Griffin Canning
P
San Diego Padres
Age 30
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
MLB
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION71 act + 51 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.45
FIP4.53
K%21.5%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%10.5%
ROS IP51
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4794.3
Whiff%
p4224.2%
K%
p5122.3%
xwOBA vs
p320.333
CH+5.3 (23%)
CU (6%)
CT-1.1 (4%)
FB-2.0 (35%)
SL-2.5 (31%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 25 | 113 | 475 | 125 | 44 | 8 | 100% | 4.5 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 2.2% | 3.65 | 3.75 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 25 | 113 | 475 | 125 | 44 | 8 | 100% | 4.5 | 26.3% | 9.3% | 17.1% | 1.7% | 3.65 | 2.98 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 20 | 106 | 444 | 113 | 32 | 14 | 95% | 5.1 | 25.0% | 7.2% | 17.8% | 3.3% | 3.98 | 3.70 | +2.1 |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 20 | 106 | 444 | 113 | 32 | 14 | 95% | 5.1 | 25.5% | 7.2% | 18.2% | 3.2% | 3.98 | 3.59 | +2.3 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 11 | 11 | 56 | 238 | 56 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.5% | 9.7% | 13.9% | 3.5% | 3.99 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 11 | 11 | 56 | 238 | 56 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.5% | 9.7% | 13.9% | 3.4% | 3.99 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 14 | 65 | 292 | 66 | 33 | 15 | 93% | 4.3 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 5.2% | 6.26 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 14 | 65 | 292 | 66 | 33 | 15 | 93% | 4.3 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 5.1% | 6.26 | 5.61 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 23 | 132 | 558 | 149 | 37 | 22 | 92% | 5.3 | 25.9% | 6.5% | 19.4% | 4.3% | 4.23 | 4.07 | +2.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 23 | 132 | 558 | 149 | 37 | 22 | 92% | 5.3 | 26.7% | 6.6% | 20.1% | 3.9% | 4.23 | 3.85 | +2.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 32 | 31 | 172 | 739 | 130 | 65 | 31 | 97% | 5.4 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 4.3% | 5.19 | 5.11 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 32 | 31 | 172 | 739 | 130 | 65 | 31 | 97% | 5.4 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 4.2% | 5.19 | 5.07 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 16 | 16 | 76 | 328 | 70 | 35 | 8 | 100% | 4.8 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 3.77 | 3.99 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 16 | 16 | 76 | 328 | 70 | 35 | 8 | 100% | 4.8 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 2.4% | 3.77 | 4.00 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 18 | 15 | 71 | 316 | 73 | 42 | 10 | 83% | 3.9 | 22.4% | 13.5% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 5.86 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 51 | 215 | 46 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.5% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.45 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | SD | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 46 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 21.5% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.45 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | SD | — | — | 122 | 531 | 119 | 66 | 17 | — | — | 22.4% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 5.27 | 4.62 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | SD | — | — | 107 | 451 | 119 | 66 | 17 | — | — | 26.5% | 14.6% | 11.9% | 3.8% | 6.01 | 4.82 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SD | 17 | 17 | 100 | 420 | 86 | 46 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 4.98 | 5.10 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 76 | 44 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.7% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 5.21 | 5.36 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 84 | 356 | 67 | 42 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.8% | 11.7% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 5.47 | 5.64 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SD | 17 | 17 | 100 | 422 | 86 | 46 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 4.98 | 5.10 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 76 | 44 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.7% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 5.21 | 5.36 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 67 | 41 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.8% | 11.7% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 5.47 | 5.64 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 185 | 177 | 967 | 4129 | 883 | 401 | 157 | 96% | 5.2 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 3.8% | 4.90 | 4.61 | +8.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 37 | 200 | 854 | 183 | 83 | 32 | 96% | 5.2 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 3.8% | 4.90 | 4.61 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 163 | 155 | 791 | 3390 | 751 | 311 | 123 | 95% | 4.9 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 4.57 | 4.38 | +9.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 39 | 200 | 857 | 190 | 79 | 31 | 95% | 4.9 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 4.57 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Griffin Canning (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.83 | 20.3% | 9.3% | 3.4% | — | 5.35 | 19.7% | 8.4% | 276 | +0.52 | — | — | — |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 55 |
| Tyler Herron R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.17 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 117 | 54 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 54 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2028 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 54 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 54 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.91 | 16.8% | 11.4% | 3.2% | .343 | 4.99 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 107 | +0.08 | 2.86 | 306 | 54 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 53 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.84 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.10 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.26 | 3.84 | 567 | 52 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.65 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 262 | 52 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2029 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.79 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .270 | 4.53 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.74 | 3.79 | 264 | 52 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 52 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.20 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .296 | 5.09 | 17.4% | 6.3% | 89 | +0.89 | 4.20 | 166 | 51 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.22 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.3% | .333 | 4.92 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.30 | 2.32 | 676 | 51 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.4% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .299 | 3.66 | 17.1% | 11.3% | 114 | -0.51 | 3.26 | 493 | 51 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.92 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .282 | 4.71 | 12.8% | 4.4% | 142 | +0.79 | 3.92 | 277 | 51 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.03 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 2.0% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 248 | 51 |
| Matt Harvey R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.28 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 4.4% | .299 | 5.20 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 194 | -0.08 | 2.90 | 806 | 50 |
| Lucas Harrell R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.06 | 15.7% | 12.9% | 1.2% | .310 | 3.64 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 30 | -0.42 | 3.64 | 139 | 50 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 50 |
| Miguel González R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.59 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 325 | -0.34 | 3.73 | 469 | 50 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 96 | 19.9% | 10.7% | 1.44 | 5.08 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |