Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 141 | 590 | 81 | 36 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 10.4% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 3.82 | 4.22 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 141 | 590 | 81 | 36 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 13.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 1.5% | 3.82 | 3.55 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 144 | 592 | 124 | 35 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.6% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 4.5% | 3.68 | 5.02 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 144 | 592 | 124 | 35 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.9% | 5.9% | 15.0% | 3.2% | 3.68 | 3.82 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 139 | 582 | 120 | 57 | 21 | 100% | 5.3 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.50 | 5.88 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 139 | 582 | 120 | 57 | 21 | 100% | 5.3 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 3.50 | 4.57 | — |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 13 | 73 | 335 | 72 | 37 | 11 | 52% | 2.9 | 18.0% | 11.8% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 5.28 | 5.09 | — |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 13 | 73 | 335 | 72 | 37 | 11 | 52% | 2.9 | 21.5% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 5.28 | 4.60 | — |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 1 | 59 | 246 | 62 | 20 | 9 | 2% | 1.4 | 20.9% | 8.0% | 12.9% | 3.8% | 4.14 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 1 | 59 | 246 | 62 | 20 | 9 | 2% | 1.4 | 25.2% | 8.1% | 17.1% | 3.7% | 4.14 | 4.00 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 50 | 1 | 72 | 314 | 71 | 35 | 9 | 2% | 1.4 | 19.9% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 5.23 | 4.62 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 50 | 1 | 72 | 314 | 71 | 35 | 9 | 2% | 1.4 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 5.23 | 4.21 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 44 | 0 | 46 | 195 | 44 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 40 | 0 | 42 | 179 | 40 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 37 | 0 | 39 | 163 | 36 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 33 | 0 | 35 | 147 | 31 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 3.9% | 5.02 | 5.21 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 4.93 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 3.9% | 5.02 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 44 | 0 | 46 | 207 | 50 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 10.5% | 13.6% | 3.7% | 5.81 | 4.41 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 894 | 215 | 95 | 34 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 10.5% | 13.6% | 3.7% | 5.81 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 193 | 90 | 629 | 2659 | 435 | 238 | 101 | 47% | 3.3 | 16.4% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 4.08 | 4.94 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 29 | 200 | 845 | 138 | 76 | 32 | 47% | 3.3 | 16.4% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 4.08 | 4.94 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cam Vieaux (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.92 | 21.8% | 11.3% | 116 | +0.47 | — | — | — |
| Luke Westphal L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.48 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .321 | 4.52 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 73 |
| David Huff L 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.00 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 158 | 69 |
| Matt Moore L 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.49 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 4.9% | .288 | 3.82 | 25.2% | 15.4% | 175 | -1.67 | 2.82 | 845 | 69 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2024 · 3.41 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.41 | 22.7% | 5.4% | 2.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 153 | 68 |
| Travis Blackley L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 67 |
| Wei-Yin Chen L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.68 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .232 | 4.49 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 202 | +0.81 | 3.68 | 549 | 65 |
| Jaime García L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.76 | 19.8% | 11.4% | 3.4% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 540 | 64 |
| Chris Narveson L 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.83 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.57 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.26 | 4.40 | 249 | 64 |
| Santiago Gutierrez L 2025 · 3.87 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.87 | 15.0% | 8.2% | 1.8% | .366 | 6.95 | 17.1% | 3.7% | 46 | +3.08 | 3.87 | 341 | 63 |
| Chris Rusin L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.01 | 12.4% | 6.7% | 2.0% | .329 | 7.12 | 12.7% | 3.5% | 32 | +3.11 | 2.80 | 488 | 62 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.52 | 14.1% | 4.6% | 1.9% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 152 | 58 |
| Everett Teaford L 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 58 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.51 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 4.0% | .360 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 241 | 58 |
| Matt Dermody L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.23 | 17.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .302 | 3.91 | 21.2% | 15.9% | 49 | -0.32 | 2.34 | 348 | 58 |
| Cesár Ramos L 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.30 | 15.0% | 7.8% | 4.5% | .324 | 4.17 | 16.7% | 8.4% | 92 | -1.13 | 2.83 | 225 | 58 |
| Jose Quintana L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.54 | 28.6% | 11.4% | 4.4% | .373 | 3.57 | 19.4% | 11.6% | 412 | -0.97 | 2.90 | 1,596 | 58 |
| Josh Outman L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.26 | 12.7% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .322 | 6.40 | 12.9% | -5.6% | 34 | +1.14 | 4.70 | 106 | 57 |
| Andy Otero L 2024 · 4.38 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.38 | 14.5% | 8.9% | 2.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 200 | 56 |
| Franklin Morales L 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 101 | 55 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.48 | 13.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | .323 | 3.97 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 61 | -0.51 | 3.97 | 280 | 54 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 41 | 22.1% | 10.3% | 1.32 | 4.68 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |