Hyun Jin Ryu — OGILVIE

Hyun Jin Ryu P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 39 LHP 6'3" / 250 lbs MLB Svc 13.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA4.26

FIP4.57

K%20.3%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1088.7

Whiff%

p2021.1%

p1417.0%

xwOBA vs

p580.304

CT+1.8

FB+1.1

CH-4.2

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2013

Service 13.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.0	$0.2M	-$0.7M
Totals		$0.9M		$0.2M	-$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	9	32	140	27	2	5	100%	3.6	15.2%	1.6%	13.6%	3.5%	5.29	3.95	+0.4
2016	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	9	9	32	140	27	2	5	100%	3.6	19.3%	1.4%	17.9%	3.6%	5.29	3.63	+0.5
2017	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	25	24	127	541	116	42	22	96%	5.1	21.4%	7.8%	13.7%	3.9%	3.77	4.41	+0.7
2017	30	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	25	24	127	541	116	42	22	96%	5.1	21.4%	7.8%	13.7%	4.1%	3.77	4.52	+0.6
2018	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	91	357	96	14	9	100%	5.4	27.5%	4.3%	23.1%	2.7%	1.87	2.79	+2.4
2018	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	91	357	96	14	9	100%	5.4	26.9%	3.9%	23.0%	2.5%	1.87	2.74	+2.5
2019	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	29	29	183	723	163	22	17	100%	6.3	22.5%	3.0%	19.5%	2.3%	2.32	2.82	+4.9
2019	32	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	29	29	183	723	163	22	17	100%	6.3	22.5%	3.0%	19.5%	2.4%	2.32	2.89	+4.7
2020	33	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	12	12	67	275	72	17	6	100%	5.6	26.2%	6.2%	20.0%	2.2%	2.69	2.87	+1.7
2020	33	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	12	12	67	275	72	17	6	100%	5.6	26.2%	6.2%	20.0%	2.2%	2.69	2.88	+1.7
2021	34	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	31	31	169	701	143	37	24	100%	5.5	20.4%	5.3%	15.1%	3.4%	4.37	3.93	+2.0
2021	34	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	31	31	169	701	143	37	24	100%	5.5	20.4%	5.3%	15.1%	3.4%	4.37	3.91	+2.0
2022	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	31	131	22	4	6	100%	4.4	14.2%	3.5%	10.6%	4.4%	5.52	4.78	+0.0
2022	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	31	131	22	4	6	100%	4.4	16.8%	3.1%	13.7%	4.6%	5.52	4.58	+0.1
2023	36	MIX MLE	4 levels	15	15	70	289	54	15	12	100%	4.7	17.0%	6.2%	10.7%	4.0%	3.09	4.66	+0.2
2023	36	MIX MLE	4 levels	15	15	70	289	54	15	12	100%	4.7	17.0%	6.2%	10.7%	4.0%	3.09	4.66	+0.2
2023	36	MIX RAW	4 levels	15	15	70	289	54	15	12	100%	4.7	18.7%	5.2%	13.5%	4.2%	3.09	4.43	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			130	129	711	2925	641	151	93	99%	5.5	21.9%	5.2%	16.8%	3.2%	3.33	3.63	+10.9
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	39	MLB	TOR	2	2	13	55	11	5	2	100%	6.5	20.3%	8.6%	11.7%	3.1%	4.26	4.57	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	40	MLB MLE	TOR	23	23	140	591	113	55	21	100%	6.1	19.1%	9.3%	9.9%	3.6%	4.70	5.00	-0.2
2027	40	MLB CTX	TOR	23	23	140	591	113	55	21	100%	6.1	19.1%	9.3%	9.9%	3.6%	4.70	5.00	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		153	152	851	3516	754	206	114	99%	5.6	21.4%	5.9%	15.6%	3.2%	3.55	3.81	+11.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	826	177	48	27	99%	5.6	21.4%	5.9%	15.6%	3.2%	3.55	3.81	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		145	144	770	3157	681	158	99	99%	5.3	21.6%	5.0%	16.6%	3.1%	3.31	3.64	+10.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	37	200	820	177	41	26	99%	5.3	21.6%	5.0%	16.6%	3.1%	3.31	3.64	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hyun Jin Ryu (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	20.3%	8.6%	3.1%	—	5.00	19.1%	9.9%	140	+0.43	—	—	—
Randy Wolf L 2015 · 3.40 FIP	38	SP	3.40	16.6%	7.7%	1.3%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	174	78
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	69
Wandy Rodriguez L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	36	SP-	3.83	19.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	101	66
Barry Zito L 2015 · 4.52 FIP	37	SP	4.52	13.6%	10.7%	2.2%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	4.52	138	64
Mauricio Lara L 2017 · 3.70 FIP	38	SP	3.70	12.0%	6.3%	1.5%	.301	4.96	12.3%	5.5%	111	+1.26	3.62	444	60
Mark Buehrle L 2015 · 4.08 FIP	36	SP	4.08	11.0%	3.5%	2.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	199	58
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	57
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	56
CC Sabathia L 2019 · 5.19 FIP	39	SP	5.19	22.9%	8.3%	5.4%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	756	42
Aaron Harang R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	37	SP	4.47	14.4%	6.4%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	172	39
Tim Hudson R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	40	SP	4.41	12.2%	6.9%	2.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	124	36
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	35
R.A. Dickey R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	40	SP	4.31	14.3%	6.8%	2.8%	.253	4.63	17.0%	8.7%	360	+0.32	4.31	574	32
Brad Penny R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	37	SP	3.68	12.0%	5.8%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	135	32
Bartolo Colon R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	42	SP	3.67	16.7%	2.3%	3.1%	.302	4.60	14.5%	10.2%	481	+0.93	3.67	676	32
Francisco Campos R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	42	SP	4.77	11.5%	7.9%	3.0%	.303	4.08	12.2%	7.0%	197	-0.69	4.06	332	30
Rich Hill L 2019 · 3.60 FIP	39	SP	3.60	29.8%	6.6%	4.0%	.264	3.92	21.6%	13.5%	322	+0.32	2.05	1,030	29
Walter Silva R 2016 · 4.22 FIP	39	SP	4.22	10.3%	5.5%	2.4%	.294	4.35	10.0%	1.8%	235	+0.13	3.67	428	28
Sergio Mitre R 2019 · 4.54 FIP	38	SP	4.54	11.8%	6.5%	2.9%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	156	27
John Lackey R 2017 · 5.05 FIP	38	SP	5.05	20.4%	6.8%	5.1%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	577	27

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	151	19.7%	8.9%	1.29	4.46
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63