Archie Bradley
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
+0.1
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
xFIP5.24
SIERA4.50
K%22.9%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.6%
IP20
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p3893.7
Whiff%
p1520.3%
K%
p3019.2%
xwOBA vs
p640.298
CH-2.6
FB-3.2
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 14 | 14 | 65 | 288 | 55 | 31 | 8 | 16.0% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 4.43 | 4.46 | +0.4 |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 33 | 33 | 182 | 795 | 190 | 77 | 16 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 1.9% | 4.34 | 3.40 | +3.9 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 63 | 0 | 73 | 290 | 79 | 19 | 4 | 27.2% | 6.6% | 1.3% | 1.73 | 2.35 | +2.2 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 76 | 0 | 72 | 296 | 75 | 19 | 9 | 25.3% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 3.64 | 3.52 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 66 | 1 | 72 | 317 | 87 | 34 | 5 | 27.4% | 10.7% | 1.6% | 3.52 | 3.04 | +1.6 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 16 | 0 | 18 | 73 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 24.7% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 2.95 | 2.22 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 55 | 0 | 53 | 233 | 41 | 22 | 5 | 17.9% | 9.4% | 2.2% | 3.74 | 3.98 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 26 | 0 | 25 | 104 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 19.2% | 7.7% | 1.2% | 4.26 | 3.09 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 21 | 1 | 37 | 164 | 29 | 14 | 7 | 16.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | 6.03 | 5.65 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 20 | — | 20 | 85 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 21.9% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 370 | 49 | 598 | 2560 | 578 | 230 | 56 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.2% | 3.85 | 3.52 | +12.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 124 | 16 | 200 | 857 | 193 | 77 | 19 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.2% | 3.85 | 3.52 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Archie Bradley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 3.1% | — | 4.57 | 21.9% | 12.4% | 20 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 92 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 87 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 83 |
| Josh Lueke R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 82 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.37 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .312 | 4.52 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +1.15 | 3.37 | 144 | 81 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 80 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 80 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 80 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.61 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .335 | 2.56 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -1.05 | 2.56 | 144 | 79 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.83 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .286 | 3.13 | 23.7% | 17.9% | 150 | -1.70 | 2.31 | 403 | 79 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.28 | 21.9% | 8.5% | 5.4% | .312 | 5.01 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 49 | -0.27 | 2.30 | 153 | 78 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 78 |
| Jake Petricka R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.57 | 19.1% | 8.0% | 3.8% | .340 | 3.19 | 18.3% | 10.4% | 24 | -1.38 | 3.04 | 252 | 78 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 78 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2024 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 77 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 76 |
| Jon Edwards R 2024 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 76 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.14 | 17.0% | 8.4% | 2.6% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 227 | 76 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 75 |
| Nate Jones R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .279 | 5.52 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 38 | +1.44 | 2.61 | 157 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.