Xzavion Curry
P
Syracuse Mets
Age 28
RHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 55 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146136vR 127
ERA5.48
FIP5.98
K%13.4%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%4.3%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 106 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1692.1
Whiff%
p2021.1%
K%
p1016.3%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
CU (18%)
SL-0.6 (39%)
FB-1.0 (38%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 19 | 98 | 384 | 123 | 16 | 13 | 100% | 5.1 | 24.6% | 5.1% | 19.6% | 2.8% | 2.30 | 3.19 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 19 | 98 | 384 | 123 | 16 | 13 | 100% | 5.1 | 32.0% | 4.2% | 27.9% | 3.4% | 2.30 | 2.80 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 23 | 131 | 559 | 137 | 48 | 19 | 85% | 4.9 | 21.9% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 4.0% | 4.18 | 4.55 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 23 | 131 | 559 | 137 | 48 | 19 | 85% | 4.9 | 24.5% | 8.6% | 15.9% | 3.4% | 4.18 | 3.99 | +2.2 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 41 | 9 | 95 | 404 | 67 | 29 | 12 | 22% | 2.3 | 16.6% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.07 | 4.25 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 41 | 9 | 95 | 404 | 67 | 29 | 12 | 22% | 2.3 | 16.6% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.07 | 4.25 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 18 | 103 | 443 | 78 | 32 | 25 | 60% | 3.4 | 16.3% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.01 | 6.45 | -1.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 18 | 103 | 443 | 78 | 32 | 25 | 60% | 3.4 | 17.6% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 5.6% | 6.01 | 5.66 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 11 | 54 | 256 | 28 | 33 | 14 | 52% | 2.6 | 9.9% | 13.1% | -3.2% | 6.2% | 7.88 | 7.33 | -1.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 11 | 54 | 256 | 28 | 33 | 14 | 52% | 2.6 | 10.9% | 12.9% | -2.0% | 5.5% | 7.88 | 7.29 | -1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | New York Mets | 12 | 9 | 51 | 215 | 33 | 13 | 10 | 75% | 4.2 | 13.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.80 | 5.61 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | NYM | 9 | 9 | 55 | 233 | 31 | 21 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 13.4% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.48 | 5.98 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | NYM | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 31 | 21 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 13.4% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.48 | 5.98 | -0.9 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 106 | 448 | 64 | 34 | 20 | — | — | 14.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.15 | 5.80 | -0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 56 | 238 | 64 | 34 | 20 | — | — | 26.9% | 14.4% | 12.6% | 8.6% | 9.66 | 7.37 | -1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 29 | 21 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 12.8% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.88 | 6.14 | -1.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 8 | 8 | 51 | 214 | 26 | 21 | 10 | 100% | 6.3 | 12.1% | 9.6% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 6.16 | 6.35 | -1.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 8 | 8 | 47 | 200 | 23 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 11.3% | 10.0% | 1.3% | 5.1% | 6.41 | 6.58 | -1.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 28 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 6.4 | 12.8% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.88 | 6.14 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 24 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 12.1% | 9.6% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 6.16 | 6.35 | -1.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 22 | 19 | 10 | 100% | 5.6 | 11.3% | 10.0% | 1.3% | 5.1% | 6.41 | 6.58 | -1.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 98 | 50 | 351 | 1487 | 205 | 125 | 61 | 51% | 3.6 | 13.8% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.29 | 5.26 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 28 | 200 | 848 | 117 | 71 | 35 | 51% | 3.6 | 13.8% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.29 | 5.26 | +0.3 | ||
| Career | — | 150 | 89 | 532 | 2261 | 411 | 178 | 103 | 59% | 3.5 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 4.5% | 4.60 | 5.05 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 33 | 200 | 851 | 154 | 67 | 39 | 59% | 3.5 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 4.5% | 4.60 | 5.05 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Xzavion Curry (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.98 | 13.4% | 9.1% | 4.5% | — | 6.35 | 12.1% | 2.5% | 152 | +0.37 | — | — | — |
| Kevin Miranda R 2024 · 7.02 FIP | 26 | SP- | 7.02 | 14.1% | 10.0% | 7.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 153 | 70 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2027 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 67 |
| David Griffin R 2025 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 65 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.85 | 14.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .341 | 5.33 | 13.2% | 0.6% | 66 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 254 | 64 |
| Francisco Cordova R 2029 · 5.28 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.28 | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | .261 | 4.78 | 7.1% | -0.6% | 83 | -0.50 | 4.78 | 115 | 62 |
| Brady Rodgers R 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.58 | 14.7% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.98 | 354 | 62 |
| Rafael Pineda R 2024 · 5.49 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.49 | 6.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 101 | 62 |
| Kohei Arihara R 2026 · 6.20 FIP | 28 | SP | 6.20 | 13.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | .262 | 4.67 | 16.4% | 9.2% | 94 | -1.53 | 4.67 | 135 | 62 |
| Luis Niebla R 2024 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 11.6% | 13.2% | 2.1% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 156 | 62 |
| Troy Miller R 2025 · 6.49 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.49 | 15.3% | 11.0% | 6.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.96 | 168 | 61 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 6.03 FIP | 28 | SW | 6.03 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 5.6% | .289 | 4.41 | 8.3% | -7.5% | 10 | -1.62 | 3.92 | 233 | 61 |
| Brian Edgington R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 60 |
| David Holman R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.04 | 10.0% | 8.3% | 3.2% | .284 | 5.57 | 8.9% | -1.8% | 35 | +0.53 | 5.04 | 129 | 59 |
| Daulton Jefferies R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.23 | 15.3% | 8.0% | 4.4% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 265 | 59 |
| Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 59 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2024 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 59 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.26 | 11.3% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 412 | 59 |
| Miller Hogan R 2024 · 6.64 FIP | 26 | SP | 6.64 | 14.0% | 11.9% | 5.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 168 | 59 |
| Mike Connolly R 2024 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 58 |
| Aaron Shortridge R 2025 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 4.4% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 378 | 58 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 52 | 12.4% | 9.5% | 1.84 | 5.96 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Edwin Jackson ('19) | 5 | 75 | 17.0% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 5.37 |
| Adam Plutko ('21) | 4 | 68 | 17.0% | 7.2% | 2.17 | 5.37 |