Quinn Mathews — OGILVIE

Quinn Mathews P Memphis Redbirds

Age 25 LHP 6'5" / 188 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.7 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION130 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 94102vR 110

ERA4.05

FIP4.05

K%23.3%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 143 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL5050

CMD3550

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p5526.1%

p3820.4%

xwOBA vs

p720.291

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$8M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$10M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$21M	+$14M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	26	143	570	202	49	8	100%	5.5	27.7%	9.2%	18.5%	1.5%	2.76	2.76	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	26	143	570	202	49	8	100%	5.5	27.7%	9.2%	18.5%	1.5%	2.76	2.76	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	26	26	143	570	202	49	8	100%	5.5	35.4%	8.6%	26.8%	1.4%	2.76	2.03	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	99	440	115	74	6	100%	4.1	21.0%	15.8%	5.3%	1.8%	3.73	4.31	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	99	440	115	74	6	100%	4.1	21.0%	15.8%	5.3%	1.8%	3.73	4.31	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	99	440	115	74	6	100%	4.1	26.1%	16.8%	9.3%	1.4%	3.73	3.81	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	6	31	137	28	14	3	100%	5.1	20.4%	10.2%	10.2%	2.2%	4.11	3.92	+0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	27	27	130	548	148	75	16	100%	4.8	23.3%	12.6%	10.7%	3.2%	3.47	4.48	—
YTD	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	27	27	130	548	148	75	16	100%	4.8	23.3%	12.6%	10.7%	3.2%	3.47	4.48	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	STL	21	21	99	411	120	61	13	100%	4.7	29.2%	14.8%	14.4%	3.2%	3.27	4.25	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	STL	6	6	31	137	28	14	3	100%	5.1	20.4%	10.2%	10.2%	2.2%	4.11	3.87	+0.4
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	STL	6	6	31	137	28	14	3	100%	5.1	20.4%	10.2%	10.2%	2.2%	4.11	3.87	+0.4
ROS	25	MLB MLE	STL	2	2	13	55	13	7	1	100%	6.6	23.3%	12.9%	10.5%	2.4%	4.05	4.05	+0.1
ROS	25	MLB CTX	STL	2	2	13	55	13	7	1	100%	6.5	23.3%	12.9%	10.5%	2.2%	3.96	3.96	+0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	143	603	161	82	17	—	—	26.7%	13.6%	13.1%	2.9%	3.52	4.44	+0.8
FULL	25	MLB A+C	STL	—	—	44	185	161	82	17	—	—	87.0%	44.4%	42.6%	9.3%	11.46	6.49	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	STL	29	29	175	739	168	87	17	100%	6.0	22.8%	11.7%	11.0%	2.4%	4.35	4.33	+1.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	STL	29	29	172	728	165	84	18	100%	5.9	22.7%	11.5%	11.2%	2.4%	4.36	4.36	+1.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	STL	29	29	172	728	164	83	19	100%	5.9	22.5%	11.5%	11.1%	2.6%	4.41	4.44	+0.9
2030	29	MLB MLE	STL	27	27	165	695	155	81	19	100%	6.1	22.3%	11.6%	10.7%	2.7%	4.50	4.57	+0.6
2031	30	MLB MLE	STL	26	26	155	653	143	78	19	100%	5.9	21.9%	11.9%	10.1%	2.9%	4.65	4.75	+0.3
2032	31	MLB MLE	STL	24	24	144	609	131	75	19	100%	6.0	21.5%	12.2%	9.3%	3.2%	4.83	4.95	-0.1
2033	32	MLB MLE	STL	22	22	134	564	119	71	19	100%	6.1	21.1%	12.6%	8.4%	3.4%	5.04	5.17	-0.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	STL	28	28	166	701	160	82	15	100%	5.9	22.8%	11.7%	11.0%	2.2%	4.26	4.24	+1.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	STL	27	27	164	692	157	80	16	100%	6.1	22.7%	11.5%	11.2%	2.3%	4.27	4.27	+1.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	STL	27	27	164	692	156	79	17	100%	6.1	22.5%	11.5%	11.1%	2.4%	4.31	4.34	+0.9
2030	29	MLB CTX	STL	26	26	156	659	147	76	17	100%	6.0	22.3%	11.6%	10.7%	2.5%	4.39	4.46	+0.6
2031	30	MLB CTX	STL	24	24	147	621	136	74	17	100%	6.1	21.9%	11.9%	10.1%	2.7%	4.54	4.64	+0.3
2032	31	MLB CTX	STL	23	23	137	578	125	71	17	100%	6.0	21.5%	12.2%	9.3%	2.9%	4.71	4.83	-0.1
2033	32	MLB CTX	STL	21	21	127	536	113	68	17	100%	6.0	21.1%	12.6%	8.4%	3.2%	4.91	5.04	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		186	186	1105	4672	1035	551	120	100%	5.9	22.1%	11.8%	10.3%	2.6%	4.45	4.13	+10.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	846	187	100	22	100%	6.0	22.1%	11.8%	10.3%	2.6%	4.45	4.13	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		77	77	372	1558	378	191	34	100%	4.8	24.3%	12.2%	12.0%	2.2%	3.27	3.80	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	41	200	838	203	103	18	100%	4.8	24.3%	12.2%	12.0%	2.2%	3.27	3.80	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Quinn Mathews (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.42	23.4%	13.0%	2.3%	—	4.38	22.7%	11.1%	520	-0.04	—	—	—
Sean Newcomb L 2018 · 4.03 FIP	25	SP	4.03	23.0%	11.5%	2.6%	.272	3.63	24.5%	13.9%	152	-0.40	2.49	1,024	80
Scott Moss L 2019 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	23.7%	13.9%	2.0%	.291	4.14	26.3%	10.1%	20	+0.20	3.83	457	79
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	79
Damon Jones L 2019 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP	3.71	25.9%	13.8%	1.9%	.266	4.21	25.5%	7.4%	41	+0.50	3.71	269	78
Roenis Elías L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	26	SP	4.32	17.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.299	3.98	17.7%	8.3%	251	-0.34	3.15	564	78
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	77
Austin Krob L 2023 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.9%	10.7%	1.5%	.329	4.00	17.4%	7.1%	171	+0.41	3.59	280	77
Jonathan Dziedzic L 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP	4.32	15.7%	11.0%	2.1%	.292	4.80	14.2%	5.3%	243	+0.48	3.88	522	77
John Lamb L 2015 · 3.38 FIP	25	SP	3.38	23.9%	8.4%	2.2%	.319	4.62	17.9%	9.4%	229	+1.24	3.38	390	76
Anthony Veneziano L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	25	SP	4.25	18.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.292	4.45	17.1%	7.9%	185	+0.20	3.57	534	76
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	76
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	76
Logan Allen L 2023 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	22.6%	9.0%	2.7%	.312	4.78	19.1%	10.3%	418	+0.94	3.67	808	76
Shane Drohan L 2023 · 5.18 FIP	24	SP	5.18	19.3%	12.1%	4.0%	.308	3.49	24.7%	15.9%	190	-1.69	2.88	532	75
Bryan Sammons L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP	4.28	21.1%	11.0%	2.9%	.287	6.30	18.5%	6.7%	158	+2.02	3.58	688	75
Darin Gorski L 2015 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP	4.93	15.2%	11.4%	3.0%	.323	4.50	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.43	4.50	206	74
Michael Prosecky L 2023 · 3.26 FIP	22	SP	3.26	20.4%	10.7%	1.0%	.293	4.73	18.3%	4.9%	176	+1.47	3.26	285	74
Cade Povich L 2023 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	25.4%	12.1%	3.4%	.298	4.33	21.8%	13.5%	382	-0.02	3.81	623	74
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	74
Danny Duffy L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	17.3%	9.0%	2.8%	.292	3.96	22.7%	15.3%	481	-0.33	3.29	915	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	160	22.3%	12.0%	1.05	4.55
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32