Zebby Matthews
P
St. Paul Saints
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 26
RHP
6'5" / 225 lbs
AAA
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.7 · 2027
ERA4.74
FIP3.95
xFIP3.81
SIERA3.82
K%24.8%
BB%6.5%
K-BB%18.4%
IP65
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2027
K†6060
FB Velo
p7496.2
Whiff%
p6427.5%
K%
p6524.9%
xwOBA vs
p320.333
SL+3.3 (25%)
SI (6%)
CU (6%)
CT-1.3 (13%)
CH-2.2 (11%)
FB-6.4 (45%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 22 | 20 | 105 | 424 | 112 | 15 | 14 | 20.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.84 | 3.95 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 27 | 26 | 135 | 551 | 157 | 18 | 18 | 24.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.74 | 3.38 | +2.9 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 24 | 24 | 116 | 502 | 135 | 33 | 13 | 25.8% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 4.34 | 3.17 | +2.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 3 | 3 | 12 | 61 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 14.4% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.76 | 7.70 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIN | 26 | — | 26 | 111 | 28 | 7 | 4 | 25.6% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.03 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 39 | 172 | 38 | 11 | 9 | 22.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.07 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 70 | 18 | 9 | 25.6% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 4.35 | 4.04 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 69 | 18 | 9 | 25.6% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 4.18 | 4.06 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 62 | 264 | 66 | 17 | 9 | 25.1% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 4.16 | 4.14 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 63 | 17 | 9 | 24.5% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 4.20 | 4.23 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 58 | — | 58 | 247 | 59 | 17 | 9 | 23.9% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 4.28 | 4.34 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 55 | 17 | 9 | 23.3% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 4.38 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 51 | 16 | 9 | 22.7% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 4.50 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 47 | 16 | 8 | 21.9% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 4.63 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 43 | 15 | 8 | 21.2% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 4.77 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 39 | 15 | 8 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 4.93 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 78 | 73 | 371 | 1548 | 365 | 74 | 53 | 23.6% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.10 | 3.61 | +7.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 39 | 200 | 834 | 197 | 40 | 29 | 23.6% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.10 | 3.61 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zebby Matthews (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.03 | 25.6% | 6.5% | 3.4% | — | 4.08 | 25.4% | 18.9% | 191 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.36 | 26.6% | 8.0% | 2.7% | .291 | 2.98 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 63 | -0.38 | 2.67 | 178 | 77 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 77 |
| Jonathan Aro R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.71 | 25.3% | 6.9% | 3.4% | .252 | 3.57 | 14.6% | 8.1% | 108 | -0.14 | 2.57 | 323 | 76 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.48 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.74 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.26 | 1.69 | 468 | 75 |
| Shawn Tolleson R 2027 · 3.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.07 | 25.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | .284 | 4.76 | 17.3% | 12.5% | 36 | +1.69 | 3.07 | 109 | 75 |
| James Farris R 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 24.4% | 6.6% | 3.4% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 170 | 75 |
| Brandon Maurer R 2026 · 2.98 FIP | 26 | SW | 2.98 | 24.0% | 6.0% | 2.1% | .286 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 11.4% | 114 | +1.30 | 2.98 | 234 | 75 |
| Trevor Brigden R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.50 | 27.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | .303 | 4.32 | 25.2% | 13.6% | 113 | +0.82 | 3.50 | 196 | 75 |
| Zach McAllister R 2027 · 2.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.83 | 28.1% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.89 | 23.5% | 16.0% | 159 | +1.06 | 2.83 | 363 | 74 |
| Simon Castro R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 74 |
| Michael Tonkin R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 25.4% | 7.6% | 4.3% | .338 | 4.05 | 27.3% | 16.7% | 85 | -0.26 | 2.30 | 480 | 73 |
| Alex Powers R 2026 · 2.95 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.95 | 25.8% | 6.4% | 2.2% | .257 | 3.54 | 26.5% | 16.8% | 98 | +0.59 | 2.81 | 264 | 73 |
| Trevor Frank R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.11 | 22.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | .327 | 5.05 | 17.6% | 11.5% | 38 | +0.94 | 2.39 | 154 | 73 |
| Joe Broussard R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .316 | 3.73 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 95 | -0.09 | 2.62 | 304 | 73 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 73 |
| Lou Trivino R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.60 | 27.4% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .247 | 3.85 | 22.4% | 11.8% | 157 | +0.25 | 2.39 | 550 | 73 |
| Andrew Politi R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.37 | 26.1% | 8.5% | 2.6% | .238 | 4.87 | 20.1% | 8.8% | 69 | +1.50 | 3.37 | 292 | 72 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 72 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 72 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.2% | .256 | 3.82 | 23.0% | 13.9% | 56 | -0.63 | 2.68 | 149 | 72 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2024
Service 2.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2030
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.4M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.5M |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $3M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $7M | $10M | +$3M | ||