Lael Lockhart
P
Erie SeaWolves
Age 28
LHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 69 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129138vR 147
ERA5.73
FIP5.73
K%20.5%
BB%14.0%
K-BB%6.5%
ROS IP69
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 134 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 14 | 57 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 33.4% | 15.2% | 18.2% | 2.7% | 3.95 | 3.71 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 14 | 57 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 43.9% | 12.3% | 31.6% | 1.8% | 3.95 | 1.93 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 16 | 112 | 477 | 114 | 41 | 7 | 59% | 4.1 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 1.8% | 3.71 | 3.73 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 16 | 112 | 477 | 114 | 41 | 7 | 59% | 4.1 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 15.3% | 1.5% | 3.71 | 2.97 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 13 | 94 | 407 | 112 | 47 | 9 | 48% | 3.5 | 22.6% | 12.9% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 4.13 | 4.22 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 13 | 94 | 407 | 112 | 47 | 9 | 48% | 3.5 | 27.5% | 11.5% | 16.0% | 2.2% | 4.13 | 3.46 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 24 | 121 | 527 | 145 | 59 | 18 | 89% | 4.5 | 23.7% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 6.2% | 4.54 | 6.02 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 24 | 121 | 527 | 145 | 59 | 18 | 89% | 4.5 | 27.5% | 11.2% | 16.3% | 3.4% | 4.54 | 4.10 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 23 | 104 | 444 | 104 | 55 | 10 | 92% | 4.2 | 19.3% | 13.3% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 4.41 | 5.31 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 23 | 104 | 444 | 104 | 55 | 10 | 92% | 4.2 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 2.3% | 4.41 | 3.94 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 16 | 11 | 64 | 279 | 58 | 33 | 6 | 69% | 4.0 | 17.3% | 12.7% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 4.20 | 4.63 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 69 | 293 | 60 | 41 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.5% | 14.0% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 5.73 | 5.73 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | DET | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 14.0% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 5.73 | 5.73 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | DET | — | — | 134 | 572 | 118 | 74 | 18 | — | — | 20.7% | 12.9% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 4.99 | 5.20 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | DET | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 20.5% | 14.0% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 5.73 | 5.35 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 66 | 280 | 57 | 38 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.6% | 13.7% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 5.67 | 5.72 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | DET | 10 | 10 | 62 | 263 | 54 | 36 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.4% | 13.7% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 5.70 | 5.79 | -0.9 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | DET | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 49 | 34 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.2% | 13.8% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.80 | 5.92 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 4 | 4 | 21 | 89 | 18 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.2 | 20.6% | 13.7% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 5.67 | 5.72 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | DET | 5 | 5 | 32 | 135 | 28 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.4% | 13.7% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 5.70 | 5.79 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | DET | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 32 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.2% | 13.8% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.80 | 5.92 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 15 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 79 | 53 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.4% | 13.8% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 5.73 | 5.45 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 172 | 115 | 35 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 13.8% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 5.73 | 5.45 | -0.1 | ||
| Career | — | 132 | 87 | 508 | 2191 | 459 | 265 | 78 | 66% | 3.9 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 4.20 | 4.80 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 34 | 200 | 862 | 181 | 104 | 31 | 66% | 3.9 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 4.20 | 4.80 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lael Lockhart (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.73 | 20.5% | 14.0% | 4.0% | — | 5.81 | 20.4% | 6.6% | 186 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 77 |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.88 | 16.1% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .325 | 3.24 | 13.9% | 3.5% | 49 | -1.64 | 3.24 | 298 | 76 |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.19 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 4.6% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 311 | 73 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2024 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.52 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 116 | 70 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.20 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 118 | 69 |
| Mike Minor L 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.50 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .330 | 3.78 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.72 | 2.42 | 807 | 69 |
| Marco Tovar L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.97 | 16.1% | 11.3% | 3.3% | .317 | 4.79 | 12.6% | 7.0% | 82 | -0.18 | 3.79 | 327 | 67 |
| Nico Tellache L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.65 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 160 | 67 |
| Tommy Vail L 2024 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 151 | 66 |
| Chris Reed L 2024 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 137 | 65 |
| Nate Fisher L 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.34 | 15.5% | 10.7% | 4.0% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.42 | 229 | 65 |
| Manny Banuelos L 2026 · 5.84 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.84 | 18.7% | 12.8% | 4.9% | .322 | 2.92 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 72 | -2.92 | 2.92 | 486 | 63 |
| Jonathan Bermúdez L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.82 | 19.3% | 12.7% | 3.2% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 469 | 63 |
| Nick Allgeyer L 2025 · 6.21 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.21 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 5.4% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 390 | 63 |
| Matt Lujan L 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.13 | 14.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 227 | 62 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2027 · 5.16 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.16 | 10.6% | 8.2% | 3.5% | .345 | 5.04 | 10.0% | 2.8% | 83 | -0.12 | 5.04 | 175 | 62 |
| Rio Gomez L 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.34 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 4.4% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.54 | 246 | 62 |
| Braeden Fausnaught L 2024 · 4.91 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.91 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 242 | 61 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.86 | 13.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .366 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.30 | 147 | 61 |
| Michael Roth L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.86 | 12.1% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 483 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 64 | 20.4% | 13.8% | 1.61 | 5.72 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |