Zebby Matthews

P Minnesota Twins

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.8 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX4 levels	27	26	135	3.74	2.91	28.5%	3.3%	4.2	K 24.6% · BB 3.4% · FIP 3.35
2025	25	MIX2 levels	24	24	116	4.34	3.08	26.9%	6.6%	3.3	K 25.6% · BB 6.4% · FIP 3.15
2026	26	MIX2 levels	30	30	165	4.86	4.81	21.4%	7.2%	1.1	K 20.7% · BB 7.0% · FIP 4.90
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIN	16	16	98	4.70	4.60	22.7%	6.6%	0.9
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBMIN	14	14	86	4.70	4.69	22.6%	6.7%	0.7
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBMIN	13	13	76	4.79	4.85	22.0%	6.9%	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 8.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.341First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$2M2029Arb-2$2M2030Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo60

K%44

xwOBA vs42

Form5.06 ERA (proj 4.70) · K 25.9% (proj 22.7%) · BB 6.5% (proj 6.6%) ▲ last 60d · 27 IP through Oct 27

CompsJames McDonald (age 27) · Claudio Vargas (age 27) · Jeff Niemann (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.70

FIP4.60

K%22.7%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%16.2%

Proj IP98

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p3222.7%

p4421.3%

xwOBA vs

p420.321

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.341 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$3M	+$1M
2029	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.3M
2030	Arb-3	$2M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	0	3	10	6	0	0	0%	1.5	60.0%	0.0%	60.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.97	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	0	3	10	6	0	0	0%	1.5	60.0%	0.0%	60.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.90	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	105	424	112	15	14	91%	4.8	20.0%	4.1%	15.9%	3.7%	3.84	3.96	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	105	424	112	15	14	91%	4.8	26.4%	3.5%	22.9%	3.3%	3.84	3.13	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	26	135	551	157	18	18	96%	5.0	24.6%	3.4%	21.2%	3.5%	3.74	3.35	+3.4
2024	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	26	135	551	157	18	18	96%	5.0	24.6%	3.4%	21.2%	3.5%	3.74	3.35	+3.4
2024	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	27	26	135	551	157	18	18	96%	5.0	28.5%	3.3%	25.2%	3.3%	3.74	2.91	+4.2
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	116	502	135	33	13	100%	4.8	25.6%	6.4%	19.2%	2.6%	4.34	3.15	+3.2
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	116	502	135	33	13	100%	4.8	25.6%	6.4%	19.2%	2.6%	4.34	3.15	+3.2
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	116	502	135	33	13	100%	4.8	26.9%	6.6%	20.3%	2.6%	4.34	3.08	+3.3
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	165	696	149	50	33	100%	5.5	20.7%	7.0%	13.7%	4.9%	4.86	4.90	+0.9
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	165	696	149	50	33	100%	5.5	20.7%	7.0%	13.7%	4.9%	4.86	4.90	+0.9
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	165	696	149	50	33	100%	5.5	21.4%	7.2%	14.2%	4.7%	4.86	4.81	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			48	48	247	1076	247	74	47	100%	5.2	23.0%	6.9%	16.1%	4.4%	5.39	4.47	+2.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIN	16	16	98	414	94	27	17	100%	6.1	22.7%	6.6%	16.2%	4.0%	4.70	4.60	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	15	15	90	382	86	26	16	100%	6.0	22.6%	6.7%	15.9%	4.1%	4.69	4.68	+0.8
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIN	13	13	80	336	74	23	14	100%	6.1	22.0%	6.9%	15.1%	4.3%	4.78	4.84	+0.5
2030	30	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	68	288	61	21	13	100%	6.2	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	4.5%	4.94	5.05	+0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	14	14	86	363	82	24	15	100%	6.1	22.6%	6.7%	15.9%	4.1%	4.70	4.69	+0.7
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIN	13	13	76	321	71	22	14	100%	5.8	22.0%	6.9%	15.1%	4.3%	4.79	4.85	+0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	MIN	11	11	65	274	59	20	12	100%	5.9	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	4.5%	4.95	5.06	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		86	86	474	2031	458	140	88	100%	5.5	22.5%	6.9%	15.6%	4.3%	5.11	4.45	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	858	193	59	37	100%	5.5	22.5%	6.9%	15.6%	4.3%	5.11	4.45	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		105	100	524	2183	499	117	81	95%	5.0	22.9%	5.4%	17.5%	3.7%	4.23	3.89	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	38	200	834	191	45	31	95%	5.0	22.9%	5.4%	17.5%	3.7%	4.23	3.89	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 34 IPFIP 5.45 → 5.94 (+0.49)K% 21.9% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.85%	—	×0.860	18.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.28%	—	×0.900	6.56%
HR / BF /BF	5.96%	÷1.000	×1.100	6.56%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.45 → 5.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 37 IPFIP 1.56 → 1.81 (+0.25)K% 31.8% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.76%	—	×0.860	27.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.08%	—	×0.900	5.47%
HR / BF /BF	0.68%	÷1.253	×1.100	0.59%

Result: FIP 1.56 → 1.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAWichita Wind Surge · 55 IPFIP 1.44 → 2.18 (+0.74)K% 30.1% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.14%	—	×0.810	24.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.87%	—	×1.100	3.16%
HR / BF /BF	0.96%	÷0.845	×1.200	1.36%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 69).

Result: FIP 1.44 → 2.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 23 IPFIP 0.94 → 1.62 (+0.68)K% 33.3% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.770	25.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.150	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.19%	÷1.191	×1.250	1.25%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 138).

Result: FIP 0.94 → 1.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 19 IPFIP 3.57 → 4.05 (+0.48)K% 28.4% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.40%	—	×0.860	24.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.23%	—	×0.900	1.11%
HR / BF /BF	4.94%	÷1.039	×1.100	5.23%

Result: FIP 3.57 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 67 IPFIP 4.35 → 5.10 (+0.76)K% 21.5% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.53%	—	×0.770	16.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.65%	—	×1.150	4.20%
HR / BF /BF	4.74%	÷1.134	×1.250	5.23%

Result: FIP 4.35 → 5.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 39 IPFIP 0.90 → 1.88 (+0.97)K% 35.3% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.33%	—	×0.740	26.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.33%	—	×1.180	3.93%
HR / BF /BF	0.67%	÷0.976	×1.300	0.89%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 0.90 → 1.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zebby Matthews (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	22.7%	6.6%	4.0%	—	4.84	22.0%	15.1%	238	+0.24	—	—	—
James McDonald R 2012 · 4.18 FIP	27	SP	4.18	21.2%	8.8%	3.2%	.264	3.74	18.1%	4.3%	30	-0.44	2.99	506	74
Claudio Vargas R 2005 · 4.98 FIP	27	SP	4.98	16.2%	7.2%	4.3%	.285	4.61	16.6%	9.2%	339	-0.37	3.66	765	73
Jeff Niemann R 2010 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP	4.47	17.9%	7.5%	3.5%	.257	3.87	19.1%	12.5%	173	-0.60	2.96	544	72
Anthony DeSclafani R 2016 · 3.95 FIP	26	SP	3.95	20.6%	5.0%	3.6%	.285	4.19	23.3%	17.2%	282	+0.24	3.38	1,014	69
Alec Marsh R 2024 · 3.93 FIP	26	SP	3.93	23.4%	7.0%	3.5%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	424	69
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	68
Bud Norris R 2012 · 4.08 FIP	27	SP	4.08	22.5%	8.7%	3.2%	.295	3.91	19.4%	11.4%	425	-0.17	3.51	1,221	68
Jeremy Hefner R 2013 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP	4.33	17.8%	5.9%	3.6%	.277	4.64	16.8%	7.7%	98	+0.31	3.56	322	67
Ryne Nelson R 2024 · 3.62 FIP	26	SP	3.62	20.0%	5.1%	2.9%	.303	4.25	20.0%	13.5%	241	+0.63	3.62	828	67
Matt Andriese R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	27	SP	4.71	20.3%	7.2%	4.4%	.290	3.99	24.5%	17.5%	181	-0.72	3.08	744	67
Chad Patrick R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP	3.92	22.5%	6.3%	3.5%	.262	3.78	23.0%	14.2%	268	-0.14	3.69	570	67
Aaron Civale R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	27	SP	3.63	24.4%	5.4%	3.5%	.294	4.08	21.7%	14.5%	385	+0.45	3.33	1,207	67
Zach Plesac R 2022 · 4.30 FIP	27	SP	4.30	17.6%	6.7%	3.4%	.285	6.40	13.9%	5.5%	286	+2.10	3.27	965	66
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	66
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	65
Griffin Canning R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	27	SP	3.95	25.9%	6.5%	4.0%	.291	4.64	19.8%	9.8%	352	+0.69	3.60	809	65
Max Scherzer R 2011 · 4.17 FIP	27	SP	4.17	20.9%	6.6%	3.6%	.310	2.90	28.6%	21.6%	622	-1.27	2.13	3,078	64
Jay Witasick R 2000 · 4.76 FIP	27	SP-	4.76	17.4%	9.8%	3.4%	.318	3.20	24.2%	16.1%	193	-1.56	2.76	731	64
Chase Anderson R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	17.3%	5.9%	2.8%	.296	4.40	20.5%	12.5%	451	+0.48	3.30	1,260	64
Jimmy Nelson R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP	4.57	17.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.289	3.16	27.2%	18.6%	238	-1.41	1.32	720	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	83	22.5%	6.8%	1.65	5.03
Adam Morgan ('21)	1.8	62	20.8%	7.2%	1.58	4.80
Sam Gaviglio ('20)	1.5	99	19.1%	7.2%	1.67	4.88
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
John Boozer ('62-'69, -2 WAR*)	2.0	66	21.1%*	9.0%*	1.46*	5.15*
Pat Underwood ('79-'83, 1 WAR*)	1.7	115	20.9%*	6.3%*	1.57*	4.52*
Bob Heffner ('63-'68, 0 WAR*)	1.8	118	20.0%*	7.2%*	1.37*	5.07*