Joey Lucchesi

P Salt Lake Bees

Age 34 LHP 6'5" / 228 lbs AAA peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	31	MIX2 levels	29	19	125	4.74	4.70	17.1%	11.8%	1.0	K 14.9% · BB 10.1% · FIP 4.73
2025	32	MIX2 levels	58	0	69	3.52	3.59	21.8%	6.3%	0.8	K 20.3% · BB 6.1% · FIP 3.90
2026	33	MIX2 levels	25	0	37	4.17	3.40	29.7%	11.5%	0.5	K 27.4% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.12
2027PROJ	34	MLBLAA	7	7	48	4.11	4.29	21.1%	7.9%	0.6
2028PROJ	35	MLBLAA	7	7	43	4.42	4.63	20.2%	8.5%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.3 · Next 2 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsLuke Westphal (age 33) · John Bale (age 34) · Alejandro Soto (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98107vR 115

ERA4.11

FIP4.29

K%21.1%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%13.2%

Proj IP48

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	23	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	1	0	2	11	3	1	0	0%	2.0	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.95	—
2016	23	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	1	0	2	11	3	1	0	0%	2.0	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.60	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	139	549	148	33	12	96%	5.8	21.1%	6.8%	14.4%	2.9%	2.20	3.78	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	139	549	148	33	12	96%	5.8	27.0%	6.0%	20.9%	2.2%	2.20	2.81	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	137	579	153	45	24	100%	4.9	26.5%	7.5%	19.0%	4.1%	4.35	4.06	+2.2
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	137	579	153	45	24	100%	4.9	26.4%	7.8%	18.7%	4.1%	4.35	4.13	+2.1
2019	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	30	30	164	686	158	56	23	100%	5.5	23.0%	8.2%	14.9%	3.3%	4.18	3.98	+2.8
2019	26	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	30	30	164	686	158	56	23	100%	5.5	23.0%	8.2%	14.9%	3.4%	4.18	4.02	+2.7
2020	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	3	2	6	32	5	2	0	67%	1.9	15.6%	6.2%	9.4%	0.0%	7.94	2.57	+0.2
2020	27	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	3	2	6	32	5	2	0	67%	1.9	15.6%	6.2%	9.4%	0.0%	7.94	2.39	+0.2
2021	28	MLB MLE	New York Mets	11	8	38	157	41	11	4	73%	3.5	26.1%	7.0%	19.1%	2.6%	4.46	3.18	+1.0
2021	28	MLB RAW	New York Mets	11	8	38	157	41	11	4	73%	3.5	26.1%	7.0%	19.1%	2.5%	4.46	3.18	+1.0
2022	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	4	13	53	12	3	0	50%	1.6	22.6%	5.7%	17.0%	0.0%	2.13	1.91	—
2022	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	8	4	13	53	12	3	0	50%	1.6	22.6%	5.7%	17.0%	0.0%	2.13	1.92	—
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	136	575	115	58	16	96%	5.2	17.7%	9.6%	8.1%	3.2%	3.89	4.55	+1.4
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	25	136	575	115	58	16	96%	5.2	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	2.8%	3.89	4.21	+1.9
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	19	125	543	93	64	15	66%	4.3	14.9%	10.1%	4.7%	2.9%	4.74	4.73	+1.0
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	19	125	543	93	64	15	66%	4.3	14.9%	10.1%	4.7%	2.9%	4.74	4.73	+1.0
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	19	125	543	93	64	15	66%	4.3	17.1%	11.8%	5.3%	2.8%	4.74	4.70	+1.0
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	69	284	62	18	8	0%	1.2	20.3%	6.1%	14.2%	3.2%	3.52	3.90	+0.5
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	69	284	62	18	8	0%	1.2	20.3%	6.1%	14.2%	3.2%	3.52	3.90	+0.5
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	0	69	284	62	18	8	0%	1.2	21.8%	6.3%	15.5%	2.8%	3.52	3.59	+0.8
2026	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	37	165	49	19	4	0%	1.5	27.4%	8.3%	19.1%	2.3%	4.17	3.12	+0.6
2026	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	37	165	49	19	4	0%	1.5	27.4%	8.3%	19.1%	2.3%	4.17	3.12	+0.6
2026	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	37	165	49	19	4	0%	1.5	29.7%	11.5%	18.2%	2.4%	4.17	3.40	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			124	77	436	1853	423	152	60	62%	3.5	22.8%	8.2%	14.6%	3.2%	4.15	3.99	+7.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	LAA	7	7	48	203	43	16	6	100%	6.9	21.1%	7.9%	13.2%	2.9%	4.11	4.29	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	LAA	7	7	43	180	36	15	6	100%	6.1	20.2%	8.5%	11.7%	3.2%	4.42	4.63	+0.4
2028	35	MLB CTX	LAA	7	7	43	182	37	15	6	100%	6.1	20.2%	8.5%	11.7%	3.2%	4.42	4.63	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		131	84	479	2033	459	167	66	64%	3.7	22.6%	8.2%	14.4%	3.2%	4.17	4.01	+7.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		55	35	200	849	192	70	28	64%	3.7	22.6%	8.2%	14.4%	3.2%	4.17	4.01	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		243	139	865	3634	774	295	113	57%	3.6	21.3%	8.1%	13.2%	3.1%	3.87	4.04	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	32	200	840	179	68	26	57%	3.6	21.3%	8.1%	13.2%	3.1%	3.87	4.04	+3.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 33 IPFIP 2.74 → 3.12 (+0.38)K% 31.9% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.91%	—	×0.860	27.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.22%	—	×0.900	8.30%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.34%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.74 → 3.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASacramento River Cats · 31 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.04 (+0.55)K% 26.1% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.05%	—	×0.860	22.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×0.900	5.29%
HR / BF /BF	3.36%	÷0.938	×1.100	3.94%

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASyracuse Mets · 115 IPFIP 4.61 → 4.73 (+0.12)K% 17.3% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.30%	—	×0.860	14.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.27%	—	×0.900	10.14%
HR / BF /BF	2.82%	÷1.059	×1.100	2.93%

Result: FIP 4.61 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASyracuse Mets · 82 IPFIP 4.58 → 4.88 (+0.29)K% 21.4% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.43%	—	×0.860	18.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.14%	—	×0.900	10.03%
HR / BF /BF	3.43%	÷1.003	×1.100	3.76%

Result: FIP 4.58 → 4.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 8 IPFIP 1.69 → 2.34 (+0.64)K% 26.7% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.67%	—	×0.770	20.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.150	7.67%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.054	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 1.69 → 2.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASyracuse Mets · 5 IPFIP 2.47 → 2.65 (+0.18)K% 15.0% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.00%	—	×0.880	13.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.00%	—	×1.050	5.25%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.033	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 2.47 → 2.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 79 IPFIP 2.88 → 4.16 (+1.27)K% 30.4% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.45%	—	×0.770	23.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.09%	—	×1.150	7.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.88%	÷0.921	×1.250	3.92%

Result: FIP 2.88 → 4.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AASan Antonio Missions · 60 IPFIP 2.65 → 3.28 (+0.63)K% 22.4% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.36%	—	×0.810	18.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.91%	—	×1.100	6.50%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷0.940	×1.200	1.62%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 2.65 → 3.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joey Lucchesi (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.63	20.2%	11.7%	43	+0.34	—	—	—
Luke Westphal L 2022 · 4.35 FIP	33	SW	4.35	24.2%	13.4%	2.9%	.302	5.19	15.7%	-0.7%	26	+0.84	2.97	294	58
John Bale L 2008 · 3.22 FIP	34	SW	3.22	12.7%	5.5%	0.9%	.315	4.31	17.6%	5.8%	28	+1.09	2.49	168	53
Alejandro Soto L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	33	SW	4.03	17.1%	6.9%	2.7%	.376	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	280	51
Chris Narveson L 2016 · 4.59 FIP	34	SP-	4.59	16.2%	8.5%	3.2%	.253	4.59	12.2%	1.8%	103	+0.00	4.00	625	50
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	146	49
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	48
Hisanori Takahashi L 2010 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	22.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.292	3.81	21.1%	15.0%	118	+0.31	3.50	240	47
Tomas Solis L 2017 · 5.48 FIP	34	SP	5.48	11.3%	7.9%	4.2%	.322	6.44	8.9%	1.4%	57	+0.96	4.20	327	47
James Jones L 2023 · 4.67 FIP	34	SU	4.67	13.7%	11.5%	2.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	127	45
Francisley Bueno L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	14.8%	7.1%	1.9%	.315	3.99	13.3%	6.6%	110	+0.22	2.43	188	45
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	43
Orlando Lara L 2019 · 4.09 FIP	34	SP	4.09	22.0%	7.8%	3.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	426	43
Carlos Pulido L 2004 · 4.41 FIP	32	SU	4.41	16.4%	5.5%	3.6%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	2.91	111	40
Brandon Mann L 2018 · 3.59 FIP	34	SU	3.59	17.8%	11.4%	1.0%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	190	39
Daniel Rodriguez L 2019 · 4.77 FIP	34	SP	4.77	20.8%	7.8%	4.5%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	391	38
Marlon Arias L 2019 · 4.83 FIP	34	SP	4.83	19.8%	11.2%	3.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	154	38
Ryan Buchter L 2021 · 5.24 FIP	34	SU	5.24	22.9%	13.2%	4.4%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	296	38
Brady Feigl L 2024 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	23.7%	4.7%	4.4%	.312	3.70	22.2%	14.9%	14	-0.42	2.69	212	36
Clay Rapada L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	34	SU	3.84	14.3%	8.0%	1.7%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	120	35
Pedro Borbón L 2002 · 4.57 FIP	34	SU	4.57	21.6%	7.3%	4.3%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	2.26	264	35

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	75	22.5%	8.3%	1.24	4.16
Roy Lee Jackson ('77-'86, 5 WAR*)	2.8	70	21.9%*	8.6%*	1.09*	3.99*
Tom Walker ('72-'77, 1 WAR*)	2.1	83	20.9%*	7.5%*	1.28*	4.32*
Zach McAllister ('23)	3.0	85	21.1%	7.8%	1.07	4.15
Manny Sarmiento ('76-'83, 4 WAR*)	2.6	86	18.9%*	8.1%*	1.20*	4.00*
Randall Delgado ('18)	2.7	78	20.1%	8.8%	1.11	4.10
Brett Cecil ('18)	3.8	76	20.7%	8.3%	1.14	4.29