Zack Thompson

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 29 LHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	24	MIX2 levels	41	11	88	3.68	3.49	25.8%	9.6%	1.1	K 23.6% · BB 9.9% · FIP 3.80
2023	25	MIX2 levels	36	18	101	5.90	4.44	24.2%	13.7%	1.1	K 23.0% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.48
2024	26	MIX2 levels	26	22	107	5.21	4.45	26.8%	13.4%	1.2	K 23.7% · BB 12.2% · FIP 4.64
2025	27	No MLB games played
2026	28	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	29	MLBSTL	1	1	7	4.48	4.66	21.9%	10.2%	0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBSTL	4	4	21	4.71	4.86	21.2%	10.4%	0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBSTL	4	4	25	4.94	5.10	20.5%	10.8%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

K%60

xwOBA vs26

FB Velo10

CompsMatt Whitehouse (age 28) · Danny Wirchansky (age 27) · Kelvin Marte (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105114vR 122

ERA4.48

FIP4.66

K%21.9%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%11.8%

Proj IP73

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.7

Whiff%

p4124.0%

p6024.1%

xwOBA vs

p260.340

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	2	15	71	23	4	0	15%	1.2	24.0%	7.5%	16.4%	0.0%	3.52	2.03	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	2	15	71	23	4	0	15%	1.2	32.4%	5.6%	26.8%	0.0%	3.52	0.88	—
2021	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	22	19	93	444	82	57	18	86%	4.2	16.3%	13.5%	2.8%	4.7%	7.06	6.02	—
2021	23	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	22	19	93	444	82	57	18	86%	4.2	18.5%	12.8%	5.6%	4.1%	7.06	5.69	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	11	88	364	94	35	9	27%	2.1	23.6%	9.9%	13.7%	2.6%	3.68	3.80	+0.8
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	11	88	364	94	35	9	27%	2.1	25.8%	9.6%	16.2%	2.5%	3.68	3.49	+1.1
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	18	101	466	113	64	13	50%	2.8	23.0%	12.9%	10.1%	3.1%	5.90	4.48	+1.1
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	18	101	466	113	64	13	50%	2.8	24.2%	13.7%	10.5%	2.8%	5.90	4.44	+1.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	107	477	128	64	16	85%	4.1	23.7%	12.2%	11.4%	3.6%	5.21	4.64	+1.0
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	107	477	128	64	16	85%	4.1	23.7%	12.2%	11.4%	3.6%	5.21	4.64	+1.0
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	107	477	128	64	16	85%	4.1	26.8%	13.4%	13.4%	3.4%	5.21	4.45	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			52	12	118	506	119	47	17	23%	2.3	23.5%	9.3%	14.2%	3.4%	4.50	4.15	+0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	STL	1	1	7	30	6	3	1	100%	7.0	21.9%	10.2%	11.8%	3.2%	4.48	4.66	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	STL	9	9	56	237	50	25	8	100%	6.2	21.2%	10.4%	10.8%	3.4%	4.71	4.86	+0.3
2029	31	MLB MLE	STL	8	8	46	194	40	21	7	100%	5.8	20.5%	10.8%	9.7%	3.6%	4.94	5.10	+0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	STL	4	4	21	89	19	9	3	100%	5.2	21.2%	10.4%	10.8%	3.4%	4.71	4.86	+0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	STL	4	4	25	106	22	11	4	100%	6.2	20.5%	10.8%	9.7%	3.6%	4.94	5.10	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	20	164	700	159	68	24	33%	2.7	22.8%	9.7%	13.1%	3.4%	4.59	4.27	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		73	24	200	854	194	83	29	33%	2.7	22.8%	9.7%	13.1%	3.4%	4.59	4.27	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		138	72	404	1822	395	220	62	52%	2.9	21.7%	12.1%	9.6%	3.4%	5.41	4.66	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	36	200	902	196	109	31	52%	2.9	21.7%	12.1%	9.6%	3.4%	5.41	4.66	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 90 IPFIP 3.98 → 4.23 (+0.25)K% 27.4% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.41%	—	×0.860	23.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.21%	—	×0.900	12.79%
HR / BF /BF	2.54%	÷1.020	×1.100	2.74%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 3.98 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 34 IPFIP 5.46 → 5.69 (+0.23)K% 22.9% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.91%	—	×0.860	19.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.79%	—	×0.900	19.61%
HR / BF /BF	2.79%	÷0.955	×1.100	3.22%

Result: FIP 5.46 → 5.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 53 IPFIP 3.23 → 3.66 (+0.43)K% 29.4% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.39%	—	×0.880	25.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.21%	—	×1.050	9.67%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷1.048	×1.100	2.76%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 3.23 → 3.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 93 IPFIP 5.39 → 6.02 (+0.62)K% 18.5% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.47%	—	×0.880	16.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.84%	—	×1.050	13.48%
HR / BF /BF	4.05%	÷0.949	×1.100	4.70%

Result: FIP 5.39 → 6.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 13 IPFIP 1.30 → 2.03 (+0.73)K% 31.1% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.15%	—	×0.770	23.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.56%	—	×1.150	7.54%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.912	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 1.30 → 2.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zack Thompson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	21.9%	10.2%	3.2%	—	4.97	20.9%	10.3%	102	+0.31	—	—	—
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	72
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	71
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	69
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	68
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	67
Scott Downs L 2005 · 4.22 FIP	29	SP-	4.22	18.4%	8.4%	2.9%	.283	3.29	20.5%	12.9%	206	-0.93	2.68	748	66
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	65
Edgar Olmos L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	27	SW	3.64	18.9%	9.7%	1.7%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	203	65
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	65
Onelki Garcia L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	16.5%	9.3%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	164	64
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	64
Brian Flynn L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	29	SW	4.49	17.7%	10.1%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	295	64
Everett Teaford L 2012 · 5.47 FIP	28	SW	5.47	13.3%	8.0%	4.5%	.291	4.42	13.9%	6.3%	103	-1.05	4.42	208	63
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	63
Miguel Pena L 2019 · 5.08 FIP	28	SW	5.08	16.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	282	63
Kyle Hart L 2022 · 5.24 FIP	29	SW	5.24	17.4%	9.9%	4.3%	.286	4.29	18.4%	9.5%	196	-0.95	3.60	886	63
Brad Mills L 2014 · 5.61 FIP	29	SP-	5.61	18.8%	10.9%	5.0%	.364	5.00	14.5%	4.0%	182	-0.61	4.22	243	62
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	62
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	60
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	59	22.2%	10.0%	1.30	4.60
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*