Christian MacLeod

Christian MacLeod P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 26 LHP 6'4" / 227 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 127

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%18.9%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%6.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	1	0	2	8	5	2	0	0%	1.7	62.5%	25.0%	37.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	1	0	2	8	5	2	0	0%	1.7	62.5%	25.0%	37.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.70	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	71	310	69	32	7	94%	4.2	16.4%	10.5%	6.0%	2.7%	4.08	4.52	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	71	310	69	32	7	94%	4.2	16.4%	10.5%	6.0%	2.7%	4.08	4.52	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	16	71	310	69	32	7	94%	4.2	22.3%	10.3%	11.9%	2.3%	4.08	3.79	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	20	92	394	107	46	11	95%	4.4	21.5%	13.6%	7.9%	3.2%	3.41	4.77	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	20	92	394	107	46	11	95%	4.4	21.5%	13.6%	7.9%	3.2%	3.41	4.77	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	20	92	394	107	46	11	95%	4.4	27.2%	11.7%	15.5%	2.8%	3.41	3.83	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	17	87	391	94	47	7	63%	3.2	18.7%	11.8%	6.9%	1.6%	4.34	3.90	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	17	87	391	94	47	7	63%	3.2	18.7%	11.8%	6.9%	1.6%	4.34	3.90	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	17	87	391	94	47	7	63%	3.2	24.0%	12.0%	12.0%	1.8%	4.34	3.61	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	28	5	42	194	40	40	4	18%	1.5	16.8%	20.8%	-4.0%	2.4%	5.62	5.65	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	28	5	42	194	40	40	4	18%	1.5	16.8%	20.8%	-4.0%	2.4%	5.62	5.65	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	MIA	17	1	27	119	28	22	3	6%	1.6	23.5%	18.5%	5.0%	2.5%	4.72	4.84	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	MIA	11	4	15	75	12	18	1	36%	1.4	16.0%	24.0%	-8.0%	1.3%	7.20	5.52	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	MIA	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	18.9%	12.4%	6.5%	2.7%	4.94	4.94	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	48	219	45	43	5	—	—	20.4%	19.7%	0.7%	2.1%	5.53	5.56	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIA	14	14	82	346	66	42	10	100%	5.9	19.2%	12.0%	7.2%	2.8%	4.89	4.91	-0.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	79	335	71	37	10	100%	6.1	21.3%	11.1%	10.2%	2.9%	4.74	4.67	+0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	76	320	68	36	10	100%	5.8	21.2%	11.2%	10.0%	3.0%	4.76	4.79	+0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	71	301	63	34	10	100%	5.9	20.9%	11.5%	9.4%	3.2%	4.87	4.95	-0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIA	5	5	31	131	25	16	3	100%	6.2	19.2%	12.0%	7.2%	2.6%	4.81	4.83	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	47	198	42	22	5	100%	5.9	21.3%	11.1%	10.2%	2.7%	4.66	4.59	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	54	228	48	26	7	100%	6.0	21.2%	11.2%	10.0%	2.9%	4.68	4.71	+0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	56	236	49	27	7	100%	6.2	20.9%	11.5%	9.4%	3.1%	4.78	4.86	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	31	188	792	165	90	23	100%	6.1	20.8%	11.4%	9.4%	2.9%	4.73	4.36	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	176	96	25	100%	6.0	20.8%	11.4%	9.4%	2.9%	4.73	4.36	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		94	58	293	1297	246	174	32	62%	3.1	19.0%	13.4%	5.6%	2.5%	4.14	4.56	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	40	200	884	168	119	22	62%	3.1	19.0%	13.4%	5.6%	2.5%	4.14	4.56	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian MacLeod (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	18.9%	12.4%	2.7%	—	4.79	20.5%	9.1%	237	-0.15	—	—	—
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	82
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	80
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	80
Matt Tracy L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SW	3.96	14.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.306	4.10	14.7%	5.5%	208	+0.14	3.24	298	80
Garrett Schoenle L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	25	SP-	5.38	20.5%	15.0%	3.9%	.307	3.59	20.9%	12.2%	172	-1.79	2.32	359	77
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	77
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	76
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	76
Adam Scott L 2022 · 5.27 FIP	26	SW	5.27	21.1%	13.5%	4.1%	.317	4.70	15.6%	-1.7%	46	-0.57	4.17	315	75
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	75
Larson Kindreich L 2023 · 5.29 FIP	24	SW	5.29	21.5%	18.8%	3.0%	.269	4.68	23.0%	9.0%	79	-0.61	4.16	214	74
Drake Britton L 2015 · 4.69 FIP	26	SW	4.69	11.1%	9.7%	2.4%	.268	4.79	8.0%	-2.2%	41	+0.10	4.69	125	74
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	74
Lael Lockhart L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	25	SW	4.29	22.6%	12.9%	2.7%	.302	4.94	19.6%	8.8%	307	+0.65	3.59	520	74
Carlos Teller L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP-	3.75	13.8%	10.9%	0.8%	.329	4.75	13.3%	3.1%	187	+1.00	3.75	333	73
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	72
Luis Ysla L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	26	SW	4.96	18.9%	13.9%	3.1%	.325	5.78	18.0%	3.6%	86	+0.82	3.75	378	72
Seth Lonsway L 2023 · 5.20 FIP	24	SP-	5.20	13.8%	15.3%	2.4%	.317	4.17	15.2%	4.4%	313	-1.03	3.35	498	72
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	71
Zack Thompson L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	25	SP-	4.50	22.8%	12.9%	3.1%	.355	4.69	23.0%	10.8%	107	+0.19	2.03	402	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	76	20.3%	11.6%	1.13	4.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77