Hayden Mullins

P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 26 LHP 6'0" / 194 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033

OGV OFP35OGV rank#638ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	A+BOS	22	17	89	3.94	3.32	30.3%	10.8%	—	K 23.4% · BB 12.4% · FIP 4.39
2025	24	MIX2 levels	22	21	102	2.21	3.08	30.0%	12.4%	—	K 24.0% · BB 13.7% · FIP 3.82
2026	25	MIX2 levels	23	21	96	3.95	2.89	33.0%	13.0%	—	K 27.1% · BB 13.7% · FIP 3.54
2027PROJ	26	MLBBOS	1	1	2	4.54	4.54	25.7%	14.6%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBBOS	6	6	38	4.49	4.51	25.4%	14.0%	0.4
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBBOS	9	9	54	4.53	4.57	25.0%	13.7%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$1M2031Arb-2$1M2032Arb-3$1.0M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 4.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 87%

CompsTate Kuehner (age 23) · Christian MacLeod (age 24) · Zack Thompson (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%25.7%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%11.1%

Proj IP122

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$9M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.6M
2031	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M
2032	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	6	27	15	5	0	100%	1.6	55.6%	18.5%	37.0%	0.0%	5.68	0.75	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	4	6	27	15	5	0	100%	1.6	55.6%	18.5%	37.0%	0.0%	5.68	0.73	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	22	17	89	389	118	42	10	77%	4.0	23.4%	12.4%	10.9%	3.1%	3.94	4.39	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	22	17	89	389	118	42	10	77%	4.0	23.4%	12.4%	10.9%	3.1%	3.94	4.39	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	22	17	89	389	118	42	10	77%	4.0	30.3%	10.8%	19.5%	2.6%	3.94	3.32	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	102	410	123	51	7	95%	4.6	24.0%	13.7%	10.3%	1.8%	2.21	3.82	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	102	410	123	51	7	95%	4.6	24.0%	13.7%	10.3%	1.8%	2.21	3.82	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	102	410	123	51	7	95%	4.6	30.0%	12.4%	17.6%	1.7%	2.21	3.08	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	96	409	135	53	7	91%	4.2	27.1%	13.7%	13.5%	1.8%	3.95	3.54	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	96	409	135	53	7	91%	4.2	27.1%	13.7%	13.5%	1.8%	3.95	3.54	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	96	409	135	53	7	91%	4.2	33.0%	13.0%	20.0%	1.7%	3.95	2.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	BOS	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	25.7%	14.6%	11.1%	2.5%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	BOS	17	17	102	429	109	60	11	100%	6.0	25.4%	14.0%	11.3%	2.6%	4.53	4.55	+1.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	91	384	96	53	11	100%	6.1	25.0%	13.7%	11.3%	2.7%	4.57	4.61	+0.8
2030	29	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	83	350	86	48	10	100%	5.9	24.6%	13.6%	10.9%	2.9%	4.66	4.72	+0.7
2031	30	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	75	315	76	43	10	100%	6.2	24.2%	13.8%	10.4%	3.1%	4.80	4.89	+0.4
2032	31	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	66	280	67	40	9	100%	6.0	23.8%	14.1%	9.6%	3.3%	4.98	5.09	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	38	160	41	22	4	100%	6.3	25.4%	14.0%	11.3%	2.5%	4.49	4.51	+0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	54	228	57	31	6	100%	6.0	25.0%	13.7%	11.3%	2.7%	4.53	4.57	+0.5
2030	29	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	59	249	61	34	7	100%	5.9	24.6%	13.6%	10.9%	2.8%	4.62	4.68	+0.5
2031	30	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	59	249	60	34	8	100%	5.9	24.2%	13.8%	10.4%	3.0%	4.76	4.85	+0.3
2032	31	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	55	232	55	33	8	100%	6.1	23.8%	14.1%	9.6%	3.2%	4.93	5.04	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		44	44	265	1118	274	155	32	100%	6.0	24.5%	13.8%	10.7%	2.9%	4.68	4.37	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	207	117	24	100%	6.0	24.5%	13.8%	10.7%	2.9%	4.68	4.37	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		71	63	293	1235	315	166	27	89%	4.1	25.5%	13.4%	12.1%	2.2%	3.38	3.84	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	43	200	844	216	113	18	89%	4.1	25.5%	13.4%	12.1%	2.2%	3.38	3.84	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 93 IPFIP 2.68 → 3.54 (+0.86)K% 33.5% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.50%	—	×0.810	27.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.44%	—	×1.100	13.68%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.83%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.68 → 3.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 85 IPFIP 3.47 → 4.15 (+0.69)K% 27.7% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.67%	—	×0.810	22.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.83%	—	×1.100	15.22%
HR / BF /BF	1.73%	÷1.119	×1.200	1.85%

Result: FIP 3.47 → 4.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greenville Drive · 17 IPFIP 0.96 → 1.98 (+1.03)K% 42.9% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.86%	—	×0.770	33.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×1.150	5.48%
HR / BF /BF	1.59%	÷1.117	×1.250	1.78%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 0.96 → 1.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greenville Drive · 89 IPFIP 3.32 → 4.39 (+1.07)K% 30.3% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.33%	—	×0.770	23.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.80%	—	×1.150	12.42%
HR / BF /BF	2.57%	÷1.043	×1.250	3.08%

Result: FIP 3.32 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hayden Mullins (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.5%	—	4.62	25.0%	11.2%	275	+0.08	—	—	—
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	77
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	73
Zack Thompson L 2024 · 4.64 FIP	26	SP	4.64	23.7%	12.2%	3.6%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.03	402	73
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	68
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2016 · 3.46 FIP	26	SP	3.46	18.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.334	3.92	19.3%	9.9%	209	+0.46	3.46	440	68
Kaz Ishii L 2002 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	20.7%	14.9%	2.9%	.275	4.94	16.1%	2.9%	410	+0.11	4.51	564	68
Mitch Farris L 2024 · 3.45 FIP	23	SP-	3.45	23.3%	10.7%	1.8%	.304	4.33	22.7%	11.2%	222	+0.88	3.45	327	68
Ken Waldichuk L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	25	SP-	5.01	20.7%	11.0%	4.1%	.303	5.78	21.8%	6.9%	51	+0.77	3.51	432	67
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	67
Doug Nikhazy L 2024 · 4.12 FIP	24	SP	4.12	21.3%	10.5%	2.7%	.233	5.25	19.2%	7.9%	135	+1.13	4.12	463	67
Trenton Wallace L 2024 · 5.16 FIP	25	SP	5.16	21.8%	11.8%	4.4%	.263	4.69	24.2%	10.2%	52	-0.47	2.87	286	67
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	66
Austin Krob L 2024 · 3.75 FIP	24	SP	3.75	18.2%	9.0%	1.9%	.333	4.61	16.0%	2.1%	47	+0.86	3.59	280	66
Will Dion L 2024 · 4.97 FIP	24	SP	4.97	19.3%	9.4%	4.2%	.309	3.39	23.5%	16.3%	186	-1.58	3.14	535	66
Tyson Guerrero L 2024 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	18.8%	11.2%	2.9%	.268	5.58	23.9%	8.4%	19	+1.06	4.26	250	66
Lael Lockhart L 2024 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP	5.03	23.3%	10.4%	4.7%	.285	4.82	18.1%	6.9%	186	-0.21	3.59	520	65
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	65
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	65
Matt Krook L 2021 · 3.38 FIP	26	SP	3.38	25.4%	14.3%	1.1%	.246	4.22	24.8%	11.0%	216	+0.84	2.37	633	64
Mason Green L 2024 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP-	4.80	18.7%	12.6%	3.1%	.307	3.85	18.2%	6.4%	157	-0.95	3.68	450	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	90	24.9%	14.0%	1.09	4.65
Bob Gibson ('83-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.3	67	20.4%*	14.0%*	1.14*	4.52*
Dennis Higgins ('66-'72, 1 WAR*)	2.1	82	24.5%*	12.2%*	0.94*	4.34*
Doug Capilla ('76-'81, 1 WAR*)	1.5	73	20.1%*	13.5%*	0.98*	4.78*
Rob Tejeda ('05-'11, 3 WAR*)	2.2	74	21.8%*	12.6%*	1.00*	4.23*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42