Griffin Canning
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
+0.7
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
AAA
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA4.69
FIP4.75
xFIP4.09
SIERA4.45
K%20.5%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%11.2%
IP107
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL4545
CMD4040
K†5050
FB Velo
p4494.1
Whiff%
p5125.5%
K%
p4521.4%
xwOBA vs
p310.334
CH+5.3 (23%)
CU (6%)
CT-1.1 (4%)
FB-2.0 (35%)
SL-2.5 (31%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 25 | 25 | 113 | 475 | 125 | 44 | 8 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 2.1% | 3.65 | 3.70 | +2.1 |
| 2019 | 23 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 21 | 20 | 106 | 444 | 113 | 32 | 14 | 25.0% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 3.98 | 3.65 | +2.0 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 11 | 11 | 56 | 238 | 56 | 23 | 8 | 23.5% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 3.99 | 3.92 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 15 | 14 | 65 | 292 | 66 | 33 | 15 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 4.8% | 6.26 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 25 | 23 | 132 | 558 | 149 | 37 | 22 | 25.9% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 4.23 | 3.87 | +2.1 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 32 | 31 | 172 | 739 | 130 | 65 | 31 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 4.2% | 5.19 | 5.04 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 16 | 16 | 76 | 328 | 70 | 35 | 8 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 2.4% | 3.77 | 3.95 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 3 | 3 | 8 | 41 | 14 | 9 | 2 | — | — | — | 4.32 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | SD | 19 | 19 | 107 | 451 | 93 | 42 | 15 | 20.6% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.73 | 4.75 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | SD | — | — | 115 | 492 | 107 | 51 | 17 | 21.7% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.41 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SD | 19 | 19 | 103 | 435 | 87 | 41 | 15 | 20.0% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.85 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SD | 18 | 18 | 99 | 418 | 81 | 40 | 15 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 4.90 | 4.97 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | SD | 17 | 17 | 94 | 399 | 75 | 39 | 14 | 18.8% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 5.02 | 5.10 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | SD | 16 | 16 | 90 | 379 | 68 | 38 | 14 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 3.7% | 5.15 | 5.23 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 84 | 357 | 62 | 36 | 14 | 17.3% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 5.29 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 79 | 334 | 62 | 32 | 13 | 18.5% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 5.28 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 148 | 143 | 729 | 3115 | 694 | 277 | 108 | 22.3% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 4.44 | 4.25 | +8.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 39 | 200 | 855 | 190 | 76 | 30 | 22.3% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 4.44 | 4.25 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Griffin Canning (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.3% | 3.3% | — | 4.97 | 19.4% | 9.8% | 296 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 59 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 58 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.16 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .265 | 3.45 | 17.8% | 10.8% | 81 | -0.71 | 3.45 | 315 | 57 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 56 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 56 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .341 | 4.75 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.05 | 3.70 | 205 | 56 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.36 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.4% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 265 | 56 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | +0.17 | 4.87 | 294 | 55 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2029 · 3.77 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.77 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .270 | 4.63 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.86 | 3.77 | 264 | 54 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.52 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.86 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.34 | 4.52 | 150 | 54 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 262 | 54 |
| Ervin Santana R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .273 | 4.12 | 19.2% | 12.4% | 417 | +0.12 | 3.75 | 720 | 54 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.94 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .315 | 4.95 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.01 | 3.94 | 567 | 54 |
| Yohan Pino R 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.10 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .312 | 5.35 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.25 | 4.10 | 133 | 54 |
| Jason Berken R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.51 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | +0.15 | 4.36 | 219 | 53 |
| Ramon Ramirez R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.56 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .310 | 5.29 | 9.2% | -4.9% | 29 | +1.73 | 3.56 | 155 | 53 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2029 · 3.74 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.74 | 15.2% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .262 | 4.37 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 114 | +0.63 | 3.74 | 240 | 52 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.13 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 248 | 52 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.16 | 13.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .307 | 4.46 | 12.6% | 2.6% | 145 | +0.30 | 4.16 | 325 | 52 |
| Tim Adleman R 2025 · 5.33 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.33 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 5.0% | .276 | 4.33 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 117 | -1.00 | 3.64 | 605 | 52 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.