Parker Messick

P Cleveland Guardians

Age 26 LHP 6'0" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 3.5 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	27	26	134	2.83	2.59	30.2%	8.0%	—	K 23.8% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.36
2025	24	MIX2 levels	27	27	138	3.25	3.09	27.4%	8.4%	4.0	K 24.4% · BB 7.6% · FIP 3.25
2026	25	MLBCLE	32	32	186	2.56	2.97	25.8%	6.3%	5.7
2027PROJ	26	MLBCLE	26	26	154	3.28	3.49	24.9%	6.2%	3.6
2028PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBCLE	21	21	124	3.43	3.53	24.9%	6.2%	2.8
2029PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBCLE	19	19	112	3.54	3.61	24.8%	6.4%	2.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 9.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 8.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.233First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$6M2030Arb-2$8M2031Arb-3$9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs88

K%70

FB Velo48

Form2.87 ERA (proj 3.28) · K 27.4% (proj 24.9%) · BB 5.9% (proj 6.2%) ▲ last 60d · 31 IP through Oct 27

CompsAdam Morgan (age 26) · Glendon Rusch (age 26) · Jonathan Sánchez (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7785vR 93

ERA3.28

FIP3.49

K%24.9%

BB%6.2%

K-BB%18.8%

Proj IP154

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 154 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$74M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4894.4

Whiff%

p5125.5%

p7025.8%

xwOBA vs

p880.275

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.233 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.6	$37M	+$36M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.8	$22M	+$22M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+2.4	$16M	+$12M
2030	Arb-2	$8M	+2.0	$13M	+$7M
2031	Arb-3	$9M	+1.5	$9M	+$3M
Totals		$24M		$97M	+$79M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	122	520	136	39	11	92%	4.7	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	2.5%	3.77	3.91	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	122	520	136	39	11	92%	4.7	26.2%	7.5%	18.7%	2.1%	3.77	3.00	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	134	547	165	44	10	96%	5.0	23.8%	9.1%	14.8%	2.1%	2.83	3.36	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	134	547	165	44	10	96%	5.0	23.8%	9.1%	14.8%	2.1%	2.83	3.36	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	134	547	165	44	10	96%	5.0	30.2%	8.0%	22.1%	1.8%	2.83	2.59	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	138	574	157	48	13	100%	5.1	24.4%	7.6%	16.8%	2.3%	3.25	3.25	+3.7
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	138	574	157	48	13	100%	5.1	24.4%	7.6%	16.8%	2.3%	3.25	3.25	+3.7
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	138	574	157	48	13	100%	5.1	27.4%	8.4%	19.0%	2.3%	3.25	3.09	+4.0
2026	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	32	32	186	747	193	47	17	100%	5.8	25.8%	6.3%	19.5%	2.3%	2.56	2.97	+5.7
2026	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	32	32	186	747	193	47	17	100%	5.8	25.8%	6.3%	19.5%	2.3%	2.56	2.97	+5.7
2026	25	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	32	32	186	747	193	47	17	100%	5.8	25.8%	6.3%	19.5%	2.3%	2.56	2.97	+5.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			39	39	226	912	231	53	21	100%	5.8	25.3%	5.8%	19.5%	2.3%	2.59	2.97	+6.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CLE	26	26	154	650	162	40	16	100%	5.9	24.9%	6.2%	18.8%	2.4%	3.28	3.49	+3.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CLE	22	22	130	551	137	34	14	100%	5.9	24.9%	6.2%	18.7%	2.5%	3.43	3.53	+3.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	CLE	20	20	117	496	123	32	13	100%	5.9	24.8%	6.4%	18.4%	2.6%	3.54	3.61	+2.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	CLE	18	18	106	447	108	30	12	100%	5.9	24.2%	6.6%	17.6%	2.7%	3.68	3.77	+2.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	CLE	15	15	93	391	92	27	11	100%	6.2	23.5%	6.9%	16.6%	2.9%	3.86	3.98	+1.6
2032	31	MLB MLE	CLE	13	13	78	328	75	24	10	100%	6.0	22.8%	7.3%	15.5%	3.2%	4.07	4.21	+1.1
2033	32	MLB MLE	CLE	10	10	61	258	57	20	9	100%	6.1	22.0%	7.7%	14.3%	3.4%	4.31	4.47	+0.7
2034	33	MLB MLE	CLE	7	7	44	186	39	15	7	100%	6.3	21.1%	8.1%	13.0%	3.7%	4.57	4.75	+0.3
2035	34	MLB MLE	CLE	5	5	29	122	25	11	5	100%	5.8	20.2%	8.6%	11.6%	4.0%	4.86	5.05	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	CLE	21	21	124	524	130	33	13	100%	5.9	24.9%	6.2%	18.7%	2.5%	3.43	3.53	+2.8
2029	28	MLB CTX	CLE	19	19	112	473	117	30	12	100%	5.9	24.8%	6.4%	18.4%	2.6%	3.54	3.61	+2.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	CLE	17	17	101	426	103	28	12	100%	5.9	24.2%	6.6%	17.6%	2.7%	3.68	3.77	+2.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	CLE	15	15	88	372	87	26	11	100%	5.9	23.5%	6.9%	16.6%	2.9%	3.86	3.98	+1.5
2032	31	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	74	312	71	23	10	100%	6.2	22.8%	7.3%	15.5%	3.1%	4.07	4.21	+1.0
2033	32	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	58	245	54	19	8	100%	5.8	22.0%	7.7%	14.3%	3.4%	4.31	4.47	+0.6
2034	33	MLB CTX	CLE	7	7	42	177	37	14	7	100%	6.0	21.1%	8.1%	13.0%	3.7%	4.56	4.74	+0.3
2035	34	MLB CTX	CLE	4	4	26	110	22	9	4	100%	6.5	20.2%	8.6%	11.6%	4.0%	4.85	5.04	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		143	143	850	3547	853	235	98	100%	5.9	24.0%	6.6%	17.4%	2.7%	3.51	3.42	+20.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	835	201	55	23	100%	5.9	24.0%	6.6%	17.4%	2.7%	3.51	3.42	+4.9
Career	—	MLE		112	109	580	2388	567	186	54	97%	5.2	23.7%	7.8%	16.0%	2.3%	3.04	3.33	+18.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	38	200	823	195	64	19	97%	5.2	23.7%	7.8%	16.0%	2.3%	3.04	3.33	+4.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAColumbus Clippers · 99 IPFIP 3.15 → 3.37 (+0.22)K% 29.1% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.10%	—	×0.860	25.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.27%	—	×0.900	9.24%
HR / BF /BF	2.20%	÷1.093	×1.100	2.22%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 3.15 → 3.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Lake County Captains · 68 IPFIP 2.91 → 3.67 (+0.76)K% 28.2% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.17%	—	×0.770	21.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.10%	—	×1.150	9.31%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷1.190	×1.250	2.22%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 138).

Result: FIP 2.91 → 3.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAkron RubberDucks · 66 IPFIP 2.22 → 3.04 (+0.82)K% 32.3% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.32%	—	×0.810	26.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.98%	—	×1.100	8.78%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷0.966	×1.200	1.89%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 2.22 → 3.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Lake County Captains · 65 IPFIP 3.91 → 4.94 (+1.02)K% 26.3% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.32%	—	×0.770	20.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.77%	—	×1.150	10.09%
HR / BF /BF	3.51%	÷1.060	×1.250	4.14%

Result: FIP 3.91 → 4.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ALynchburg Hillcats · 57 IPFIP 1.90 → 2.67 (+0.77)K% 26.0% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.96%	—	×0.740	19.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.96%	—	×1.180	7.03%
HR / BF /BF	0.43%	÷1.017	×1.300	0.54%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 1.90 → 2.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Parker Messick (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.4%	—	3.63	24.7%	18.3%	354	+0.14	—	—	—
Adam Morgan L 2016 · 4.10 FIP	26	SP	4.10	19.9%	5.2%	3.7%	.315	3.66	24.3%	16.6%	151	-0.44	3.45	522	73
Glendon Rusch L 2001 · 3.69 FIP	26	SP	3.69	19.9%	5.2%	2.9%	.342	4.07	15.9%	8.6%	464	+0.38	3.34	1,472	72
Jonathan Sánchez L 2009 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP	3.94	24.9%	11.7%	2.7%	.269	4.30	22.5%	9.6%	359	+0.36	3.65	895	71
Roenis Elías L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	26	SP	4.32	17.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.299	3.98	17.7%	8.3%	251	-0.34	3.15	728	70
Erik Bedard L 2005 · 3.43 FIP	26	SP	3.43	20.6%	9.2%	1.7%	.311	3.38	24.3%	15.8%	459	-0.05	2.96	1,317	69
Matthew Boyd L 2017 · 4.24 FIP	26	SP	4.24	19.5%	7.9%	3.2%	.302	4.41	25.8%	18.9%	416	+0.17	2.22	1,457	68
Cole Ragans L 2024 · 2.89 FIP	26	SP	2.89	29.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.286	3.92	35.1%	24.6%	97	+1.03	2.48	623	68
Joey Lucchesi L 2019 · 3.98 FIP	26	SP	3.98	23.0%	8.2%	3.3%	.269	3.18	26.1%	19.1%	38	-0.80	3.12	817	65
Quinn Mathews L 2024 · 2.75 FIP	23	SP	2.75	27.9%	9.2%	1.5%	.267	4.31	23.1%	9.7%	242	+1.56	2.75	386	65
Cliff Lee L 2005 · 3.87 FIP	26	SP	3.87	17.1%	6.1%	2.6%	.277	3.80	16.6%	11.1%	521	-0.07	2.49	2,146	64
Francisco Liriano L 2010 · 2.52 FIP	26	SP	2.52	24.9%	7.2%	1.1%	.325	3.78	22.7%	11.5%	452	+1.26	2.43	1,814	64
Eduardo Rodriguez L 2019 · 3.66 FIP	26	SP	3.66	24.8%	8.5%	2.9%	.311	3.50	24.9%	17.5%	264	-0.16	3.25	1,596	63
Wade Miley L 2013 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP	3.91	17.4%	7.3%	2.5%	.292	3.86	19.4%	11.7%	561	-0.05	3.12	1,805	63
Wei-Yin Chen L 2012 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP	4.15	18.8%	7.0%	3.2%	.272	3.78	18.4%	13.2%	514	-0.37	3.63	1,065	63
Sean Manaea L 2018 · 4.24 FIP	26	SP	4.24	16.5%	4.7%	3.5%	.243	3.58	25.9%	20.7%	291	-0.66	3.28	1,511	62
Nick Lodolo L 2024 · 3.30 FIP	26	SP	3.30	24.7%	7.5%	2.4%	.274	4.02	21.4%	14.7%	265	+0.72	1.54	562	62
Hyun Jin Ryu L 2013 · 3.18 FIP	26	SP	3.18	19.7%	5.7%	1.8%	.293	2.61	21.3%	17.3%	170	-0.57	2.45	1,069	61
Odalis Perez L 2003 · 4.24 FIP	26	SP	4.24	18.3%	5.4%	3.6%	.291	4.17	15.7%	10.4%	431	-0.07	3.40	1,324	61
Alex Wood L 2017 · 2.97 FIP	26	SP	2.97	24.6%	5.2%	2.3%	.260	3.68	21.0%	15.3%	200	+0.71	2.66	1,258	61
Tyler Anderson L 2016 · 3.30 FIP	26	SP	3.30	20.2%	5.9%	2.1%	.310	4.28	22.3%	14.4%	295	+0.98	3.10	1,288	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.2	94	24.2%	6.6%	1.05	3.49
Collin McHugh ('23)	5.0	90	23.3%	6.7%	0.96	3.72
Alejandro Peña ('81-'96, 15 WAR*)	5.3	81	24.7%*	7.5%*	0.96*	3.61*
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*
Andy McGaffigan ('81-'91, 10 WAR*)	4.2	104	22.6%*	8.2%*	0.87*	3.85*
Julio Urías ('23)	3.6	102	24.3%	6.6%	1.05	3.11
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17