Chad Patrick — OGILVIE

Chad Patrick P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 217 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION101 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA3.78

FIP3.95

K%22.0%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6595.6

Whiff%

p5826.5%

p4521.5%

xwOBA vs

p510.311

CT+4.6 (43%)

SI (23%)

CU (8%)

SL (8%)

FB-2.4 (49%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	2	0	6	29	6	1	0	0%	2.8	20.7%	3.4%	17.2%	0.0%	4.76	1.79	—
2021	22	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	2	0	6	29	6	1	0	0%	2.8	20.7%	3.4%	17.2%	0.0%	4.76	1.51	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	10	46	193	54	17	3	77%	3.6	20.3%	9.9%	10.4%	2.2%	3.30	3.86	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	10	46	193	54	17	3	77%	3.6	28.0%	8.8%	19.2%	1.6%	3.30	2.71	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	124	561	129	52	20	96%	4.6	18.7%	9.7%	9.0%	4.4%	5.59	5.16	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	124	561	129	52	20	96%	4.6	18.7%	9.7%	9.0%	4.4%	5.59	5.16	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	124	561	129	52	20	96%	4.6	23.0%	9.3%	13.7%	3.6%	5.59	4.37	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	26	24	136	555	145	39	16	92%	5.2	21.7%	6.3%	15.4%	3.5%	2.90	3.98	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	26	24	136	555	145	39	16	92%	5.2	21.7%	6.3%	15.4%	3.5%	2.90	3.98	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	26	24	136	555	145	39	16	92%	5.2	26.1%	7.0%	19.1%	2.9%	2.90	3.36	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	31	162	683	172	56	21	89%	4.6	24.1%	8.0%	16.1%	3.0%	3.67	3.71	+2.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	31	162	683	172	56	21	89%	4.6	24.1%	8.0%	16.1%	3.0%	3.67	3.71	+2.3
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	31	162	683	172	56	21	89%	4.6	25.2%	8.2%	17.0%	3.1%	3.67	3.70	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			79	29	221	921	217	78	23	37%	2.8	23.6%	8.5%	15.1%	2.5%	3.38	3.55	+2.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	52	6	101	418	90	39	10	12%	1.9	21.5%	9.3%	12.2%	2.3%	3.20	3.71	+1.0
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	52	6	101	418	90	39	10	12%	1.9	21.5%	9.3%	12.2%	2.3%	3.20	3.71	+1.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	MIL	52	6	101	418	90	39	10	12%	1.9	21.5%	9.3%	12.2%	2.4%	3.20	3.78	+0.9
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	MIL	52	6	101	418	90	39	10	12%	1.9	21.5%	9.3%	12.2%	2.4%	3.20	3.78	+0.9
ROS	27	MLB MLE	MIL	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	22.0%	8.5%	13.4%	3.0%	3.78	3.95	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	MIL	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	22.0%	8.5%	13.4%	3.0%	3.78	3.95	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	107	443	95	41	11	—	—	21.6%	9.3%	12.3%	2.4%	3.23	3.73	+1.5
FULL	27	MLB A+C	MIL	—	—	107	453	95	41	11	—	—	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	2.4%	3.23	3.77	+1.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIL	114	0	120	505	111	44	15	0%	1.1	22.0%	8.6%	13.3%	2.9%	4.20	4.30	+0.4
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIL	109	0	114	483	103	43	15	0%	1.0	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	3.0%	4.36	4.46	+0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIL	102	0	107	453	94	42	15	0%	1.1	20.7%	9.2%	11.5%	3.2%	4.55	4.67	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIL	109	0	114	481	106	42	14	0%	1.0	22.0%	8.6%	13.3%	2.9%	4.20	4.30	+0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIL	104	0	109	460	98	41	14	0%	1.0	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	3.0%	4.36	4.46	+0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIL	97	0	102	431	89	39	14	0%	1.1	20.7%	9.2%	11.5%	3.2%	4.55	4.67	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		393	29	551	2315	515	202	65	7%	1.4	22.2%	8.7%	13.5%	2.8%	3.96	3.88	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		143	11	200	840	187	73	24	7%	1.4	22.2%	8.7%	13.5%	2.8%	3.96	3.88	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		155	97	576	2439	525	203	78	63%	3.7	21.5%	8.3%	13.2%	3.2%	3.80	4.09	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	34	200	847	182	70	27	63%	3.7	21.5%	8.3%	13.2%	3.2%	3.80	4.09	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chad Patrick (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.21	22.9%	7.5%	3.1%	—	4.47	21.4%	12.5%	341	+0.26	—	—	—
Adam Warren R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	27	SW	3.32	19.5%	7.1%	1.8%	.272	3.72	21.9%	14.4%	174	+0.40	2.72	392	78
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	78
J.P. France R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	27	SW	4.44	24.9%	10.9%	3.8%	.301	4.49	18.4%	8.8%	205	+0.05	4.04	577	76
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	76
Michael Bowden R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	28	SP-	3.21	17.3%	6.4%	1.4%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	141	76
Rafael Montero R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	22.0%	11.2%	2.2%	.339	3.41	28.7%	22.8%	47	-0.47	2.43	670	76
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	75
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	74
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	74
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	221	74
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	73
Mike Wright Jr. R 2017 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	19.5%	7.4%	2.6%	.298	3.96	19.5%	11.4%	172	+0.14	3.76	725	73
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	73
Heath Holder R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	26	SW	3.26	21.9%	7.5%	1.9%	.263	5.51	19.8%	4.9%	85	+2.25	2.94	367	72
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	205	72
TJ Shook R 2023 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	21.0%	9.6%	3.6%	.273	4.07	21.2%	12.4%	191	-0.44	3.35	451	72
Phil Klein R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	27	SW	3.10	24.5%	6.6%	2.2%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	178	71
Osvaldo Bido R 2023 · 3.70 FIP	27	SP-	3.70	20.2%	9.3%	2.1%	.293	4.70	20.6%	11.4%	227	+1.00	3.70	732	71
Logan Bawcom R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	27	SW	3.73	16.6%	9.2%	1.6%	.251	4.85	16.0%	6.7%	234	+1.12	3.73	399	71
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	115	21.7%	8.5%	1.18	4.28
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63
Alek Manoah ('24)	2.1	105	23.4%	9.0%	1.03	3.34