Archie Bradley
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 33
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION14 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.37
FIP4.43
xFIP5.24
SIERA4.50
K%22.6%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.3%
IP14
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
FB Velo
p3893.7
Whiff%
p1520.3%
K%
p3019.2%
xwOBA vs
p640.298
CH-2.6
FB-3.2
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 14 | 14 | 65 | 288 | 55 | 31 | 8 | 16.0% | 10.4% | 2.4% | 4.43 | 4.36 | +0.2 |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 33 | 33 | 182 | 795 | 190 | 77 | 16 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 1.9% | 4.34 | 3.44 | +4.2 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 63 | 0 | 73 | 290 | 79 | 19 | 4 | 27.2% | 6.6% | 1.3% | 1.73 | 2.35 | +2.1 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 76 | 0 | 72 | 296 | 75 | 19 | 9 | 25.3% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 3.64 | 3.37 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 66 | 1 | 72 | 317 | 87 | 34 | 5 | 27.4% | 10.7% | 1.5% | 3.52 | 2.97 | +1.5 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 16 | 0 | 18 | 73 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 24.7% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 2.95 | 2.25 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 55 | 0 | 53 | 233 | 41 | 22 | 5 | 17.9% | 9.4% | 2.2% | 3.74 | 3.96 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 26 | 0 | 25 | 104 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 19.2% | 7.7% | 1.3% | 4.26 | 3.18 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 21 | 1 | 37 | 164 | 29 | 14 | 7 | 16.6% | 10.4% | 4.7% | 6.03 | 5.58 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 14 | — | 14 | 60 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.74 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 370 | 49 | 598 | 2560 | 578 | 230 | 54 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.1% | 3.85 | 3.49 | +13.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 124 | 16 | 200 | 857 | 193 | 77 | 18 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.1% | 3.85 | 3.49 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Archie Bradley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 3.1% | — | 4.74 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 20 | +0.31 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 88 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.58 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .335 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -0.95 | 2.63 | 144 | 87 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 87 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 84 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 83 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 83 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 82 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 82 |
| Blake Wood R 2024 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 81 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 80 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.44 | 24.8% | 12.0% | 1.7% | .356 | 4.68 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 66 | +1.24 | 2.73 | 410 | 80 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.52 | 27.3% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 316 | 80 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 115 | 79 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.41 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.36 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +0.95 | 3.41 | 144 | 79 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 78 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 78 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 77 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.40 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .274 | 3.99 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.41 | 2.78 | 596 | 77 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.77 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 272 | 77 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.