Lael Lockhart
P
Toledo Mud Hens
+0.0
WAR
Age 28
LHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA5.08
FIP5.08
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.6%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%9.6%
IP96
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4040
CMD4040
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 10 | 0 | 14 | 57 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 33.4% | 15.2% | 2.6% | 3.95 | 3.60 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 27 | 16 | 112 | 477 | 114 | 41 | 7 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 1.8% | 3.71 | 3.74 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 27 | 13 | 94 | 407 | 112 | 47 | 9 | 22.6% | 12.9% | 2.7% | 4.13 | 4.31 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 27 | 24 | 121 | 527 | 145 | 59 | 18 | 23.7% | 11.8% | 4.8% | 4.54 | 5.22 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 25 | 23 | 104 | 444 | 104 | 55 | 10 | 19.3% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 4.41 | 4.93 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 3 | 3 | 14 | 55 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 17.6% | 11.5% | 4.0% | 5.27 | 5.26 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 85 | 54 | 14 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 3.5% | 5.30 | 5.30 | -0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | DET | — | — | 109 | 459 | 96 | 60 | 16 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 3.5% | 5.30 | 5.30 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 94 | 395 | 83 | 51 | 14 | 21.0% | 12.8% | 3.5% | 5.22 | 5.24 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 91 | 383 | 80 | 48 | 13 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 3.5% | 5.19 | 5.23 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 88 | 370 | 77 | 46 | 13 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 3.5% | 5.21 | 5.25 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 84 | 355 | 73 | 44 | 13 | 20.5% | 12.4% | 3.6% | 5.26 | 5.31 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 80 | 339 | 68 | 43 | 13 | 20.2% | 12.6% | 3.7% | 5.35 | 5.41 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 76 | 322 | 70 | 39 | 12 | 21.8% | 12.0% | 3.8% | 5.29 | 5.25 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 72 | 304 | 65 | 37 | 12 | 21.4% | 12.3% | 3.9% | 5.34 | 5.37 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 60 | 35 | 11 | 21.0% | 12.5% | 4.0% | 5.44 | 5.51 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 119 | 79 | 458 | 1967 | 421 | 235 | 63 | 21.4% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.23 | 4.56 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 35 | 200 | 860 | 184 | 103 | 28 | 21.4% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.23 | 4.56 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lael Lockhart (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.30 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 3.5% | — | 5.24 | 20.9% | 8.3% | 272 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 3.4% | .341 | 4.37 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 57 | -0.07 | 3.37 | 393 | 80 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.44 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.3% | .289 | 5.28 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | -0.16 | 5.28 | 128 | 80 |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.82 | 16.1% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .325 | 3.24 | 13.9% | 3.5% | 49 | -1.58 | 3.24 | 298 | 79 |
| Tommy Vail L 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.86 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 2.4% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 151 | 77 |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.80 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 3.9% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 311 | 76 |
| Orlando Lara L 2028 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.15 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .348 | 4.07 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | -0.08 | 3.83 | 426 | 75 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.14 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.3% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 300 | 72 |
| Everett Teaford L 2029 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.43 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 103 | 71 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2028 · 4.11 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.11 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .318 | 4.39 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.28 | 3.52 | 282 | 71 |
| Austin Warner L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.85 | 16.9% | 9.0% | 3.7% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 491 | 71 |
| John Anderson L 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.19 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 235 | 71 |
| Blair Walters L 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.67 | 14.6% | 14.2% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 262 | 71 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.25 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 116 | 71 |
| Chris Reed L 2024 · 4.70 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.70 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 137 | 70 |
| Jonathan Bermúdez L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.85 | 19.3% | 12.7% | 3.2% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 469 | 70 |
| Reid VanScoter L 2024 · 5.39 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.39 | 14.7% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.93 | 331 | 70 |
| Erik Tolman L 2024 · 4.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.69 | 18.7% | 15.4% | 2.2% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 116 | 68 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.36 | 11.5% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .283 | 3.88 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 220 | -0.48 | 3.73 | 311 | 68 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.38 | 12.8% | 7.0% | 2.7% | .367 | 4.09 | 14.6% | 9.1% | 128 | -0.29 | 3.98 | 280 | 68 |
| Nick Allgeyer L 2025 · 5.78 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.78 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 4.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 390 | 67 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.