Joey Lucchesi
P
Los Angeles Angels
+0.0
WAR
Age 33
LHP
6'5" / 228 lbs
MLB
ERA4.09
FIP4.63
xFIP9.04
SIERA6.99
K%19.2%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%10.2%
IP30
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†4040
FB Velo
p2692.8
Whiff%
p1019.6%
K%
p2718.8%
xwOBA vs
p700.293
SI (51%)
CU (27%)
CH (34%)
FB-1.8 (66%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 24 | 23 | 139 | 549 | 148 | 33 | 12 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 2.20 | 3.80 | +2.4 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 28 | 28 | 137 | 579 | 153 | 45 | 24 | 26.5% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 4.35 | 4.09 | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 30 | 30 | 164 | 686 | 158 | 56 | 23 | 23.0% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.18 | 4.02 | +2.4 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 3 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 7.94 | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | New York Mets | 11 | 8 | 38 | 157 | 41 | 11 | 4 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 4.46 | 3.19 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 8 | 4 | 13 | 53 | 12 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.13 | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 26 | 25 | 136 | 575 | 115 | 58 | 16 | 18.0% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 3.89 | 4.65 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 29 | 19 | 125 | 543 | 93 | 64 | 15 | 15.2% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.94 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 58 | 0 | 69 | 284 | 62 | 18 | 8 | 20.5% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 3.52 | 3.85 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 5 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 8 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.26 | — | — |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | SD | 28 | — | 28 | 118 | 20 | 11 | 4 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 4.80 | +0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | SD | — | — | 34 | 149 | 28 | 16 | 4 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 2.4% | 4.13 | 3.91 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | SD | 29 | — | 29 | 121 | 20 | 11 | 4 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.61 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 223 | 139 | 835 | 3500 | 741 | 302 | 110 | 21.2% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 3.86 | 4.13 | +11.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 33 | 200 | 838 | 177 | 72 | 26 | 21.2% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 3.86 | 4.13 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joey Lucchesi (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.80 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.94 | 16.6% | 7.4% | 29 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Phil Coke L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 78 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.27 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 77 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.78 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 3.99 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.21 | 3.51 | 138 | 77 |
| Zach Phillips L 2025 · 3.67 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.67 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 202 | 74 |
| Franklin Morales L 2024 · 4.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.03 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 101 | 74 |
| Dan Runzler L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.14 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .325 | 4.83 | 16.0% | 3.0% | 27 | +0.69 | 3.78 | 127 | 74 |
| Craig Breslow L 2027 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 74 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.27 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 2.6% | .286 | 3.59 | 17.8% | 6.4% | 52 | -0.68 | 3.59 | 190 | 71 |
| Neal Cotts L 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 71 |
| Colt Hynes L 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.79 | 14.1% | 4.6% | 2.4% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 152 | 70 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.19 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 3.7% | .304 | 3.80 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 152 | -0.39 | 1.81 | 421 | 70 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.39 | 14.8% | 13.2% | 3.4% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 181 | 69 |
| Grant Dayton L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.01 | 23.0% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .325 | 3.79 | 23.2% | 13.5% | 49 | -0.22 | 1.69 | 277 | 69 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2025 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.97 | 15.2% | 7.0% | 4.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 159 | 69 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 5.86 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.86 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 6.1% | .320 | 3.43 | 24.4% | 15.6% | 97 | -2.43 | 2.19 | 195 | 69 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.97 | 22.4% | 12.9% | 2.1% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 245 | 68 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.03 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 280 | 67 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.08 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 145 | 67 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.12 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.9% | .316 | 6.64 | 18.4% | 12.3% | 21 | +2.52 | 3.14 | 564 | 67 |
| Chris Narveson L 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.81 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.63 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.18 | 4.62 | 249 | 67 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.