Zebby Matthews
P
Minnesota Twins
Age 26
RHP
6'5" / 225 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 1.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION101 act + 45 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.70
FIP4.32
K%22.0%
BB%6.3%
K-BB%15.7%
ROS IP45
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 146 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5795.0
Whiff%
p3523.2%
K%
p3219.6%
xwOBA vs
p340.330
SL+3.3 (25%)
SI (6%)
CU (6%)
CT-1.3 (13%)
CH-2.2 (11%)
FB-6.4 (45%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 60.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -1.97 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 60.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.90 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 20 | 105 | 424 | 112 | 15 | 14 | 91% | 4.8 | 20.0% | 4.1% | 15.9% | 3.3% | 3.84 | 3.77 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 20 | 105 | 424 | 112 | 15 | 14 | 91% | 4.8 | 26.4% | 3.5% | 22.9% | 3.3% | 3.84 | 3.13 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 27 | 26 | 135 | 551 | 157 | 18 | 18 | 96% | 5.0 | 24.7% | 3.4% | 21.3% | 3.5% | 3.74 | 3.38 | +3.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 27 | 26 | 135 | 551 | 157 | 18 | 18 | 96% | 5.0 | 28.5% | 3.3% | 25.2% | 3.3% | 3.74 | 2.91 | +3.9 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 116 | 502 | 135 | 33 | 13 | 100% | 4.8 | 25.8% | 6.7% | 19.1% | 2.5% | 4.34 | 3.15 | +3.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 116 | 502 | 135 | 33 | 13 | 100% | 4.8 | 26.9% | 6.6% | 20.3% | 2.6% | 4.34 | 3.08 | +3.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 87 | 29 | 23 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.5% | 6.9% | 12.6% | 5.6% | 4.62 | 5.41 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIN | 7 | 7 | 45 | 189 | 41 | 12 | 8 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.0% | 6.3% | 15.7% | 4.2% | 4.70 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIN | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 42 | 12 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.0% | 6.3% | 15.7% | 4.2% | 4.71 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 146 | 615 | 128 | 41 | 31 | — | — | 20.9% | 6.6% | 14.3% | 5.0% | 4.64 | 5.08 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 112 | 471 | 128 | 41 | 31 | — | — | 27.2% | 8.7% | 18.6% | 6.5% | 6.08 | 5.49 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 70 | 294 | 67 | 18 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 16.5% | 4.0% | 4.68 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 68 | 285 | 64 | 18 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.5% | 6.3% | 16.2% | 4.1% | 4.65 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 65 | 273 | 60 | 18 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.9% | 6.5% | 15.4% | 4.3% | 4.73 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 61 | 256 | 54 | 18 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.2% | 6.8% | 14.4% | 4.5% | 4.89 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 63 | 17 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 16.5% | 4.0% | 4.69 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 61 | 17 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.5% | 6.3% | 16.2% | 4.1% | 4.66 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 57 | 17 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.9% | 6.5% | 15.4% | 4.3% | 4.74 | 4.80 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 52 | 17 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.2% | 6.8% | 14.4% | 4.5% | 4.90 | 5.01 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 86 | 86 | 478 | 2048 | 459 | 133 | 89 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 16.0% | 4.4% | 5.00 | 4.42 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 857 | 192 | 56 | 37 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 16.0% | 4.4% | 5.00 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 93 | 88 | 460 | 1913 | 439 | 99 | 70 | 95% | 4.9 | 22.9% | 5.2% | 17.8% | 3.7% | 4.09 | 3.83 | +8.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 38 | 200 | 831 | 191 | 43 | 30 | 95% | 4.9 | 22.9% | 5.2% | 17.8% | 3.7% | 4.09 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zebby Matthews (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.88 | 25.4% | 5.7% | 3.3% | — | 4.65 | 22.4% | 16.1% | 202 | +0.77 | — | — | — |
| Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 78 |
| Christian Scott R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.64 | 24.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | .249 | 3.95 | 27.5% | 17.8% | 68 | -0.69 | 2.65 | 302 | 78 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 74 |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 197 | 74 |
| Brandon White R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.08 | 24.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 264 | 73 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 73 |
| Mat Latos R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 73 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 72 |
| Bryan Evans R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .250 | 4.75 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.81 | 3.72 | 231 | 72 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 72 |
| Tyson Hardin R 2024 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.45 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47 | 177 | 72 |
| Emmet Sheehan R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 26.6% | 7.4% | 4.3% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.66 | 364 | 71 |
| Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.78 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 3.9% | .290 | 3.57 | 22.0% | 13.2% | 95 | -1.21 | 2.38 | 434 | 71 |
| Brett Sears R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.56 | 23.9% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 167 | 71 |
| Luke Weaver R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.32 | 23.3% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .346 | 4.34 | 20.7% | 13.8% | 225 | +0.02 | 2.26 | 1,022 | 70 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 70 |
| Markus Solbach R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.61 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.76 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 111 | +1.15 | 3.25 | 391 | 70 |
| Julian Merryweather R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.60 | 19.4% | 6.6% | 2.4% | .330 | 2.18 | 27.3% | 16.4% | 13 | -1.42 | 2.18 | 530 | 70 |
| Hunter Dobbins R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.33 | 17.6% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 463 | 70 |
| Wilmer Font R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.55 | 17.0% | 4.9% | 2.3% | .277 | 3.87 | 26.2% | 19.1% | 263 | +0.32 | 2.78 | 345 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 67 | 22.8% | 6.3% | 1.55 | 4.63 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| Matt Andriese ('21) | 7 | 73 | 21.7% | 6.7% | 1.34 | 4.63 |