Quinn Mathews
P
Memphis Redbirds
Age 25
LHP
6'5" / 188 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION79 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108117vR 126
ERA4.75
FIP4.75
K%24.4%
BB%15.9%
K-BB%8.5%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 26 | 26 | 143 | 570 | 202 | 49 | 8 | 100% | 5.5 | 27.9% | 9.6% | 18.4% | 1.4% | 2.76 | 2.73 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 26 | 26 | 143 | 570 | 202 | 49 | 8 | 100% | 5.5 | 35.4% | 8.6% | 26.8% | 1.4% | 2.76 | 2.03 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 24 | 99 | 440 | 115 | 74 | 6 | 100% | 4.1 | 22.3% | 18.4% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 3.73 | 4.71 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 24 | 99 | 440 | 115 | 74 | 6 | 100% | 4.1 | 26.1% | 16.8% | 9.3% | 1.4% | 3.73 | 3.81 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 17 | 17 | 79 | 326 | 97 | 48 | 12 | 100% | 4.6 | 26.2% | 15.5% | 10.7% | 4.0% | 3.53 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 67 | 44 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.4% | 15.9% | 8.5% | 2.4% | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | STL | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.4% | 15.9% | 8.5% | 2.4% | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | STL | — | — | 144 | 600 | 164 | 92 | 19 | — | — | 27.3% | 15.3% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.08 | 4.93 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | STL | — | — | 6 | 27 | 7 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 24.4% | 15.9% | 8.5% | 2.4% | 4.75 | 4.37 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | STL | 29 | 29 | 175 | 739 | 180 | 111 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.4% | 15.0% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 4.69 | 4.68 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | STL | 29 | 29 | 172 | 728 | 176 | 106 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.2% | 14.6% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 4.68 | 4.69 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | STL | 29 | 29 | 172 | 728 | 174 | 105 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.0% | 14.4% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.71 | 4.75 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | STL | 27 | 27 | 165 | 695 | 165 | 100 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.7% | 14.4% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | STL | 26 | 26 | 155 | 653 | 152 | 96 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.3% | 14.7% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.95 | 5.04 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | STL | 24 | 24 | 144 | 609 | 140 | 92 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 15.1% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 5.13 | 5.25 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 134 | 564 | 127 | 87 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.5% | 15.5% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 5.33 | 5.47 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | STL | 14 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 86 | 53 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.4% | 15.0% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 4.69 | 4.68 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | STL | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 116 | 70 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.2% | 14.6% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 4.68 | 4.69 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 135 | 81 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.0% | 14.4% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.71 | 4.75 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | STL | 23 | 23 | 136 | 574 | 136 | 83 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.7% | 14.4% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 134 | 566 | 132 | 83 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.3% | 14.7% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.95 | 5.04 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 129 | 545 | 125 | 82 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.9% | 15.1% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 5.13 | 5.25 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | STL | 20 | 20 | 122 | 515 | 116 | 80 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.5% | 15.5% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 5.33 | 5.47 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 143 | 143 | 859 | 3626 | 853 | 537 | 106 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.5% | 14.8% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.90 | 4.59 | +8.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 125 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.5% | 14.8% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.90 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 67 | 67 | 321 | 1336 | 343 | 186 | 31 | 100% | 4.8 | 25.7% | 13.9% | 11.7% | 2.3% | 3.25 | 3.95 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 42 | 200 | 832 | 213 | 116 | 19 | 100% | 4.8 | 25.7% | 13.9% | 11.7% | 2.3% | 3.25 | 3.95 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Quinn Mathews (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.75 | 24.4% | 15.9% | 2.4% | — | 4.71 | 24.2% | 9.5% | 520 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Scott Moss L 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.13 | 23.7% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .291 | 4.10 | 26.3% | 10.1% | 20 | -0.03 | 3.68 | 457 | 79 |
| Damon Jones L 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.85 | 25.9% | 13.8% | 2.2% | .266 | 4.25 | 25.5% | 7.4% | 41 | +0.40 | 3.85 | 269 | 79 |
| Sean Newcomb L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.03 | 23.0% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .272 | 3.64 | 24.5% | 13.9% | 152 | -0.39 | 2.26 | 993 | 77 |
| Misael Siverio L 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.00 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .343 | 4.52 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.52 | 4.00 | 185 | 69 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .292 | 4.68 | 17.8% | 6.3% | 153 | +0.16 | 4.24 | 501 | 69 |
| Bryan Sammons L 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 21.1% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .287 | 6.15 | 18.5% | 6.7% | 158 | +1.89 | 3.53 | 688 | 69 |
| Jonathan Dziedzic L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.26 | 15.7% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .292 | 4.75 | 14.2% | 5.3% | 243 | +0.49 | 3.79 | 522 | 68 |
| Darin Gorski L 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.79 | 15.2% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .323 | 4.39 | 15.0% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.40 | 4.39 | 206 | 67 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2024 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.83 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 160 | 67 |
| Trenton Wallace L 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 21.9% | 12.6% | 4.1% | .263 | 5.34 | 24.8% | 8.4% | 52 | +0.25 | 2.75 | 286 | 66 |
| Tyson Guerrero L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.62 | 18.9% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 231 | 66 |
| Roenis Elías L 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.29 | 17.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .299 | 3.96 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 251 | -0.33 | 3.19 | 564 | 66 |
| Amir Garrett L 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.35 | 18.7% | 10.1% | 4.6% | .302 | 3.64 | 30.3% | 19.5% | 137 | -1.71 | 3.06 | 712 | 65 |
| Andrew Alvarez L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.40 | 17.2% | 10.1% | 2.7% | .286 | 4.07 | 21.6% | 11.1% | 229 | -0.33 | 3.35 | 575 | 65 |
| Brandon Schaeffer L 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.08 | 16.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 134 | 65 |
| Austin Warner L 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.98 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .313 | 4.29 | 19.3% | 11.0% | 159 | -0.69 | 3.88 | 491 | 65 |
| Danny Duffy L 2027 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .292 | 3.94 | 22.7% | 15.3% | 481 | -0.33 | 3.29 | 915 | 65 |
| Daniel Camarena L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.33 | 15.9% | 9.7% | 2.5% | .338 | 4.51 | 16.9% | 10.5% | 187 | +0.18 | 3.74 | 674 | 64 |
| Bruce Zimmermann L 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.13 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .299 | 4.60 | 18.5% | 12.5% | 229 | +0.47 | 2.91 | 934 | 64 |
| Kohl Drake L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.34 | 23.5% | 10.3% | 3.5% | .295 | 5.13 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 66 | +0.79 | 3.28 | 297 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 160 | 23.7% | 14.9% | 1.09 | 4.86 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Chad Kuhl ('24) | 8 | 84 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.31 | 4.98 |