Griffin Canning — OGILVIE

Griffin Canning P San Diego Padres

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs MLB peak 0.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION96 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.35

FIP4.41

K%21.7%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%11.5%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 105 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5560

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p5325.8%

p5322.8%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

CH+5.3 (23%)

CU (6%)

CT-1.1 (4%)

FB-2.0 (35%)

SL-2.5 (31%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	113	475	125	44	8	100%	4.5	21.8%	10.0%	11.8%	2.1%	3.65	3.69	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	113	475	125	44	8	100%	4.5	26.3%	9.3%	17.1%	1.7%	3.65	2.98	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	106	444	113	32	14	95%	5.1	25.0%	7.2%	17.8%	3.1%	3.98	3.60	+1.7
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	106	444	113	32	14	95%	5.1	25.5%	7.2%	18.2%	3.2%	3.98	3.59	+1.7
2020	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	11	11	56	238	56	23	8	100%	5.1	23.5%	9.7%	13.9%	3.3%	3.99	4.15	+0.5
2020	24	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	11	11	56	238	56	23	8	100%	5.1	23.5%	9.7%	13.9%	3.4%	3.99	4.18	+0.5
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	65	292	66	33	15	93%	4.3	22.4%	10.1%	12.3%	5.0%	6.26	5.21	-0.2
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	14	65	292	66	33	15	93%	4.3	22.6%	11.3%	11.3%	5.1%	6.26	5.61	-0.5
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	132	558	149	37	22	92%	5.3	25.9%	6.5%	19.4%	4.0%	4.23	3.95	+1.5
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	132	558	149	37	22	92%	5.3	25.9%	6.5%	19.4%	4.0%	4.23	3.95	+1.5
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	132	558	149	37	22	92%	5.3	26.7%	6.6%	20.1%	3.9%	4.23	3.85	+1.7
2024	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	32	31	172	739	130	65	31	97%	5.4	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	4.1%	5.19	4.99	-0.2
2024	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	32	31	172	739	130	65	31	97%	5.4	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	4.1%	5.19	4.99	-0.2
2024	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	32	31	172	739	130	65	31	97%	5.4	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	4.2%	5.19	5.07	-0.3
2025	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	16	16	76	328	70	35	8	100%	4.8	21.3%	10.7%	10.7%	2.4%	3.77	3.99	+0.8
2025	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	16	16	76	328	70	35	8	100%	4.8	21.3%	10.7%	10.7%	2.4%	3.77	3.99	+0.8
2025	29	MLB RAW	New York Mets	16	16	76	328	70	35	8	100%	4.8	21.3%	10.7%	10.7%	2.4%	3.77	4.00	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			141	121	665	2858	634	253	110	86%	4.7	22.2%	8.9%	13.3%	3.8%	4.79	4.48	+3.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	31	16	96	425	99	49	15	52%	3.1	22.6%	11.2%	11.3%	3.5%	5.46	4.54	+0.4
YTD	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	31	16	96	425	99	49	15	52%	3.1	22.6%	11.2%	11.3%	3.5%	5.46	4.54	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	SD	5	5	15	69	18	12	2	100%	3.0	26.1%	17.4%	8.7%	2.9%	3.60	4.69	—
2026	30	MLB RAW	SD	26	11	81	356	81	37	13	42%	3.1	22.8%	10.4%	12.4%	3.7%	5.80	4.50	+0.0
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	SD	26	11	81	356	81	37	13	42%	3.1	22.8%	10.4%	12.4%	3.7%	5.80	4.50	+0.0
ROS	30	MLB MLE	SD	2	2	10	41	9	4	1	100%	4.8	21.7%	10.3%	11.5%	3.4%	4.35	4.41	+0.1
ROS	30	MLB CTX	SD	2	2	10	42	9	4	1	100%	5.0	21.7%	10.3%	11.5%	3.4%	4.35	4.41	+0.1
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	105	466	108	53	16	—	—	23.2%	11.4%	11.7%	3.5%	5.35	4.53	+0.5
FULL	30	MLB A+C	SD	—	—	90	381	108	53	16	—	—	28.3%	13.9%	14.3%	4.3%	6.24	4.83	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	100	420	88	43	16	100%	5.9	20.9%	10.2%	10.7%	3.7%	4.92	5.04	-0.2
2028	32	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	92	388	78	41	15	100%	6.1	20.1%	10.6%	9.5%	3.9%	5.14	5.29	-0.4
2027	31	MLB CTX	SD	17	17	100	422	88	43	16	100%	5.9	20.9%	10.2%	10.7%	3.7%	4.92	5.04	-0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	SD	15	15	92	388	78	41	15	100%	6.1	20.1%	10.6%	9.5%	3.9%	5.14	5.29	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		175	155	866	3707	809	341	142	89%	4.9	21.8%	9.2%	12.6%	3.8%	4.84	4.53	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	36	200	856	187	79	33	89%	5.0	21.8%	9.2%	12.6%	3.8%	4.84	4.53	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		176	156	816	3499	776	316	122	89%	4.6	22.2%	9.0%	13.2%	3.5%	4.56	4.28	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	38	200	857	190	77	30	89%	4.6	22.2%	9.0%	13.2%	3.5%	4.56	4.28	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Griffin Canning (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	20.3%	9.3%	3.3%	—	5.16	20.5%	10.1%	192	+0.38	—	—	—
Matt Harvey R 2019 · 5.21 FIP	30	SP	5.21	18.1%	10.2%	4.3%	.299	5.13	16.2%	8.6%	194	-0.08	2.90	806	69
Garrett Richards R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	30	SP	3.99	26.9%	10.5%	3.3%	.276	4.36	19.4%	10.3%	188	+0.37	2.31	577	65
Dan Straily R 2019 · 5.89 FIP	30	SP-	5.89	18.2%	7.6%	6.1%	.290	6.26	16.7%	5.4%	62	+0.37	3.50	890	63
Collin McHugh R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	30	SP	3.60	21.0%	7.2%	2.5%	.309	3.35	29.5%	21.0%	147	-0.25	1.77	806	62
Matt Shoemaker R 2017 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP	4.88	21.2%	8.6%	4.5%	.271	4.29	23.5%	15.5%	88	-0.59	3.17	592	62
Chi Chi González R 2022 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.6%	8.0%	3.0%	.315	5.36	10.8%	5.2%	122	+1.06	4.01	800	61
Chase Anderson R 2018 · 4.98 FIP	30	SP	4.98	19.9%	8.9%	4.4%	.235	4.93	20.1%	11.9%	253	-0.05	3.30	1,146	60
Anthony DeSclafani R 2020 · 5.30 FIP	30	SP-	5.30	15.8%	10.1%	4.1%	.309	3.92	21.0%	15.4%	286	-1.38	3.38	981	60
Mat Latos R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	29	SP	5.66	16.8%	11.2%	4.7%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	244	59
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	493	59
Yovani Gallardo R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	30	SP	4.66	16.2%	11.2%	2.8%	.301	4.80	15.6%	5.8%	275	+0.14	3.90	577	57
Ross Stripling R 2020 · 5.84 FIP	30	SP-	5.84	18.2%	8.2%	5.9%	.289	4.27	20.4%	15.5%	325	-1.57	3.05	930	57
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	56
Nate Karns R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	29	SP	4.46	27.1%	6.4%	5.2%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	287	56
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	56
Chris Heston R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	29	SP-	5.88	13.6%	10.0%	4.9%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	321	56
Andrew Triggs R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP	4.68	23.6%	9.9%	4.2%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	1.66	242	56
Chris Archer R 2019 · 4.90 FIP	30	SP	4.90	27.2%	10.1%	5.1%	.292	4.39	20.7%	10.4%	136	-0.51	2.85	1,018	55
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	55
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	205	54

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	99	20.4%	10.0%	1.41	4.92
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19