Christian MacLeod
P
St. Paul Saints
+0.4
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'4" / 227 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.6 · 2028
ERA4.66
FIP4.66
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.1%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%9.1%
IP82
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2028
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Twins | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 17 | 16 | 71 | 310 | 69 | 32 | 7 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 4.08 | 4.51 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 21 | 20 | 92 | 394 | 107 | 46 | 11 | 21.5% | 13.6% | 3.3% | 3.41 | 4.83 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 27 | 17 | 87 | 391 | 94 | 47 | 7 | 19.2% | 12.8% | 1.4% | 4.34 | 3.87 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 81.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 82 | 348 | 73 | 42 | 9 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 2.6% | 4.66 | 4.66 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 83 | 356 | 75 | 45 | 10 | 21.1% | 12.5% | 2.8% | 5.27 | 4.62 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 16 | 16 | 86 | 363 | 77 | 42 | 10 | 21.2% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.62 | 4.62 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 77 | 41 | 10 | 21.2% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 4.61 | 4.62 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 75 | 40 | 10 | 21.1% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.65 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 82 | 347 | 73 | 39 | 10 | 20.9% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.67 | 4.70 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 14 | 14 | 79 | 335 | 76 | 35 | 10 | 22.7% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.50 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 14 | 14 | 76 | 321 | 72 | 34 | 10 | 22.4% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.59 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 73 | 307 | 68 | 33 | 9 | 22.1% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.69 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 63 | 32 | 9 | 21.8% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.80 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 59 | 31 | 9 | 21.4% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 4.92 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 54 | 30 | 9 | 20.9% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 5.05 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 67 | 54 | 252 | 1111 | 218 | 141 | 28 | 19.6% | 12.7% | 2.5% | 4.10 | 4.43 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 43 | 200 | 881 | 173 | 112 | 22 | 19.6% | 12.7% | 2.5% | 4.10 | 4.43 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Christian MacLeod (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 2.6% | — | 4.63 | 21.2% | 9.8% | 257 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Sam Garcia L 2023 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 83 |
| Justin Marks L 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 82 |
| Matt Lujan L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.09 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .326 | 4.80 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 119 | +0.71 | 4.09 | 227 | 82 |
| Miguel Pena L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.03 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .288 | 5.12 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.09 | 2.93 | 282 | 81 |
| Tommy Vail L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.86 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 2.4% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 151 | 81 |
| Misael Siverio L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 81 |
| Jack Choate L 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.27 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 282 | 80 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2023 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 80 |
| Chipper Smith L 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 80 |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.94 | 14.4% | 9.8% | 1.5% | .306 | 4.11 | 14.7% | 5.5% | 208 | +0.17 | 3.24 | 298 | 80 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2024 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 79 |
| Houston Harding L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.61 | 16.5% | 11.7% | 2.6% | .268 | 3.41 | 18.5% | 10.1% | 18 | -1.20 | 3.41 | 195 | 79 |
| Nick Sando L 2024 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 20.6% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 154 | 79 |
| Adam Wolf L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.2% | 11.5% | 1.5% | .257 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 6.5% | 24 | +1.09 | 3.91 | 383 | 79 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.85 | 24.0% | 13.7% | 1.9% | .240 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 191 | 78 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 78 |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.09 | 20.8% | 7.7% | 3.2% | .310 | 3.54 | 23.9% | 16.0% | 205 | -0.55 | 3.17 | 372 | 78 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.78 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 381 | 78 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2024 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 77 |
| Marco Tovar L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.78 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.69 | 13.0% | 6.1% | 120 | +0.91 | 3.78 | 327 | 77 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| Totals | $6M | $13M | +$7M | ||