Matthew Boyd
P
Chicago Cubs
+0.9
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 35
LHP
6'3" / 223 lbs
MLB
Svc 11.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 1.8 · 2027
ERA3.86
FIP3.97
xFIP1.83
SIERA1.95
K%22.3%
BB%6.5%
K-BB%15.8%
IP144
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.8peak
2027
K†5060
FB Velo
p2592.7
Whiff%
p9039.4%
K%
p9039.3%
xwOBA vs
p550.307
CH+1.5 (29%)
SL+0.6 (12%)
CU (8%)
FB-1.0 (52%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 32 | 31 | 172 | 687 | 151 | 47 | 25 | 19.4% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 3.61 | 4.56 | +1.4 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 31 | 29 | 161 | 671 | 139 | 46 | 22 | 19.7% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 3.63 | 4.20 | +2.0 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 34 | 33 | 186 | 804 | 163 | 63 | 25 | 19.5% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.14 | +2.5 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 31 | 31 | 170 | 709 | 159 | 51 | 27 | 22.4% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 4.39 | 4.33 | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 32 | 32 | 185 | 788 | 238 | 49 | 39 | 30.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.56 | 4.22 | +2.3 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 12 | 12 | 60 | 271 | 60 | 22 | 15 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 6.71 | 5.40 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 18 | 18 | 88 | 368 | 78 | 23 | 9 | 19.9% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 3.48 | 3.80 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 16 | 0 | 21 | 82 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 24.5% | 9.4% | 0.0% | 1.69 | 2.22 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 15 | 15 | 71 | 303 | 73 | 25 | 11 | 24.1% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 5.45 | 4.21 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 13 | 13 | 61 | 243 | 73 | 15 | 4 | 27.7% | 7.8% | 2.2% | 2.05 | 2.97 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 31 | 31 | 180 | 718 | 154 | 42 | 19 | 21.4% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 3.21 | 3.54 | +3.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 3 | 3 | 13 | 53 | 23 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 6.92 | — | — |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | CHC | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 52 | 16 | 7 | 21.4% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 3.81 | 4.06 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 35 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 71 | 296 | 75 | 20 | 8 | 25.3% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 4.38 | 3.31 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 21 | 21 | 116 | 491 | 120 | 34 | 14 | 24.4% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 3.75 | 3.91 | +1.8 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | CHC | 18 | 18 | 100 | 423 | 100 | 31 | 13 | 23.6% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 3.95 | 4.09 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 86 | 362 | 83 | 27 | 12 | 22.8% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 4.14 | 4.27 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 39 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 73 | 310 | 74 | 22 | 10 | 23.9% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 4.17 | 4.19 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 40 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 63 | 265 | 61 | 19 | 9 | 23.1% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 4.29 | 4.38 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 268 | 248 | 1370 | 5697 | 1290 | 405 | 208 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 4.07 | 4.09 | +18.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 36 | 200 | 832 | 188 | 59 | 30 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 4.07 | 4.09 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matthew Boyd (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.06 | 21.4% | 6.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.07 | 23.7% | 16.5% | 302 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.73 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73 | 109 | 48 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2025 · 3.59 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.59 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 1.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 119 | 48 |
| Daniel Rodriguez L 2025 · 4.77 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.77 | 20.8% | 7.8% | 4.5% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 391 | 48 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.59 | 13.9% | 6.9% | 1.5% | .310 | 3.68 | 12.1% | 5.1% | 220 | +0.09 | 3.59 | 444 | 48 |
| Orlando Lara L 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.07 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 426 | 47 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 101 | 45 |
| Neal Cotts L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 45 |
| David Price L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.65 | 17.8% | 7.4% | 2.0% | .301 | 3.67 | 22.2% | 18.0% | 40 | +0.02 | 2.58 | 922 | 45 |
| Phil Coke L 2025 · 3.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.04 | 18.0% | 6.7% | 1.1% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 101 | 44 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 149 | 44 |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.86 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 154 | 44 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.33 | 10.3% | 5.4% | 2.6% | .342 | 5.45 | 12.2% | 5.4% | 117 | +1.12 | 4.33 | 445 | 44 |
| Cesár Ramos L 2024 · 4.24 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.24 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 2.7% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 225 | 43 |
| Francisco Liriano L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.34 | 20.9% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 650 | 43 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2024 · 4.23 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.23 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 146 | 42 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.42 | 17.2% | 6.7% | 1.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 117 | 41 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2027 · 3.35 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.35 | 9.6% | 3.7% | 1.1% | .333 | 4.27 | 7.6% | 2.5% | 97 | +0.92 | 3.35 | 199 | 41 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.51 | 15.0% | 4.6% | 2.0% | .312 | 4.42 | 11.7% | 3.3% | 58 | +0.91 | 3.51 | 138 | 40 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.28 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 1.6% | .255 | 3.38 | 26.7% | 18.4% | 22 | +0.10 | 2.57 | 109 | 40 |
| Chris Narveson L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.63 | 12.2% | 10.4% | 2.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.62 | 249 | 40 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2015
Service 11.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2028
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $17M | +0.9 | $4M | -$13M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $15M | +1.8 | $15M | -$0.2M |
| Totals | $32M | $18M | -$14M | ||