Parker Messick
P
Cleveland Guardians
+1.9
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'0" / 225 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 2.2 · 2027
ERA3.43
FIP3.90
xFIP3.21
SIERA3.34
K%24.2%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%15.7%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.2peak
2027
OFP—50
K†5560
FB Velo
p3693.5
Whiff%
p5125.4%
K%
p6925.7%
xwOBA vs
p780.285
FB+3.2 (46%)
SL+2.4 (10%)
CH+2.2 (24%)
CT (10%)
SI (13%)
CU (11%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 26 | 24 | 122 | 520 | 136 | 39 | 11 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 2.5% | 3.77 | 3.93 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 27 | 26 | 134 | 547 | 165 | 44 | 10 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 2.0% | 2.83 | 3.35 | +3.0 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 27 | 27 | 138 | 574 | 157 | 48 | 13 | 24.9% | 8.7% | 2.3% | 3.25 | 3.36 | +3.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 4 | 4 | 26 | 93 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 26.9% | 7.5% | 1.1% | 1.05 | 2.37 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CLE | 17 | 17 | 94 | 398 | 97 | 33 | 9 | 24.4% | 8.3% | 2.3% | 2.63 | 3.35 | +2.0 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 120 | 491 | 122 | 40 | 10 | 24.9% | 8.1% | 2.1% | 2.29 | 3.14 | +2.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 23 | 23 | 127 | 536 | 130 | 44 | 13 | 24.3% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 3.51 | 3.78 | +2.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 132 | 45 | 13 | 24.1% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 3.72 | 3.83 | +2.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 132 | 45 | 14 | 24.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 3.82 | 3.88 | +2.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 23 | 23 | 127 | 537 | 126 | 44 | 14 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 3.91 | 3.96 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 119 | 44 | 14 | 22.9% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 4.00 | 4.05 | +1.7 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 119 | 503 | 112 | 43 | 14 | 22.3% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.16 | +1.5 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 105 | 42 | 13 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.27 | +1.3 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 97 | 41 | 13 | 21.0% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.40 | +1.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 89 | 40 | 13 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.54 | +0.9 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 81 | 38 | 13 | 19.6% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 4.69 | +0.7 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 17 | 17 | 91 | 385 | 72 | 37 | 12 | 18.8% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.85 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 37 | MLB | CLE | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 64 | 35 | 12 | 18.0% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 5.03 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 84 | 81 | 419 | 1734 | 401 | 152 | 38 | 23.1% | 8.8% | 2.2% | 3.13 | 3.47 | +8.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 39 | 200 | 827 | 191 | 72 | 18 | 23.1% | 8.8% | 2.2% | 3.13 | 3.47 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Parker Messick (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.01 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 2.6% | — | 3.83 | 24.1% | 15.9% | 387 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Nick Maronde L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .359 | 3.62 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.20 | 3.62 | 133 | 80 |
| Brad Hand L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .326 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.27 | 0.84 | 577 | 80 |
| Matt Stalcup L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.61 | 16.2% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .266 | 6.15 | 11.5% | -1.2% | 56 | +2.54 | 3.61 | 145 | 79 |
| Matt Tracy L 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.94 | 14.4% | 9.8% | 1.5% | .306 | 4.11 | 14.7% | 5.5% | 208 | +0.17 | 3.24 | 298 | 78 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 78 |
| Seth Lonsway L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.35 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 1.2% | .301 | 4.08 | 17.5% | 5.0% | 134 | +0.73 | 3.35 | 414 | 77 |
| Juan Martinez L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 13.3% | 8.1% | 1.5% | .303 | 4.77 | 15.3% | 3.7% | 95 | +0.94 | 3.41 | 273 | 76 |
| Drake Britton L 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.65 | 11.1% | 9.7% | 2.3% | .268 | 4.76 | 8.0% | -2.2% | 41 | +0.11 | 4.65 | 125 | 75 |
| Jose Molina L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.17 | 14.4% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 144 | 75 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .313 | 3.83 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.16 | 3.41 | 440 | 74 |
| Chipper Smith L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 74 |
| Joe Miller L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .294 | 4.27 | 19.6% | 6.3% | 11 | -0.01 | 3.78 | 295 | 74 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.00 | 16.7% | 11.9% | 3.3% | .273 | 5.89 | 16.9% | 6.7% | 89 | +0.89 | 3.67 | 331 | 74 |
| James Buckelew L 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 14.4% | 8.1% | 0.8% | .230 | 4.76 | 12.8% | 3.9% | 39 | +1.39 | 3.07 | 308 | 74 |
| Michael Sansone L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.27 | 15.7% | 4.6% | 3.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 186 | 74 |
| Matt Lujan L 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.09 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .326 | 4.80 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 119 | +0.71 | 4.09 | 227 | 74 |
| Eric Wooten L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 73 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 73 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 73 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.87 | 19.2% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 236 | 73 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.233 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.7 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.2 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.2 | $19M | +$18M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $7M | +2.1 | $18M | +$12M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $11M | +1.9 | $17M | +$7M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $15M | +1.7 | $16M | +$0.5M |
| Totals | $35M | $102M | +$67M | ||