Parker Messick — OGILVIE

Parker Messick P Cleveland Guardians

Age 25 LHP 6'0" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.0 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION112 act + 75 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7382vR 91

ERA3.16

FIP3.30

K%24.5%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%16.8%

ROS IP75

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 187 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL6055

CMD5560

K†5560

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p5626.3%

p6424.7%

xwOBA vs

p820.281

FB+3.2 (52%)

SL+2.4 (6%)

CH+2.2 (24%)

CT (7%)

SI (18%)

CU (11%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.233 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+1.9	$15M	+$15M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$13M	+$13M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$13M	+$12M
2029	Arb-1	$7M	+1.8	$11M	+$6M
2030	Arb-2	$11M	+1.4	$8M	+$1M
2031	Arb-3	$13M	+1.0	$5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$20M		$67M	+$47M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	22	MIX	2 levels	26	24	122	520	136	39	11	92%	4.7	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	2.4%	3.77	3.84	—
2023	22	MIX	2 levels	26	24	122	520	136	39	11	92%	4.7	26.2%	7.5%	18.7%	2.1%	3.77	3.00	—
2024	23	MIX	2 levels	27	26	134	547	165	44	10	96%	5.0	23.8%	9.1%	14.8%	1.9%	2.83	3.30	—
2024	23	MIX	2 levels	27	26	134	547	165	44	10	96%	5.0	30.2%	8.0%	22.1%	1.8%	2.83	2.59	—
2025	24	MIX	2 levels	27	27	138	574	157	48	13	100%	5.1	24.9%	8.7%	16.1%	2.2%	3.25	3.29	+3.4
2025	24	MIX	2 levels	27	27	138	574	157	48	13	100%	5.1	27.4%	8.4%	19.0%	2.3%	3.25	3.09	+3.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	19	19	112	445	110	34	10	100%	5.9	24.7%	7.6%	17.1%	2.2%	2.73	3.21	+2.9
ROS	25	MLB	CLE	13	13	75	315	77	24	7	100%	5.7	24.5%	7.7%	16.8%	2.4%	3.16	3.30	+1.4
ROS	25	MLB	CLE	13	13	75	317	78	24	7	100%	5.8	24.5%	7.7%	16.8%	2.4%	3.16	3.30	+1.4
2026 TOT	25	MLB	CLE	—	—	187	760	187	58	17	—	—	24.6%	7.6%	17.0%	2.3%	2.91	3.25	+4.7
2026 FULL	25	MLB	CLE	—	—	187	788	187	58	17	—	—	23.7%	7.4%	16.4%	2.2%	2.90	3.24	+4.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	CLE	28	28	170	719	177	55	17	100%	6.1	24.6%	7.6%	17.0%	2.4%	3.62	3.67	+3.4
2028	27	MLB	CLE	29	29	172	725	178	56	18	100%	5.9	24.6%	7.7%	16.9%	2.4%	3.67	3.71	+3.4
2029	28	MLB	CLE	29	29	172	725	177	57	18	100%	5.9	24.4%	7.8%	16.6%	2.5%	3.74	3.79	+3.2
2030	29	MLB	CLE	27	27	164	692	165	56	19	100%	6.1	23.9%	8.1%	15.8%	2.7%	3.87	3.96	+2.8
2031	30	MLB	CLE	26	26	154	651	151	55	19	100%	5.9	23.2%	8.4%	14.8%	2.9%	4.05	4.16	+2.2
2032	31	MLB	CLE	24	24	144	607	136	53	19	100%	6.0	22.4%	8.7%	13.7%	3.1%	4.26	4.39	+1.7
2033	32	MLB	CLE	22	22	133	562	121	51	19	100%	6.0	21.6%	9.1%	12.5%	3.3%	4.49	4.65	+1.2
2034	33	MLB	CLE	20	20	122	515	107	49	19	100%	6.1	20.8%	9.6%	11.2%	3.6%	4.75	4.93	+0.7
2027	26	MLB	CLE	27	27	162	684	168	52	16	100%	6.0	24.6%	7.6%	17.0%	2.4%	3.62	3.67	+3.3
2028	27	MLB	CLE	27	27	163	688	169	53	17	100%	6.0	24.6%	7.7%	16.9%	2.4%	3.67	3.71	+3.2
2029	28	MLB	CLE	27	27	163	688	168	54	17	100%	6.0	24.4%	7.8%	16.6%	2.5%	3.74	3.79	+3.1
2030	29	MLB	CLE	26	26	156	659	157	53	18	100%	6.0	23.9%	8.1%	15.8%	2.7%	3.87	3.96	+2.6
2031	30	MLB	CLE	24	24	146	616	143	52	18	100%	6.1	23.2%	8.4%	14.8%	2.9%	4.05	4.16	+2.1
2032	31	MLB	CLE	23	23	137	578	130	50	18	100%	6.0	22.4%	8.7%	13.7%	3.1%	4.26	4.39	+1.6
2033	32	MLB	CLE	21	21	126	532	115	49	18	100%	6.0	21.6%	9.1%	12.5%	3.3%	4.49	4.65	+1.1
2034	33	MLB	CLE	19	19	116	490	102	47	18	100%	6.1	20.8%	9.6%	11.2%	3.6%	4.75	4.93	+0.6
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			234	234	1395	5862	1377	474	160	100%	6.0	23.5%	8.1%	15.4%	2.7%	3.82	3.64	+28.7
/ 200 IP	—			33	33	200	840	197	68	23	100%	6.0	23.5%	8.1%	15.4%	2.7%	3.82	3.64	+4.1
Career	—			99	96	506	2086	486	179	45	97%	5.1	23.3%	8.6%	14.7%	2.2%	3.15	3.41	+11.8
/ 200 IP	—			39	38	200	825	192	71	18	97%	5.1	23.3%	8.6%	14.7%	2.2%	3.15	3.41	+4.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Parker Messick (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.80	23.9%	7.7%	2.5%	—	3.72	24.5%	16.8%	514	-0.08	—	—	—
Tyler Skaggs L 2026 · 3.21 FIP	25	SP	3.21	26.1%	9.2%	2.1%	.300	3.81	23.0%	15.2%	290	+0.60	3.21	372	81
Dalton Pence L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP	3.89	22.0%	8.1%	3.0%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.32	153	78
James Paxton L 2027 · 4.26 FIP	26	SP	4.26	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	3.00	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.26	2.48	924	76
Matt Moore L 2027 · 4.18 FIP	26	SP	4.18	21.9%	7.8%	3.5%	.323	4.45	19.7%	11.3%	475	+0.27	2.82	845	73
David Peterson L 2026 · 4.46 FIP	25	SP	4.46	24.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.298	3.65	24.2%	14.0%	401	-0.81	2.80	1,080	73
Zach Thornton L 2025 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	20.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	221	73
Sebastian Gongora L 2025 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP	3.81	18.5%	7.5%	2.4%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	152	72
Payton Tolle L 2024 · 3.08 FIP	23	SP	3.08	25.8%	7.3%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	207	72
Kohl Drake L 2026 · 4.34 FIP	25	SP	4.34	23.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.295	5.13	17.0%	6.5%	66	+0.79	3.28	297	72
Mason Molina L 2024 · 3.56 FIP	23	SP	3.56	23.3%	10.0%	2.1%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	165	72
Aríel Miranda L 2027 · 3.38 FIP	26	SP	3.38	18.3%	10.2%	0.9%	.280	5.41	19.2%	10.2%	364	+2.03	3.38	431	71
Connor Prielipp L 2026 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP	3.55	25.3%	9.4%	2.5%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	1.72	184	71
Jake Bennett L 2026 · 2.79 FIP	25	SP	2.79	21.0%	4.9%	1.5%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	219	70
Connor Wietgrefe L 2025 · 4.26 FIP	24	SP	4.26	18.7%	8.5%	3.0%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	200	70
Jackson Kent L 2024 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP	3.80	23.2%	7.8%	3.0%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	197	70
Kyle Carr L 2025 · 4.01 FIP	24	SP	4.01	22.7%	10.0%	2.8%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	304	70
Brian Holmes L 2026 · 3.42 FIP	25	SP-	3.42	19.1%	6.6%	2.0%	.313	6.01	15.5%	3.8%	53	+2.59	3.42	205	69
Ryan Rolison L 2025 · 3.63 FIP	24	SP	3.63	21.5%	6.9%	2.7%	.320	5.03	15.4%	9.5%	35	+1.40	3.63	362	69
Gage Jump L 2024 · 3.32 FIP	23	SP	3.32	26.1%	9.4%	2.2%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	199	68
Luke Fox L 2025 · 2.79 FIP	24	SP	2.79	26.2%	7.7%	1.7%	.167	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	148	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9	154	23.4%	8.2%	1.08	3.97
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Jake Arrieta ('21)	7	149	21.9%	8.0%	1.04	3.71
Jake Odorizzi ('22)	7	148	22.1%	8.1%	1.24	3.92
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Jon Lester ('21)	7	163	21.5%	7.2%	1.17	3.77
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46