Christian MacLeod

P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 27 LHP 6'4" / 227 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX3 levels	21	20	92	3.41	3.83	27.2%	11.7%	—	K 21.5% · BB 13.6% · FIP 4.77
2025	25	MIX3 levels	27	17	87	4.34	3.61	24.0%	12.0%	—	K 19.0% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.88
2026	26	MIX2 levels	29	5	45	5.44	5.36	19.4%	20.9%	—	K 16.0% · BB 20.9% · FIP 5.65
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIA	1	1	1	5.51	5.51	17.2%	16.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBMIA	3	3	17	5.44	5.48	17.7%	15.5%	-0.0
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBMIA	4	4	21	5.45	5.52	17.9%	15.2%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control50Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsMark Manfredi Sr. (age 24) · Matt Whitehouse (age 27) · Dan Meyer (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122130vR 138

ERA5.51

FIP5.51

K%17.2%

BB%16.0%

K-BB%1.2%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	1	0	2	8	5	2	0	0%	1.7	62.5%	25.0%	37.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	1	0	2	8	5	2	0	0%	1.7	62.5%	25.0%	37.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.70	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	71	310	69	32	7	94%	4.2	16.4%	10.5%	6.0%	2.7%	4.08	4.52	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	16	71	310	69	32	7	94%	4.2	22.3%	10.3%	11.9%	2.3%	4.08	3.79	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	20	92	394	107	46	11	95%	4.4	21.5%	13.6%	7.9%	3.2%	3.41	4.77	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	20	92	394	107	46	11	95%	4.4	21.5%	13.6%	7.9%	3.2%	3.41	4.77	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	20	92	394	107	46	11	95%	4.4	27.2%	11.7%	15.5%	2.8%	3.41	3.83	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	17	87	391	94	47	7	63%	3.2	19.0%	11.8%	7.3%	1.6%	4.34	3.88	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	17	87	391	94	47	7	63%	3.2	19.0%	11.8%	7.3%	1.6%	4.34	3.88	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	17	87	391	94	47	7	63%	3.2	24.0%	12.0%	12.0%	1.8%	4.34	3.61	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	5	45	206	40	43	4	17%	1.5	16.0%	20.9%	-4.9%	2.3%	5.44	5.65	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	5	45	206	40	43	4	17%	1.5	16.0%	20.9%	-4.9%	2.3%	5.44	5.65	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	5	45	206	40	43	4	17%	1.5	19.4%	20.9%	-1.5%	1.9%	5.44	5.36	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIA	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	17.2%	16.0%	1.2%	2.7%	5.51	5.51	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIA	7	7	45	188	33	29	5	100%	6.4	17.7%	15.5%	2.2%	2.8%	5.44	5.48	-0.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIA	6	6	38	159	28	24	5	100%	6.3	17.9%	15.2%	2.7%	3.0%	5.45	5.52	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIA	3	3	17	72	13	11	2	100%	5.7	17.7%	15.5%	2.2%	2.8%	5.44	5.48	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIA	4	4	21	89	16	14	3	100%	5.2	17.9%	15.2%	2.7%	3.0%	5.45	5.52	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	6	38	159	28	24	5	100%	6.3	17.8%	15.3%	2.5%	2.9%	5.45	5.12	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	149	127	27	100%	6.0	17.8%	15.3%	2.5%	2.9%	5.45	5.12	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		95	58	296	1309	248	177	32	61%	3.1	19.0%	13.5%	5.4%	2.5%	4.13	4.56	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	39	200	883	167	120	22	61%	3.1	19.0%	13.5%	5.4%	2.5%	4.13	4.56	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 27 IPFIP 4.84 → 5.73 (+0.89)K% 23.5% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.53%	—	×0.810	19.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.49%	—	×1.100	20.34%
HR / BF /BF	2.52%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.03%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.84 → 5.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 18 IPFIP 5.62 → 5.54 (−0.08)K% 13.8% → 11.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.79%	—	×0.860	11.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	24.14%	—	×0.900	21.72%
HR / BF /BF	1.15%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.26%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.62 → 5.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 48 IPFIP 2.41 → 2.89 (+0.47)K% 22.2% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.17%	—	×0.810	17.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.36%	—	×1.100	10.30%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.986	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.41 → 2.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 35 IPFIP 5.21 → 5.03 (−0.18)K% 23.6% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.56%	—	×0.860	20.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.94%	—	×0.900	13.45%
HR / BF /BF	4.02%	÷1.253	×1.100	3.53%

Result: FIP 5.21 → 5.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 49 IPFIP 3.84 → 4.68 (+0.84)K% 27.5% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.49%	—	×0.770	21.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.85%	—	×1.150	13.63%
HR / BF /BF	2.84%	÷1.191	×1.250	2.98%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 138).

Result: FIP 3.84 → 4.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAWichita Wind Surge · 39 IPFIP 3.73 → 4.89 (+1.16)K% 27.2% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.16%	—	×0.810	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.35%	—	×1.100	13.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.47%	÷0.845	×1.200	3.51%

Result: FIP 3.73 → 4.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 5 IPFIP 4.31 → 4.68 (+0.38)K% 23.8% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.81%	—	×0.860	20.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×0.900	4.29%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.039	×1.100	5.04%

Result: FIP 4.31 → 4.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 65 IPFIP 3.79 → 4.52 (+0.72)K% 21.3% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.33%	—	×0.770	16.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.150	10.45%
HR / BF /BF	2.45%	÷1.134	×1.250	2.70%

Result: FIP 3.79 → 4.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian MacLeod (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.51	17.2%	16.0%	2.7%	—	5.50	17.8%	2.4%	82	-0.01	—	—	—
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	78
Matt Whitehouse L 2018 · 4.55 FIP	27	SW	4.55	17.0%	12.8%	2.3%	.308	4.07	20.1%	9.2%	81	-0.48	3.37	353	73
Dan Meyer L 2008 · 5.66 FIP	27	SW	5.66	15.2%	10.6%	4.5%	.315	3.73	23.1%	15.2%	58	-1.93	3.73	112	70
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	70
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	69
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	68
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.34	16.7%	9.5%	356	-0.53	3.68	579	68
Adam Scott L 2023 · 4.65 FIP	27	SW	4.65	16.1%	17.3%	1.3%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	315	68
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	68
Phil Dumatrait L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	27	SP-	4.39	14.8%	11.4%	2.0%	.298	5.73	13.9%	2.0%	54	+1.34	4.39	151	68
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	67
Luis Ysla L 2019 · 5.78 FIP	27	SP-	5.78	18.0%	14.4%	4.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	378	67
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	67
Cody Dickson L 2017 · 5.48 FIP	25	SW	5.48	15.9%	14.6%	3.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	354	66
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	66
Matthew Spann L 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SW	5.15	15.1%	16.9%	2.2%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	173	64
Mitch Stallings L 2021 · 5.48 FIP	26	SW	5.48	16.8%	11.5%	4.3%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.18	108	64
Cam Vieaux L 2021 · 5.10 FIP	27	SP-	5.10	18.0%	11.8%	3.7%	.288	4.45	20.0%	10.8%	122	-0.65	4.20	620	64
Aaron Leasher L 2023 · 4.98 FIP	27	SW	4.98	15.1%	17.1%	1.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	477	64
Kevin Smith L 2022 · 6.20 FIP	25	SW	6.20	17.5%	16.2%	4.6%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	248	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	17.6%	15.6%	1.08	5.47
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*