Kyle Hart
P
San Diego Padres
+0.0
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 33
LHP
6'5" / 200 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA5.22
FIP4.80
xFIP4.84
SIERA4.53
K%19.7%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%9.9%
IP94
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL5555
CMD4545
K†3040
FB Velo
p3093.1
Whiff%
p1014.6%
K%
p1011.7%
xwOBA vs
p470.315
SL (49%)
SI (23%)
FB-0.9 (29%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 4 | 4 | 12 | 49 | 19 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.31 | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | 22 | 19 | 117 | 473 | 109 | 39 | 5 | 17.4% | 9.6% | 1.4% | 2.15 | 3.60 | +2.3 |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 24 | 24 | 139 | 600 | 100 | 48 | 12 | 13.5% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 3.57 | 4.25 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | 27 | 24 | 156 | 635 | 140 | 52 | 11 | 18.7% | 8.7% | 1.9% | 3.52 | 3.68 | +2.9 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 4 | 3 | 11 | 67 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 19.4% | 14.9% | 6.5% | 15.55 | 6.93 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 23 | 20 | 107 | 465 | 90 | 47 | 19 | 17.0% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 4.22 | 4.98 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 24 | 10 | 82 | 358 | 74 | 33 | 13 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 4.3% | 5.25 | 5.23 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 19 | 18 | 89 | 388 | 86 | 35 | 10 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 2.5% | 4.53 | 4.04 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 40 | 16 | 107 | 460 | 89 | 47 | 15 | 18.0% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.81 | 4.68 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 6 | 0 | 11 | 45 | 6 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.91 | — | — |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | SD | 26 | — | 26 | 112 | 18 | 11 | 4 | 15.9% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 5.45 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | SD | — | — | 38 | 157 | 24 | 16 | 4 | 15.1% | 10.3% | 2.4% | 5.29 | 3.68 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | SD | 16 | 16 | 89 | 376 | 58 | 38 | 12 | 15.4% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 5.21 | 5.17 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 84 | 355 | 54 | 36 | 11 | 15.1% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 5.21 | 5.25 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 78 | 331 | 55 | 31 | 11 | 16.7% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 5.12 | 5.10 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 193 | 138 | 830 | 3540 | 620 | 341 | 92 | 17.5% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 4.03 | 4.27 | +9.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 33 | 200 | 853 | 149 | 82 | 22 | 17.5% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 4.03 | 4.27 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Hart (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.21 | 15.9% | 10.0% | 3.3% | — | 5.17 | 15.7% | 5.8% | 252 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.39 | 14.8% | 13.2% | 3.4% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 181 | 73 |
| Franklin Morales L 2024 · 4.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.03 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 101 | 72 |
| Dan Runzler L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.14 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .325 | 4.83 | 16.0% | 3.0% | 27 | +0.69 | 3.78 | 127 | 71 |
| Brett Cecil L 2025 · 5.56 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.56 | 12.1% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.88 | 191 | 70 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.27 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 70 |
| Craig Breslow L 2027 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 68 |
| Josh Outman L 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.09 | 12.7% | 10.7% | 3.1% | .322 | 6.57 | 12.9% | -5.6% | 34 | +1.48 | 4.54 | 106 | 68 |
| Wade Miley L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.03 | 17.9% | 13.4% | 1.4% | .311 | 3.99 | 17.3% | 9.7% | 336 | -0.04 | 3.34 | 1,167 | 67 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.27 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 2.6% | .286 | 3.59 | 17.8% | 6.4% | 52 | -0.68 | 3.59 | 190 | 66 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.12 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.9% | .316 | 6.64 | 18.4% | 12.3% | 21 | +2.52 | 3.14 | 564 | 66 |
| Brad Mills L 2024 · 6.15 FIP | 31 | SU | 6.15 | 14.4% | 11.8% | 5.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.66 | 182 | 66 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2025 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.97 | 15.2% | 7.0% | 4.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 159 | 66 |
| John Danks L 2024 · 5.92 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.92 | 16.0% | 11.0% | 5.1% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 200 | 65 |
| Paul Oseguera L 2025 · 5.60 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.60 | 5.6% | 12.5% | 2.5% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 162 | 65 |
| Jonathon Niese L 2025 · 5.66 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.66 | 10.9% | 8.2% | 4.4% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 368 | 65 |
| Yohan Flande L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.21 | 10.0% | 11.9% | 0.8% | .386 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 335 | 63 |
| Carlos Teller L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.86 | 13.1% | 14.2% | 2.0% | .365 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 333 | 62 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.03 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 280 | 62 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.08 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 145 | 61 |
| Dana Eveland L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.68 | 14.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.42 | 129 | 61 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.