Chad Patrick

P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 217 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2027 ILForty Man (40M)

Overview

MLBRP40M40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AAAMIL	26	24	136	2.90	3.36	26.1%	7.0%	—	K 22.5% · BB 6.3% · FIP 3.92
2025	26	MIX2 levels	35	31	162	3.67	3.70	25.2%	8.2%	3.3	K 24.3% · BB 8.0% · FIP 3.69
2026	27	MLBMIL	57	6	106	3.40	3.97	21.1%	10.2%	0.7
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIL	11	11	72	4.06	4.24	22.4%	8.8%	1.0
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBMIL	9	9	59	4.26	4.40	21.8%	9.1%	0.7
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBMIL	7	7	43	4.47	4.61	21.1%	9.4%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo65

xwOBA vs44

K%42

Form4.05 ERA (proj 4.06) · K 18.3% (proj 22.4%) · BB 20.0% (proj 8.8%) ▼▼ last 60d · 13 IP through Oct 27

CompsDustin Nippert (age 28) · Joaquín Benoit (age 28) · Drew VerHagen (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.06

FIP4.24

K%22.4%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%13.6%

Proj IP72

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6595.6

Whiff%

p5526.1%

p4221.0%

xwOBA vs

p440.318

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	2	0	6	29	6	1	0	0%	2.8	20.7%	3.4%	17.2%	0.0%	4.76	1.79	—
2021	22	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	2	0	6	29	6	1	0	0%	2.8	20.7%	3.4%	17.2%	0.0%	4.76	1.51	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	10	46	193	54	17	3	77%	3.6	20.3%	9.9%	10.4%	2.2%	3.30	3.86	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	10	46	193	54	17	3	77%	3.6	28.0%	8.8%	19.2%	1.6%	3.30	2.71	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	124	561	129	52	20	96%	4.6	18.8%	9.7%	9.2%	4.4%	5.59	5.15	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	124	561	129	52	20	96%	4.6	23.0%	9.3%	13.7%	3.6%	5.59	4.37	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	26	24	136	555	145	39	16	92%	5.2	22.5%	6.3%	16.1%	3.5%	2.90	3.92	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	26	24	136	555	145	39	16	92%	5.2	22.5%	6.3%	16.1%	3.5%	2.90	3.92	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	26	24	136	555	145	39	16	92%	5.2	26.1%	7.0%	19.1%	2.9%	2.90	3.36	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	31	162	683	172	56	21	89%	4.6	24.3%	8.0%	16.3%	3.0%	3.67	3.69	+3.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	31	162	683	172	56	21	89%	4.6	24.3%	8.0%	16.3%	3.0%	3.67	3.69	+3.3
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	31	162	683	172	56	21	89%	4.6	25.2%	8.2%	17.0%	3.1%	3.67	3.70	+3.3
2026	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	57	6	106	441	93	45	11	11%	1.9	21.1%	10.2%	10.9%	2.4%	3.40	3.92	+0.8
2026	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	57	6	106	441	93	45	11	11%	1.9	21.1%	10.2%	10.9%	2.4%	3.40	3.92	+0.8
2026	27	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	57	6	106	441	93	45	11	11%	1.9	21.1%	10.2%	10.9%	2.5%	3.40	3.97	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			84	29	226	944	220	84	24	35%	2.7	23.3%	8.9%	14.4%	2.5%	3.47	3.65	+2.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIL	11	11	72	304	68	27	8	100%	6.5	22.4%	8.8%	13.6%	2.8%	4.06	4.24	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	62	263	57	24	8	100%	6.2	21.8%	9.1%	12.8%	2.9%	4.26	4.40	+0.7
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIL	7	7	46	193	41	18	6	100%	6.5	21.1%	9.4%	11.8%	3.1%	4.47	4.61	+0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	59	249	54	23	7	100%	6.6	21.8%	9.1%	12.8%	2.9%	4.26	4.40	+0.7
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	43	182	38	17	6	100%	6.1	21.1%	9.4%	11.8%	3.1%	4.47	4.61	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		100	45	328	1377	313	124	37	45%	3.3	22.7%	9.0%	13.8%	2.7%	3.74	3.80	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		61	27	200	839	191	76	23	45%	3.3	22.7%	9.0%	13.8%	2.7%	3.74	3.80	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		160	97	580	2462	534	209	79	61%	3.6	21.7%	8.5%	13.2%	3.2%	3.83	4.11	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	33	200	848	184	72	27	61%	3.6	21.7%	8.5%	13.2%	3.2%	3.83	4.11	+3.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAANashville Sounds · 42 IPFIP 4.62 → 4.78 (+0.15)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.44%	—	×0.900	8.50%
HR / BF /BF	4.44%	÷1.111	×1.100	4.40%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 122).

Result: FIP 4.62 → 4.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANashville Sounds · 136 IPFIP 3.37 → 3.92 (+0.55)K% 26.1% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.13%	—	×0.860	22.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.03%	—	×0.900	6.32%
HR / BF /BF	2.88%	÷0.909	×1.100	3.49%

Result: FIP 3.37 → 3.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAMidland RockHounds · 102 IPFIP 4.30 → 5.32 (+1.01)K% 23.3% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.32%	—	×0.810	18.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.52%	—	×1.100	9.37%
HR / BF /BF	3.81%	÷0.957	×1.200	4.78%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 4.30 → 5.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 22 IPFIP 4.24 → 4.49 (+0.25)K% 21.7% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.74%	—	×0.860	18.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.17%	—	×0.900	10.96%
HR / BF /BF	2.61%	÷0.996	×1.100	2.88%

Result: FIP 4.24 → 4.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Hillsboro Hops · 29 IPFIP 2.51 → 3.36 (+0.85)K% 24.6% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.59%	—	×0.770	18.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.20%	—	×1.150	9.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.82%	÷0.848	×1.250	1.21%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 2.51 → 3.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AVisalia Rawhide · 13 IPFIP 3.65 → 5.01 (+1.36)K% 31.5% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.48%	—	×0.740	23.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.26%	—	×1.180	10.93%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷1.062	×1.300	4.54%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 3.65 → 5.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AVisalia Rawhide · 6 IPFIP 1.79 → 2.32 (+0.53)K% 20.7% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.69%	—	×0.740	15.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.45%	—	×1.180	4.07%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.923	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.79 → 2.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chad Patrick (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.24	22.4%	8.8%	2.8%	—	4.49	21.5%	12.3%	108	+0.25	—	—	—
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	72
Joaquín Benoit R 2005 · 3.96 FIP	28	SW	3.96	21.1%	10.3%	2.4%	.246	3.39	24.2%	13.9%	207	-0.57	1.99	1,064	72
Drew VerHagen R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	28	SW	4.11	19.5%	7.3%	3.2%	.344	6.00	17.0%	4.7%	22	+1.89	2.80	487	71
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	67
Todd Wellemeyer R 2007 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	17.0%	10.8%	3.1%	.270	4.86	15.5%	6.4%	373	+0.12	3.35	615	67
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	66
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	66
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	66
Phil Klein R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	27	SW	3.10	24.5%	6.6%	2.2%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	197	66
Cory Lidle R 2000 · 4.32 FIP	28	SW	4.32	14.6%	6.1%	3.1%	.313	4.06	14.2%	8.7%	573	-0.26	3.48	1,318	65
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	65
Asher Wojciechowski R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SW	3.99	23.4%	6.5%	3.7%	.299	5.06	21.5%	13.1%	323	+1.07	3.15	678	65
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	65
Nate Karns R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	28	SP-	3.88	24.2%	10.6%	2.7%	.322	4.46	27.1%	20.7%	45	+0.58	3.88	299	64
Noah Davis R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	27	SW	3.88	18.5%	8.4%	2.3%	.368	5.10	18.3%	7.9%	183	+1.22	3.76	596	64
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	64
Seth Simmons R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	28	SW	4.27	18.1%	8.1%	3.0%	.262	6.20	13.3%	2.4%	54	+1.93	3.07	251	64
Kyle Snyder R 2006 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP-	4.47	19.9%	5.9%	4.2%	.373	4.83	16.9%	4.5%	54	+0.36	3.80	236	63
Jose A. Flores R 2017 · 3.09 FIP	28	SP-	3.09	20.1%	8.7%	1.1%	.297	4.77	13.7%	3.4%	57	+1.68	2.94	237	63
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	81	22.7%	9.1%	1.05	3.81
Adam Warren ('19)	2.5	70	20.8%	8.3%	1.02	3.53
Joe Beckwith ('79-'86, 3 WAR*)	2.1	70	24.9%*	8.2%*	1.13*	3.96*
Steve Foucault ('73-'78, 4 WAR*)	2.5	83	22.4%*	8.9%*	1.12*	3.63*
Archie Bradley ('23)	2.4	82	23.0%	9.5%	0.85	4.03
Luis Sanchez ('81-'85, 3 WAR*)	1.8	74	20.7%*	9.2%*	0.98*	3.97*
Carlos Torres ('19)	2.5	72	20.7%	8.9%	1.12	4.09