Hyun Jin Ryu
P
Toronto Blue Jays
Age 39
LHP
6'3" / 250 lbs
MLB
Svc 13.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 1.6 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 175 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 96106vR 115
ERA4.26
FIP4.57
K%20.3%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%11.7%
ROS IP175
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 175 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1088.7
Whiff%
p2021.1%
K%
p1417.0%
xwOBA vs
p580.304
CT+1.8
FB+1.1
CH-4.2
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 9 | 9 | 32 | 140 | 27 | 2 | 5 | 100% | 3.6 | 15.2% | 1.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | 5.29 | 3.94 | +0.2 |
| 2016 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 9 | 9 | 32 | 140 | 27 | 2 | 5 | 100% | 3.6 | 19.3% | 1.4% | 17.9% | 3.6% | 5.29 | 3.63 | +0.3 |
| 2017 | 30 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 25 | 24 | 127 | 541 | 116 | 42 | 22 | 96% | 5.1 | 21.4% | 7.8% | 13.7% | 4.3% | 3.77 | 4.63 | +1.1 |
| 2017 | 30 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 25 | 24 | 127 | 541 | 116 | 42 | 22 | 96% | 5.1 | 21.4% | 7.8% | 13.7% | 4.1% | 3.77 | 4.52 | +1.3 |
| 2018 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 17 | 91 | 357 | 96 | 14 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 27.5% | 4.3% | 23.1% | 2.9% | 1.87 | 2.94 | +2.4 |
| 2018 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 17 | 91 | 357 | 96 | 14 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 26.9% | 3.9% | 23.0% | 2.5% | 1.87 | 2.74 | +2.6 |
| 2019 | 32 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 29 | 29 | 183 | 723 | 163 | 22 | 17 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.5% | 3.0% | 19.5% | 2.5% | 2.32 | 2.95 | +5.2 |
| 2019 | 32 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 29 | 29 | 183 | 723 | 163 | 22 | 17 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.5% | 3.0% | 19.5% | 2.4% | 2.32 | 2.89 | +5.4 |
| 2020 | 33 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 12 | 12 | 67 | 275 | 72 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 26.2% | 6.2% | 20.0% | 2.2% | 2.69 | 2.87 | +1.4 |
| 2020 | 33 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 12 | 12 | 67 | 275 | 72 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 26.2% | 6.2% | 20.0% | 2.2% | 2.69 | 2.88 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 31 | 31 | 169 | 701 | 143 | 37 | 24 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.4% | 5.3% | 15.1% | 3.4% | 4.37 | 3.93 | +2.9 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 31 | 31 | 169 | 701 | 143 | 37 | 24 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.4% | 5.3% | 15.1% | 3.4% | 4.37 | 3.91 | +2.9 |
| 2022 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 31 | 131 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 100% | 4.4 | 14.2% | 3.5% | 10.6% | 4.4% | 5.52 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 31 | 131 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 100% | 4.4 | 16.8% | 3.1% | 13.7% | 4.6% | 5.52 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 36 | MIX | 4 levels | 15 | 15 | 70 | 289 | 54 | 15 | 12 | 100% | 4.7 | 17.0% | 6.2% | 10.7% | 4.0% | 3.09 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 36 | MIX | 4 levels | 15 | 15 | 70 | 289 | 54 | 15 | 12 | 100% | 4.7 | 18.7% | 5.2% | 13.5% | 4.2% | 3.09 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 39 | MLB | TOR | 27 | 27 | 163 | 687 | 139 | 59 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 4.26 | 4.57 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | TOR | 23 | 23 | 140 | 591 | 113 | 55 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 4.70 | 5.00 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 41 | MLB | TOR | 20 | 20 | 120 | 508 | 91 | 51 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.0% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 5.14 | 5.43 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 42 | MLB | TOR | 17 | 17 | 104 | 437 | 74 | 47 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.8% | 10.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.58 | 5.87 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | TOR | 23 | 23 | 140 | 591 | 113 | 55 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 4.70 | 5.00 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 41 | MLB | TOR | 20 | 20 | 120 | 507 | 91 | 50 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.0% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 5.14 | 5.43 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 42 | MLB | TOR | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 74 | 47 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.8% | 10.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.58 | 5.87 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 191 | 190 | 1075 | 4461 | 919 | 303 | 154 | 99% | 5.6 | 20.6% | 6.8% | 13.8% | 3.5% | 3.93 | 4.12 | +16.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 830 | 171 | 56 | 29 | 99% | 5.6 | 20.6% | 6.8% | 13.8% | 3.5% | 3.93 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 145 | 144 | 770 | 3157 | 681 | 158 | 104 | 99% | 5.3 | 21.6% | 5.0% | 16.6% | 3.3% | 3.31 | 3.72 | +15.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 37 | 200 | 820 | 177 | 41 | 27 | 99% | 5.3 | 21.6% | 5.0% | 16.6% | 3.3% | 3.31 | 3.72 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hyun Jin Ryu (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.57 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | — | 5.39 | 18.1% | 8.2% | 364 | +0.82 | — | — | — |
| Randy Wolf L 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.43 | 16.6% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 174 | 78 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2023 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 69 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2023 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 66 |
| Barry Zito L 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.80 | 13.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 138 | 65 |
| CC Sabathia L 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 39 | SP | 5.17 | 22.9% | 8.3% | 5.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 756 | 63 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.73 | 12.0% | 6.3% | 1.5% | .301 | 4.73 | 12.3% | 5.5% | 111 | +1.00 | 3.57 | 444 | 60 |
| Mark Buehrle L 2023 · 4.08 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.08 | 11.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 199 | 58 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.15 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 56 |
| Aaron Harang R 2024 · 4.54 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.54 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 172 | 39 |
| John Lackey R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.88 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 4.8% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 577 | 38 |
| Rich Hill L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 39 | SP | 3.83 | 29.8% | 6.6% | 4.4% | .264 | 3.90 | 21.6% | 13.5% | 322 | +0.07 | 2.10 | 1,030 | 37 |
| Tim Hudson R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.42 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 124 | 36 |
| Yasutomo Kubo R 2025 · 3.67 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.67 | 20.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 152 | 35 |
| R.A. Dickey R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.31 | 14.3% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .253 | 4.63 | 17.0% | 8.7% | 360 | +0.32 | 4.31 | 574 | 32 |
| Bartolo Colon R 2029 · 3.68 FIP | 42 | SP | 3.68 | 16.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% | .302 | 4.62 | 14.5% | 10.2% | 481 | +0.94 | 3.68 | 676 | 32 |
| Brad Penny R 2024 · 3.52 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.52 | 12.0% | 5.8% | 1.3% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 135 | 31 |
| Francisco Campos R 2029 · 4.67 FIP | 42 | SP | 4.67 | 11.5% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .303 | 3.91 | 12.2% | 7.0% | 197 | -0.76 | 3.85 | 332 | 30 |
| Walter Silva R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 39 | SP | 4.32 | 10.3% | 5.5% | 2.5% | .294 | 4.23 | 10.0% | 1.8% | 235 | -0.09 | 3.68 | 428 | 28 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.48 | 11.8% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.48 | 156 | 27 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2024 · 5.00 FIP | 37 | SP | 5.00 | 11.6% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 235 | 26 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 132 | 18.8% | 9.5% | 1.44 | 4.84 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |