Aaron Civale
P
Athletics
Age 31
RHP
6'1" / 245 lbs
MLB
peak 1.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION79 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.40
FIP4.65
K%18.3%
BB%7.0%
K-BB%11.3%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.3
Whiff%
p1220.0%
K%
p1417.0%
xwOBA vs
p200.347
CT+0.8 (35%)
SI (19%)
CU (25%)
SL-1.1 (3%)
FB-2.2 (31%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 165 | 654 | 141 | 14 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.4% | 2.5% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 3.28 | 3.64 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 165 | 654 | 141 | 14 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.6% | 2.1% | 19.4% | 2.0% | 3.28 | 2.67 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 21 | 21 | 106 | 447 | 78 | 21 | 12 | 100% | 5.1 | 14.1% | 5.2% | 9.0% | 4.7% | 3.89 | 5.17 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 21 | 21 | 106 | 447 | 78 | 21 | 12 | 100% | 5.1 | 17.4% | 4.7% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 3.89 | 3.69 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 23 | 130 | 524 | 116 | 31 | 11 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.2% | 6.1% | 14.1% | 2.6% | 2.35 | 3.58 | +2.8 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 23 | 130 | 524 | 116 | 31 | 11 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.1% | 5.9% | 16.2% | 2.1% | 2.35 | 3.13 | +3.5 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 12 | 12 | 74 | 312 | 69 | 16 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.1% | 5.1% | 17.0% | 3.5% | 4.74 | 3.83 | +0.9 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 12 | 12 | 74 | 312 | 69 | 16 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.1% | 5.1% | 17.0% | 3.5% | 4.74 | 3.82 | +0.9 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 24 | 136 | 541 | 111 | 34 | 23 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.9% | 6.2% | 13.7% | 4.6% | 3.58 | 4.76 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 24 | 136 | 541 | 111 | 34 | 23 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.5% | 6.3% | 14.2% | 4.3% | 3.58 | 4.42 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 110 | 467 | 116 | 25 | 16 | 100% | 4.6 | 24.4% | 5.4% | 19.0% | 3.5% | 4.89 | 3.64 | +2.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 110 | 467 | 116 | 25 | 16 | 100% | 4.6 | 24.8% | 5.4% | 19.5% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 3.56 | +2.4 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 133 | 551 | 132 | 37 | 14 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.0% | 6.5% | 16.5% | 2.5% | 3.58 | 3.37 | +3.2 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 133 | 551 | 132 | 37 | 14 | 100% | 5.1 | 24.0% | 6.7% | 17.2% | 2.5% | 3.58 | 3.32 | +3.2 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 31 | 31 | 161 | 689 | 149 | 52 | 29 | 100% | 5.2 | 21.6% | 7.5% | 14.1% | 4.4% | 4.36 | 4.64 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 31 | 31 | 161 | 689 | 149 | 52 | 29 | 100% | 5.2 | 21.6% | 7.5% | 14.1% | 4.2% | 4.36 | 4.56 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 20 | 111 | 465 | 93 | 34 | 16 | 80% | 4.4 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 12.9% | 3.6% | 4.46 | 4.29 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 20 | 111 | 465 | 93 | 34 | 16 | 80% | 4.4 | 20.0% | 7.3% | 12.7% | 3.4% | 4.46 | 4.22 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Athletics | 17 | 16 | 79 | 354 | 65 | 22 | 16 | 94% | 4.6 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 10.6% | 4.7% | 5.13 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | OAK | 10 | 10 | 60 | 254 | 46 | 18 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.3% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 4.40 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | OAK | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 46 | 18 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.3% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 4.40 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 139 | 608 | 111 | 40 | 26 | — | — | 18.3% | 6.5% | 11.8% | 4.3% | 4.81 | 4.88 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 135 | 569 | 111 | 40 | 26 | — | — | 19.6% | 7.0% | 12.6% | 4.6% | 4.97 | 4.86 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 21 | 21 | 125 | 527 | 93 | 39 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 4.3% | 5.07 | 5.27 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 19 | 19 | 114 | 483 | 82 | 38 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 4.6% | 5.36 | 5.55 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 94 | 39 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 4.3% | 5.07 | 5.27 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 81 | 37 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 4.6% | 5.36 | 5.55 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 208 | 202 | 1112 | 4676 | 944 | 317 | 180 | 97% | 5.3 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 13.4% | 3.8% | 4.47 | 4.37 | +13.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 36 | 200 | 841 | 170 | 57 | 32 | 97% | 5.3 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 13.4% | 3.8% | 4.47 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 230 | 224 | 1206 | 5004 | 997 | 291 | 184 | 97% | 5.2 | 19.9% | 5.8% | 14.1% | 3.7% | 3.91 | 4.17 | +17.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 37 | 200 | 830 | 165 | 48 | 30 | 97% | 5.2 | 19.9% | 5.8% | 14.1% | 3.7% | 3.91 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aaron Civale (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.69 | 20.3% | 7.4% | 3.6% | — | 5.40 | 17.3% | 9.8% | 239 | +0.71 | — | — | — |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2027 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 56 |
| Miguel González R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.59 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 325 | -0.34 | 3.73 | 469 | 55 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.96 | 18.1% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .313 | 4.83 | 13.2% | 5.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 4.83 | 294 | 54 |
| Jake Peavy R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.09 | 17.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | .278 | 4.36 | 19.6% | 12.9% | 119 | +0.27 | 4.09 | 262 | 54 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.65 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 262 | 53 |
| Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.78 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .315 | 4.45 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 216 | -0.33 | 4.12 | 365 | 53 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.57 | 22.8% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .266 | 4.61 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 90 | +0.04 | 3.61 | 605 | 53 |
| Scott Feldman R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.18 | 13.5% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .291 | 4.35 | 18.4% | 12.4% | 188 | +0.17 | 3.92 | 297 | 53 |
| Charlie Morton R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.55 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .302 | 3.11 | 27.7% | 18.9% | 331 | -0.44 | 2.55 | 1,534 | 52 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.37 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 4.4% | .283 | 4.35 | 14.9% | 5.3% | 144 | -1.02 | 3.91 | 577 | 52 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2028 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.79 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .270 | 4.53 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.74 | 3.79 | 264 | 52 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.92 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .282 | 4.71 | 12.8% | 4.4% | 142 | +0.79 | 3.92 | 277 | 52 |
| Leo Medrano R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.74 | 14.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | .354 | 4.34 | 11.0% | 3.7% | 113 | +0.60 | 3.74 | 222 | 52 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.70 | 13.7% | 5.6% | 1.9% | .281 | 5.05 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 59 | +1.35 | 3.70 | 162 | 51 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 51 |
| Manuel Flores R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.55 | 15.8% | 4.7% | 2.1% | .305 | 4.08 | 17.1% | 9.7% | 122 | +0.53 | 3.55 | 515 | 51 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.29 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 125 | 51 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.99 | 13.3% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 500 | 51 |
| Tyler Herron R 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.17 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 117 | 51 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.32 | 11.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | .293 | 3.59 | 10.8% | 5.2% | 216 | -0.73 | 3.18 | 450 | 51 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 125 | 18.4% | 7.5% | 1.60 | 4.93 |
| Ricky Nolasco ('17) | 3 | 139 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 1.38 | 4.85 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Jeremy Hellickson ('19) | 5 | 126 | 17.5% | 6.6% | 1.44 | 4.49 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |