Aaron Civale

P Chicago Cubs

Age 32 RHP 6'1" / 245 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MLBMIL	31	31	161	4.36	4.56	21.6%	7.5%	1.6
2025	30	MIX2 levels	25	20	111	4.46	4.22	20.0%	7.3%	1.5	K 20.2% · BB 7.4% · FIP 4.42
2026	31	MIX2 levels	35	16	116	4.05	4.28	19.4%	6.5%	0.4	K 18.5% · BB 6.7% · FIP 4.47
2027PROJ	32	MLBCHC	14	14	86	4.60	4.79	18.7%	7.1%	0.6
2028PROJ	33	MLBCHC	12	12	70	4.88	5.07	17.8%	7.5%	0.3
2029PROJ	34	MLBCHC	8	8	50	5.18	5.38	16.9%	8.0%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs43

K%25

FB Velo10

Form1.39 ERA (proj 4.60) · K 21.2% (proj 18.7%) · BB 7.6% (proj 7.1%) · last 90d · 32 IP through Oct 27

CompsMiguel González (age 32) · Mike Fiers (age 32) · Tim Adleman (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.60

FIP4.79

K%18.7%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%11.6%

Proj IP86

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 86 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.5

Whiff%

p1720.7%

p2518.5%

xwOBA vs

p430.320

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	165	654	141	14	13	100%	6.1	16.4%	2.5%	13.9%	2.7%	3.28	3.51	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	165	654	141	14	13	100%	6.1	21.6%	2.1%	19.4%	2.0%	3.28	2.67	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	21	21	106	447	78	21	12	100%	5.1	14.1%	5.2%	9.0%	3.8%	3.89	4.67	—
2018	23	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	21	21	106	447	78	21	12	100%	5.1	17.4%	4.7%	12.8%	2.7%	3.89	3.69	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	130	524	116	31	11	100%	5.7	20.2%	6.1%	14.1%	2.4%	2.35	3.49	+3.0
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	23	130	524	116	31	11	100%	5.7	22.1%	5.9%	16.2%	2.1%	2.35	3.13	+3.7
2020	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	12	12	74	312	69	16	11	100%	6.2	22.1%	5.1%	17.0%	3.5%	4.74	3.82	+1.4
2020	25	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	12	12	74	312	69	16	11	100%	6.2	22.1%	5.1%	17.0%	3.5%	4.74	3.82	+1.4
2021	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	136	541	111	34	23	100%	5.7	19.9%	6.2%	13.7%	4.6%	3.58	4.75	+1.0
2021	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	136	541	111	34	23	100%	5.7	20.5%	6.3%	14.2%	4.3%	3.58	4.42	+1.6
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	110	467	116	25	16	100%	4.6	24.4%	5.4%	19.0%	3.5%	4.89	3.63	+2.4
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	110	467	116	25	16	100%	4.6	24.8%	5.4%	19.5%	3.4%	4.89	3.56	+2.5
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	133	551	132	37	14	100%	5.1	23.0%	6.5%	16.5%	2.4%	3.58	3.33	+3.4
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	133	551	132	37	14	100%	5.1	24.0%	6.7%	17.2%	2.5%	3.58	3.32	+3.4
2024	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	31	31	161	689	149	52	29	100%	5.2	21.6%	7.5%	14.1%	4.0%	4.36	4.43	+1.8
2024	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	31	31	161	689	149	52	29	100%	5.2	21.6%	7.5%	14.1%	4.0%	4.36	4.43	+1.8
2024	29	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	31	31	161	689	149	52	29	100%	5.2	21.6%	7.5%	14.1%	4.2%	4.36	4.56	+1.6
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	111	465	93	34	16	80%	4.4	20.2%	7.4%	12.9%	3.8%	4.46	4.42	+1.3
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	111	465	93	34	16	80%	4.4	20.2%	7.4%	12.9%	3.8%	4.46	4.42	+1.3
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	20	111	465	93	34	16	80%	4.4	20.0%	7.3%	12.7%	3.4%	4.46	4.22	+1.5
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	16	116	506	98	33	18	46%	3.3	18.5%	6.7%	11.8%	3.8%	4.05	4.47	+0.1
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	16	116	506	98	33	18	46%	3.3	18.5%	6.7%	11.8%	3.8%	4.05	4.47	+0.1
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	16	116	506	98	33	18	46%	3.3	19.4%	6.5%	12.8%	3.6%	4.05	4.28	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			174	150	850	3565	756	234	127	86%	4.9	21.2%	6.6%	14.6%	3.6%	4.15	4.09	+13.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	CHC	14	14	86	363	68	26	13	100%	6.1	18.7%	7.1%	11.6%	3.6%	4.60	4.79	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	70	296	53	22	12	100%	5.8	17.8%	7.5%	10.3%	3.9%	4.88	5.07	+0.3
2029	34	MLB MLE	CHC	8	8	50	212	36	17	9	100%	6.3	16.9%	8.0%	8.9%	4.2%	5.18	5.38	+0.0
2028	33	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	70	296	53	22	12	100%	5.8	17.8%	7.5%	10.3%	3.9%	4.88	5.07	+0.3
2029	34	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	50	211	36	17	9	100%	6.2	16.9%	8.0%	8.9%	4.2%	5.18	5.38	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		194	170	970	4073	845	273	148	88%	5.0	20.7%	6.7%	14.0%	3.6%	4.26	4.19	+13.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	35	200	840	174	56	31	88%	5.0	20.7%	6.7%	14.0%	3.6%	4.26	4.19	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		248	224	1242	5156	1030	302	178	90%	5.0	20.0%	5.9%	14.1%	3.4%	3.85	4.05	+13.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	36	200	830	166	49	29	90%	5.0	20.0%	5.9%	14.1%	3.4%	3.85	4.05	+2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAANashville Sounds · 9 IPFIP 2.54 → 2.65 (+0.11)K% 16.7% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.860	14.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×0.900	6.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.111	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 122).

Result: FIP 2.54 → 2.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAColumbus Clippers · 11 IPFIP 3.64 → 4.08 (+0.44)K% 34.0% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.04%	—	×0.860	29.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.51%	—	×0.900	7.66%
HR / BF /BF	4.26%	÷1.037	×1.100	4.51%

Result: FIP 3.64 → 4.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAColumbus Clippers · 13 IPFIP 3.24 → 3.77 (+0.53)K% 30.0% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.880	26.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.050	7.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷1.001	×1.100	3.66%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.24 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAkron RubberDucks · 7 IPFIP 2.04 → 2.64 (+0.59)K% 28.6% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.810	23.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.71%	—	×1.100	11.79%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.893	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 79).

Result: FIP 2.04 → 2.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAColumbus Clippers · 42 IPFIP 2.79 → 3.23 (+0.44)K% 26.1% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.14%	—	×0.880	23.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.11%	—	×1.050	5.37%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷0.985	×1.100	2.54%

Result: FIP 2.79 → 3.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAkron RubberDucks · 30 IPFIP 3.41 → 4.33 (+0.91)K% 19.8% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.83%	—	×0.810	16.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.96%	—	×1.100	5.45%
HR / BF /BF	2.48%	÷0.863	×1.200	3.45%

Result: FIP 3.41 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAkron RubberDucks · 106 IPFIP 3.70 → 4.67 (+0.97)K% 17.4% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.45%	—	×0.810	14.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.70%	—	×1.100	5.17%
HR / BF /BF	2.68%	÷0.840	×1.200	3.84%

Result: FIP 3.70 → 4.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Lynchburg Hillcats · 108 IPFIP 3.04 → 4.05 (+1.01)K% 21.1% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.05%	—	×0.770	16.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.15%	—	×1.150	2.48%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷0.902	×1.250	3.65%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 3.04 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Civale (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	5.20	17.5%	9.7%	120	+0.41	—	—	—
Miguel González R 2016 · 3.72 FIP	32	SP	3.72	17.8%	5.8%	2.5%	.295	4.71	14.1%	6.3%	168	+0.99	3.72	905	72
Mike Fiers R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	32	SP	5.12	21.8%	9.2%	4.9%	.290	4.88	17.5%	11.5%	416	-0.24	2.83	1,140	69
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	68
Rolando Arrojo R 2000 · 4.47 FIP	32	SP	4.47	16.1%	8.0%	3.1%	.291	3.68	16.4%	9.2%	185	-0.79	3.50	700	63
Orlando Hernandez R 2002 · 3.78 FIP	32	SP	3.78	18.6%	5.6%	2.8%	.258	4.26	18.9%	9.8%	213	+0.48	3.35	1,315	62
Elmer Dessens R 2003 · 4.25 FIP	32	SP	4.25	14.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.319	3.98	15.0%	9.6%	248	-0.27	3.55	1,167	61
Matt Shoemaker R 2019 · 3.80 FIP	32	SP	3.80	22.2%	8.3%	2.8%	.181	5.06	18.8%	11.1%	159	+1.26	3.12	728	60
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2019 · 3.77 FIP	32	SP	3.77	19.4%	8.9%	2.2%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	689	59
Merrill Kelly R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	32	SP	4.00	19.5%	5.7%	3.3%	.297	3.80	23.4%	15.3%	452	-0.20	3.60	1,170	58
Miles Mikolas R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	32	SP	4.27	16.4%	5.5%	3.4%	.269	4.09	17.3%	13.0%	575	-0.18	3.13	1,386	58
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	57
Jeremy Hefner R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	16.8%	9.1%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	322	56
Aaron Brooks R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	32	SP	4.38	15.8%	7.0%	3.1%	.332	4.45	14.2%	7.5%	245	+0.07	3.71	879	56
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	55
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	55
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	54
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	53
Junior Guerra R 2017 · 5.24 FIP	32	SP-	5.24	19.4%	12.8%	3.9%	.255	3.99	22.2%	12.5%	248	-1.25	3.18	646	53
Josh Roenicke R 2015 · 4.85 FIP	32	SP	4.85	10.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.353	3.35	19.2%	11.5%	160	-1.50	3.25	500	53
Leo Medrano R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	14.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.354	4.34	11.0%	3.7%	113	+0.58	3.76	222	52

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.3	96	20.6%	6.8%	1.40	4.29
Scott Bankhead ('86-'95, 10 WAR*)	4.5	100	21.2%*	7.3%*	1.36*	4.16*
Drew Smyly ('24)	5.7	104	23.1%	7.7%	1.49	4.20
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Doug Bird ('73-'83, 10 WAR*)	6.1	110	20.3%*	5.8%*	1.41*	4.43*
Chase Anderson ('24)	5.5	101	19.7%	8.1%	1.48	4.41
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*