Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 18 | 101 | 414 | 109 | 26 | 11 | 86% | 4.8 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 13.3% | 3.7% | 3.39 | 4.32 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 18 | 101 | 414 | 109 | 26 | 11 | 86% | 4.8 | 26.3% | 6.3% | 20.0% | 2.7% | 3.39 | 3.13 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 22 | 120 | 527 | 93 | 29 | 19 | 92% | 5.0 | 14.5% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.83 | 6.36 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 22 | 120 | 527 | 93 | 29 | 19 | 92% | 5.0 | 17.6% | 5.5% | 12.1% | 3.6% | 5.83 | 4.33 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 42 | 5 | 65 | 315 | 52 | 37 | 20 | 12% | 1.5 | 14.5% | 12.3% | 2.2% | 7.0% | 6.78 | 7.30 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 42 | 5 | 65 | 315 | 52 | 37 | 20 | 12% | 1.5 | 16.5% | 11.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.78 | 7.21 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 2 | 59 | 232 | 44 | 21 | 4 | 6% | 1.8 | 16.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 2.0% | 2.75 | 3.83 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 2 | 59 | 232 | 44 | 21 | 4 | 6% | 1.8 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 1.7% | 2.75 | 3.56 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 47 | 0 | 58 | 236 | 54 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.5% | 5.6% | 12.9% | 1.4% | 2.64 | 3.02 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 47 | 0 | 58 | 236 | 54 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.9% | 5.1% | 17.8% | 1.3% | 2.64 | 2.53 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 21 | 0 | 27 | 122 | 30 | 7 | 8 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.9% | 4.5% | 16.3% | 8.7% | 7.42 | 6.66 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | PHI | 66 | 0 | 69 | 293 | 50 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | PHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 96 | 415 | 80 | 27 | 16 | — | — | 19.3% | 6.5% | 12.8% | 4.0% | 5.30 | 5.09 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 17.1% | 6.8% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.10 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 63 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 49 | 20 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.5% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 59 | 0 | 62 | 263 | 46 | 20 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 43 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.93 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.5% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 24 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 28 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 87 | 0 | 92 | 388 | 68 | 30 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.5% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.41 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 148 | 65 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.5% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 188 | 47 | 430 | 1846 | 315 | 138 | 92 | 25% | 2.3 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 5.0% | 4.65 | 5.34 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 87 | 22 | 200 | 859 | 147 | 64 | 43 | 25% | 2.3 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 5.0% | 4.65 | 5.34 | +0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Colin Peluse (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.75 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 186 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 88 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 87 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2029 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 84 |
| Anthony Bass R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.57 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .300 | 3.39 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 123 | -0.18 | 2.93 | 432 | 84 |
| Chris Leroux R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 82 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 82 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 81 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .359 | 5.26 | 12.8% | 2.8% | 47 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 108 | 81 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.71 | 3.49 | 212 | 81 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 80 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.40 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 1.5% | .276 | 4.18 | 19.0% | 11.2% | 192 | +0.78 | 3.40 | 295 | 79 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.99 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.16 | 21.2% | 13.3% | 48 | +0.17 | 3.23 | 253 | 79 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 79 |
| Francisco Mendoza R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.11 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.8% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 120 | 79 |
| Theo Denlinger R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.20 | 15.3% | 5.4% | 3.1% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 140 | 78 |
| Pedro Villarreal R 2025 · 3.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.34 | 14.8% | 4.1% | 1.8% | .306 | 5.91 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 26 | +2.57 | 3.34 | 102 | 78 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.72 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | .311 | 5.88 | 16.9% | 4.6% | 74 | +1.16 | 3.33 | 258 | 78 |
| Johnny Magliozzi R 2024 · 3.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.31 | 17.1% | 5.9% | 1.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 131 | 78 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.70 | 20.1% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 523 | 78 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 64 | 17.4% | 7.4% | 1.21 | 4.61 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |