Quinn Mathews

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 26 LHP 6'5" / 188 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

AAASP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX4 levels	26	26	143	2.76	2.03	35.4%	8.6%	—	K 27.9% · BB 9.2% · FIP 2.75
2025	24	MIX3 levels	24	24	99	3.73	3.81	26.1%	16.8%	—	K 21.8% · BB 15.8% · FIP 4.25
2026	25	MIX2 levels	30	30	148	3.46	4.08	26.7%	13.0%	2.3	K 24.0% · BB 12.0% · FIP 4.34
2027PROJ	26	MLBSTL	8	8	49	4.30	4.54	23.9%	12.4%	0.5
2028PROJ84% MLB	27	MLBSTL	11	11	65	4.33	4.44	23.7%	12.0%	0.6
2029PROJ88% MLB	28	MLBSTL	11	11	67	4.42	4.50	23.4%	11.9%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.238First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$2M2032Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs60

K%47

FB Velo34

Form3.03 ERA (proj 4.30) · K 21.3% (proj 23.9%) · BB 9.8% (proj 12.4%) · last 60d · 30 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 4.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 88%

CompsDavid Purcey (age 26) · Aríel Miranda (age 26) · James Paxton (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 96104vR 112

ERA4.30

FIP4.54

K%23.9%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%11.4%

Proj IP64

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p6026.8%

p4721.8%

xwOBA vs

p600.302

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.238 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.5M
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	26	143	570	202	49	8	100%	5.5	27.9%	9.2%	18.7%	1.5%	2.76	2.75	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	26	143	570	202	49	8	100%	5.5	27.9%	9.2%	18.7%	1.5%	2.76	2.75	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	26	26	143	570	202	49	8	100%	5.5	35.4%	8.6%	26.8%	1.4%	2.76	2.03	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	99	440	115	74	6	100%	4.1	21.8%	15.8%	6.0%	1.8%	3.73	4.25	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	99	440	115	74	6	100%	4.1	21.8%	15.8%	6.0%	1.8%	3.73	4.25	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	99	440	115	74	6	100%	4.1	26.1%	16.8%	9.3%	1.4%	3.73	3.81	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	148	622	166	81	18	100%	4.9	24.0%	12.0%	11.9%	3.2%	3.46	4.34	+1.9
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	148	622	166	81	18	100%	4.9	24.0%	12.0%	11.9%	3.2%	3.46	4.34	+1.9
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	148	622	166	81	18	100%	4.9	26.7%	13.0%	13.7%	2.9%	3.46	4.08	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	9	49	211	46	20	5	100%	5.5	21.8%	9.5%	12.3%	2.4%	3.83	3.77	+1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	STL	8	8	49	207	49	26	6	100%	6.1	23.9%	12.4%	11.4%	2.7%	4.30	4.54	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	STL	13	13	77	325	77	39	9	100%	5.9	23.7%	12.0%	11.6%	2.8%	4.44	4.55	+0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	STL	13	13	76	322	75	38	9	100%	5.9	23.4%	11.9%	11.5%	2.9%	4.53	4.61	+0.7
2030	29	MLB MLE	STL	11	11	67	284	65	34	9	100%	6.1	22.8%	11.9%	10.9%	3.1%	4.66	4.75	+0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	STL	9	9	55	233	51	28	8	100%	6.1	22.0%	12.1%	9.9%	3.3%	4.83	4.95	+0.3
2032	31	MLB MLE	STL	7	7	42	177	38	22	6	100%	6.0	21.3%	12.4%	8.8%	3.5%	5.04	5.18	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	65	274	65	33	7	100%	5.9	23.7%	12.0%	11.6%	2.6%	4.33	4.44	+0.6
2029	28	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	67	283	66	34	8	100%	6.1	23.4%	11.9%	11.5%	2.7%	4.42	4.50	+0.6
2030	29	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	61	258	59	31	7	100%	6.1	22.8%	11.9%	10.9%	2.9%	4.54	4.63	+0.5
2031	30	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	51	215	47	26	7	100%	6.4	22.0%	12.1%	9.9%	3.0%	4.70	4.82	+0.3
2032	31	MLB CTX	STL	6	6	39	165	35	20	5	100%	6.5	21.3%	12.4%	8.8%	3.3%	4.91	5.05	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	56	332	1402	317	163	39	100%	5.9	22.6%	11.6%	11.0%	2.8%	4.44	4.19	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	846	191	98	24	100%	5.9	22.6%	11.6%	11.0%	2.8%	4.44	4.19	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		80	80	391	1632	404	197	36	100%	4.9	24.7%	12.1%	12.7%	2.2%	3.27	3.76	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	41	200	835	207	101	19	100%	4.9	24.7%	12.1%	12.7%	2.2%	3.27	3.76	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 99 IPFIP 4.25 → 4.58 (+0.33)K% 29.2% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.20%	—	×0.860	25.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.84%	—	×0.900	13.36%
HR / BF /BF	3.16%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.48%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.25 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 94 IPFIP 3.96 → 4.25 (+0.29)K% 25.4% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.36%	—	×0.860	21.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.54%	—	×0.900	15.78%
HR / BF /BF	1.42%	÷0.869	×1.100	1.80%

Result: FIP 3.96 → 4.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASpringfield Cardinals · 52 IPFIP 1.96 → 2.49 (+0.53)K% 33.8% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.82%	—	×0.810	27.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.25%	—	×1.100	7.97%
HR / BF /BF	1.45%	÷1.386	×1.200	1.26%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 177).

Result: FIP 1.96 → 2.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Peoria Chiefs · 44 IPFIP 1.51 → 2.45 (+0.95)K% 34.7% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.73%	—	×0.770	26.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.39%	—	×1.150	6.20%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷0.993	×1.250	1.51%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 1.51 → 2.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 APalm Beach Cardinals · 31 IPFIP 1.48 → 2.91 (+1.43)K% 44.4% → 32.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.44%	—	×0.740	32.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.40%	—	×1.180	11.09%
HR / BF /BF	1.71%	÷1.036	×1.300	2.15%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 1.48 → 2.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 17 IPFIP 3.69 → 3.85 (+0.16)K% 27.8% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.85%	—	×0.860	23.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.72%	—	×0.900	15.95%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷1.020	×1.100	1.36%

Result: FIP 3.69 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Quinn Mathews (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.63	23.3%	11.4%	220	+0.09	—	—	—
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	82
Aríel Miranda L 2015 · 3.46 FIP	26	SP	3.46	18.3%	10.2%	1.1%	.280	5.12	19.2%	10.2%	364	+1.66	3.46	431	77
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	1,022	77
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	73
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	72
Christian Friedrich L 2012 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	19.6%	8.0%	3.3%	.340	3.59	19.0%	10.6%	83	-0.67	3.39	297	72
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	71
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	71
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	70
Miguel Pena L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	16.8%	8.2%	2.3%	.288	5.08	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.11	2.98	282	69
Zack Thompson L 2024 · 4.64 FIP	26	SP	4.64	23.7%	12.2%	3.6%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.03	402	68
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2016 · 3.46 FIP	26	SP	3.46	18.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.334	3.92	19.3%	9.9%	209	+0.46	3.46	440	67
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	67
Matt Lujan L 2015 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	15.5%	10.0%	1.8%	.326	4.84	16.0%	7.6%	119	+0.78	4.06	227	66
Tyler Skaggs L 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SP	4.23	20.8%	7.7%	3.5%	.310	3.51	23.9%	16.0%	205	-0.72	3.18	553	66
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	66
Michael Plassmeyer L 2023 · 4.41 FIP	26	SP	4.41	21.3%	9.0%	3.6%	.319	4.54	20.1%	13.8%	216	+0.13	3.42	653	66
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	66
Grant Watson L 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	16.4%	10.3%	3.0%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	180	66
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	62	22.9%	11.8%	1.14	4.51
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Curt Leskanic ('04)	3.6	65	20.6%	11.6%	1.01	4.36
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*