Quinn Mathews
P
Memphis Redbirds
+1.0
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'5" / 188 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.1 · 2028
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.6%
BB%14.5%
K-BB%9.1%
IP110
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2028
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 26 | 26 | 143 | 570 | 202 | 49 | 8 | 27.9% | 9.6% | 1.5% | 2.76 | 2.78 | +4.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 24 | 24 | 99 | 440 | 115 | 74 | 6 | 22.3% | 18.4% | 1.8% | 3.73 | 4.56 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 3 | 3 | 11 | 52 | 19 | 10 | 2 | 32.2% | 20.2% | 4.2% | 5.56 | 5.26 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | STL | 20 | 20 | 110 | 466 | 110 | 67 | 11 | 23.6% | 14.4% | 2.3% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | STL | — | — | 122 | 518 | 129 | 77 | 13 | 24.9% | 14.9% | 2.5% | 4.68 | 4.65 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 117 | 496 | 117 | 68 | 12 | 23.6% | 13.7% | 2.4% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 120 | 509 | 120 | 68 | 12 | 23.5% | 13.3% | 2.4% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 121 | 510 | 119 | 67 | 13 | 23.4% | 13.1% | 2.5% | 4.52 | 4.54 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 118 | 498 | 116 | 65 | 13 | 23.2% | 13.0% | 2.6% | 4.55 | 4.57 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 111 | 63 | 13 | 23.0% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 4.60 | 4.64 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | STL | 20 | 20 | 110 | 467 | 106 | 62 | 13 | 22.8% | 13.2% | 2.7% | 4.67 | 4.71 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | STL | 19 | 19 | 106 | 448 | 101 | 60 | 12 | 22.5% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.75 | 4.80 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 101 | 428 | 95 | 58 | 12 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 4.84 | 4.89 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 96 | 406 | 89 | 56 | 12 | 21.9% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.94 | 5.00 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | STL | 16 | 16 | 91 | 383 | 82 | 54 | 12 | 21.5% | 14.0% | 3.1% | 5.05 | 5.12 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | STL | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 75 | 51 | 11 | 21.0% | 14.2% | 3.2% | 5.18 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 53 | 53 | 254 | 1062 | 274 | 146 | 19 | 25.8% | 13.8% | 1.8% | 3.26 | 3.64 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 42 | 200 | 837 | 216 | 115 | 15 | 25.8% | 13.8% | 1.8% | 3.26 | 3.64 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Quinn Mathews (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 23.6% | 14.4% | 2.3% | — | 4.53 | 23.5% | 10.1% | 359 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Damon Jones L 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.69 | 25.9% | 13.8% | 1.9% | .266 | 4.21 | 25.5% | 7.4% | 41 | +0.52 | 3.69 | 269 | 88 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.85 | 24.0% | 13.7% | 1.9% | .240 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 191 | 85 |
| Jack Choate L 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.27 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 282 | 83 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.87 | 19.2% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 236 | 79 |
| Hunter Owen L 2024 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 79 |
| Lael Lockhart L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.31 | 22.6% | 12.9% | 2.7% | .302 | 5.11 | 21.6% | 9.2% | 221 | +0.80 | 3.60 | 434 | 79 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.38 | 20.5% | 15.0% | 3.8% | .307 | 3.30 | 21.4% | 13.1% | 116 | -2.08 | 2.32 | 304 | 78 |
| Zack Thompson L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.56 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .355 | 4.78 | 24.1% | 10.1% | 107 | +0.22 | 2.03 | 402 | 78 |
| Sam Garcia L 2024 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 78 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2024 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 78 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2023 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 78 |
| Trey Dombroski L 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.76 | 20.1% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 329 | 78 |
| Nick Sando L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 20.6% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 154 | 77 |
| Kohl Drake L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.20 | 23.5% | 10.3% | 3.2% | .295 | 5.86 | 16.6% | 9.5% | 17 | +1.66 | 3.32 | 248 | 77 |
| Dalton Rogers L 2025 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.48 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 284 | 77 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.69 | 17.8% | 15.2% | 2.1% | .290 | 6.03 | 20.1% | 1.7% | 13 | +1.34 | 3.86 | 176 | 76 |
| Ethan Small L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.05 | 22.5% | 13.7% | 2.1% | .278 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 13.3% | 51 | -0.04 | 1.13 | 248 | 76 |
| Carson Palmquist L 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.4% | 13.5% | 3.5% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 322 | 75 |
| Rafe Schlesinger L 2023 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.38 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 0.8% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 104 | 75 |
| Bryan Sammons L 2025 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 21.1% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .287 | 6.27 | 18.5% | 6.7% | 158 | +1.99 | 3.40 | 665 | 74 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.1 | $9M | +$9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.9 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.7M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.6 | $3M | -$0.5M |
| Totals | $11M | $38M | +$27M | ||