Danny Wirchansky
P
Arkansas Travelers
+0.0
WAR
Age 29
LHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA5.06
FIP5.06
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%17.9%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%7.9%
IP80
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF3030
CTRL4040
CMD3030
K†3045
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 27 | 17 | 111 | 446 | 89 | 30 | 10 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 2.84 | 4.53 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 28 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 24 | 11 | 68 | 292 | 47 | 34 | 8 | 13.0% | 12.8% | 4.2% | 4.52 | 5.93 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 80 | 340 | 53 | 41 | 11 | 15.5% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 5.53 | 5.53 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 78 | 330 | 59 | 36 | 11 | 18.0% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 5.28 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 75 | 318 | 58 | 35 | 11 | 18.1% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 5.21 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 72 | 306 | 55 | 34 | 11 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 3.5% | 5.21 | 5.24 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 52 | 32 | 10 | 18.0% | 11.1% | 3.5% | 5.27 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 49 | 31 | 10 | 17.6% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 5.37 | 5.43 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 45 | 30 | 10 | 17.2% | 11.6% | 3.8% | 5.48 | 5.55 | -0.4 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 41 | 29 | 9 | 16.8% | 11.8% | 3.9% | 5.60 | 5.68 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 51 | 28 | 179 | 738 | 110 | 70 | 27 | 14.9% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 3.48 | 5.08 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 31 | 200 | 826 | 123 | 78 | 30 | 14.9% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 3.48 | 5.08 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Danny Wirchansky (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.53 | 15.5% | 12.1% | 3.3% | — | 5.21 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 226 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .300 | 5.25 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.49 | 3.44 | 360 | 87 |
| Carlos Teller L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.85 | 14.3% | 10.7% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.72 | 12.6% | 1.1% | 148 | -0.13 | 3.74 | 333 | 86 |
| Everett Teaford L 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.43 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 103 | 81 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.04 | 10.6% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .345 | 5.08 | 10.0% | 2.8% | 83 | +0.04 | 5.04 | 175 | 81 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.38 | 12.8% | 7.0% | 2.7% | .367 | 4.09 | 14.6% | 9.1% | 128 | -0.29 | 3.98 | 280 | 78 |
| Travis Blackley L 2029 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.89 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .324 | 4.45 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.44 | 3.85 | 225 | 76 |
| Michael Roth L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.83 | 12.1% | 8.5% | 3.0% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 483 | 76 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2029 · 4.79 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | .301 | 4.73 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.06 | 4.33 | 445 | 75 |
| Amilcar Gaxiola L 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.56 | 11.8% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 321 | 74 |
| Jordan Carr L 2024 · 4.47 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.47 | 13.1% | 8.8% | 2.5% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 223 | 74 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.44 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 454 | 72 |
| Héctor Santiago L 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.51 | 17.3% | 11.6% | 4.4% | .259 | 4.87 | 21.3% | 9.6% | 216 | -0.64 | 4.34 | 713 | 71 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2024 · 4.92 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.92 | 13.0% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .366 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 147 | 69 |
| Henry Garcia L 2024 · 4.68 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.68 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.45 | 114 | 67 |
| Derek Holland L 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.50 | 14.5% | 7.2% | 3.1% | .292 | 4.92 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 391 | +0.42 | 3.76 | 686 | 66 |
| Matt Moore L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.66 | 18.3% | 8.5% | 3.7% | .334 | 5.48 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 92 | +0.82 | 2.83 | 845 | 66 |
| David Hurlbut L 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.84 | 13.9% | 6.5% | 3.8% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 478 | 64 |
| Kyle Hart L 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.23 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 4.3% | .286 | 4.39 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 196 | -0.84 | 3.60 | 808 | 64 |
| Jonathon Niese L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.14 | 16.1% | 8.1% | 4.3% | .308 | 5.66 | 10.9% | 2.7% | 70 | +0.52 | 4.17 | 368 | 64 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.45 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .356 | 4.80 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.65 | 3.45 | 512 | 64 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.