Chad Patrick
P
Milwaukee Brewers
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 217 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 46 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 91
ERA3.76
FIP3.97
K%21.6%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP46
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p5225.6%
K%
p3820.5%
xwOBA vs
p470.315
CT+4.6 (43%)
SI (22%)
CU (10%)
SL (10%)
FB-2.4 (47%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 2 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 2.8 | 20.7% | 3.4% | 17.2% | 0.0% | 4.76 | 1.79 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 2 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 2.8 | 20.7% | 3.4% | 17.2% | 0.0% | 4.76 | 1.51 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 10 | 46 | 193 | 54 | 17 | 3 | 77% | 3.6 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 2.3% | 3.30 | 3.92 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 10 | 46 | 193 | 54 | 17 | 3 | 77% | 3.6 | 28.0% | 8.8% | 19.2% | 1.6% | 3.30 | 2.71 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 26 | 124 | 561 | 129 | 52 | 20 | 96% | 4.6 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 4.6% | 5.59 | 5.29 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 26 | 124 | 561 | 129 | 52 | 20 | 96% | 4.6 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 3.6% | 5.59 | 4.37 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 26 | 24 | 136 | 555 | 145 | 39 | 16 | 92% | 5.2 | 23.0% | 7.4% | 15.6% | 3.9% | 2.90 | 4.22 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 26 | 24 | 136 | 555 | 145 | 39 | 16 | 92% | 5.2 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 19.1% | 2.9% | 2.90 | 3.36 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 31 | 162 | 683 | 172 | 56 | 21 | 89% | 4.6 | 24.4% | 8.3% | 16.1% | 3.0% | 3.67 | 3.76 | +3.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 31 | 162 | 683 | 172 | 56 | 21 | 89% | 4.6 | 25.2% | 8.2% | 17.0% | 3.1% | 3.67 | 3.70 | +3.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 29 | 6 | 73 | 297 | 61 | 25 | 8 | 21% | 2.5 | 20.5% | 8.4% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 3.56 | 3.91 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIL | 44 | 0 | 46 | 196 | 42 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 3.76 | 3.97 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIL | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 42 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 3.73 | 3.94 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 120 | 493 | 103 | 41 | 14 | — | — | 20.9% | 8.3% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 3.64 | 3.93 | +2.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 120 | 505 | 103 | 41 | 14 | — | — | 20.4% | 8.1% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 3.62 | 3.90 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 20 | 120 | 505 | 110 | 42 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 4.41 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 19 | 114 | 483 | 102 | 41 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.1% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 4.46 | 4.57 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 18 | 18 | 107 | 453 | 93 | 40 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 4.65 | 4.78 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 17 | 17 | 100 | 423 | 83 | 39 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 4.87 | 5.01 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 15 | 15 | 93 | 391 | 74 | 37 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.9% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 3.9% | 5.11 | 5.26 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 105 | 40 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 4.26 | 4.38 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 18 | 18 | 109 | 460 | 97 | 39 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.1% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.42 | 4.53 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 17 | 17 | 102 | 431 | 88 | 38 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.74 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 16 | 16 | 95 | 401 | 79 | 37 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 4.83 | 4.97 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 15 | 15 | 88 | 372 | 70 | 36 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.9% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 3.9% | 5.07 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 184 | 113 | 747 | 3139 | 669 | 270 | 100 | 61% | 4.1 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 4.28 | 4.13 | +11.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 30 | 200 | 840 | 179 | 72 | 27 | 61% | 4.1 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 4.28 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 132 | 97 | 548 | 2318 | 507 | 199 | 80 | 73% | 4.1 | 21.9% | 8.6% | 13.3% | 3.5% | 3.88 | 4.25 | +7.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 35 | 200 | 847 | 185 | 73 | 29 | 73% | 4.1 | 21.9% | 8.6% | 13.3% | 3.5% | 3.88 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chad Patrick (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 23.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | — | 4.58 | 21.1% | 12.6% | 341 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.52 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .286 | 4.03 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.51 | 3.52 | 248 | 79 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2029 · 3.37 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.37 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.49 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.12 | 3.37 | 205 | 77 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 76 |
| Michael Bowden R 2027 · 3.25 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.25 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 141 | 76 |
| Rafael Montero R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .339 | 3.46 | 28.7% | 22.8% | 47 | -0.39 | 2.38 | 663 | 76 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 75 |
| Brad Peacock R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 74 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 74 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 73 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.33 | 19.0% | 11.9% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.46 | 20.6% | 5.2% | 199 | +0.13 | 3.22 | 537 | 72 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 71 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.64 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 4.1% | .301 | 4.41 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 205 | -0.23 | 4.11 | 563 | 71 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .343 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | +0.40 | 3.26 | 493 | 71 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.00 | 19.5% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .298 | 3.98 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 172 | -0.02 | 3.73 | 725 | 71 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 71 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.31 | 19.5% | 7.1% | 1.7% | .272 | 3.73 | 21.9% | 14.4% | 174 | +0.42 | 2.71 | 392 | 71 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 70 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.59 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 302 | 70 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 70 |
| Nathan Wiles R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.34 | 19.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 399 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 109 | 21.0% | 8.7% | 1.33 | 4.55 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |