Parker Messick — OGILVIE

Parker Messick P Cleveland Guardians

Age 26 LHP 6'0" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 4.2 · 2027

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 183 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7785vR 93

ERA3.28

FIP3.49

K%24.9%

BB%6.2%

K-BB%18.8%

ROS IP183

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 183 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$74M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL6055

CMD5560

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4894.4

Whiff%

p5125.5%

p7025.8%

xwOBA vs

p880.275

FB+3.2 (57%)

SL+2.4 (7%)

CH+2.2 (24%)

CT (4%)

SI (15%)

CU (8%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.233 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.9	$26M	+$25M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.9	$24M	+$23M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.6	$18M	+$18M
2030	Arb-1	$7M	+2.2	$14M	+$9M
2031	Arb-2	$11M	+1.6	$9M	+$2M
2032	Arb-3	$12M	+1.1	$6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$20M		$97M	+$76M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	122	520	136	39	11	92%	4.7	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	2.5%	3.77	3.91	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	122	520	136	39	11	92%	4.7	26.2%	7.5%	18.7%	2.1%	3.77	3.00	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	134	547	165	44	10	96%	5.0	23.8%	9.1%	14.8%	2.1%	2.83	3.36	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	134	547	165	44	10	96%	5.0	23.8%	9.1%	14.8%	2.1%	2.83	3.36	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	134	547	165	44	10	96%	5.0	30.2%	8.0%	22.1%	1.8%	2.83	2.59	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	138	574	157	48	13	100%	5.1	24.4%	7.6%	16.8%	2.3%	3.25	3.25	+2.8
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	138	574	157	48	13	100%	5.1	24.4%	7.6%	16.8%	2.3%	3.25	3.25	+2.8
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	138	574	157	48	13	100%	5.1	27.4%	8.4%	19.0%	2.3%	3.25	3.09	+3.1
2026	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	32	32	186	747	193	47	17	100%	5.8	25.8%	6.3%	19.5%	2.3%	2.56	2.97	+4.5
2026	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	32	32	186	747	193	47	17	100%	5.8	25.8%	6.3%	19.5%	2.3%	2.56	2.97	+4.5
2026	25	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	32	32	186	747	193	47	17	100%	5.8	25.8%	6.3%	19.5%	2.3%	2.56	2.97	+4.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			39	39	226	912	231	53	21	100%	5.8	25.3%	5.8%	19.5%	2.3%	2.59	2.97	+5.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CLE	30	30	183	773	193	48	19	100%	6.1	24.9%	6.2%	18.8%	2.4%	3.28	3.49	+3.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CLE	30	30	180	760	189	47	19	100%	6.0	24.9%	6.2%	18.7%	2.5%	3.43	3.53	+3.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	CLE	29	29	174	737	183	47	19	100%	6.0	24.8%	6.4%	18.4%	2.6%	3.54	3.61	+2.7
2030	29	MLB MLE	CLE	28	28	167	703	170	47	19	100%	6.0	24.2%	6.6%	17.6%	2.7%	3.68	3.77	+2.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	CLE	26	26	157	661	155	46	19	100%	6.0	23.5%	6.9%	16.6%	2.9%	3.86	3.98	+1.7
2032	31	MLB MLE	CLE	24	24	146	616	140	45	19	100%	6.1	22.8%	7.3%	15.5%	3.2%	4.07	4.21	+1.2
2033	32	MLB MLE	CLE	23	23	135	570	125	44	19	100%	5.9	22.0%	7.7%	14.3%	3.4%	4.31	4.47	+0.7
2034	33	MLB MLE	CLE	21	21	124	524	111	43	19	100%	5.9	21.1%	8.1%	13.0%	3.7%	4.57	4.75	+0.2
2035	34	MLB MLE	CLE	19	19	113	476	96	41	19	100%	5.9	20.2%	8.6%	11.6%	4.0%	4.86	5.05	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	CLE	28	28	171	722	180	45	18	100%	6.1	24.9%	6.2%	18.7%	2.5%	3.43	3.53	+2.9
2029	28	MLB CTX	CLE	28	28	166	701	174	45	18	100%	5.9	24.8%	6.4%	18.4%	2.6%	3.54	3.61	+2.6
2030	29	MLB CTX	CLE	26	26	158	667	162	44	18	100%	6.1	24.2%	6.6%	17.6%	2.7%	3.68	3.77	+2.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	CLE	25	25	149	629	148	44	18	100%	6.0	23.5%	6.9%	16.6%	2.9%	3.86	3.98	+1.6
2032	31	MLB CTX	CLE	23	23	139	587	134	43	18	100%	6.0	22.8%	7.3%	15.5%	3.1%	4.07	4.21	+1.1
2033	32	MLB CTX	CLE	21	21	128	540	119	41	18	100%	6.1	22.0%	7.7%	14.3%	3.4%	4.31	4.47	+0.6
2034	33	MLB CTX	CLE	20	20	118	498	105	40	18	100%	5.9	21.1%	8.1%	13.0%	3.7%	4.56	4.74	+0.2
2035	34	MLB CTX	CLE	17	17	102	431	87	37	17	100%	6.0	20.2%	8.6%	11.6%	4.0%	4.85	5.04	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		227	227	1357	5686	1338	392	166	100%	6.0	23.5%	6.9%	16.6%	2.9%	3.73	3.59	+21.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	838	197	58	24	100%	6.0	23.5%	6.9%	16.6%	2.9%	3.73	3.59	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		112	109	580	2388	567	186	54	97%	5.2	23.7%	7.8%	16.0%	2.3%	3.04	3.33	+16.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	38	200	823	195	64	19	97%	5.2	23.7%	7.8%	16.0%	2.3%	3.04	3.33	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Parker Messick (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.49	24.9%	6.2%	2.4%	—	3.63	24.7%	18.2%	521	+0.14	—	—	—
Adam Morgan L 2016 · 4.10 FIP	26	SP	4.10	19.9%	5.2%	3.7%	.315	3.66	24.3%	16.6%	151	-0.44	3.45	522	73
Glendon Rusch L 2001 · 3.69 FIP	26	SP	3.69	19.9%	5.2%	2.9%	.342	4.07	15.9%	8.6%	464	+0.38	3.34	1,472	72
Jonathan Sánchez L 2009 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP	3.94	24.9%	11.7%	2.7%	.269	4.30	22.5%	9.6%	359	+0.36	3.65	895	71
Roenis Elías L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	26	SP	4.32	17.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.299	3.98	17.7%	8.3%	251	-0.34	3.15	728	70
Erik Bedard L 2005 · 3.43 FIP	26	SP	3.43	20.6%	9.2%	1.7%	.311	3.38	24.3%	15.8%	459	-0.05	2.96	1,317	69
Matthew Boyd L 2017 · 4.24 FIP	26	SP	4.24	19.5%	7.9%	3.2%	.302	4.41	25.8%	18.9%	416	+0.17	2.22	1,457	68
Cole Ragans L 2024 · 2.89 FIP	26	SP	2.89	29.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.286	3.92	35.1%	24.6%	97	+1.03	2.48	623	68
Joey Lucchesi L 2019 · 3.98 FIP	26	SP	3.98	23.0%	8.2%	3.3%	.269	3.18	26.1%	19.1%	38	-0.80	3.12	817	65
Quinn Mathews L 2024 · 2.75 FIP	23	SP	2.75	27.9%	9.2%	1.5%	.267	4.31	23.1%	9.7%	242	+1.56	2.75	386	65
Cliff Lee L 2005 · 3.87 FIP	26	SP	3.87	17.1%	6.1%	2.6%	.277	3.80	16.6%	11.1%	521	-0.07	2.49	2,146	64
Francisco Liriano L 2010 · 2.52 FIP	26	SP	2.52	24.9%	7.2%	1.1%	.325	3.78	22.7%	11.5%	452	+1.26	2.43	1,814	64
Eduardo Rodriguez L 2019 · 3.66 FIP	26	SP	3.66	24.8%	8.5%	2.9%	.311	3.50	24.9%	17.5%	264	-0.16	3.25	1,596	63
Wade Miley L 2013 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP	3.91	17.4%	7.3%	2.5%	.292	3.86	19.4%	11.7%	561	-0.05	3.12	1,805	63
Wei-Yin Chen L 2012 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP	4.15	18.8%	7.0%	3.2%	.272	3.78	18.4%	13.2%	514	-0.37	3.63	1,065	63
Sean Manaea L 2018 · 4.24 FIP	26	SP	4.24	16.5%	4.7%	3.5%	.243	3.58	25.9%	20.7%	291	-0.66	3.28	1,511	62
Nick Lodolo L 2024 · 3.30 FIP	26	SP	3.30	24.7%	7.5%	2.4%	.274	4.02	21.4%	14.7%	265	+0.72	1.54	562	62
Hyun Jin Ryu L 2013 · 3.18 FIP	26	SP	3.18	19.7%	5.7%	1.8%	.293	2.61	21.3%	17.3%	170	-0.57	2.45	1,069	61
Odalis Perez L 2003 · 4.24 FIP	26	SP	4.24	18.3%	5.4%	3.6%	.291	4.17	15.7%	10.4%	431	-0.07	3.40	1,324	61
Alex Wood L 2017 · 2.97 FIP	26	SP	2.97	24.6%	5.2%	2.3%	.260	3.68	21.0%	15.3%	200	+0.71	2.66	1,258	61
Tyler Anderson L 2016 · 3.30 FIP	26	SP	3.30	20.2%	5.9%	2.1%	.310	4.28	22.3%	14.4%	295	+0.98	3.10	1,288	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.0	146	23.7%	6.9%	1.11	3.70
Pablo López ('25)	4.8	121	24.9%	6.3%	1.07	3.81
Lance Lynn ('24)	10.0	154	23.7%	8.3%	1.04	3.74
Johan Santana ('12)	10.1	169	24.1%	6.9%	0.98	3.20
Chris Archer ('22)	6.8	151	25.4%	8.3%	1.09	3.93
David Price ('22)	10.7	165	23.6%	6.4%	0.93	3.32
Jake Odorizzi ('22)	6.3	139	22.2%	8.1%	1.23	3.99