Zach Plesac

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 32 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AAA

Overview

AAASP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	28	MIX2 levels	24	23	116	6.36	6.55	16.5%	9.1%	-1.4	K 14.6% · BB 8.3% · FIP 6.64
2024	29	MIX2 levels	21	20	112	5.96	5.60	14.4%	8.2%	-0.2	K 12.5% · BB 7.5% · FIP 6.10
2025	30	AAASTL	15	14	59	7.67	5.96	17.5%	11.6%	—	K 15.1% · BB 10.4% · FIP 6.52
2026	31	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	32	MLBSTL	1	1	6	5.26	5.64	14.1%	9.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ	33	MLBSTL	7	7	42	5.66	5.92	13.2%	9.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ	34	MLBSTL	6	6	33	6.00	6.23	12.3%	10.3%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

FB Velo10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsZack Segovia (age 32) · Juan Delgadillo (age 32) · Miguel Ruiz (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.26

FIP5.64

K%14.1%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%4.7%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.2

Whiff%

p1018.8%

p109.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.421

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	22	A MLE	Lake County Captains	6	6	25	102	19	6	2	100%	4.2	13.8%	6.9%	6.8%	2.3%	3.60	4.05	—
2017	22	A RAW	Lake County Captains	6	6	25	102	19	6	2	100%	4.2	18.6%	5.9%	12.7%	2.0%	3.60	3.34	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	145	597	132	37	9	100%	5.6	17.2%	7.1%	10.1%	2.0%	3.79	3.63	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	145	597	132	37	9	100%	5.6	22.1%	6.2%	15.9%	1.5%	3.79	2.85	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	31	179	713	153	49	21	100%	5.8	20.0%	7.0%	13.1%	3.0%	3.06	3.93	+3.2
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	31	179	713	153	49	21	100%	5.8	21.5%	6.9%	14.6%	2.9%	3.06	3.74	+3.6
2020	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	8	8	55	206	57	6	8	100%	6.9	27.7%	2.9%	24.8%	3.9%	2.28	3.27	+1.5
2020	25	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	8	8	55	206	57	6	8	100%	6.9	27.7%	2.9%	24.8%	3.9%	2.28	3.24	+1.5
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	147	618	106	35	24	100%	5.5	16.7%	5.5%	11.2%	3.9%	4.70	4.50	+1.5
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	147	618	106	35	24	100%	5.5	17.2%	5.7%	11.5%	3.9%	4.70	4.49	+1.6
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	137	585	105	38	19	96%	5.3	17.6%	6.7%	10.9%	3.4%	4.15	4.30	+1.8
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	137	585	105	38	19	96%	5.3	17.9%	6.5%	11.5%	3.2%	4.15	4.20	+1.9
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	116	514	85	47	33	96%	4.8	14.6%	8.3%	6.3%	6.8%	6.36	6.64	-1.6
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	116	514	85	47	33	96%	4.8	16.5%	9.1%	7.4%	6.4%	6.36	6.55	-1.4
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	112	487	70	40	23	95%	5.3	12.5%	7.5%	5.0%	5.6%	5.96	6.10	-0.8
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	112	487	70	40	23	95%	5.3	12.5%	7.5%	5.0%	5.6%	5.96	6.10	-0.8
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	112	487	70	40	23	95%	5.3	14.4%	8.2%	6.2%	4.7%	5.96	5.60	-0.2
2025	30	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	15	14	59	268	47	31	13	93%	3.9	15.1%	10.4%	4.7%	6.1%	7.67	6.52	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	15	14	59	268	47	31	13	93%	3.9	15.1%	10.4%	4.7%	6.1%	7.67	6.52	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	15	14	59	268	47	31	13	93%	3.9	17.5%	11.6%	6.0%	4.9%	7.67	5.96	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			87	86	479	2006	364	129	76	99%	5.5	18.1%	6.4%	11.7%	3.8%	4.31	4.45	+5.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	STL	1	1	6	25	4	2	1	100%	6.0	14.1%	9.4%	4.7%	3.9%	5.26	5.64	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	STL	7	7	42	177	23	17	7	100%	6.0	13.2%	9.8%	3.4%	4.2%	5.66	5.92	-0.2
2029	34	MLB MLE	STL	6	6	33	139	17	14	6	100%	5.5	12.3%	10.3%	2.0%	4.5%	6.00	6.23	-0.3
2030	35	MLB MLE	STL	5	5	28	116	13	13	6	100%	5.5	11.3%	10.9%	0.5%	4.8%	6.34	6.56	-0.3
2028	33	MLB CTX	STL	7	7	42	177	23	17	7	100%	6.0	13.2%	9.8%	3.4%	4.2%	5.66	5.92	-0.2
2029	34	MLB CTX	STL	6	6	33	139	17	14	6	100%	5.5	12.3%	10.3%	2.0%	4.5%	6.00	6.23	-0.3
2030	35	MLB CTX	STL	5	5	28	118	13	13	6	100%	5.6	11.3%	10.9%	0.5%	4.8%	6.34	6.56	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		104	103	581	2438	418	173	95	99%	5.6	17.1%	7.1%	10.0%	3.9%	4.60	4.70	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	35	200	839	144	60	33	99%	5.6	17.1%	7.1%	10.0%	3.9%	4.60	4.70	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		184	180	975	4090	699	286	166	98%	5.3	17.1%	7.0%	10.1%	4.0%	4.54	4.76	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	37	200	839	143	59	34	98%	5.3	17.1%	7.0%	10.1%	4.0%	4.54	4.76	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 59 IPFIP 5.75 → 6.52 (+0.77)K% 17.5% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.54%	—	×0.860	15.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.57%	—	×0.900	10.41%
HR / BF /BF	4.85%	÷0.869	×1.100	6.14%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 5.75 → 6.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASalt Lake Bees · 100 IPFIP 5.21 → 5.87 (+0.66)K% 15.0% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.01%	—	×0.860	12.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.62%	—	×0.900	6.86%
HR / BF /BF	4.39%	÷0.886	×1.100	5.45%

Result: FIP 5.21 → 5.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAColumbus Clippers · 95 IPFIP 6.96 → 7.28 (+0.32)K% 17.4% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.36%	—	×0.860	14.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.27%	—	×0.900	9.24%
HR / BF /BF	7.33%	÷1.037	×1.100	7.78%

Result: FIP 6.96 → 7.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAkron RubberDucks · 5 IPFIP 4.58 → 6.13 (+1.55)K% 30.0% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.810	24.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.100	11.00%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷0.893	×1.200	6.72%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 79).

Result: FIP 4.58 → 6.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAkron RubberDucks · 37 IPFIP 1.56 → 2.01 (+0.45)K% 24.8% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.82%	—	×0.810	20.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.38%	—	×1.100	4.82%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.863	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.56 → 2.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAColumbus Clippers · 26 IPFIP 1.97 → 2.43 (+0.46)K% 30.7% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.69%	—	×0.880	27.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.97%	—	×1.050	3.12%
HR / BF /BF	1.98%	÷0.985	×1.100	2.21%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 1.97 → 2.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Lynchburg Hillcats · 123 IPFIP 2.94 → 3.74 (+0.80)K% 21.8% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.76%	—	×0.770	16.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.47%	—	×1.150	7.44%
HR / BF /BF	1.57%	÷0.967	×1.250	2.03%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 2.94 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAkron RubberDucks · 22 IPFIP 2.27 → 2.99 (+0.72)K% 24.1% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.14%	—	×0.810	19.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.60%	—	×1.100	5.06%
HR / BF /BF	1.15%	÷0.840	×1.200	1.64%

Result: FIP 2.27 → 2.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Plesac (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.9%	—	6.19	12.4%	2.1%	102	+0.55	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	82
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	78
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	74
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	73
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	72
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	72
Jason Simontacchi R 2007 · 4.96 FIP	33	SP	4.96	13.0%	5.9%	4.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	356	70
J.D. Martin R 2016 · 4.85 FIP	33	SP	4.85	9.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.302	5.42	12.2%	-0.2%	249	+0.57	4.79	414	69
Scott Carroll R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	32	SP	5.71	14.4%	8.6%	5.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	377	68
Cody Mincey R 2022 · 5.56 FIP	30	SP	5.56	13.9%	8.4%	4.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	147	68
Matt Buschmann R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	277	67
Justin Lehr R 2009 · 6.01 FIP	31	SP	6.01	11.5%	9.4%	4.9%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	148	67
Marco Carrillo R 2019 · 6.08 FIP	32	SP	6.08	9.9%	9.1%	4.9%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	5.33	194	67
Daniel Guerrero R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	32	SP	4.61	10.2%	9.0%	2.2%	.328	5.59	14.7%	3.6%	57	+0.98	4.61	269	67
Francisco Cordova R 2016 · 4.59 FIP	32	SP	4.59	7.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	115	66
Mitch Atkins R 2017 · 4.77 FIP	31	SP	4.77	14.3%	8.1%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	215	66
Mario Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	30	SP	4.53	14.1%	5.0%	3.6%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	368	66
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	66
Elih Villanueva R 2017 · 5.48 FIP	31	SP	5.48	14.1%	6.0%	5.1%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	225	65
Jeremy Hefner R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	16.8%	9.1%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	322	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	71	16.8%	7.4%	1.52	4.66
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38
Amaury Telemaco ('05)	2.8	70	15.0%	8.0%	1.48	4.94
Mark Grant ('84-'93, 0 WAR*)	3.2	91	18.0%*	8.5%*	1.41*	4.84*
Jim Willoughby ('71-'78, 4 WAR*)	2.8	79	16.0%*	6.2%*	1.42*	4.13*
Jerry Garvin ('77-'82, 4 WAR*)	3.0	101	19.3%*	8.4%*	1.44*	4.52*