Joey Lucchesi
P
Salt Lake Bees
Age 33
LHP
6'5" / 228 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION30 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.43
FIP4.90
xFIP9.04
SIERA6.99
K%16.5%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%7.5%
IP30
K†4040
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
SI (51%)
CU (27%)
CH (34%)
FB-1.8 (66%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 27.3% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.95 | +0.1 |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 24 | 23 | 139 | 549 | 148 | 33 | 12 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 2.20 | 3.92 | +2.4 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 28 | 28 | 137 | 579 | 153 | 45 | 24 | 26.5% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 4.35 | 4.29 | +1.8 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 30 | 30 | 164 | 686 | 158 | 56 | 23 | 23.0% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 4.18 | 4.17 | +2.4 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 3 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 15.6% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 7.94 | 2.57 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | New York Mets | 11 | 8 | 38 | 157 | 41 | 11 | 4 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 4.46 | 3.19 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 8 | 4 | 13 | 53 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 22.6% | 5.7% | 0.0% | 2.13 | 1.91 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 26 | 25 | 136 | 575 | 115 | 58 | 16 | 18.0% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 3.89 | 4.66 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 29 | 19 | 125 | 543 | 93 | 64 | 15 | 15.2% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.74 | 4.83 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 58 | 0 | 69 | 284 | 62 | 18 | 8 | 20.5% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 3.52 | 4.00 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 20 | 0 | 27 | 126 | 35 | 16 | 3 | 26.7% | 10.3% | 2.2% | 4.73 | 3.33 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | LAA | 27 | — | 27 | 113 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 16.5% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 54 | 239 | 54 | 26 | 6 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 28 | — | 28 | 116 | 18 | 12 | 4 | 15.6% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 5.05 | 5.36 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 238 | 139 | 855 | 3595 | 766 | 310 | 118 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 3.88 | 4.19 | +12.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 33 | 200 | 841 | 179 | 72 | 28 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 3.88 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joey Lucchesi (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.90 | 16.5% | 9.0% | 3.0% | — | 5.36 | 15.6% | 5.0% | 28 | +0.46 | — | — | — |
| Craig Breslow L 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.86 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.35 | 4.22 | 159 | 77 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.79 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 4.03 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.24 | 3.39 | 138 | 76 |
| Phil Coke L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 76 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.51 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 3.0% | .286 | 3.60 | 17.8% | 6.4% | 52 | -0.91 | 3.60 | 190 | 75 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2024 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 75 |
| Dan Runzler L 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.45 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.6% | .325 | 4.79 | 16.0% | 3.0% | 27 | +0.34 | 3.77 | 127 | 73 |
| Franklin Morales L 2024 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.06 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 101 | 73 |
| Neal Cotts L 2028 · 4.65 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 4.01 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.64 | 3.24 | 156 | 71 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.97 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 280 | 70 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.89 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.5% | .316 | 6.84 | 18.4% | 12.3% | 21 | +2.95 | 3.19 | 564 | 69 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.24 | 14.8% | 13.2% | 3.1% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 181 | 69 |
| Josh Outman L 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.26 | 12.7% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .322 | 6.40 | 12.9% | -5.6% | 34 | +1.14 | 4.70 | 106 | 68 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.87 | 15.2% | 7.0% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 159 | 68 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2024 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.13 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 2.0% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 145 | 68 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.25 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 3.8% | .304 | 3.85 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 152 | -0.40 | 1.67 | 421 | 67 |
| David Huff L 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.00 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 158 | 67 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.72 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 5.8% | .320 | 3.38 | 24.4% | 15.6% | 97 | -2.34 | 2.18 | 195 | 67 |
| Enrique Lechuga L 2024 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.90 | 10.5% | 6.1% | 1.7% | .390 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 137 | 66 |
| Chris Narveson L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.83 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.57 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.26 | 4.40 | 249 | 66 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.96 | 22.4% | 12.9% | 2.1% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94 | 245 | 65 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.