Kyle Hart — OGILVIE

Kyle Hart P San Diego Padres

Age 33 LHP 6'5" / 200 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION76 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9098vR 106

ERA4.04

FIP4.39

K%19.3%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%10.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†3045

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p2722.1%

p5422.9%

xwOBA vs

p790.284

SL (40%)

SI (31%)

FB-0.9 (40%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	23	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	4	4	12	49	19	2	0	100%	2.9	38.8%	4.1%	34.7%	0.0%	2.31	0.34	—
2016	23	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	4	4	12	49	19	2	0	100%	2.9	38.8%	4.1%	34.7%	0.0%	2.31	0.36	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	19	117	473	109	39	5	86%	5.3	17.4%	9.6%	7.8%	1.4%	2.15	3.60	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	19	117	473	109	39	5	86%	5.3	23.0%	8.2%	14.8%	1.1%	2.15	2.79	—
2018	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	24	24	139	600	100	48	12	100%	5.8	13.5%	8.8%	4.7%	2.1%	3.57	4.20	—
2018	25	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	24	24	139	600	100	48	12	100%	5.8	16.7%	8.0%	8.7%	2.0%	3.57	3.82	—
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	156	635	140	52	11	89%	5.8	18.7%	8.7%	10.0%	1.9%	3.52	3.68	—
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	24	156	635	140	52	11	89%	5.8	22.0%	8.2%	13.9%	1.7%	3.52	3.22	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	4	3	11	67	13	10	4	75%	2.8	19.4%	14.9%	4.5%	6.1%	15.55	6.71	-0.2
2020	27	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	4	3	11	67	13	10	4	75%	2.8	19.4%	14.9%	4.5%	6.0%	15.55	8.19	-0.4
2021	28	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	23	20	107	465	90	47	19	87%	4.6	17.0%	10.6%	6.4%	3.4%	4.22	4.88	—
2021	28	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	23	20	107	465	90	47	19	87%	4.6	19.4%	10.1%	9.2%	4.1%	4.22	5.05	—
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	10	82	358	74	33	13	42%	3.4	17.4%	9.9%	7.5%	4.3%	5.25	5.24	—
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	10	82	358	74	33	13	42%	3.4	20.7%	9.2%	11.5%	3.6%	5.25	4.56	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	19	18	89	388	86	35	10	95%	4.7	18.4%	8.1%	10.3%	2.4%	4.53	3.92	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	19	18	89	388	86	35	10	95%	4.7	18.4%	8.1%	10.3%	2.4%	4.53	3.92	—
2023	30	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	19	18	89	388	86	35	10	95%	4.7	22.2%	9.0%	13.1%	2.6%	4.53	3.81	—
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	16	107	460	89	47	15	40%	2.7	17.4%	9.5%	7.9%	3.4%	4.81	4.68	-0.2
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	16	107	460	89	47	15	40%	2.7	17.4%	9.5%	7.9%	3.4%	4.81	4.68	-0.2
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	16	107	460	89	47	15	40%	2.7	19.3%	10.2%	9.1%	3.3%	4.81	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			66	13	115	495	107	42	18	20%	1.7	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	3.6%	5.77	4.37	+0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	53	4	76	315	72	28	8	8%	1.4	22.0%	8.6%	13.4%	2.6%	4.62	3.75	+0.7
YTD	33	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	53	4	76	315	72	28	8	8%	1.4	22.0%	8.6%	13.4%	2.6%	4.62	3.75	+0.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	AAA RAW	SD	11	0	15	66	15	9	3	0%	1.3	22.7%	13.6%	9.1%	4.5%	7.36	5.40	—
2026	33	MLB RAW	SD	42	4	61	249	57	19	5	10%	1.5	22.9%	7.6%	15.3%	2.0%	3.96	3.24	+1.0
SO FAR	33	MLB RAW	SD	42	4	61	249	57	19	5	10%	1.5	22.9%	7.6%	15.3%	2.0%	3.96	3.24	+1.0
ROS	33	MLB MLE	SD	6	0	6	27	5	2	1	0%	1.1	19.3%	9.0%	10.3%	3.3%	4.04	4.39	+0.0
ROS	33	MLB CTX	SD	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	19.3%	9.0%	10.3%	3.3%	4.04	4.39	+0.0
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	82	342	77	30	9	—	—	22.6%	8.9%	13.7%	2.6%	4.57	3.80	+0.9
FULL	33	MLB A+C	SD	—	—	68	286	77	30	9	—	—	27.0%	10.6%	16.4%	3.1%	5.57	3.87	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	SD	118	0	124	525	95	48	17	0%	1.1	18.1%	9.1%	9.0%	3.2%	4.60	4.86	-0.4
2028	35	MLB MLE	SD	106	0	112	471	81	46	17	0%	1.1	17.2%	9.7%	7.5%	3.5%	4.96	5.19	-0.8
2027	34	MLB CTX	SD	112	0	118	498	90	45	16	0%	1.1	18.1%	9.1%	9.0%	3.2%	4.60	4.86	-0.4
2028	35	MLB CTX	SD	97	0	102	431	74	42	15	0%	1.1	17.2%	9.7%	7.5%	3.5%	4.96	5.19	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		281	13	341	1449	276	131	50	5%	1.2	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	3.4%	5.09	4.53	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		165	8	200	849	162	77	29	5%	1.2	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	3.4%	5.09	4.53	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		240	142	895	3810	677	352	100	59%	3.7	17.8%	9.3%	8.5%	2.6%	4.07	4.21	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	32	200	851	151	79	22	59%	3.7	17.8%	9.3%	8.5%	2.6%	4.07	4.21	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Hart (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.16	15.8%	9.3%	3.3%	—	5.02	17.7%	8.3%	236	-0.14	—	—	—
David Huff L 2016 · 4.06 FIP	31	SW	4.06	19.5%	4.9%	3.6%	.384	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	158	70
Cesár Ramos L 2017 · 4.23 FIP	33	SW	4.23	16.7%	8.3%	2.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	225	67
Chris Narveson L 2015 · 4.79 FIP	33	SW	4.79	23.6%	8.0%	4.9%	.333	4.59	14.1%	4.5%	193	-0.20	4.59	249	65
Roenis Elías L 2022 · 4.06 FIP	33	SW	4.06	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.316	6.66	17.4%	12.2%	21	+2.60	3.15	564	65
Luke Westphal L 2022 · 4.35 FIP	33	SW	4.35	24.2%	13.4%	2.9%	.302	5.24	15.2%	-1.2%	26	+0.89	2.97	294	64
Josh Outman L 2017 · 5.08 FIP	32	SP-	5.08	12.7%	10.7%	3.1%	.322	6.73	12.9%	-5.6%	34	+1.65	4.53	106	61
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	61
Alejandro Soto L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	33	SW	4.03	17.1%	6.9%	2.7%	.376	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	280	59
Edgar Osuna L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	31	SW	5.09	10.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	175	57
Franklin Morales L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	31	SP-	4.02	15.0%	8.0%	2.2%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	101	57
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	146	56
Héctor Santiago L 2021 · 4.32 FIP	33	SW	4.32	28.4%	9.3%	4.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	713	55
Brandon Mann L 2017 · 4.24 FIP	33	SU	4.24	19.8%	11.3%	2.5%	.286	3.59	17.8%	6.4%	52	-0.65	3.59	190	55
Carlos Teller L 2019 · 4.90 FIP	32	SP-	4.90	13.1%	14.2%	2.0%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	333	54
Dana Eveland L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	33	SW	4.67	14.7%	4.7%	4.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.42	129	54
Craig Breslow L 2015 · 4.94 FIP	34	SU	4.94	16.4%	6.4%	4.4%	.279	4.42	16.2%	6.5%	94	-0.52	4.22	159	53
Francisco Liriano L 2017 · 4.35 FIP	33	SW	4.35	19.4%	11.6%	2.6%	.322	4.74	19.5%	7.4%	204	+0.39	3.14	650	52
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	49
Ross Detwiler L 2019 · 6.02 FIP	33	SP-	6.02	15.7%	7.3%	6.1%	.289	4.03	24.3%	17.1%	98	-1.99	3.49	512	49
Yohan Flande L 2019 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	10.0%	11.9%	0.8%	.386	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	335	48

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	124	17.0%	9.3%	1.30	4.78
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10