Kyle Hart
P
San Diego Padres
Age 33
LHP
6'5" / 200 lbs
MLB
2026 ROS PROJECTION48 act + 103 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109118vR 127
ERA4.38
FIP4.79
K%17.9%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%7.7%
ROS IP103
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 151 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p1019.2%
K%
p3820.4%
xwOBA vs
p590.303
SL (46%)
SI (24%)
FB-0.9 (35%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 4 | 4 | 12 | 49 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 2.9 | 38.8% | 4.1% | 34.7% | 0.0% | 2.31 | 0.34 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 4 | 4 | 12 | 49 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 2.9 | 38.8% | 4.1% | 34.7% | 0.0% | 2.31 | 0.36 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 19 | 117 | 473 | 109 | 39 | 5 | 86% | 5.3 | 17.4% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 1.4% | 2.15 | 3.64 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 19 | 117 | 473 | 109 | 39 | 5 | 86% | 5.3 | 23.0% | 8.2% | 14.8% | 1.1% | 2.15 | 2.79 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 24 | 24 | 139 | 600 | 100 | 48 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 13.5% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 3.57 | 4.06 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 24 | 24 | 139 | 600 | 100 | 48 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.7% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 2.0% | 3.57 | 3.82 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 24 | 156 | 635 | 140 | 52 | 11 | 89% | 5.8 | 18.7% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 1.9% | 3.52 | 3.67 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 24 | 156 | 635 | 140 | 52 | 11 | 89% | 5.8 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 13.9% | 1.7% | 3.52 | 3.22 | — |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 4 | 3 | 11 | 67 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 75% | 2.8 | 19.4% | 14.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 15.55 | 6.60 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 4 | 3 | 11 | 67 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 75% | 2.8 | 19.4% | 14.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 15.55 | 8.19 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 23 | 20 | 107 | 465 | 90 | 47 | 19 | 87% | 4.6 | 17.0% | 10.6% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 4.22 | 4.51 | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 23 | 20 | 107 | 465 | 90 | 47 | 19 | 87% | 4.6 | 19.4% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 4.1% | 4.22 | 5.05 | — |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 10 | 82 | 358 | 74 | 33 | 13 | 42% | 3.4 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 5.25 | 5.32 | — |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 10 | 82 | 358 | 74 | 33 | 13 | 42% | 3.4 | 20.7% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 3.6% | 5.25 | 4.56 | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 19 | 18 | 89 | 388 | 86 | 35 | 10 | 95% | 4.7 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 2.2% | 4.53 | 3.84 | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 19 | 18 | 89 | 388 | 86 | 35 | 10 | 95% | 4.7 | 22.2% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 4.53 | 3.81 | — |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 16 | 107 | 460 | 89 | 47 | 15 | 40% | 2.7 | 18.0% | 10.6% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 4.81 | 4.90 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 16 | 107 | 460 | 89 | 47 | 15 | 40% | 2.7 | 19.3% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.58 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 34 | 1 | 48 | 203 | 43 | 20 | 7 | 3% | 1.4 | 20.3% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 5.77 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | SD | 98 | 0 | 103 | 435 | 78 | 44 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 4.38 | 4.79 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | SD | 98 | 0 | 103 | 435 | 78 | 44 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 4.38 | 4.79 | +0.7 |
| 2026 TOT | 33 | MLB | SD | — | — | 151 | 638 | 121 | 64 | 22 | — | — | 18.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 4.83 | 4.74 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 33 | MLB | SD | — | — | 137 | 577 | 121 | 64 | 22 | — | — | 20.9% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 3.8% | 5.35 | 4.85 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | SD | 19 | 19 | 124 | 525 | 90 | 52 | 19 | 100% | 6.5 | 17.1% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 4.99 | 5.28 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | SD | 17 | 17 | 112 | 471 | 78 | 49 | 18 | 100% | 6.6 | 16.5% | 10.3% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 5.28 | 5.54 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | SD | 18 | 18 | 118 | 498 | 85 | 50 | 18 | 100% | 6.6 | 17.1% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 4.99 | 5.28 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 102 | 431 | 71 | 44 | 17 | 100% | 6.8 | 16.5% | 10.3% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 5.28 | 5.54 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 178 | 43 | 410 | 1746 | 312 | 172 | 67 | 24% | 2.3 | 17.8% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 5.29 | 4.94 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 87 | 21 | 200 | 851 | 152 | 84 | 33 | 24% | 2.3 | 17.8% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 5.29 | 4.94 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 221 | 139 | 868 | 3698 | 655 | 356 | 95 | 63% | 3.9 | 17.7% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 4.12 | 4.23 | +11.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 32 | 200 | 852 | 151 | 82 | 22 | 63% | 3.9 | 17.7% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 4.12 | 4.23 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Hart (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.31 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.5% | — | 5.40 | 16.8% | 6.7% | 236 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Josh Outman L 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.26 | 12.7% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .322 | 6.40 | 12.9% | -5.6% | 34 | +1.14 | 4.70 | 106 | 66 |
| Jaime García L 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.76 | 19.8% | 11.4% | 3.4% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 540 | 66 |
| Cesár Ramos L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.17 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 225 | 65 |
| Everett Teaford L 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 65 |
| Francisco Liriano L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.23 | 19.4% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .322 | 4.77 | 19.5% | 7.4% | 204 | +0.54 | 3.07 | 650 | 64 |
| Luke Westphal L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.18 | 24.2% | 13.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 5.42 | 16.1% | -3.1% | 26 | +1.24 | 2.97 | 294 | 61 |
| Chris Narveson L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.83 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.57 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.26 | 4.40 | 249 | 60 |
| Derek Holland L 2026 · 5.76 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.76 | 25.1% | 8.4% | 6.8% | .280 | 4.71 | 21.5% | 11.3% | 89 | -1.05 | 3.76 | 686 | 59 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2024 · 5.04 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.04 | 10.0% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .373 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 175 | 59 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.11 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 146 | 59 |
| Carlos Teller L 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.69 | 13.1% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .365 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 333 | 56 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2026 · 6.22 FIP | 33 | SP- | 6.22 | 8.7% | 13.0% | 4.0% | .256 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 395 | 56 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 5.82 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.82 | 15.7% | 7.3% | 5.7% | .289 | 4.16 | 24.3% | 17.1% | 98 | -1.66 | 3.47 | 512 | 55 |
| Yohan Flande L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.20 | 10.0% | 11.9% | 0.8% | .386 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 335 | 53 |
| Orlando Lara L 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.45 | 14.7% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .346 | 4.05 | 22.0% | 14.2% | 104 | -0.40 | 3.82 | 426 | 51 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.51 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 3.0% | .286 | 3.60 | 17.8% | 6.4% | 52 | -0.91 | 3.60 | 190 | 50 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 50 |
| Héctor Santiago L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.40 | 28.4% | 9.3% | 4.6% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 713 | 50 |
| Dana Eveland L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.91 | 14.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.42 | 129 | 50 |
| Craig Breslow L 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.86 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.35 | 4.22 | 159 | 48 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 124 | 16.6% | 10.2% | 1.41 | 5.04 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |