Xzavion Curry — OGILVIE

Xzavion Curry P Syracuse Mets

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs AAA ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION89 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137128vR 120

ERA4.98

FIP5.45

K%12.8%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%5.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL7070

CMD4545

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.7

Whiff%

p1018.0%

p1015.4%

xwOBA vs

p760.287

CU (18%)

SL-0.6 (39%)

FB-1.0 (38%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	98	384	123	16	13	100%	5.1	24.6%	5.1%	19.6%	3.2%	2.30	3.41	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	98	384	123	16	13	100%	5.1	32.0%	4.2%	27.9%	3.4%	2.30	2.80	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	23	131	559	137	48	19	85%	4.9	21.9%	8.8%	13.1%	4.0%	4.18	4.56	+0.5
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	23	131	559	137	48	19	85%	4.9	24.5%	8.6%	15.9%	3.4%	4.18	3.99	+1.4
2023	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	41	9	95	404	67	29	12	22%	2.3	16.6%	7.2%	9.4%	3.0%	4.07	4.24	+0.3
2023	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	41	9	95	404	67	29	12	22%	2.3	16.6%	7.2%	9.4%	3.0%	4.07	4.24	+0.3
2023	25	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	41	9	95	404	67	29	12	22%	2.3	16.6%	7.2%	9.4%	3.0%	4.07	4.25	+0.3
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	18	103	443	78	32	25	60%	3.4	15.7%	6.6%	9.1%	6.5%	6.01	6.16	-1.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	18	103	443	78	32	25	60%	3.4	15.7%	6.6%	9.1%	6.5%	6.01	6.16	-1.5
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	18	103	443	78	32	25	60%	3.4	17.6%	7.2%	10.4%	5.6%	6.01	5.66	-0.9
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	11	54	256	28	33	14	52%	2.6	9.3%	11.2%	-1.9%	6.3%	7.88	7.20	-1.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	11	54	256	28	33	14	52%	2.6	9.3%	11.2%	-1.9%	6.3%	7.88	7.20	-1.4
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	11	54	256	28	33	14	52%	2.6	10.9%	12.9%	-2.0%	5.5%	7.88	7.29	-1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			70	16	168	717	111	52	24	23%	2.4	15.5%	7.3%	8.2%	3.3%	4.28	4.56	-0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	New York Mets	23	13	89	368	52	25	13	57%	3.9	12.3%	6.3%	6.0%	3.8%	3.45	4.95	—
YTD	28	MLB MLE	New York Mets	23	13	89	368	52	25	13	57%	3.9	12.3%	6.3%	6.0%	3.8%	3.45	4.95	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	NYM	15	13	70	290	40	17	10	87%	4.7	13.8%	5.9%	7.9%	3.4%	3.45	4.57	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	NYM	8	0	18	78	12	8	3	0%	2.3	15.4%	10.3%	5.1%	3.8%	3.44	5.21	-0.1
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	NYM	8	0	18	78	12	8	3	0%	2.3	15.4%	10.3%	5.1%	3.8%	3.44	5.21	-0.1
ROS	28	MLB MLE	NYM	1	1	5	22	3	2	1	100%	5.1	12.8%	7.8%	5.0%	4.4%	4.98	5.45	-0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	NYM	1	1	5	21	3	2	1	100%	5.0	12.8%	7.8%	5.0%	4.4%	4.98	5.45	-0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	94	390	55	27	14	—	—	14.1%	6.8%	7.2%	3.6%	3.53	4.98	-0.1
FULL	28	MLB A+C	NYM	—	—	23	99	55	27	14	—	—	55.3%	27.0%	28.4%	14.1%	14.14	9.58	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	54	228	29	20	10	100%	6.0	12.9%	8.7%	4.2%	4.5%	5.73	5.98	-0.6
2028	30	MLB MLE	NYM	8	8	51	214	26	19	10	100%	6.3	12.2%	9.0%	3.2%	4.7%	6.01	6.19	-0.7
2027	29	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	51	215	28	19	10	100%	6.4	12.9%	8.7%	4.2%	4.5%	5.73	5.98	-0.6
2028	30	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	48	203	25	18	10	100%	6.0	12.2%	9.0%	3.2%	4.7%	6.01	6.19	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		87	33	273	1158	167	91	44	38%	3.1	14.4%	7.9%	6.5%	3.8%	4.87	4.98	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		64	24	200	849	122	67	32	38%	3.1	14.4%	7.9%	6.5%	3.8%	4.87	4.98	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		161	93	570	2414	423	179	105	58%	3.5	17.5%	7.4%	10.1%	4.4%	4.41	4.96	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	33	200	848	148	63	37	58%	3.5	17.5%	7.4%	10.1%	4.4%	4.41	4.96	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Xzavion Curry (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.86	13.0%	8.1%	4.5%	—	6.08	12.6%	3.7%	105	+0.22	—	—	—
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	70
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	69
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	66
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	65
Christian Bergman R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	15.3%	5.6%	4.0%	.309	4.62	15.0%	9.1%	322	-0.12	3.99	467	65
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	65
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.84	19.6%	8.0%	114	-2.22	3.68	136	65
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	64
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	64
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	64
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	63
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	62
Brady Rodgers R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	28	SP-	5.44	14.7%	9.0%	4.4%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	1.98	354	61
Adam Plutko R 2020 · 5.14 FIP	28	SW	5.14	12.9%	6.0%	4.3%	.281	6.53	17.8%	7.8%	68	+1.39	3.65	1,004	61
Jake Walkinshaw R 2023 · 6.54 FIP	27	SP-	6.54	12.7%	9.7%	6.0%	.288	3.94	15.2%	5.6%	118	-2.60	2.84	307	61
Reid Morgan R 2023 · 6.83 FIP	26	SW	6.83	15.6%	7.1%	7.6%	.322	5.19	17.2%	8.0%	46	-1.64	5.19	154	61
Kohei Arihara R 2021 · 6.04 FIP	28	SP	6.04	13.5%	7.3%	5.8%	.262	4.58	16.4%	9.2%	94	-1.46	4.58	135	60
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	60
David Holman R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	28	SW	5.28	10.0%	8.3%	3.6%	.284	5.80	8.9%	-1.8%	35	+0.52	5.28	129	60
Rafael Pineda R 2017 · 5.26 FIP	26	SP-	5.26	6.5%	9.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	101	60

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	52	12.7%	8.6%	1.77	5.71
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Adam Plutko ('21)	1.4	68	17.0%	7.2%	2.17	5.37
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Andrew Suárez ('23)	1.1	74	18.2%	7.8%	1.51	5.02