Zack Thompson
P
Memphis Redbirds
Age 28
LHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION39 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.75
FIP4.91
xFIP4.36
SIERA4.02
K%22.3%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%10.2%
IP39
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
FB Velo
p1090.7
Whiff%
p4124.0%
K%
p6024.1%
xwOBA vs
p260.340
CU (14%)
SL-2.7 (27%)
FB-3.4 (36%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | 13 | 2 | 15 | 71 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 24.0% | 7.5% | 0.0% | 3.52 | 2.03 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 22 | 19 | 93 | 444 | 82 | 57 | 18 | 16.3% | 13.5% | 5.0% | 7.06 | 6.16 | -1.0 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 41 | 11 | 88 | 364 | 94 | 35 | 9 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 2.5% | 3.68 | 3.72 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 36 | 18 | 101 | 466 | 113 | 64 | 13 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 5.90 | 4.59 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 26 | 22 | 107 | 477 | 128 | 64 | 16 | 24.1% | 14.0% | 3.5% | 5.21 | 4.75 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | STL | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 37 | 20 | 5 | 22.3% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | STL | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 34 | 19 | 5 | 21.7% | 12.3% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | STL | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 31 | 19 | 5 | 21.0% | 12.6% | 3.6% | 5.14 | 5.28 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | STL | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 28 | 18 | 5 | 20.2% | 12.9% | 3.8% | 5.36 | 5.51 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | STL | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 25 | 17 | 5 | 19.4% | 13.3% | 4.1% | 5.60 | 5.77 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | STL | 28 | — | 28 | 118 | 22 | 16 | 5 | 18.6% | 13.8% | 4.4% | 5.87 | 6.05 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 138 | 72 | 404 | 1822 | 398 | 234 | 62 | 21.9% | 12.8% | 3.4% | 5.41 | 4.74 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 68 | 36 | 200 | 902 | 197 | 116 | 31 | 21.9% | 12.8% | 3.4% | 5.41 | 4.74 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zack Thompson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.91 | 22.3% | 12.0% | 3.3% | — | 5.28 | 21.0% | 8.4% | 106 | +0.37 | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 83 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 80 |
| Adam Loewen L 2029 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.90 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.32 | 2.96 | 176 | 78 |
| Will Lamb L 2024 · 5.47 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.47 | 20.0% | 14.0% | 4.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 178 | 76 |
| Marlon Arias L 2028 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.14 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.89 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.25 | 3.89 | 154 | 76 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.01 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 3.8% | .328 | 4.42 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.59 | 3.47 | 315 | 75 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 75 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 75 |
| Mike Minor L 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.50 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .330 | 3.78 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.72 | 2.42 | 807 | 75 |
| Brendan Nail L 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.43 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 165 | 73 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.20 | 25.5% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .329 | 4.44 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 59 | +0.24 | 2.66 | 230 | 72 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.93 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 244 | 72 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.04 | 15.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .324 | 4.73 | 19.8% | 6.5% | 53 | -0.31 | 3.33 | 228 | 72 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 176 | 72 |
| Chasen Shreve L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.91 | 26.4% | 11.5% | 4.7% | .311 | 4.24 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 141 | -0.67 | 3.94 | 470 | 72 |
| Kit Scheetz L 2025 · 5.20 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.20 | 16.2% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 195 | 71 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 5.97 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.97 | 20.9% | 11.5% | 5.8% | .250 | 4.31 | 25.4% | 16.0% | 62 | -1.66 | 2.51 | 190 | 71 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2027 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.34 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.01 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.33 | 3.47 | 512 | 71 |
| David Leal L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.71 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 3.0% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.36 | 443 | 71 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.98 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 122 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.