Lael Lockhart — OGILVIE

Lael Lockhart P Arkansas Travelers

Age 28 LHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION100 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 134

ERA5.32

FIP5.32

K%19.5%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%7.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 106 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	14	57	25	7	1	0%	1.4	33.4%	15.2%	18.2%	2.5%	3.95	3.59	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	14	57	25	7	1	0%	1.4	43.9%	12.3%	31.6%	1.8%	3.95	1.93	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	16	112	477	114	41	7	59%	4.1	18.6%	9.7%	9.0%	1.8%	3.71	3.74	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	16	112	477	114	41	7	59%	4.1	23.9%	8.6%	15.3%	1.5%	3.71	2.97	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	13	94	407	112	47	9	48%	3.5	22.6%	12.9%	9.7%	2.7%	4.13	4.29	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	13	94	407	112	47	9	48%	3.5	22.6%	12.9%	9.7%	2.7%	4.13	4.29	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	13	94	407	112	47	9	48%	3.5	27.5%	11.5%	16.0%	2.2%	4.13	3.46	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	121	527	145	59	18	89%	4.5	22.7%	10.4%	12.3%	4.7%	4.54	5.08	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	121	527	145	59	18	89%	4.5	22.7%	10.4%	12.3%	4.7%	4.54	5.08	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	24	121	527	145	59	18	89%	4.5	27.5%	11.2%	16.3%	3.4%	4.54	4.10	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	23	104	444	104	55	10	92%	4.2	18.2%	11.4%	6.8%	3.3%	4.41	4.84	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	23	104	444	104	55	10	92%	4.2	18.2%	11.4%	6.8%	3.3%	4.41	4.84	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	23	104	444	104	55	10	92%	4.2	23.4%	12.4%	11.0%	2.3%	4.41	3.94	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	26	17	100	445	94	48	13	65%	3.8	17.2%	11.0%	6.3%	3.3%	5.04	4.87	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	26	17	100	445	94	48	13	65%	3.8	17.2%	11.0%	6.3%	3.3%	5.04	4.87	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	DET	16	8	60	264	64	28	6	50%	3.8	24.2%	10.6%	13.6%	2.3%	3.88	3.64	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	DET	10	9	40	181	30	20	7	90%	4.0	16.6%	11.0%	5.5%	3.9%	6.81	5.22	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	DET	1	1	6	27	5	3	1	100%	6.3	19.5%	12.4%	7.1%	3.5%	5.32	5.32	-0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	106	472	99	51	14	—	—	21.0%	10.9%	10.2%	3.0%	5.06	4.90	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	66	280	55	34	10	100%	6.0	19.7%	12.3%	7.3%	3.6%	5.30	5.35	-0.3
2028	30	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	62	263	51	33	10	100%	6.2	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	3.8%	5.36	5.45	-0.4
2027	29	MLB CTX	DET	4	4	21	89	17	11	3	100%	5.2	19.7%	12.3%	7.3%	3.6%	5.30	5.35	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	DET	5	5	32	135	26	17	5	100%	6.4	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	3.8%	5.36	5.45	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	9	53	223	44	28	8	100%	5.9	19.6%	12.4%	7.3%	3.7%	5.34	5.04	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	167	106	30	100%	6.0	19.6%	12.4%	7.3%	3.7%	5.34	5.04	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		142	93	544	2357	477	262	75	65%	3.8	20.3%	11.1%	9.1%	3.2%	4.35	4.55	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	34	200	867	176	96	28	65%	3.8	20.3%	11.1%	9.1%	3.2%	4.35	4.55	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lael Lockhart (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.32	19.5%	12.4%	3.5%	—	5.40	19.6%	7.3%	128	+0.08	—	—	—
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	80
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	78
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	76
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	74
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	73
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	72
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	71
Marco Tovar L 2017 · 5.04 FIP	28	SP-	5.04	16.1%	11.3%	3.4%	.317	4.78	12.6%	7.0%	82	-0.26	3.78	327	69
Mike Minor L 2016 · 5.63 FIP	28	SP	5.63	19.2%	11.8%	4.8%	.330	3.76	23.2%	16.4%	443	-1.87	2.43	807	68
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	68
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	68
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	67
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	67
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	67
Amilcar Gaxiola L 2019 · 4.61 FIP	28	SP-	4.61	11.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	321	66
Daniel Camarena L 2021 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	14.9%	8.3%	2.9%	.273	5.75	13.5%	5.7%	121	+1.28	3.76	674	66
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	66
Tommy Shirley L 2016 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	147	65
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	65
Michael Roth L 2018 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	12.1%	8.5%	3.0%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	483	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	19.6%	12.4%	1.40	5.33
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43