Zebby Matthews — OGILVIE

Zebby Matthews P Minnesota Twins

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION154 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.57

FIP4.16

K%21.1%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%14.5%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p2621.9%

p3419.8%

xwOBA vs

p340.330

SL+3.3 (25%)

SI (6%)

CU (6%)

CT-1.3 (13%)

CH-2.2 (11%)

FB-6.4 (45%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-4	$4M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	0	3	10	6	0	0	0%	1.5	60.0%	0.0%	60.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.97	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	0	3	10	6	0	0	0%	1.5	60.0%	0.0%	60.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.90	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	105	424	112	15	14	91%	4.8	20.0%	4.1%	15.9%	3.7%	3.84	3.96	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	105	424	112	15	14	91%	4.8	20.0%	4.1%	15.9%	3.7%	3.84	3.96	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	105	424	112	15	14	91%	4.8	26.4%	3.5%	22.9%	3.3%	3.84	3.13	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	26	135	551	157	18	18	96%	5.0	24.4%	3.4%	21.1%	3.5%	3.74	3.36	+2.5
2024	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	26	135	551	157	18	18	96%	5.0	24.4%	3.4%	21.1%	3.5%	3.74	3.36	+2.5
2024	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	27	26	135	551	157	18	18	96%	5.0	28.5%	3.3%	25.2%	3.3%	3.74	2.91	+3.4
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	116	502	135	33	13	100%	4.8	25.3%	6.4%	18.9%	2.6%	4.34	3.18	+2.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	116	502	135	33	13	100%	4.8	25.3%	6.4%	18.9%	2.6%	4.34	3.18	+2.5
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	116	502	135	33	13	100%	4.8	26.9%	6.6%	20.3%	2.6%	4.34	3.08	+2.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			46	46	236	1031	230	72	46	100%	5.1	22.3%	7.0%	15.3%	4.5%	5.45	4.60	+0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	28	28	154	651	132	48	32	100%	5.5	19.4%	7.2%	12.2%	5.0%	4.92	5.14	-0.4
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	28	28	154	651	132	48	32	100%	5.5	19.4%	7.2%	12.2%	5.0%	4.92	5.14	-0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	MIN	7	7	34	151	33	11	9	100%	4.9	21.9%	7.3%	14.6%	6.0%	4.72	5.45	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	MIN	21	21	119	500	99	37	23	100%	5.7	19.8%	7.4%	12.4%	4.6%	4.98	4.89	+0.0
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	MIN	21	21	119	500	99	37	23	100%	5.7	19.8%	7.4%	12.4%	4.6%	4.98	4.89	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB MLE	MIN	2	2	12	50	10	3	2	100%	5.9	21.1%	6.6%	14.5%	3.7%	4.57	4.16	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	MIN	2	2	12	51	11	3	2	100%	6.0	21.1%	6.6%	14.5%	3.7%	4.58	4.17	+0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	165	701	142	51	34	—	—	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	4.8%	4.89	5.07	-0.3
FULL	26	MLB A+C	MIN	—	—	131	554	142	51	34	—	—	25.7%	9.3%	16.5%	6.1%	6.18	5.45	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIN	25	25	152	643	140	43	26	100%	6.1	21.8%	6.8%	15.1%	4.0%	4.84	4.69	+0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	25	25	152	643	139	44	26	100%	6.1	21.7%	6.9%	14.8%	4.1%	4.80	4.78	+0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIN	24	24	145	614	129	44	26	100%	6.1	21.1%	7.1%	14.0%	4.3%	4.88	4.94	-0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	MIN	23	23	137	577	118	43	26	100%	5.9	20.4%	7.4%	13.0%	4.5%	5.04	5.15	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIN	24	24	145	612	134	41	25	100%	6.0	21.8%	6.8%	15.1%	4.0%	4.85	4.70	+0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	24	24	145	612	133	42	25	100%	6.0	21.7%	6.9%	14.8%	4.1%	4.81	4.79	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIN	23	23	138	583	123	42	25	100%	6.0	21.1%	7.1%	14.0%	4.3%	4.89	4.95	-0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	MIN	22	22	130	549	112	41	25	100%	5.9	20.4%	7.4%	13.0%	4.5%	5.05	5.16	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		141	141	805	3433	741	241	147	100%	5.7	21.6%	7.0%	14.6%	4.3%	5.05	4.52	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	853	184	60	37	100%	5.7	21.6%	7.0%	14.6%	4.3%	5.05	4.52	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		103	98	513	2138	479	115	80	95%	5.0	22.4%	5.4%	17.0%	3.8%	4.23	3.95	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	38	200	834	187	45	31	95%	5.0	22.4%	5.4%	17.0%	3.8%	4.23	3.95	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zebby Matthews (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.89	25.2%	5.6%	3.3%	—	4.80	21.5%	14.6%	450	+0.91	—	—	—
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	77
Connor McCullough R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	21.8%	6.4%	4.7%	.280	4.09	19.9%	12.5%	148	-0.57	3.68	261	76
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	76
Zack Wheeler R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.28	1,586	75
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	75
Caleb Kilian R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	15.4%	6.2%	3.8%	.290	3.57	21.4%	13.2%	105	-1.09	2.42	444	74
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	74
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	73
Ian Mejia R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.8%	6.4%	3.9%	.300	4.73	17.1%	6.8%	318	+0.11	3.94	439	73
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	73
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	72
Isaac Coffey R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP	5.00	24.8%	7.5%	5.6%	.266	4.38	22.2%	10.7%	170	-0.62	3.67	287	72
Julian Merryweather R 2017 · 3.79 FIP	25	SP	3.79	19.4%	6.6%	2.7%	.330	2.18	27.3%	16.4%	13	-1.61	2.18	547	72
Wilmer Font R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	26	SP	3.82	17.0%	4.9%	2.8%	.277	3.84	26.2%	19.1%	263	+0.02	2.76	345	72
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	71
Tyler Stuart R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	2.0%	.280	3.87	20.3%	11.8%	142	+0.32	3.53	252	71
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	71
Dustin Beggs R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	15.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.329	5.09	11.3%	3.6%	48	+0.70	3.40	407	71
Nathan Eovaldi R 2016 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP	4.71	18.5%	7.2%	4.1%	.272	4.29	22.6%	15.6%	179	-0.42	2.44	1,378	71
Trent Baker R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	24	SP	3.88	16.3%	6.0%	2.5%	.279	4.28	19.1%	10.1%	247	+0.40	3.88	490	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	131	21.7%	6.9%	1.59	4.82
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Sam Gaviglio ('19)	1.5	98	19.3%	6.9%	1.69	4.84
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54