Zack Thompson
P
Memphis Redbirds
+0.0
WAR
Age 28
LHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
AAA
ERA5.11
FIP4.78
xFIP4.36
SIERA4.02
K%23.8%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%11.7%
IP39
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p1090.7
Whiff%
p4124.0%
K%
p6024.1%
xwOBA vs
p260.340
CU (14%)
SL-2.7 (27%)
FB-3.4 (36%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | 13 | 2 | 15 | 71 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 24.0% | 7.5% | 0.0% | 3.52 | 2.03 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 22 | 19 | 93 | 444 | 82 | 57 | 18 | 16.3% | 13.5% | 4.6% | 7.06 | 5.98 | -0.8 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 41 | 11 | 88 | 364 | 94 | 35 | 9 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 2.5% | 3.68 | 3.74 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 36 | 18 | 101 | 466 | 113 | 64 | 13 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 5.90 | 4.56 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 26 | 22 | 107 | 477 | 128 | 64 | 16 | 24.1% | 14.0% | 3.5% | 5.21 | 4.78 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | STL | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 37 | 20 | 5 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 5.13 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | STL | 38 | — | 38 | 163 | 36 | 20 | 5 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 5.04 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | STL | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 34 | 19 | 5 | 21.4% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 5.06 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | STL | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 32 | 19 | 5 | 20.8% | 12.3% | 3.4% | 5.13 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | STL | 35 | — | 35 | 146 | 30 | 18 | 5 | 20.2% | 12.5% | 3.5% | 5.22 | 5.29 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | STL | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 27 | 18 | 5 | 19.6% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 5.34 | 5.42 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | STL | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 25 | 17 | 5 | 18.9% | 12.9% | 3.7% | 5.47 | 5.55 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | STL | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 23 | 16 | 5 | 18.1% | 13.1% | 3.8% | 5.61 | 5.71 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 138 | 72 | 404 | 1822 | 398 | 234 | 60 | 21.9% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 5.41 | 4.70 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 68 | 36 | 200 | 902 | 197 | 116 | 30 | 21.9% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 5.41 | 4.70 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zack Thompson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.90 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 3.3% | — | 5.07 | 21.4% | 9.2% | 112 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.19 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .308 | 5.03 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.84 | 3.48 | 134 | 81 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 80 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 79 |
| Mike Minor L 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.65 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.9% | .330 | 3.73 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.92 | 2.38 | 807 | 79 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.57 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 78 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.26 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 4.2% | .328 | 4.44 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.82 | 3.41 | 315 | 78 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 77 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 77 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .317 | 4.77 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 269 | 76 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.82 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 244 | 76 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 5.95 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.95 | 20.9% | 11.5% | 5.8% | .250 | 4.30 | 25.4% | 16.0% | 62 | -1.65 | 2.50 | 190 | 76 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.05 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.14 | 246 | 75 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.16 | 15.5% | 11.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.04 | 19.8% | 6.5% | 53 | -0.12 | 3.29 | 228 | 75 |
| Mike Dunn L 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 74 |
| Marlon Arias L 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 74 |
| Dan Runzler L 2028 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.78 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.03 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.25 | 3.78 | 127 | 74 |
| Adrian Gusman L 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 2.7% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94 | 141 | 74 |
| Jacob Latz L 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.58 | 20.8% | 12.5% | 3.0% | .270 | 3.69 | 23.0% | 11.8% | 100 | -0.89 | 3.22 | 408 | 72 |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 2.3% | .265 | 3.56 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 166 | -0.67 | 3.06 | 299 | 72 |
| Trey Jeans L 2024 · 5.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.11 | 22.3% | 16.5% | 3.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 111 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.