Hayden Mullins
P
Portland Sea Dogs
+0.7
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'0" / 194 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.0 · 2027
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.5%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%11.4%
IP97
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | 4 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 15 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.68 | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 22 | 17 | 89 | 389 | 118 | 42 | 10 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 3.94 | 4.40 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 22 | 21 | 102 | 410 | 123 | 51 | 7 | 24.0% | 13.7% | 1.9% | 2.21 | 3.85 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 2 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 9.53 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | BOS | 18 | 18 | 97 | 411 | 96 | 49 | 11 | 23.5% | 12.0% | 2.7% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 103 | 439 | 107 | 56 | 11 | 24.5% | 12.9% | 2.5% | 4.77 | 4.24 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 19 | 104 | 441 | 104 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 106 | 51 | 12 | 23.4% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 20 | 20 | 108 | 456 | 106 | 51 | 13 | 23.3% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.46 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 19 | 106 | 446 | 103 | 50 | 13 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.50 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 19 | 102 | 432 | 99 | 49 | 13 | 22.9% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.56 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 18 | 18 | 99 | 417 | 95 | 48 | 12 | 22.7% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.64 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 17 | 17 | 95 | 400 | 90 | 46 | 12 | 22.4% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.72 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 16 | 16 | 90 | 382 | 85 | 45 | 12 | 22.1% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 4.76 | 4.82 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 16 | 16 | 86 | 363 | 79 | 43 | 12 | 21.8% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 4.86 | 4.93 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 15 | 15 | 81 | 342 | 73 | 42 | 11 | 21.4% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 5.05 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 73 | 37 | 11 | 22.9% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 4.94 | 4.92 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 50 | 44 | 203 | 854 | 215 | 117 | 20 | 25.2% | 13.6% | 2.3% | 3.29 | 3.97 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 43 | 200 | 843 | 212 | 115 | 20 | 25.2% | 13.6% | 2.3% | 3.29 | 3.97 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hayden Mullins (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 23.5% | 12.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.45 | 23.4% | 12.1% | 320 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Jack Choate L 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.27 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 282 | 85 |
| Damon Jones L 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.69 | 25.9% | 13.8% | 1.9% | .266 | 4.21 | 25.5% | 7.4% | 41 | +0.52 | 3.69 | 269 | 85 |
| Hunter Owen L 2024 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 84 |
| Sam Garcia L 2024 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 83 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.87 | 19.2% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 236 | 82 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2024 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 82 |
| Kohl Drake L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.20 | 23.5% | 10.3% | 3.2% | .295 | 5.86 | 16.6% | 9.5% | 17 | +1.66 | 3.32 | 248 | 81 |
| Lael Lockhart L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.31 | 22.6% | 12.9% | 2.7% | .302 | 5.11 | 21.6% | 9.2% | 221 | +0.80 | 3.60 | 434 | 81 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2023 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 80 |
| Nick Sando L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 20.6% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 154 | 80 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.38 | 20.5% | 15.0% | 3.8% | .307 | 3.30 | 21.4% | 13.1% | 116 | -2.08 | 2.32 | 304 | 80 |
| Trey Dombroski L 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.76 | 20.1% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 329 | 79 |
| Nick Maronde L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .359 | 3.62 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.20 | 3.62 | 133 | 79 |
| Zack Thompson L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.56 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .355 | 4.78 | 24.1% | 10.1% | 107 | +0.22 | 2.03 | 402 | 79 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.69 | 17.8% | 15.2% | 2.1% | .290 | 6.03 | 20.1% | 1.7% | 13 | +1.34 | 3.86 | 176 | 79 |
| Adam Wolf L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.91 | 19.4% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .292 | 4.19 | 16.8% | 5.9% | 109 | +0.28 | 3.91 | 383 | 78 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 78 |
| Misael Siverio L 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 77 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .313 | 3.83 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.16 | 3.41 | 440 | 77 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.00 | 16.7% | 11.9% | 3.3% | .273 | 5.89 | 16.9% | 6.7% | 89 | +0.89 | 3.67 | 331 | 77 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| Totals | $7M | $30M | +$24M | ||