Aaron Civale — OGILVIE

Aaron Civale P Athletics

+0.8 WAR

Age 31 RHP 6'1" / 245 lbs MLB peak 0.8 · 2026

ERA4.41

FIP4.54

xFIP4.43

SIERA4.31

K%21.3%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%13.7%

IP127

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2026

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4545

FB Velo

p1091.4

Whiff%

p2221.4%

p2718.8%

xwOBA vs

p390.324

CT+0.8 (33%)

SI (20%)

CU (22%)

SL-1.1 (4%)

FB-2.2 (32%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2017	22	A+	Lynchburg Hillcats	27	27	165	654	141	14	13	16.4%	2.5%	2.8%	3.28	3.57	+3.2
2018	23	AA	Akron RubberDucks	21	21	106	447	78	21	12	14.1%	5.2%	3.9%	3.89	4.69	+0.7
2019	24	MLB	Cleveland Indians	23	23	130	524	116	31	11	20.2%	6.1%	2.4%	2.35	3.49	+2.7
2020	25	MLB	Cleveland Indians	12	12	74	312	69	16	11	22.1%	5.1%	3.6%	4.74	3.84	+1.0
2021	26	MLB	Cleveland Indians	24	24	136	541	111	34	23	19.9%	6.2%	4.4%	3.58	4.63	+1.0
2022	27	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	24	24	110	467	116	25	16	24.4%	5.4%	3.9%	4.89	3.84	+1.8
2023	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	26	26	133	551	132	37	14	23.0%	6.5%	2.3%	3.58	3.23	+3.1
2024	29	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	31	31	161	689	149	52	29	21.6%	7.5%	3.6%	4.36	4.23	+2.0
2025	30	MLB	Chicago Cubs	25	20	111	465	93	34	16	20.2%	7.4%	3.8%	4.46	4.42	+1.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	MLB	Athletics	3	3	16	62	12	5	2	19.4%	8.1%	3.2%	1.72	4.26	+0.1
ROS	31	MLB	OAK	19	19	103	434	85	33	15	19.7%	7.6%	3.4%	4.01	4.29	+1.2
2026 Total	31	MLB	OAK	—	—	118	496	97	38	17	19.6%	7.7%	3.4%	3.71	4.29	+1.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	32	MLB	OAK	19	19	106	446	85	35	16	19.1%	7.8%	3.5%	4.63	4.79	+0.6
2028	33	MLB	OAK	17	17	94	396	73	32	14	18.4%	8.0%	3.6%	4.80	4.91	+0.4
2029	34	MLB	OAK	15	15	83	350	62	29	13	17.7%	8.2%	3.7%	4.95	5.05	+0.1
2030	35	MLB	OAK	13	13	73	307	58	23	12	19.0%	7.6%	3.8%	4.94	4.93	+0.1
2031	36	MLB	OAK	12	12	63	267	49	21	11	18.2%	7.8%	3.9%	5.03	5.10	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			216	211	1142	4712	948	274	159	20.1%	5.8%	3.4%	3.80	3.98	+17.1
/ 200 IP	—			38	37	200	825	166	48	28	20.1%	5.8%	3.4%	3.80	3.98	+3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Civale (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	19.8%	7.6%	3.5%	—	4.91	18.4%	10.5%	283	+0.24	—	—	—
Juan Delgadillo R 2027 · 4.56 FIP	32	SP-	4.56	15.5%	7.2%	3.4%	.316	4.46	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.10	4.46	143	57
Jason Berken R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	31	SP-	4.36	13.5%	6.6%	2.9%	.315	4.51	11.5%	3.2%	106	+0.15	4.36	219	57
Scott Feldman R 2027 · 4.16 FIP	32	SP-	4.16	13.5%	5.8%	2.7%	.291	4.32	18.4%	12.4%	188	+0.16	3.98	297	56
Jerome Williams R 2028 · 4.66 FIP	33	SP-	4.66	13.4%	5.6%	3.6%	.326	5.79	11.7%	5.6%	74	+1.13	4.66	195	56
Matt Cain R 2026 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	18.1%	7.8%	4.5%	.313	5.07	13.2%	5.6%	124	+0.07	4.87	294	56
Guillermo Moscoso R 2028 · 3.77 FIP	33	SP-	3.77	14.5%	6.9%	1.8%	.270	4.63	14.9%	7.5%	176	+0.86	3.77	264	55
Mitch Talbot R 2029 · 3.81 FIP	34	SP-	3.81	13.7%	5.6%	2.1%	.281	5.01	13.2%	8.9%	59	+1.20	3.81	162	55
Yohan Pino R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	31	SP-	4.10	17.8%	5.8%	3.2%	.312	5.35	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.25	4.10	133	55
Scott McGregor R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	28	SP-	4.41	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	107	55
Edgar Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	11.0%	4.7%	2.8%	.293	3.62	10.8%	5.2%	216	-0.68	3.19	450	55
Josh Roenicke R 2027 · 4.89 FIP	32	SP-	4.89	10.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.353	3.35	19.2%	11.5%	160	-1.54	3.27	283	55
Cesar Carrillo R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	31	SP-	4.16	13.8%	9.7%	1.8%	.307	4.46	12.6%	2.6%	145	+0.30	4.16	325	54
Roberto Hernandez R 2029 · 4.25 FIP	34	SP-	4.25	11.8%	6.7%	2.4%	.287	4.35	13.8%	6.8%	86	+0.10	4.25	171	54
Frankie De La Cruz R 2028 · 3.74 FIP	33	SP-	3.74	15.2%	8.0%	1.7%	.262	4.37	16.2%	8.2%	114	+0.63	3.74	240	54
Ervin Santana R 2027 · 4.00 FIP	32	SP-	4.00	17.1%	7.1%	2.6%	.273	4.12	19.2%	12.4%	417	+0.12	3.75	720	54
Dillon Gee R 2026 · 3.80 FIP	31	SP-	3.80	18.0%	5.9%	2.7%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	380	54
Scott Carroll R 2026 · 4.96 FIP	31	SP-	4.96	10.5%	8.6%	3.0%	.289	5.63	14.4%	5.8%	22	+0.67	3.96	248	54
Felipe Paulino R 2026 · 4.52 FIP	31	SP-	4.52	15.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.312	4.86	15.0%	4.8%	26	+0.34	4.52	150	54
Sam LeCure R 2026 · 4.41 FIP	31	SP-	4.41	15.6%	8.8%	2.8%	.283	4.16	16.6%	10.1%	91	-0.25	4.16	171	54
Jonathan Castellanos R 2028 · 3.64 FIP	33	SP-	3.64	12.2%	6.5%	1.4%	.313	4.15	11.8%	3.5%	216	+0.51	3.41	394	54

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.