Lael Lockhart

P Arkansas Travelers

Age 29 LHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	27	24	121	4.54	4.10	27.5%	11.2%	—	K 23.3% · BB 10.4% · FIP 5.03
2025	27	MIX3 levels	25	23	104	4.41	3.94	23.4%	12.4%	—	K 18.9% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.79
2026	28	MIX2 levels	26	17	100	5.04	4.35	21.1%	10.8%	—	K 17.4% · BB 11.0% · FIP 4.85
2027PROJ	29	MLBDET	1	1	1	5.37	5.37	17.8%	12.3%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBDET	3	3	17	5.37	5.44	18.0%	12.3%	-0.0
2029PROJ51% MLB	31	MLBDET	4	4	23	5.45	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control40Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsDanny Wirchansky (age 27) · Carlos Teller (age 29) · John Anderson (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119127vR 135

ERA5.37

FIP5.37

K%17.8%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%5.5%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	14	57	25	7	1	0%	1.4	33.4%	15.2%	18.2%	2.5%	3.95	3.59	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	14	57	25	7	1	0%	1.4	43.9%	12.3%	31.6%	1.8%	3.95	1.93	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	16	112	477	114	41	7	59%	4.1	18.6%	9.7%	9.0%	1.8%	3.71	3.74	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	16	112	477	114	41	7	59%	4.1	23.9%	8.6%	15.3%	1.5%	3.71	2.97	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	13	94	407	112	47	9	48%	3.5	22.6%	12.9%	9.7%	2.7%	4.13	4.29	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	13	94	407	112	47	9	48%	3.5	27.5%	11.5%	16.0%	2.2%	4.13	3.46	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	121	527	145	59	18	89%	4.5	23.3%	10.4%	12.9%	4.7%	4.54	5.03	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	121	527	145	59	18	89%	4.5	23.3%	10.4%	12.9%	4.7%	4.54	5.03	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	24	121	527	145	59	18	89%	4.5	27.5%	11.2%	16.3%	3.4%	4.54	4.10	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	23	104	444	104	55	10	92%	4.2	18.9%	11.4%	7.5%	3.3%	4.41	4.79	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	23	104	444	104	55	10	92%	4.2	18.9%	11.4%	7.5%	3.3%	4.41	4.79	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	23	104	444	104	55	10	92%	4.2	23.4%	12.4%	11.0%	2.3%	4.41	3.94	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	17	100	445	94	48	13	65%	3.8	17.4%	11.0%	6.5%	3.3%	5.04	4.85	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	17	100	445	94	48	13	65%	3.8	17.4%	11.0%	6.5%	3.3%	5.04	4.85	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	17	100	445	94	48	13	65%	3.8	21.1%	10.8%	10.3%	2.9%	5.04	4.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	DET	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	17.8%	12.3%	5.5%	3.4%	5.37	5.37	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	54	228	41	28	8	100%	6.0	18.0%	12.3%	5.8%	3.5%	5.37	5.44	-0.0
2029	31	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	45	190	34	24	7	100%	5.6	18.0%	12.4%	5.6%	3.7%	5.45	5.56	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	DET	3	3	17	72	13	9	3	100%	5.7	18.0%	12.3%	5.8%	3.5%	5.37	5.44	-0.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	DET	4	4	23	97	17	12	4	100%	5.8	18.0%	12.4%	5.6%	3.7%	5.45	5.56	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	7	40	169	30	21	6	100%	5.7	18.0%	12.3%	5.7%	3.6%	5.42	5.13	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	150	105	30	100%	6.0	18.0%	12.3%	5.7%	3.6%	5.42	5.13	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		142	93	544	2357	484	262	75	65%	3.8	20.6%	11.1%	9.4%	3.2%	4.35	4.53	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	34	200	867	178	96	28	65%	3.8	20.6%	11.1%	9.4%	3.2%	4.35	4.53	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAArkansas Travelers · 60 IPFIP 3.64 → 4.42 (+0.77)K% 24.2% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.24%	—	×0.810	19.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.61%	—	×1.100	11.67%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.73%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.64 → 4.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 40 IPFIP 5.22 → 5.49 (+0.27)K% 16.6% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.57%	—	×0.860	14.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.05%	—	×0.900	9.94%
HR / BF /BF	3.87%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.25%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.22 → 5.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 86 IPFIP 4.31 → 4.79 (+0.48)K% 22.0% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.96%	—	×0.860	18.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.70%	—	×0.900	11.43%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷0.872	×1.100	3.34%

Result: FIP 4.31 → 4.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 13 IPFIP 1.96 → 2.72 (+0.76)K% 29.2% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.17%	—	×0.770	22.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.42%	—	×1.150	11.98%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.850	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 1.96 → 2.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 93 IPFIP 4.52 → 5.51 (+0.98)K% 26.3% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.27%	—	×0.860	22.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.05%	—	×0.900	10.84%
HR / BF /BF	3.86%	÷0.792	×1.100	5.35%

Result: FIP 4.52 → 5.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAErie SeaWolves · 28 IPFIP 2.38 → 3.27 (+0.89)K% 32.1% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.14%	—	×0.810	26.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.04%	—	×1.100	8.84%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷0.941	×1.200	2.28%

Result: FIP 2.38 → 3.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAErie SeaWolves · 89 IPFIP 3.52 → 4.29 (+0.77)K% 27.9% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.94%	—	×0.810	22.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.75%	—	×1.100	12.92%
HR / BF /BF	2.35%	÷1.055	×1.200	2.67%

Result: FIP 3.52 → 4.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 5 IPFIP 2.40 → 2.54 (+0.14)K% 20.8% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.83%	—	×0.860	17.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×0.900	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.901	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.40 → 2.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lael Lockhart (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.37	17.8%	12.3%	3.4%	—	5.49	18.0%	5.7%	99	+0.12	—	—	—
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	75
Carlos Teller L 2016 · 4.86 FIP	29	SP-	4.86	14.3%	10.7%	2.9%	.297	4.74	12.6%	1.1%	148	-0.12	3.75	333	73
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	72
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	71
Brad Mills L 2014 · 5.61 FIP	29	SP-	5.61	18.8%	10.9%	5.0%	.364	5.00	14.5%	4.0%	182	-0.61	4.22	243	70
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	70
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	69
Marco Tovar L 2017 · 5.04 FIP	28	SP-	5.04	16.1%	11.3%	3.4%	.317	4.78	12.6%	7.0%	82	-0.26	3.78	327	68
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	67
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	67
Amilcar Gaxiola L 2019 · 4.61 FIP	28	SP-	4.61	11.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	321	67
Chris Michalak L 2001 · 4.92 FIP	30	SP-	4.92	11.0%	8.2%	3.1%	.291	4.71	7.0%	-4.3%	14	-0.21	4.71	186	67
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	66
Tommy Shirley L 2016 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	147	66
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	66
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	63
Scott Downs L 2005 · 4.22 FIP	29	SP-	4.22	18.4%	8.4%	2.9%	.283	3.29	20.5%	12.9%	206	-0.93	2.68	748	63
Kyle Hart L 2022 · 5.24 FIP	29	SW	5.24	17.4%	9.9%	4.3%	.286	4.29	18.4%	9.5%	196	-0.95	3.60	886	62
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	62
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2024 · 5.19 FIP	27	SP-	5.19	12.4%	7.9%	3.9%	.290	3.85	16.3%	7.3%	118	-1.34	2.95	313	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	17.9%	12.3%	1.36	5.39
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*