Kyle Hart

P San Diego Padres

Age 34 LHP 6'5" / 200 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	30	AAASEA	19	18	89	4.53	3.81	22.2%	9.0%	—	K 19.1% · BB 8.1% · FIP 3.86
2025	32	MIX2 levels	40	16	107	4.81	4.58	19.3%	10.2%	-0.0	K 17.8% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.65
2026	33	MIX2 levels	57	4	79	5.38	3.88	22.2%	10.5%	0.6	K 21.5% · BB 10.2% · FIP 3.92
2027PROJ	34	MLBSD	7	7	47	4.68	4.85	18.4%	10.0%	0.3
2028PROJ88% MLB	35	MLBSD	3	3	22	4.99	5.19	17.5%	10.5%	0.1
2029PROJ79% MLB	36	MLBSD	1	1	9	5.33	5.56	16.4%	11.1%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs67

K%49

FB Velo44

Form5.01 ERA (proj 4.68) · K 22.8% (proj 18.4%) · BB 12.9% (proj 10.0%) · last 90d · 23 IP through Oct 27

CompsJuan Antonio Pena (age 37) · Luke Westphal (age 33) · Kwang Hyun Kim (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 114

ERA4.68

FIP4.85

K%18.4%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%8.5%

Proj IP51

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p3222.7%

p4922.0%

xwOBA vs

p670.295

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	23	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	4	4	12	49	19	2	0	100%	2.9	38.8%	4.1%	34.7%	0.0%	2.31	0.34	—
2016	23	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	4	4	12	49	19	2	0	100%	2.9	38.8%	4.1%	34.7%	0.0%	2.31	0.36	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	19	117	473	109	39	5	86%	5.3	17.4%	9.6%	7.8%	1.4%	2.15	3.60	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	19	117	473	109	39	5	86%	5.3	23.0%	8.2%	14.8%	1.1%	2.15	2.79	—
2018	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	24	24	139	600	100	48	12	100%	5.8	13.5%	8.8%	4.7%	2.1%	3.57	4.20	—
2018	25	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	24	24	139	600	100	48	12	100%	5.8	16.7%	8.0%	8.7%	2.0%	3.57	3.82	—
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	156	635	140	52	11	89%	5.8	18.7%	8.7%	10.0%	1.9%	3.52	3.68	—
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	24	156	635	140	52	11	89%	5.8	22.0%	8.2%	13.9%	1.7%	3.52	3.22	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	4	3	11	67	13	10	4	75%	2.8	19.4%	14.9%	4.5%	6.1%	15.55	6.71	-0.2
2020	27	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	4	3	11	67	13	10	4	75%	2.8	19.4%	14.9%	4.5%	6.0%	15.55	8.19	-0.3
2021	28	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	23	20	107	465	90	47	19	87%	4.6	17.0%	10.6%	6.4%	3.4%	4.22	4.88	—
2021	28	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	23	20	107	465	90	47	19	87%	4.6	19.4%	10.1%	9.2%	4.1%	4.22	5.05	—
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	10	82	358	74	33	13	42%	3.4	17.4%	9.9%	7.5%	4.3%	5.25	5.24	—
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	10	82	358	74	33	13	42%	3.4	20.7%	9.2%	11.5%	3.6%	5.25	4.56	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	19	18	89	388	86	35	10	95%	4.7	19.1%	8.1%	10.9%	2.4%	4.53	3.86	—
2023	30	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	19	18	89	388	86	35	10	95%	4.7	22.2%	9.0%	13.1%	2.6%	4.53	3.81	—
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	16	107	460	89	47	15	40%	2.7	17.8%	9.5%	8.3%	3.4%	4.81	4.65	-0.1
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	16	107	460	89	47	15	40%	2.7	17.8%	9.5%	8.3%	3.4%	4.81	4.65	-0.1
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	16	107	460	89	47	15	40%	2.7	19.3%	10.2%	9.1%	3.3%	4.81	4.58	-0.0
2026	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	4	79	334	74	35	8	7%	1.4	21.5%	10.2%	11.3%	2.4%	5.38	3.92	+0.6
2026	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	4	79	334	74	35	8	7%	1.4	21.5%	10.2%	11.3%	2.4%	5.38	3.92	+0.6
2026	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	4	79	334	74	35	8	7%	1.4	22.2%	10.5%	11.7%	2.4%	5.38	3.88	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			70	13	118	514	109	49	18	19%	1.7	21.2%	9.5%	11.7%	3.5%	6.25	4.48	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	SD	7	7	47	198	37	20	6	100%	6.7	18.4%	10.0%	8.5%	3.0%	4.68	4.85	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	SD	4	4	24	103	18	11	3	100%	6.1	17.5%	10.5%	7.0%	3.4%	4.99	5.19	+0.1
2029	36	MLB MLE	SD	2	2	11	47	8	5	2	100%	5.5	16.4%	11.1%	5.3%	3.8%	5.33	5.56	-0.0
2030	37	MLB MLE	SD	1	1	5	21	3	2	1	100%	5.0	15.3%	11.8%	3.6%	4.2%	5.71	5.96	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	SD	3	3	22	93	16	10	3	100%	7.3	17.5%	10.5%	7.0%	3.4%	4.99	5.19	+0.1
2029	36	MLB CTX	SD	1	1	9	38	6	4	1	100%	9.0	16.4%	11.1%	5.3%	3.8%	5.33	5.56	-0.0
2030	37	MLB CTX	SD	1	1	4	17	3	2	1	100%	4.0	15.3%	11.8%	3.6%	4.2%	5.71	5.96	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		75	18	152	657	133	64	23	24%	2.0	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	3.5%	6.01	4.56	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		99	24	200	865	175	84	30	24%	2.0	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	3.5%	6.01	4.56	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		244	142	898	3829	683	359	100	58%	3.7	17.8%	9.4%	8.5%	2.6%	4.14	4.21	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	32	200	853	152	80	22	58%	3.7	17.8%	9.4%	8.5%	2.6%	4.14	4.21	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 15 IPFIP 5.40 → 5.75 (+0.35)K% 22.7% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.73%	—	×0.860	19.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×0.900	12.27%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.40 → 5.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 64 IPFIP 4.24 → 4.45 (+0.21)K% 18.5% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.51%	—	×0.860	15.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.10%	—	×0.900	10.89%
HR / BF /BF	2.14%	÷0.981	×1.100	2.39%

Result: FIP 4.24 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAATacoma Rainiers · 89 IPFIP 3.79 → 3.86 (+0.08)K% 22.2% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.16%	—	×0.860	19.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.02%	—	×0.900	8.12%
HR / BF /BF	2.58%	÷1.157	×1.100	2.45%

Result: FIP 3.79 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 44 IPFIP 3.93 → 4.74 (+0.81)K% 22.8% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.83%	—	×0.810	18.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.61%	—	×1.100	8.37%
HR / BF /BF	3.26%	÷1.004	×1.200	3.90%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 3.93 → 4.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 38 IPFIP 5.14 → 5.77 (+0.63)K% 18.4% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.39%	—	×0.880	16.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.92%	—	×1.050	11.47%
HR / BF /BF	4.02%	÷0.939	×1.100	4.71%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 5.14 → 5.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 107 IPFIP 4.99 → 4.88 (−0.11)K% 19.4% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.35%	—	×0.880	17.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.11%	—	×1.050	10.61%
HR / BF /BF	4.09%	÷1.318	×1.100	3.41%

Result: FIP 4.99 → 4.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 100 IPFIP 3.63 → 3.95 (+0.32)K% 19.4% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.37%	—	×0.880	17.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.72%	—	×1.050	9.15%
HR / BF /BF	1.94%	÷1.038	×1.100	2.05%

Result: FIP 3.63 → 3.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 56 IPFIP 2.47 → 3.19 (+0.72)K% 27.0% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.03%	—	×0.810	21.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.21%	—	×1.100	7.93%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷0.953	×1.200	1.70%

Result: FIP 2.47 → 3.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Hart (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	5.31	17.1%	6.5%	36	+0.46	—	—	—
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	63
Luke Westphal L 2022 · 4.35 FIP	33	SW	4.35	24.2%	13.4%	2.9%	.302	5.19	15.7%	-0.7%	26	+0.84	2.97	294	62
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	146	61
Chris Narveson L 2016 · 4.59 FIP	34	SP-	4.59	16.2%	8.5%	3.2%	.253	4.59	12.2%	1.8%	103	+0.00	4.00	625	58
Alejandro Soto L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	33	SW	4.03	17.1%	6.9%	2.7%	.376	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	280	53
Chris Michalak L 2006 · 5.71 FIP	35	SP-	5.71	6.2%	8.6%	3.7%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	186	53
Tomas Solis L 2017 · 5.48 FIP	34	SP	5.48	11.3%	7.9%	4.2%	.322	6.44	8.9%	1.4%	57	+0.96	4.20	327	53
James Jones L 2023 · 4.67 FIP	34	SU	4.67	13.7%	11.5%	2.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	127	49
Orlando Lara L 2019 · 4.09 FIP	34	SP	4.09	22.0%	7.8%	3.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	426	47
Paul Oseguera L 2016 · 5.62 FIP	32	SP	5.62	5.6%	12.5%	2.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	162	45
Daniel Rodriguez L 2019 · 4.77 FIP	34	SP	4.77	20.8%	7.8%	4.5%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	391	44
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	188	44
Francisley Bueno L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	14.8%	7.1%	1.9%	.315	3.99	13.3%	6.6%	110	+0.22	2.43	188	42
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	42
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	42
Marlon Arias L 2019 · 4.83 FIP	34	SP	4.83	19.8%	11.2%	3.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	154	41
Arturo Lopez L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	34	SP	4.34	10.3%	5.4%	2.6%	.342	5.46	12.2%	5.4%	117	+1.12	4.34	445	40
Clay Rapada L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	34	SU	3.84	14.3%	8.0%	1.7%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	120	39
Hideki Okajima L 2010 · 4.27 FIP	34	SU	4.27	15.5%	7.0%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	238	39
Dan Runzler L 2019 · 4.84 FIP	34	SU	4.84	16.0%	13.0%	2.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.84	187	38

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	35	19.7%	9.9%	1.32	5.66
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27