Hayden Mullins
P
Portland Sea Dogs
Age 25
LHP
6'0" / 194 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.8 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109118vR 127
ERA4.77
FIP4.77
K%23.0%
BB%14.2%
K-BB%8.8%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 116 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 1.6 | 55.6% | 18.5% | 37.0% | 0.0% | 5.68 | 0.75 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 1.6 | 55.6% | 18.5% | 37.0% | 0.0% | 5.68 | 0.73 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 22 | 17 | 89 | 389 | 118 | 42 | 10 | 77% | 4.0 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 3.94 | 4.33 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 22 | 17 | 89 | 389 | 118 | 42 | 10 | 77% | 4.0 | 30.3% | 10.8% | 19.5% | 2.6% | 3.94 | 3.32 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 21 | 102 | 410 | 123 | 51 | 7 | 95% | 4.6 | 24.0% | 13.7% | 10.3% | 1.7% | 2.21 | 3.72 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 21 | 102 | 410 | 123 | 51 | 7 | 95% | 4.6 | 30.0% | 12.4% | 17.6% | 1.7% | 2.21 | 3.08 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 14 | 13 | 52 | 230 | 76 | 35 | 7 | 93% | 3.7 | 27.5% | 15.9% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 5.92 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 63 | 39 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.0% | 14.2% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.77 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | BOS | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 14.2% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.78 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 116 | 504 | 139 | 74 | 14 | — | — | 27.6% | 14.7% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 5.28 | 4.71 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 23.0% | 14.2% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.78 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 69 | 40 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.2% | 13.7% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 4.71 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 68 | 39 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.2% | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 4.71 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 65 | 38 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.1% | 13.4% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.74 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 62 | 36 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.83 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 30 | 18 | 3 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.2% | 13.7% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.72 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 43 | 25 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.2% | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.71 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 50 | 29 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 23.1% | 13.4% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.75 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 50 | 30 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 30 | 178 | 753 | 174 | 101 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.76 | 4.41 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 113 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.76 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 62 | 55 | 249 | 1056 | 268 | 146 | 26 | 89% | 4.0 | 25.3% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 2.5% | 3.69 | 4.07 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 44 | 200 | 849 | 215 | 117 | 21 | 89% | 4.0 | 25.3% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 2.5% | 3.69 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hayden Mullins (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.77 | 23.0% | 14.2% | 2.6% | — | 4.73 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 206 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.69 | 17.8% | 15.2% | 2.1% | .290 | 6.22 | 20.1% | 1.7% | 13 | +1.53 | 3.89 | 176 | 80 |
| Kohl Drake L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.34 | 23.5% | 10.3% | 3.5% | .295 | 5.13 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 66 | +0.79 | 3.28 | 297 | 76 |
| Damon Jones L 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.85 | 25.9% | 13.8% | 2.2% | .266 | 4.25 | 25.5% | 7.4% | 41 | +0.40 | 3.85 | 269 | 76 |
| Zach Thornton L 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 76 |
| Caden Grice L 2025 · 5.28 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.28 | 17.3% | 15.5% | 3.1% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 76 |
| Rio Britton L 2024 · 4.77 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.77 | 22.0% | 15.8% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 128 | 75 |
| Quinn Mathews L 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.07 | 26.2% | 15.5% | 4.0% | .207 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.73 | 316 | 75 |
| Connor Oliver L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.91 | 19.6% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 200 | 74 |
| Ethan Small L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.14 | 22.5% | 13.7% | 2.2% | .278 | 4.22 | 25.1% | 13.3% | 51 | +0.08 | 1.13 | 248 | 73 |
| Adam Scott L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.71 | 22.8% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .289 | 5.15 | 19.3% | 3.3% | 122 | +0.44 | 4.53 | 315 | 72 |
| Cole Reynolds L 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.26 | 17.3% | 16.9% | 2.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.81 | 108 | 72 |
| Jojo Ingrassia L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.97 | 26.7% | 13.8% | 2.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.60 | 112 | 72 |
| David Peterson L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.46 | 24.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .298 | 3.65 | 24.2% | 14.0% | 401 | -0.81 | 2.80 | 1,080 | 71 |
| Brett Adcock L 2024 · 5.22 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.22 | 17.4% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 301 | 71 |
| Braden Davis L 2024 · 5.30 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.30 | 21.5% | 15.6% | 3.7% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 183 | 71 |
| James Paxton L 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.26 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .288 | 3.00 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.26 | 2.48 | 924 | 71 |
| Jacob Latz L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.49 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.58 | 24.2% | 11.8% | 160 | +0.09 | 2.43 | 453 | 71 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.2% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .322 | 5.90 | 28.8% | 13.9% | 13 | +2.06 | 3.84 | 249 | 71 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2024 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 71 |
| Misael Siverio L 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.00 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .343 | 4.52 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.52 | 4.00 | 185 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 68 | 23.1% | 13.6% | 1.06 | 4.75 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |