Matthew Boyd
P
Chicago Cubs
Age 35
LHP
6'3" / 223 lbs
MLB
Svc 9.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 2.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 92102vR 111
ERA3.48
FIP3.59
K%22.5%
BB%6.3%
K-BB%16.2%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2592.7
Whiff%
p7429.1%
K%
p6024.0%
xwOBA vs
p260.340
CH+1.5 (27%)
SL+0.6 (15%)
CU (9%)
FB-1.0 (48%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 31 | 172 | 687 | 151 | 47 | 25 | 97% | 5.4 | 19.4% | 7.2% | 12.2% | 4.1% | 3.61 | 4.62 | +1.6 |
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 31 | 172 | 687 | 151 | 47 | 25 | 97% | 5.4 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 15.1% | 3.6% | 3.61 | 4.05 | +2.7 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 29 | 161 | 671 | 139 | 46 | 22 | 94% | 5.2 | 19.7% | 7.0% | 12.7% | 3.8% | 3.63 | 4.40 | +1.9 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 29 | 161 | 671 | 139 | 46 | 22 | 94% | 5.2 | 20.7% | 6.9% | 13.9% | 3.3% | 3.63 | 4.00 | +2.6 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 33 | 186 | 804 | 163 | 63 | 25 | 97% | 5.5 | 19.5% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.28 | +2.4 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 33 | 186 | 804 | 163 | 63 | 25 | 97% | 5.5 | 20.3% | 7.8% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.11 | +2.8 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 31 | 31 | 170 | 709 | 159 | 51 | 27 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.4% | 7.2% | 15.2% | 4.2% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +2.0 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 31 | 31 | 170 | 709 | 159 | 51 | 27 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.4% | 7.2% | 15.2% | 3.8% | 4.39 | 4.19 | +2.4 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 32 | 32 | 185 | 788 | 238 | 49 | 39 | 100% | 5.8 | 30.2% | 6.2% | 24.0% | 5.4% | 4.56 | 4.31 | +2.4 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 32 | 32 | 185 | 788 | 238 | 49 | 39 | 100% | 5.8 | 30.2% | 6.2% | 24.0% | 4.9% | 4.56 | 4.06 | +2.9 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 12 | 12 | 60 | 271 | 60 | 22 | 15 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 14.0% | 6.0% | 6.71 | 5.58 | -0.7 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 12 | 12 | 60 | 271 | 60 | 22 | 15 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 14.0% | 5.5% | 6.71 | 5.44 | -0.6 |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 88 | 368 | 78 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 4.9 | 19.9% | 6.8% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 3.48 | 3.89 | +1.3 |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 88 | 368 | 78 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.2% | 6.2% | 14.9% | 2.4% | 3.48 | 3.44 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 21 | 82 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.5% | 9.4% | 15.1% | 0.0% | 1.69 | 2.22 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 21 | 82 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 32.9% | 6.1% | 26.8% | 1.2% | 1.69 | 1.88 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 15 | 15 | 71 | 303 | 73 | 25 | 11 | 100% | 4.7 | 24.1% | 8.3% | 15.8% | 4.0% | 5.45 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 15 | 15 | 71 | 303 | 73 | 25 | 11 | 100% | 4.7 | 24.1% | 8.3% | 15.8% | 3.6% | 5.45 | 4.11 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 4 levels | 13 | 13 | 61 | 243 | 73 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 4.7 | 27.7% | 7.8% | 19.9% | 2.4% | 2.05 | 3.08 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 4 levels | 13 | 13 | 61 | 243 | 73 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 4.7 | 30.0% | 6.2% | 23.9% | 1.6% | 2.05 | 2.30 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 31 | 31 | 180 | 718 | 154 | 42 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.4% | 5.8% | 15.6% | 2.6% | 3.21 | 3.45 | +4.1 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 31 | 31 | 180 | 718 | 154 | 42 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.4% | 5.8% | 15.6% | 2.6% | 3.21 | 3.46 | +4.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 13 | 13 | 63 | 265 | 67 | 16 | 8 | 100% | 4.8 | 23.3% | 6.4% | 16.8% | 3.3% | 4.74 | 3.76 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 62 | 17 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.5% | 6.3% | 16.2% | 2.9% | 3.48 | 3.59 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 62 | 17 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.5% | 6.3% | 16.2% | 2.9% | 3.50 | 3.61 | +0.8 |
| 2026 TOT | 35 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 127 | 539 | 129 | 33 | 16 | — | — | 23.9% | 6.2% | 17.7% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 3.68 | +2.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 35 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 111 | 468 | 129 | 33 | 16 | — | — | 27.5% | 7.1% | 20.4% | 3.4% | 4.73 | 3.56 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 22 | 22 | 130 | 549 | 119 | 38 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 14.6% | 3.1% | 4.03 | 4.22 | +1.8 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 19 | 113 | 479 | 98 | 37 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 12.9% | 3.5% | 4.39 | 4.63 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 98 | 412 | 80 | 34 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 3.9% | 4.79 | 5.06 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 39 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 84 | 354 | 65 | 32 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.2% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 5.21 | 5.49 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 22 | 22 | 130 | 549 | 119 | 38 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 14.6% | 3.1% | 4.05 | 4.24 | +1.8 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 98 | 36 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 12.9% | 3.5% | 4.41 | 4.65 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 98 | 414 | 80 | 35 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 4.82 | 5.09 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 39 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 65 | 32 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.2% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 5.24 | 5.52 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 306 | 292 | 1624 | 6877 | 1515 | 501 | 255 | 95% | 5.3 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 14.7% | 3.7% | 4.53 | 4.20 | +22.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 36 | 200 | 847 | 187 | 62 | 31 | 95% | 5.3 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 14.7% | 3.7% | 4.53 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 278 | 258 | 1419 | 5909 | 1328 | 418 | 225 | 93% | 5.1 | 22.5% | 7.1% | 15.4% | 3.8% | 4.08 | 4.18 | +20.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 36 | 200 | 833 | 187 | 59 | 32 | 93% | 5.1 | 22.5% | 7.1% | 15.4% | 3.8% | 4.08 | 4.18 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matthew Boyd (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.94 | 21.8% | 6.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.60 | 20.6% | 13.0% | 341 | +0.66 | — | — | — |
| Jon Lester L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.96 | 21.6% | 6.8% | 3.3% | .344 | 5.00 | 14.9% | 7.4% | 202 | +1.04 | 2.74 | 1,144 | 63 |
| CC Sabathia L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.30 | 18.9% | 6.5% | 3.6% | .311 | 3.96 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 481 | -0.34 | 3.75 | 756 | 61 |
| Cole Hamels L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.75 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 893 | 58 |
| Orlando Lara L 2025 · 4.05 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.05 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 3.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 426 | 58 |
| C.J. Wilson L 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 2.4% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 132 | 58 |
| Daniel Rodriguez L 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.74 | 20.8% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 391 | 58 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.34 | 17.3% | 10.1% | 2.6% | .315 | 4.01 | 19.9% | 11.2% | 107 | -0.33 | 3.68 | 405 | 58 |
| Randy Wolf L 2029 · 3.43 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.43 | 16.6% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 174 | 57 |
| J.A. Happ L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.64 | 26.3% | 7.0% | 3.4% | .266 | 4.80 | 19.7% | 12.5% | 363 | +1.16 | 3.28 | 1,053 | 56 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 55 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.68 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 119 | 55 |
| Eric Stults L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.25 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 138 | 54 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.57 | 13.9% | 6.9% | 1.4% | .310 | 3.70 | 12.1% | 5.1% | 220 | +0.13 | 3.57 | 444 | 50 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 49 |
| Barry Zito L 2028 · 4.80 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.80 | 13.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 138 | 47 |
| Andrew Albers L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.45 | 16.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 508 | 47 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2024 · 4.11 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.11 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 146 | 44 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.24 | 10.3% | 5.4% | 2.4% | .342 | 5.22 | 12.2% | 5.4% | 117 | +0.98 | 4.24 | 445 | 43 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2028 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.15 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 43 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2027 · 3.28 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.28 | 9.6% | 3.7% | 0.9% | .333 | 4.32 | 7.6% | 2.5% | 97 | +1.04 | 3.28 | 199 | 41 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 114 | 20.6% | 7.5% | 1.32 | 4.35 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Jerad Eickhoff ('19) | 4 | 109 | 21.0% | 6.9% | 1.43 | 4.12 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |
| CC Sabathia ('19) CYAS×6HOF | 5 | 151 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 1.39 | 4.14 |