Parker Messick — OGILVIE

Parker Messick P Cleveland Guardians

Age 25 LHP 6'0" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 3.8 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION172 act + 16 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7280vR 88

ERA3.04

FIP3.18

K%25.4%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%18.6%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 188 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$55M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL6055

CMD5560

K†5560

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4794.3

Whiff%

p5325.8%

p7126.0%

xwOBA vs

p900.272

FB+3.2 (56%)

SL+2.4 (7%)

CH+2.2 (23%)

CT (5%)

SI (15%)

CU (9%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.233 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.4	$1M	+$1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.6	$20M	+$19M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.6	$18M	+$18M
2029	Arb-1	$8M	+2.4	$15M	+$9M
2030	Arb-2	$12M	+2.0	$12M	+$4M
2031	Arb-3	$14M	+1.5	$8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$22M		$75M	+$51M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	122	520	136	39	11	92%	4.7	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	2.5%	3.77	3.91	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	122	520	136	39	11	92%	4.7	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	2.5%	3.77	3.91	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	122	520	136	39	11	92%	4.7	26.2%	7.5%	18.7%	2.1%	3.77	3.00	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	134	547	165	44	10	96%	5.0	23.8%	9.1%	14.8%	2.1%	2.83	3.36	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	134	547	165	44	10	96%	5.0	23.8%	9.1%	14.8%	2.1%	2.83	3.36	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	134	547	165	44	10	96%	5.0	30.2%	8.0%	22.1%	1.8%	2.83	2.59	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	138	574	157	48	13	100%	5.1	23.8%	7.6%	16.2%	2.3%	3.25	3.30	+2.7
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	138	574	157	48	13	100%	5.1	23.8%	7.6%	16.2%	2.3%	3.25	3.30	+2.7
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	138	574	157	48	13	100%	5.1	27.4%	8.4%	19.0%	2.3%	3.25	3.09	+3.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			36	36	212	850	216	51	20	100%	5.9	25.4%	6.0%	19.4%	2.4%	2.55	3.01	+5.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	29	29	172	685	178	45	16	100%	5.9	26.0%	6.6%	19.4%	2.3%	2.51	3.02	+4.1
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	29	29	172	685	178	45	16	100%	5.9	26.0%	6.6%	19.4%	2.3%	2.51	3.02	+4.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	MLB RAW	CLE	29	29	172	685	178	45	16	100%	5.9	26.0%	6.6%	19.4%	2.3%	2.51	3.02	+4.1
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	CLE	29	29	172	685	178	45	16	100%	5.9	26.0%	6.6%	19.4%	2.3%	2.51	3.02	+4.1
ROS	25	MLB MLE	CLE	3	3	16	66	17	4	2	100%	5.2	25.4%	6.7%	18.6%	2.5%	3.04	3.18	+0.3
ROS	25	MLB CTX	CLE	3	3	16	68	17	5	2	100%	5.3	25.4%	6.7%	18.6%	2.5%	3.03	3.17	+0.3
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	188	751	195	49	18	—	—	25.9%	6.6%	19.3%	2.3%	2.55	3.04	+4.4
FULL	25	MLB A+C	CLE	—	—	188	793	195	49	18	—	—	24.5%	6.2%	18.3%	2.2%	2.55	3.04	+4.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CLE	28	28	165	698	176	47	17	100%	5.9	25.2%	6.8%	18.5%	2.4%	3.48	3.53	+2.8
2028	27	MLB MLE	CLE	28	28	167	704	178	48	17	100%	6.0	25.2%	6.8%	18.4%	2.5%	3.54	3.57	+2.7
2029	28	MLB MLE	CLE	28	28	167	704	177	49	18	100%	6.0	25.1%	7.0%	18.1%	2.6%	3.61	3.66	+2.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	CLE	27	27	159	673	165	48	18	100%	5.9	24.5%	7.2%	17.3%	2.7%	3.73	3.82	+2.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	CLE	25	25	150	632	151	47	18	100%	6.0	23.8%	7.5%	16.3%	2.9%	3.91	4.02	+1.6
2032	31	MLB MLE	CLE	23	23	140	589	136	46	19	100%	6.1	23.1%	7.9%	15.2%	3.1%	4.12	4.26	+1.1
2033	32	MLB MLE	CLE	22	22	129	545	121	45	19	100%	5.9	22.3%	8.3%	14.0%	3.4%	4.35	4.51	+0.6
2034	33	MLB MLE	CLE	20	20	118	500	107	44	18	100%	5.9	21.4%	8.7%	12.7%	3.7%	4.61	4.79	+0.1
2035	34	MLB MLE	CLE	18	18	108	455	93	42	18	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.2%	11.3%	4.0%	4.90	5.09	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	CLE	26	26	157	663	167	45	16	100%	6.0	25.2%	6.8%	18.5%	2.4%	3.48	3.53	+2.6
2028	27	MLB CTX	CLE	26	26	158	667	168	46	16	100%	6.1	25.2%	6.8%	18.4%	2.5%	3.54	3.57	+2.6
2029	28	MLB CTX	CLE	26	26	158	667	168	47	17	100%	6.1	25.1%	7.0%	18.1%	2.6%	3.61	3.66	+2.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	CLE	25	25	151	638	156	46	17	100%	6.0	24.5%	7.2%	17.3%	2.7%	3.73	3.82	+2.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	CLE	24	24	142	600	143	45	17	100%	5.9	23.8%	7.5%	16.3%	2.9%	3.91	4.02	+1.5
2032	31	MLB CTX	CLE	22	22	133	562	130	44	18	100%	6.0	23.1%	7.9%	15.2%	3.1%	4.12	4.26	+1.0
2033	32	MLB CTX	CLE	20	20	123	519	116	43	18	100%	6.2	22.3%	8.3%	14.0%	3.4%	4.35	4.51	+0.6
2034	33	MLB CTX	CLE	19	19	112	473	101	41	17	100%	5.9	21.4%	8.7%	12.7%	3.7%	4.60	4.78	+0.1
2035	34	MLB CTX	CLE	16	16	97	410	84	38	16	100%	6.1	20.5%	9.2%	11.3%	4.0%	4.89	5.08	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		244	244	1460	6121	1468	450	175	100%	6.0	24.0%	7.4%	16.6%	2.9%	3.74	3.58	+23.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	838	201	62	24	100%	6.0	24.0%	7.4%	16.6%	2.9%	3.74	3.58	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		109	106	566	2326	548	184	53	97%	5.2	23.6%	7.9%	15.7%	2.3%	3.04	3.37	+18.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	37	200	822	194	65	19	97%	5.2	23.6%	7.9%	15.7%	2.3%	3.04	3.37	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Parker Messick (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.82	23.2%	7.1%	2.5%	—	3.59	25.2%	18.3%	499	-0.23	—	—	—
Tyler Skaggs L 2016 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP	3.18	26.1%	9.2%	2.1%	.300	3.72	23.0%	15.2%	290	+0.54	3.18	372	79
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	72
Matt Moore L 2015 · 4.17 FIP	26	SP	4.17	21.9%	7.8%	3.5%	.323	4.44	19.7%	11.3%	475	+0.27	2.80	861	72
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	71
David Peterson L 2021 · 4.46 FIP	25	SP	4.46	24.0%	10.1%	3.8%	.298	3.63	24.1%	14.2%	401	-0.83	2.81	1,061	70
Trenton Wallace L 2023 · 2.87 FIP	24	SP	2.87	23.2%	8.1%	1.3%	.208	5.05	22.2%	9.7%	165	+2.18	2.87	286	69
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	67
Patrick Corbin L 2015 · 3.34 FIP	26	SP	3.34	20.6%	5.3%	2.4%	.312	3.46	24.1%	17.2%	545	+0.12	2.30	1,829	67
Ryan Rolison L 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP	3.81	21.5%	6.9%	3.0%	.320	5.21	14.5%	9.5%	35	+1.40	3.81	386	67
Joe Rock L 2023 · 4.44 FIP	23	SP	4.44	22.1%	8.9%	3.8%	.335	4.16	18.8%	10.4%	289	-0.28	3.82	486	67
Drew Smyly L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	26	SP	4.09	27.0%	8.0%	4.1%	.293	4.44	22.6%	16.2%	175	+0.35	2.00	840	67
Brian Holmes L 2016 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP-	3.60	19.1%	6.6%	2.3%	.313	5.91	15.5%	3.8%	53	+2.31	3.60	205	67
Aríel Miranda L 2015 · 3.46 FIP	26	SP	3.46	18.3%	10.2%	1.1%	.280	5.12	19.2%	10.2%	364	+1.66	3.46	431	66
Tyson Guerrero L 2023 · 4.26 FIP	24	SP	4.26	23.9%	9.8%	3.5%	.279	4.67	19.4%	7.6%	142	+0.41	4.26	250	66
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	65
Brant Hurter L 2023 · 3.07 FIP	24	SP	3.07	21.6%	7.3%	1.6%	.311	3.51	20.6%	13.6%	207	+0.44	2.84	432	65
Carson Palmquist L 2023 · 4.37 FIP	22	SP	4.37	26.7%	10.8%	3.9%	.324	4.46	21.1%	8.9%	288	+0.09	3.84	380	64
Tucker Davidson L 2021 · 3.66 FIP	25	SP	3.66	25.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.204	4.63	18.8%	9.9%	299	+0.97	2.72	842	64
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	64
Jackson Wolf L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SP	4.16	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.279	4.35	18.2%	9.2%	348	+0.19	4.07	614	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.3	146	23.7%	7.5%	1.13	3.93
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68