Aaron Civale — OGILVIE

Aaron Civale P Chicago Cubs

Age 31 RHP 6'1" / 245 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION107 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.08

FIP4.32

K%19.5%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%12.6%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 119 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.5

Whiff%

p1920.9%

p2919.1%

xwOBA vs

p410.322

CT+0.8 (37%)

SI (17%)

CU (25%)

SL-1.1 (3%)

FB-2.2 (28%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.337 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.5M	+0.1	$0.2M	-$0.3M
Totals		$0.5M		$0.2M	-$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	165	654	141	14	13	100%	6.1	16.4%	2.5%	13.9%	2.7%	3.28	3.51	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	165	654	141	14	13	100%	6.1	21.6%	2.1%	19.4%	2.0%	3.28	2.67	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	21	21	106	447	78	21	12	100%	5.1	14.1%	5.2%	9.0%	3.8%	3.89	4.67	—
2018	23	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	21	21	106	447	78	21	12	100%	5.1	17.4%	4.7%	12.8%	2.7%	3.89	3.69	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	130	524	116	31	11	100%	5.7	20.2%	6.1%	14.1%	2.4%	2.35	3.49	+2.2
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	23	130	524	116	31	11	100%	5.7	22.1%	5.9%	16.2%	2.1%	2.35	3.13	+2.9
2020	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	12	12	74	312	69	16	11	100%	6.2	22.1%	5.1%	17.0%	3.5%	4.74	3.82	+1.0
2020	25	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	12	12	74	312	69	16	11	100%	6.2	22.1%	5.1%	17.0%	3.5%	4.74	3.82	+1.0
2021	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	136	541	111	34	23	100%	5.7	19.9%	6.2%	13.7%	4.6%	3.58	4.75	+0.2
2021	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	136	541	111	34	23	100%	5.7	20.5%	6.3%	14.2%	4.3%	3.58	4.42	+0.8
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	110	467	116	25	16	100%	4.6	24.4%	5.4%	19.0%	3.5%	4.89	3.63	+1.7
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	110	467	116	25	16	100%	4.6	24.8%	5.4%	19.5%	3.4%	4.89	3.56	+1.8
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	133	551	132	37	14	100%	5.1	23.0%	6.5%	16.5%	2.4%	3.58	3.33	+2.6
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	133	551	132	37	14	100%	5.1	23.0%	6.5%	16.5%	2.4%	3.58	3.33	+2.6
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	133	551	132	37	14	100%	5.1	24.0%	6.7%	17.2%	2.5%	3.58	3.32	+2.6
2024	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	31	31	161	689	149	52	29	100%	5.2	21.6%	7.5%	14.1%	4.0%	4.36	4.43	+0.9
2024	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	31	31	161	689	149	52	29	100%	5.2	21.6%	7.5%	14.1%	4.0%	4.36	4.43	+0.9
2024	29	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	31	31	161	689	149	52	29	100%	5.2	21.6%	7.5%	14.1%	4.2%	4.36	4.56	+0.6
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	111	465	93	34	16	80%	4.4	20.2%	7.4%	12.9%	3.8%	4.46	4.42	+0.6
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	111	465	93	34	16	80%	4.4	20.2%	7.4%	12.9%	3.8%	4.46	4.42	+0.6
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	20	111	465	93	34	16	80%	4.4	20.0%	7.3%	12.7%	3.4%	4.46	4.22	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			169	150	841	3528	752	230	126	89%	5.0	21.3%	6.5%	14.8%	3.6%	4.16	4.08	+8.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	30	16	107	469	94	29	17	53%	3.6	19.1%	6.4%	12.7%	3.9%	4.11	4.42	+0.6
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	30	16	107	469	94	29	17	53%	3.6	19.1%	6.4%	12.7%	3.9%	4.11	4.42	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	CHC	1	1	4	13	7	0	0	100%	4.3	53.8%	0.0%	53.8%	0.0%	0.00	-1.45	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	CHC	29	15	103	456	87	29	17	52%	3.6	19.1%	6.4%	12.7%	3.7%	4.28	4.34	+0.7
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	CHC	29	15	103	456	87	29	17	52%	3.6	19.1%	6.4%	12.7%	3.7%	4.28	4.34	+0.7
ROS	31	MLB MLE	CHC	2	2	11	48	9	3	2	100%	5.7	19.5%	6.8%	12.6%	3.6%	4.08	4.32	+0.1
ROS	31	MLB CTX	CHC	2	2	11	46	9	3	2	100%	5.5	19.5%	6.8%	12.6%	3.5%	4.00	4.24	+0.1
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	119	517	103	32	19	—	—	20.0%	6.2%	13.7%	3.6%	4.11	4.41	+0.7
FULL	31	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	114	483	103	32	19	—	—	21.4%	6.7%	14.7%	3.9%	4.25	4.26	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	CHC	21	21	125	527	99	38	21	100%	5.9	18.8%	7.2%	11.5%	3.9%	4.75	4.95	-0.1
2028	33	MLB MLE	CHC	19	19	114	483	87	37	20	100%	6.0	17.9%	7.7%	10.2%	4.2%	5.04	5.23	-0.4
2027	32	MLB CTX	CHC	21	21	125	528	99	38	20	100%	6.0	18.8%	7.2%	11.5%	3.8%	4.67	4.87	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	CHC	19	19	114	481	86	37	19	100%	6.0	17.9%	7.7%	10.2%	4.0%	4.95	5.14	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		211	192	1092	4585	947	308	167	91%	5.2	20.6%	6.7%	13.9%	3.6%	4.30	4.21	+8.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	35	200	840	173	56	31	91%	5.2	20.6%	6.7%	13.9%	3.6%	4.30	4.21	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		243	224	1234	5119	1026	298	177	92%	5.1	20.0%	5.8%	14.2%	3.5%	3.85	4.04	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	36	200	830	166	48	29	92%	5.1	20.0%	5.8%	14.2%	3.5%	3.85	4.04	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Civale (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	20.3%	7.4%	3.6%	—	5.08	18.4%	10.9%	239	+0.41	—	—	—
Yovani Gallardo R 2017 · 5.31 FIP	31	SP-	5.31	16.3%	9.9%	4.3%	.283	4.33	14.9%	5.3%	144	-0.98	3.90	577	74
Chase Anderson R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	31	SP	4.39	20.9%	8.1%	3.7%	.259	5.39	19.2%	10.0%	218	+1.00	3.30	1,146	74
Félix Hernández R 2017 · 4.56 FIP	31	SP	4.56	22.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.278	5.08	18.0%	9.7%	227	+0.52	3.60	682	70
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	68
Jeremy Hellickson R 2018 · 3.90 FIP	31	SP	3.90	17.6%	5.1%	3.0%	.244	4.93	17.8%	9.3%	56	+1.03	3.74	646	67
Iván Nova R 2018 · 4.52 FIP	31	SP	4.52	16.7%	4.5%	4.1%	.283	4.78	13.7%	7.6%	206	+0.26	4.03	810	65
Tanner Roark R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	19.2%	6.2%	3.2%	.289	4.57	21.1%	13.1%	259	+0.58	3.13	942	64
Tyson Ross R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	19.2%	9.1%	2.9%	.263	5.68	15.4%	4.3%	35	+1.46	2.76	449	64
Andrew Cashner R 2018 · 4.85 FIP	31	SP	4.85	14.5%	9.1%	3.3%	.307	4.50	17.0%	7.9%	150	-0.35	3.64	786	64
Jake Arrieta R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	31	SP	3.94	23.1%	7.4%	3.4%	.271	4.17	18.6%	10.5%	353	+0.23	2.13	1,046	64
Mike Fiers R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	18.5%	5.8%	3.7%	.308	4.96	19.2%	12.2%	510	+0.66	3.86	918	63
Jhoulys Chacín R 2019 · 5.49 FIP	31	SP	5.49	21.5%	9.6%	5.5%	.301	4.41	17.2%	7.2%	112	-1.08	3.71	887	63
Phil Hughes R 2017 · 5.04 FIP	31	SP-	5.04	15.6%	4.5%	4.9%	.328	5.95	21.1%	15.2%	33	+0.91	4.62	301	63
Dillon Gee R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	31	SP-	3.85	18.0%	5.9%	2.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	380	62
Jordan Zimmermann R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	31	SP	4.96	14.4%	5.9%	4.2%	.325	4.70	18.3%	13.6%	243	-0.26	3.57	731	62
Matt Cain R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	31	SP-	4.95	18.1%	7.8%	4.4%	.313	4.82	13.2%	5.6%	124	-0.13	4.82	294	62
Johnny Cueto R 2017 · 4.34 FIP	31	SP	4.34	21.0%	7.9%	3.7%	.314	4.70	19.1%	10.6%	132	+0.36	2.85	1,148	61
Kyle Gibson R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	31	SP	3.97	22.7%	7.9%	3.2%	.325	3.91	20.2%	12.4%	417	-0.06	3.56	1,689	60
Garrett Richards R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	30	SP	3.99	26.9%	10.5%	3.3%	.276	4.36	19.4%	10.3%	188	+0.37	2.31	577	60
Kenta Maeda R 2019 · 3.68 FIP	31	SP-	3.68	27.1%	8.0%	3.4%	.240	3.44	27.8%	22.0%	173	-0.24	2.87	1,092	60

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	125	19.1%	7.4%	1.50	4.72
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56