Hayden Mullins — OGILVIE

Hayden Mullins P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 25 LHP 6'0" / 194 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.9 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION96 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%23.0%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%9.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 102 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5045

CTRL3540

CMD4545

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	6	27	15	5	0	100%	1.6	55.6%	18.5%	37.0%	0.0%	5.68	0.75	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	6	27	15	5	0	100%	1.6	55.6%	18.5%	37.0%	0.0%	5.68	0.75	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	4	6	27	15	5	0	100%	1.6	55.6%	18.5%	37.0%	0.0%	5.68	0.73	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	22	17	89	389	118	42	10	77%	4.0	23.4%	12.4%	10.9%	3.1%	3.94	4.39	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	22	17	89	389	118	42	10	77%	4.0	23.4%	12.4%	10.9%	3.1%	3.94	4.39	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	22	17	89	389	118	42	10	77%	4.0	30.3%	10.8%	19.5%	2.6%	3.94	3.32	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	102	410	123	51	7	95%	4.6	24.0%	13.7%	10.3%	1.8%	2.21	3.82	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	102	410	123	51	7	95%	4.6	24.0%	13.7%	10.3%	1.8%	2.21	3.82	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	102	410	123	51	7	95%	4.6	30.0%	12.4%	17.6%	1.7%	2.21	3.08	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	23	21	96	409	135	53	7	91%	4.2	27.1%	13.7%	13.5%	1.8%	3.95	3.54	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	23	21	96	409	135	53	7	91%	4.2	27.1%	13.7%	13.5%	1.8%	3.95	3.54	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	BOS	22	20	93	394	132	49	6	91%	4.2	33.5%	12.4%	21.1%	1.5%	3.98	2.68	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	BOS	1	1	3	15	3	4	1	100%	3.0	20.0%	26.7%	-6.7%	6.7%	3.00	8.45	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	BOS	1	1	6	25	6	3	1	100%	5.9	23.0%	14.0%	9.0%	2.7%	4.78	4.78	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	102	434	141	56	8	—	—	32.4%	13.0%	19.4%	1.8%	4.00	3.62	+1.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	94	396	91	53	11	100%	5.9	23.1%	13.3%	9.7%	2.7%	4.71	4.70	+0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	92	390	90	51	11	100%	6.2	23.0%	13.0%	10.0%	2.8%	4.69	4.71	+0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	90	378	86	49	11	100%	6.0	22.8%	12.9%	9.9%	2.9%	4.72	4.77	+0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	86	361	81	47	11	100%	6.1	22.6%	13.0%	9.6%	3.0%	4.81	4.88	+0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	80	339	75	45	11	100%	6.2	22.2%	13.3%	8.9%	3.2%	4.96	5.06	-0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	BOS	7	7	41	173	40	23	5	100%	5.9	23.1%	13.3%	9.7%	2.6%	4.67	4.66	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	59	249	57	32	7	100%	5.9	23.0%	13.0%	10.0%	2.7%	4.65	4.67	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	68	287	65	37	8	100%	6.2	22.8%	12.9%	9.9%	2.8%	4.68	4.73	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	70	296	67	38	9	100%	5.8	22.6%	13.0%	9.6%	3.0%	4.77	4.84	+0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	69	291	65	39	9	100%	5.8	22.2%	13.3%	8.9%	3.2%	4.92	5.02	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	51	306	1293	293	169	37	100%	6.0	22.7%	13.1%	9.6%	2.9%	4.75	4.42	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	191	110	24	100%	6.0	22.7%	13.1%	9.6%	2.9%	4.75	4.42	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		71	63	293	1235	315	166	27	89%	4.1	25.5%	13.4%	12.1%	2.2%	3.38	3.84	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	43	200	844	216	113	18	89%	4.1	25.5%	13.4%	12.1%	2.2%	3.38	3.84	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hayden Mullins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	23.0%	14.0%	2.7%	—	4.73	23.0%	9.9%	276	-0.05	—	—	—
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	83
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	82
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	79
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.79	18.9%	3.1%	13	+1.10	3.85	176	79
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	78
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	78
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	78
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.73	19.6%	8.6%	256	-0.66	4.16	461	77
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	77
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	77
Damon Jones L 2019 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP	3.71	25.9%	13.8%	1.9%	.266	4.21	25.5%	7.4%	41	+0.50	3.71	269	77
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	75
Austin Krob L 2023 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.9%	10.7%	1.5%	.329	4.00	17.4%	7.1%	171	+0.41	3.59	280	75
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	74
Brycen Mautz L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	22	SP	3.62	18.7%	11.6%	1.1%	.308	4.61	20.1%	9.7%	322	+0.99	3.62	426	74
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	74
Adam Scott L 2021 · 4.53 FIP	25	SP	4.53	22.8%	11.7%	3.4%	.289	5.05	19.0%	4.1%	122	+0.52	4.17	315	74
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	73
Ethan Small L 2022 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP-	4.07	22.5%	13.7%	2.1%	.278	3.94	23.7%	13.6%	51	-0.13	1.13	248	73
Shane Drohan L 2023 · 5.18 FIP	24	SP	5.18	19.3%	12.1%	4.0%	.308	3.49	24.7%	15.9%	190	-1.69	2.88	532	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	85	22.8%	13.2%	1.11	4.77
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15