Chad Patrick
P
Milwaukee Brewers
+1.3
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 217 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.3 · 2026
ERA3.92
FIP4.17
xFIP5.51
SIERA5.51
K%23.9%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%15.6%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p2822.2%
K%
p1011.7%
xwOBA vs
p440.318
CT+4.6 (40%)
SI (21%)
CU (14%)
SL (14%)
FB-2.4 (45%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 2 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.76 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 13 | 10 | 46 | 193 | 54 | 17 | 3 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | 3.30 | 3.82 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 27 | 26 | 124 | 561 | 129 | 52 | 20 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 4.4% | 5.59 | 5.20 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 26 | 24 | 136 | 555 | 145 | 39 | 16 | 23.0% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 2.90 | 3.95 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 35 | 31 | 162 | 683 | 172 | 56 | 21 | 24.4% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 3.67 | 3.72 | +2.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 4 | 3 | 19 | 75 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 12.0% | 9.3% | 1.3% | 0.95 | 4.00 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIL | 17 | 17 | 92 | 390 | 78 | 33 | 11 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 3.68 | 4.04 | +1.2 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 111 | 465 | 87 | 40 | 12 | 18.8% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 3.22 | 4.04 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 19 | 104 | 439 | 89 | 37 | 13 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.44 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 17 | 17 | 94 | 399 | 79 | 34 | 12 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.52 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 15 | 15 | 85 | 360 | 69 | 31 | 11 | 19.2% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.61 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 14 | 14 | 76 | 323 | 67 | 26 | 10 | 20.6% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.45 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 58 | 24 | 9 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.56 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 49 | 21 | 8 | 19.3% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.69 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 54 | — | 54 | 226 | 42 | 19 | 8 | 18.6% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 35 | 17 | 7 | 17.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 4.89 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 30 | 16 | 6 | 17.1% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 5.04 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 107 | 94 | 493 | 2096 | 455 | 181 | 69 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 3.81 | 4.17 | +6.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 38 | 200 | 850 | 184 | 73 | 28 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 3.81 | 4.17 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chad Patrick (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.26 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 3.1% | — | 4.52 | 19.7% | 11.2% | 284 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 86 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 85 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 85 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 84 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 84 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 83 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.26 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.14 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | -0.12 | 3.32 | 493 | 83 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 83 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 82 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 81 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.95 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.69 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.74 | 3.69 | 283 | 81 |
| Tim Atherton R 2024 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 81 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 195 | 81 |
| Dallas Beeler R 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.45 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 1.2% | .301 | 7.35 | 10.0% | 1.5% | 11 | +3.90 | 3.45 | 122 | 81 |
| Jose Pina R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 80 |
| Luke Irvine R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 80 |
| Michael Bowden R 2027 · 3.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.20 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 141 | 80 |
| Sam Highfill R 2023 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 80 |
| Frank Batista R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 118 | 80 |
| Scott McGregor R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 107 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.727 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.3 | $10M | +$10M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.0 | $8M | +$7M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.4M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $8M | $29M | +$21M | ||