Sean Nolin — OGILVIE

Sean Nolin P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 36 LHP 6'4" / 250 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 128

ERA4.81

FIP4.97

K%17.8%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%7.2%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD3030

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.7

Whiff%

p1720.7%

p1016.3%

xwOBA vs

p490.313

CT+0.8

FB-2.1

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	18	76	335	53	31	9	90%	3.8	14.5%	9.5%	4.9%	3.3%	3.66	4.88	+0.0
2015	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	18	76	335	53	31	9	90%	3.8	15.8%	9.3%	6.6%	2.7%	3.66	4.46	+0.4
2018	28	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	29	3	40	176	45	15	4	10%	1.4	20.7%	9.4%	11.3%	2.3%	4.24	3.79	—
2018	28	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	29	3	40	176	45	15	4	10%	1.4	25.6%	8.5%	17.0%	2.3%	4.24	3.27	—
2019	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	96	417	90	32	18	95%	5.1	18.7%	8.1%	10.6%	4.7%	5.34	5.14	—
2019	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	96	417	90	32	18	95%	5.1	21.6%	7.7%	13.9%	4.3%	5.34	4.66	—
2021	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	14	75	326	74	28	11	64%	3.4	20.4%	8.9%	11.5%	3.7%	3.96	4.54	+0.3
2021	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	14	75	326	74	28	11	64%	3.4	22.7%	8.6%	14.1%	3.4%	3.96	4.15	+0.7
2023	33	MIX MLE	4 levels	9	7	33	151	29	11	9	78%	3.7	18.6%	6.4%	12.2%	6.5%	5.45	5.93	-0.4
2023	33	MIX MLE	4 levels	9	7	33	151	29	11	9	78%	3.7	18.6%	6.4%	12.2%	6.5%	5.45	5.93	-0.4
2023	33	MIX RAW	4 levels	9	7	33	151	29	11	9	78%	3.7	19.2%	7.3%	11.9%	6.0%	5.45	5.89	-0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			17	11	59	275	37	27	10	65%	3.5	13.5%	9.8%	3.6%	3.6%	5.52	5.44	-0.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	36	MLB	MIA	1	1	4	17	3	2	1	100%	4.0	17.8%	10.6%	7.2%	3.0%	4.81	4.97	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	37	MLB MLE	MIA	7	7	44	187	32	21	6	100%	6.3	17.3%	11.1%	6.2%	3.4%	5.08	5.31	-0.2
2027	37	MLB CTX	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.3%	11.1%	6.2%	3.4%	5.08	5.31	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	11	59	277	37	27	10	65%	3.5	13.5%	9.8%	3.7%	3.6%	5.52	5.20	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		58	37	200	937	125	91	34	65%	3.5	13.5%	9.8%	3.7%	3.6%	5.52	5.20	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		99	60	321	1405	257	121	57	61%	3.2	18.3%	8.6%	9.7%	4.0%	4.49	4.85	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	37	200	876	161	76	35	61%	3.2	18.3%	8.6%	9.7%	4.0%	4.49	4.85	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sean Nolin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	17.8%	10.6%	3.0%	—	5.31	17.3%	6.2%	44	+0.34	—	—	—
Wandy Rodriguez L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	36	SP-	3.83	19.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	101	71
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	62
Scott Kazmir L 2021 · 4.58 FIP	37	SP	4.58	19.2%	8.8%	3.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	395	59
Chris Narveson L 2017 · 4.59 FIP	35	SP	4.59	12.2%	10.4%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	249	54
Wade LeBlanc L 2021 · 4.62 FIP	36	SP-	4.62	16.2%	6.8%	3.7%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	609	54
Francisley Bueno L 2017 · 4.44 FIP	36	SP	4.44	11.7%	8.4%	2.3%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	138	52
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	51
Eric Stults L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	35	SP	4.27	14.5%	5.9%	3.0%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	138	46
Oscar Rivera L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	36	SP	5.80	9.8%	7.8%	4.6%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	237	43
Jorge Castillo L 2017 · 4.97 FIP	35	SP	4.97	11.2%	6.7%	3.6%	.337	4.91	19.6%	11.5%	119	-0.06	4.50	408	43
Marlon Arias L 2019 · 4.83 FIP	34	SP	4.83	19.8%	11.2%	3.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	154	43
Arturo Lopez L 2019 · 5.46 FIP	36	SP	5.46	12.2%	6.8%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	445	40
Andrew Albers L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	35	SP	4.60	16.9%	3.7%	4.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	508	40
Barry Zito L 2015 · 4.52 FIP	37	SP	4.52	13.6%	10.7%	2.2%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	4.52	138	38
Chris Young R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	36	SP-	4.69	16.6%	8.6%	3.5%	.209	6.33	21.1%	11.4%	119	+1.64	4.69	242	35
Steven Wright R 2021 · 4.22 FIP	36	SP-	4.22	20.3%	15.2%	1.7%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	439	34
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	34
Jason Vargas L 2019 · 4.33 FIP	36	SP	4.33	19.1%	9.4%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	478	34
Ryan Vogelsong R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	38	SP-	4.45	18.1%	9.4%	3.1%	.295	4.79	16.7%	6.3%	82	+0.34	4.45	217	33
Alexi Ogando R 2018 · 4.10 FIP	34	SW	4.10	15.0%	6.4%	2.6%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	132	31

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	48	17.6%	10.8%	1.24	4.94
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50