Quinn Mathews — OGILVIE

Quinn Mathews P Memphis Redbirds

Age 26 LHP 6'5" / 188 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.8 · 2027

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 175 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 96104vR 112

ERA4.30

FIP4.54

K%23.9%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP175

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 175 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL5050

CMD3550

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p6026.8%

p4721.8%

xwOBA vs

p600.302

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$6M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$6M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	26	143	570	202	49	8	100%	5.5	27.9%	9.2%	18.7%	1.5%	2.76	2.75	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	26	143	570	202	49	8	100%	5.5	27.9%	9.2%	18.7%	1.5%	2.76	2.75	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	26	26	143	570	202	49	8	100%	5.5	35.4%	8.6%	26.8%	1.4%	2.76	2.03	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	99	440	115	74	6	100%	4.1	21.8%	15.8%	6.0%	1.8%	3.73	4.25	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	99	440	115	74	6	100%	4.1	21.8%	15.8%	6.0%	1.8%	3.73	4.25	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	99	440	115	74	6	100%	4.1	26.1%	16.8%	9.3%	1.4%	3.73	3.81	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	148	622	166	81	18	100%	4.9	24.0%	12.0%	11.9%	3.2%	3.46	4.34	+1.0
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	148	622	166	81	18	100%	4.9	24.0%	12.0%	11.9%	3.2%	3.46	4.34	+1.0
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	148	622	166	81	18	100%	4.9	26.7%	13.0%	13.7%	2.9%	3.46	4.08	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	9	49	211	46	20	5	100%	5.5	21.8%	9.5%	12.3%	2.4%	3.83	3.77	+0.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	STL	29	29	175	739	176	92	20	100%	6.0	23.9%	12.4%	11.4%	2.7%	4.30	4.54	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	STL	29	29	172	728	172	88	20	100%	5.9	23.7%	12.0%	11.6%	2.8%	4.44	4.55	+0.7
2029	28	MLB MLE	STL	29	29	172	728	170	86	21	100%	5.9	23.4%	11.9%	11.5%	2.9%	4.53	4.61	+0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	STL	27	27	165	695	158	83	21	100%	6.1	22.8%	11.9%	10.9%	3.1%	4.66	4.75	+0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	STL	26	26	155	653	144	79	21	100%	5.9	22.0%	12.1%	9.9%	3.3%	4.83	4.95	-0.1
2032	31	MLB MLE	STL	24	24	144	609	130	76	21	100%	6.0	21.3%	12.4%	8.8%	3.5%	5.04	5.18	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	STL	18	18	111	469	111	56	12	100%	6.2	23.7%	12.0%	11.6%	2.6%	4.33	4.44	+0.5
2029	28	MLB CTX	STL	22	22	131	553	129	66	15	100%	6.0	23.4%	11.9%	11.5%	2.7%	4.42	4.50	+0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	STL	22	22	135	570	130	68	16	100%	6.1	22.8%	11.9%	10.9%	2.9%	4.54	4.63	+0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	STL	22	22	133	562	124	68	17	100%	6.0	22.0%	12.1%	9.9%	3.0%	4.70	4.82	-0.1
2032	31	MLB CTX	STL	21	21	128	540	115	67	18	100%	6.1	21.3%	12.4%	8.8%	3.3%	4.91	5.05	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		115	115	687	2904	654	345	83	100%	6.0	22.5%	11.9%	10.7%	2.9%	4.53	4.27	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	845	190	100	24	100%	6.0	22.5%	11.9%	10.7%	2.9%	4.53	4.27	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		80	80	391	1632	404	197	36	100%	4.9	24.7%	12.1%	12.7%	2.2%	3.27	3.76	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	41	200	835	207	101	19	100%	4.9	24.7%	12.1%	12.7%	2.2%	3.27	3.76	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Quinn Mathews (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	23.9%	12.4%	2.7%	—	4.63	23.3%	11.3%	509	+0.09	—	—	—
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	82
Aríel Miranda L 2015 · 3.46 FIP	26	SP	3.46	18.3%	10.2%	1.1%	.280	5.12	19.2%	10.2%	364	+1.66	3.46	431	77
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	1,022	77
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	73
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	72
Christian Friedrich L 2012 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	19.6%	8.0%	3.3%	.340	3.59	19.0%	10.6%	83	-0.67	3.39	297	72
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	71
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	71
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	70
Miguel Pena L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	16.8%	8.2%	2.3%	.288	5.08	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.11	2.98	282	69
Zack Thompson L 2024 · 4.64 FIP	26	SP	4.64	23.7%	12.2%	3.6%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.03	402	68
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2016 · 3.46 FIP	26	SP	3.46	18.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.334	3.92	19.3%	9.9%	209	+0.46	3.46	440	67
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	67
Matt Lujan L 2015 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	15.5%	10.0%	1.8%	.326	4.84	16.0%	7.6%	119	+0.78	4.06	227	66
Tyler Skaggs L 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SP	4.23	20.8%	7.7%	3.5%	.310	3.51	23.9%	16.0%	205	-0.72	3.18	553	66
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	66
Michael Plassmeyer L 2023 · 4.41 FIP	26	SP	4.41	21.3%	9.0%	3.6%	.319	4.54	20.1%	13.8%	216	+0.13	3.42	653	66
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	66
Grant Watson L 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	16.4%	10.3%	3.0%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	180	66
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.2	148	22.8%	12.0%	1.16	4.58
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Hideo Nomo ('08)	9.9	180	22.7%	10.7%	1.14	4.24
Ubaldo Jiménez ('17)	9.3	170	21.3%	10.5%	0.90	4.34
Ian Snell ('10)	4.0	134	17.8%	10.4%	1.12	4.80
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45