71%	—	×0.860	11.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.02%	—	×0.900	5.42%
HR / BF /BF	3.34%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.68%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.54 → 4.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 51 IPFIP 6.94 → 7.17 (+0.24)K% 11.2% → 9.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.25%	—	×0.860	9.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×0.900	11.25%
HR / BF /BF	5.83%	÷1.017	×1.100	6.31%

Result: FIP 6.94 → 7.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 61 IPFIP 6.20 → 6.95 (+0.75)K% 18.5% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.45%	—	×0.860	15.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.59%	—	×0.900	8.63%
HR / BF /BF	6.27%	÷0.925	×1.100	7.46%

Result: FIP 6.20 → 6.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAkron RubberDucks · 69 IPFIP 3.31 → 4.17 (+0.86)K% 28.4% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.37%	—	×0.810	22.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.74%	—	×1.100	7.41%
HR / BF /BF	3.19%	÷1.014	×1.200	3.78%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 3.31 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAColumbus Clippers · 53 IPFIP 4.53 → 5.05 (+0.51)K% 23.5% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.48%	—	×0.880	20.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.050	10.50%
HR / BF /BF	3.91%	÷1.001	×1.100	4.30%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.53 → 5.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Lake County Captains · 68 IPFIP 3.19 → 3.90 (+0.71)K% 29.6% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.63%	—	×0.770	22.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.44%	—	×1.150	5.11%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷1.222	×1.250	3.79%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 144).

Result: FIP 3.19 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ALynchburg Hillcats · 25 IPFIP 0.81 → 2.01 (+1.20)K% 40.4% → 29.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.43%	—	×0.740	29.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.26%	—	×1.180	5.02%
HR / BF /BF	1.06%	÷0.950	×1.300	1.46%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 0.81 → 2.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAkron RubberDucks · 5 IPFIP 6.48 → 8.77 (+2.29)K% 25.0% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.810	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.100	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	10.00%	÷0.893	×1.200	13.44%

Result: FIP 6.48 → 8.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Xzavion Curry (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.67	12.6%	7.3%	4.3%	—	5.98	11.6%	3.9%	166	+0.31	—	—	—
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	78
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	73
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	72
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	70
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	70
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	69
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	68
Brian Cooper R 2004 · 6.56 FIP	29	SW	6.56	11.5%	6.6%	6.6%	.239	3.68	9.6%	-1.4%	18	-2.88	3.68	159	68
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	67
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	67
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	67
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	66
Jared Fernandez R 2001 · 4.66 FIP	29	SW	4.66	8.8%	10.5%	1.8%	.267	3.95	14.0%	5.6%	89	-0.71	3.57	101	65
Chris Heston R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	29	SP-	5.88	13.6%	10.0%	4.9%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	321	65
Taylor Hill R 2018 · 5.66 FIP	29	SP-	5.66	12.0%	5.8%	5.2%	.321	5.15	13.9%	7.6%	27	-0.51	3.77	542	65
Josh Banks R 2009 · 6.01 FIP	27	SP-	6.01	9.0%	3.0%	6.0%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	108	65
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	64
Beau Sulser R 2023 · 5.21 FIP	29	SP-	5.21	13.3%	5.3%	4.7%	.285	6.15	16.3%	10.0%	68	+0.94	2.61	463	64
Luis Mateo R 2019 · 5.55 FIP	29	SP-	5.55	8.6%	13.4%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	160	64
Brian Powell R 2002 · 5.53 FIP	28	SP-	5.53	11.8%	8.3%	4.3%	.276	4.45	14.5%	7.3%	39	-1.08	4.45	212	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	78	13.3%	7.5%	1.63	5.19
Doug Waechter ('09)	1.9	77	13.3%	7.6%	1.59	5.34
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Jason Berken ('12)	1.2	83	14.3%	8.0%	1.41	5.36
Amaury Telemaco ('05)	2.8	70	15.0%	8.0%	1.48	4.94
John Cumberland ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.7	84	13.3%*	7.3%*	1.84*	4.67*
Jose Bautista ('88-'97, -2 WAR*)	3.4	86	14.0%*	5.8%*	1.72*	4.90*