Eduardo Rodriguez

Eduardo Rodriguez P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 33 LHP 6'2" / 231 lbs MLB Svc 10.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 0.9 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION173 act + 16 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 114

ERA4.11

FIP4.31

K%18.5%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%10.4%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 189 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$35M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5560

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1592.0

Whiff%

p2321.5%

p2118.0%

xwOBA vs

p430.320

CH+2.4 (27%)

FB (48%)

SI (8%)

CU (12%)

CT-2.0 (13%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 10.407 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.2	$0.8M	-$0.9M
2027	Ext	$19M	+0.2	$0.7M	-$16M
2028	Ext	$17M	—	—	—
Totals		$38M		$0.8M	-$32M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$32M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	170	712	142	43	15	100%	5.9	19.2%	6.1%	13.1%	2.2%	3.60	3.45	+3.0
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	170	712	142	43	15	100%	5.9	19.9%	6.0%	13.9%	2.1%	3.60	3.34	+3.3
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	145	612	124	46	22	100%	5.4	19.8%	7.6%	12.2%	3.8%	4.28	4.46	+0.8
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	145	612	124	46	22	100%	5.4	20.3%	7.5%	12.7%	3.6%	4.28	4.31	+1.0
2017	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	27	151	644	165	54	20	96%	5.4	25.8%	8.4%	17.4%	3.3%	4.42	3.83	+1.9
2017	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	27	151	644	165	54	20	96%	5.4	25.6%	8.4%	17.2%	3.1%	4.42	3.71	+2.2
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	25	138	584	160	48	16	86%	4.7	26.4%	8.0%	18.4%	3.0%	3.60	3.51	+2.3
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	25	138	584	160	48	16	86%	4.7	27.4%	8.2%	19.2%	2.7%	3.60	3.33	+2.6
2019	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	34	34	203	859	213	73	24	100%	6.0	24.8%	8.5%	16.3%	2.9%	3.81	3.66	+3.1
2019	26	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	34	34	203	859	213	73	24	100%	6.0	24.8%	8.5%	16.3%	2.8%	3.81	3.62	+3.2
2021	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	32	31	158	675	185	47	19	97%	4.9	27.4%	7.0%	20.4%	2.9%	4.74	3.25	+3.2
2021	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	32	31	158	675	185	47	19	97%	4.9	27.4%	7.0%	20.4%	2.8%	4.74	3.21	+3.3
2022	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	109	459	103	37	12	100%	5.2	21.3%	8.1%	13.2%	2.8%	3.55	3.87	+1.3
2022	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	109	459	103	37	12	100%	5.2	22.4%	8.1%	14.4%	2.6%	3.55	3.66	+1.6
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	157	637	147	49	15	100%	5.8	23.0%	7.7%	15.3%	2.5%	3.21	3.52	+2.6
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	157	637	147	49	15	100%	5.8	23.0%	7.7%	15.3%	2.5%	3.21	3.52	+2.6
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	157	637	147	49	15	100%	5.8	23.1%	7.7%	15.4%	2.4%	3.21	3.41	+2.9
2024	31	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	10	10	50	224	47	18	8	100%	5.0	21.0%	8.0%	12.9%	3.8%	5.04	4.42	+0.3
2024	31	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	10	10	50	224	47	18	8	100%	5.0	21.0%	8.0%	12.9%	3.8%	5.04	4.42	+0.3
2024	31	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	10	10	50	224	47	18	8	100%	5.0	21.0%	8.0%	12.9%	3.6%	5.04	4.38	+0.3
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	159	712	152	59	28	100%	5.3	20.6%	8.4%	12.2%	3.8%	5.04	4.51	+0.7
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	159	712	152	59	28	100%	5.3	20.6%	8.4%	12.2%	3.8%	5.04	4.51	+0.7
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	159	712	152	59	28	100%	5.3	21.3%	8.3%	13.1%	3.9%	5.04	4.59	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			270	264	1478	6289	1425	503	182	98%	5.5	22.7%	8.0%	14.7%	2.9%	4.00	3.79	+19.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	29	29	173	710	128	57	15	100%	6.0	18.0%	8.0%	10.0%	2.2%	2.55	3.82	+2.2
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	29	29	173	710	128	57	15	100%	6.0	18.0%	8.0%	10.0%	2.2%	2.55	3.82	+2.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	MLB RAW	ARI	29	29	173	710	128	57	15	100%	6.0	18.0%	8.0%	10.0%	2.1%	2.55	3.75	+2.4
SO FAR	33	MLB RAW	ARI	29	29	173	710	128	57	15	100%	6.0	18.0%	8.0%	10.0%	2.1%	2.55	3.75	+2.4
ROS	33	MLB MLE	ARI	3	3	16	66	12	5	2	100%	5.2	18.5%	8.1%	10.4%	3.2%	4.11	4.31	+0.1
ROS	33	MLB CTX	ARI	3	3	16	68	13	5	2	100%	5.3	18.5%	8.1%	10.4%	3.0%	4.01	4.21	+0.1
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	189	776	140	62	17	—	—	18.1%	8.0%	10.0%	2.2%	2.68	3.86	+2.4
FULL	33	MLB A+C	ARI	—	—	189	797	140	62	17	—	—	17.6%	7.8%	9.8%	2.1%	2.67	3.78	+2.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	111	467	83	40	14	100%	6.1	17.8%	8.6%	9.2%	3.0%	4.51	4.71	+0.2
2028	35	MLB MLE	ARI	17	17	99	419	71	38	14	100%	5.8	16.8%	9.2%	7.7%	3.3%	4.83	5.05	-0.2
2027	34	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	111	469	83	40	13	100%	6.2	17.8%	8.6%	9.2%	2.8%	4.42	4.62	+0.2
2028	35	MLB CTX	ARI	16	16	99	418	70	38	13	100%	6.2	16.8%	9.2%	7.7%	3.2%	4.73	4.95	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		308	302	1703	7241	1591	587	210	98%	5.5	22.0%	8.1%	13.9%	2.9%	4.07	3.87	+21.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	35	200	850	187	69	25	98%	5.5	22.0%	8.1%	13.9%	2.9%	4.07	3.87	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		296	290	1612	6828	1542	531	202	98%	5.4	22.6%	7.8%	14.8%	3.0%	3.91	3.80	+19.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	36	200	847	191	66	25	98%	5.4	22.6%	7.8%	14.8%	3.0%	3.91	3.80	+2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eduardo Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	20.3%	8.3%	3.5%	—	4.87	17.3%	8.5%	210	+0.12	—	—	—
Wei-Yin Chen L 2018 · 4.29 FIP	33	SP	4.29	19.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.279	4.85	20.5%	15.3%	68	+0.56	3.68	549	74
Cole Hamels L 2017 · 4.28 FIP	33	SP	4.28	17.1%	8.5%	2.8%	.244	4.05	23.3%	14.8%	332	-0.23	3.21	893	74
Jon Lester L 2017 · 4.00 FIP	33	SP	4.00	23.6%	7.5%	3.5%	.306	4.30	19.9%	12.5%	414	+0.30	2.81	1,144	72
Mike Minor L 2021 · 4.30 FIP	33	SP	4.30	22.3%	6.1%	4.2%	.287	5.10	18.0%	10.9%	114	+0.80	2.43	807	67
J.A. Happ L 2016 · 3.84 FIP	33	SP	3.84	20.5%	7.5%	2.8%	.265	4.05	23.3%	16.2%	484	+0.21	3.37	1,053	62
Jorge De La Rosa L 2015 · 3.86 FIP	34	SP	3.86	21.1%	9.8%	2.4%	.284	4.36	18.4%	8.9%	256	+0.50	3.86	405	60
Clayton Richard L 2017 · 3.89 FIP	33	SP	3.89	17.6%	6.2%	2.7%	.343	4.67	14.7%	5.9%	204	+0.78	3.56	574	59
C.J. Wilson L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	34	SP	3.69	19.9%	8.0%	2.3%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	132	59
CC Sabathia L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	35	SP	4.31	18.9%	6.5%	3.6%	.311	3.97	20.1%	12.1%	481	-0.34	3.76	756	58
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	119	57
Eric Stults L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	35	SP	4.27	14.5%	5.9%	3.0%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	138	57
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	57
Gio Gonzalez L 2019 · 3.79 FIP	33	SP	3.79	21.7%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.91	22.2%	9.8%	32	+1.12	2.90	864	56
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	56
Drew Smyly L 2022 · 4.16 FIP	33	SP	4.16	20.4%	5.8%	3.7%	.271	4.66	22.3%	13.5%	201	+0.50	2.00	840	56
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	56
Wade LeBlanc L 2018 · 4.23 FIP	33	SP	4.23	19.6%	5.9%	3.7%	.271	5.12	16.4%	10.2%	227	+0.89	3.65	609	56
Mauricio Lara L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	36	SP	3.62	13.9%	6.9%	1.5%	.310	3.69	12.1%	5.1%	220	+0.07	3.62	444	55
Daniel Rodriguez L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	32	SP	3.87	13.1%	9.7%	1.2%	.335	4.77	20.8%	13.0%	112	+0.90	2.89	391	52
Roy Merritt L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	16.2%	5.8%	2.7%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	129	52

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	110	18.4%	8.7%	1.27	4.62
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24