Daniel Camarena
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
+0.0
WAR
Age 33
LHP
6'0" / 210 lbs
AAA
ERA5.12
FIP5.12
xFIP5.28
SIERA4.70
K%19.4%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%9.4%
IP50
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†4545
SL-1.9
FB-3.0
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 29 | 22 | 142 | 575 | 114 | 24 | 14 | 16.3% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 3.68 | 3.76 | +2.5 |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 22 | 22 | 118 | 497 | 78 | 31 | 8 | 13.1% | 6.8% | 1.8% | 3.65 | 3.85 | +2.0 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 25 | 24 | 126 | 570 | 100 | 51 | 13 | 15.9% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 5.30 | 4.32 | +1.4 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 18 | 16 | 103 | 447 | 94 | 21 | 22 | 18.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.27 | 4.94 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 28 | 19 | 93 | 413 | 69 | 31 | 13 | 14.9% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 5.24 | 4.45 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 30 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 25 | 17 | 70 | 313 | 54 | 16 | 9 | 14.0% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 6.20 | 4.82 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 31 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 32 | 9 | 59 | 286 | 42 | 33 | 18 | 13.4% | 12.2% | 6.3% | 7.74 | 6.97 | -1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | SD | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 41 | 21 | 8 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | 5.12 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | SD | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 39 | 20 | 7 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 5.11 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | SD | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 37 | 20 | 7 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 5.14 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | SD | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 34 | 19 | 7 | 19.2% | 10.5% | 3.8% | 5.22 | 5.30 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 179 | 129 | 711 | 3101 | 476 | 223 | 103 | 15.4% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 5.13 | 4.54 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 36 | 200 | 873 | 134 | 63 | 29 | 15.4% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 5.13 | 4.54 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Daniel Camarena (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.12 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | — | 5.22 | 19.4% | 9.1% | 135 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.27 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 2.6% | .286 | 3.59 | 17.8% | 6.4% | 52 | -0.68 | 3.59 | 190 | 84 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.27 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 78 |
| Neal Cotts L 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 78 |
| Craig Breslow L 2027 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 77 |
| Dan Runzler L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.14 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .325 | 4.83 | 16.0% | 3.0% | 27 | +0.69 | 3.78 | 127 | 76 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.12 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.9% | .316 | 6.64 | 18.4% | 12.3% | 21 | +2.52 | 3.14 | 564 | 74 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.19 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 3.7% | .304 | 3.80 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 152 | -0.39 | 1.81 | 421 | 74 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.03 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 280 | 74 |
| Boone Logan L 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.22 | 24.1% | 12.1% | 4.8% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 113 | 74 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 5.86 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.86 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 6.1% | .320 | 3.43 | 24.4% | 15.6% | 97 | -2.43 | 2.19 | 195 | 73 |
| David Huff L 2024 · 4.07 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.07 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 158 | 73 |
| Chris Narveson L 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.81 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.63 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.18 | 4.62 | 249 | 73 |
| Luke Westphal L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.42 | 24.2% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .302 | 5.50 | 16.1% | -3.1% | 26 | +1.08 | 2.97 | 294 | 72 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.08 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 145 | 71 |
| Franklin Morales L 2024 · 4.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.03 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 101 | 71 |
| Edward Paredes L 2025 · 5.13 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.13 | 21.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 130 | 70 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2025 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.97 | 15.2% | 7.0% | 4.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 159 | 70 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.45 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 5.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 256 | 70 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.39 | 14.8% | 13.2% | 3.4% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 181 | 69 |
| Josh Outman L 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.09 | 12.7% | 10.7% | 3.1% | .322 | 6.57 | 12.9% | -5.6% | 34 | +1.48 | 4.54 | 106 | 69 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.