Sean Nolin
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 36
LHP
6'4" / 250 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113122vR 131
ERA4.81
FIP4.98
K%17.9%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%7.2%
ROS IP51
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1090.7
Whiff%
p1720.7%
K%
p1016.3%
xwOBA vs
p490.313
CT+0.8
FB-2.1
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 18 | 76 | 335 | 53 | 31 | 9 | 90% | 3.8 | 14.5% | 9.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.66 | 5.09 | -0.2 |
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 18 | 76 | 335 | 53 | 31 | 9 | 90% | 3.8 | 15.8% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 3.66 | 4.46 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 28 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 29 | 3 | 40 | 176 | 45 | 15 | 4 | 10% | 1.4 | 20.7% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 2.0% | 4.24 | 3.62 | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 29 | 3 | 40 | 176 | 45 | 15 | 4 | 10% | 1.4 | 25.6% | 8.5% | 17.0% | 2.3% | 4.24 | 3.27 | — |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 18 | 96 | 417 | 90 | 32 | 18 | 95% | 5.1 | 18.7% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 4.6% | 5.34 | 5.06 | — |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 18 | 96 | 417 | 90 | 32 | 18 | 95% | 5.1 | 21.6% | 7.7% | 13.9% | 4.3% | 5.34 | 4.66 | — |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 14 | 75 | 326 | 74 | 28 | 11 | 64% | 3.4 | 20.4% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 3.8% | 3.96 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 14 | 75 | 326 | 74 | 28 | 11 | 64% | 3.4 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 14.1% | 3.4% | 3.96 | 4.15 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 4 levels | 9 | 7 | 33 | 151 | 29 | 11 | 9 | 78% | 3.7 | 19.8% | 7.5% | 12.3% | 6.3% | 5.45 | 5.87 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 4 levels | 9 | 7 | 33 | 151 | 29 | 11 | 9 | 78% | 3.7 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 11.9% | 6.0% | 5.45 | 5.89 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 38 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 17.9% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 44 | 187 | 33 | 21 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 17.3% | 11.2% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 5.08 | 5.31 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 38 | 161 | 27 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 16.6% | 11.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.40 | 5.67 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 39 | MLB | MIA | 5 | 5 | 33 | 139 | 22 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.6 | 15.8% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.75 | 6.03 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.3% | 11.2% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 5.08 | 5.31 | — |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.6% | 11.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.40 | 5.67 | — |
| 2029 | 39 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.8% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.75 | 6.03 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 17 | 11 | 59 | 277 | 37 | 27 | 10 | 65% | 3.5 | 13.5% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.52 | 5.20 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 37 | 200 | 937 | 125 | 91 | 34 | 65% | 3.5 | 13.5% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.52 | 5.20 | +0.5 | ||
| Career | — | 99 | 60 | 321 | 1405 | 259 | 123 | 57 | 61% | 3.2 | 18.4% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 4.0% | 4.49 | 4.86 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 37 | 200 | 876 | 162 | 77 | 35 | 61% | 3.2 | 18.4% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 4.0% | 4.49 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sean Nolin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.98 | 17.9% | 10.7% | 3.0% | — | 5.63 | 16.7% | 5.0% | 116 | +0.65 | — | — | — |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 71 |
| Wade LeBlanc L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.57 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 609 | 67 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.15 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 62 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.59 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 395 | 59 |
| Chris Narveson L 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.40 | 12.2% | 10.4% | 1.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 249 | 54 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.60 | 11.7% | 8.4% | 2.6% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 138 | 53 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 51 |
| Jon Lester L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.80 | 15.8% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .272 | 5.08 | 14.5% | 6.5% | 141 | +0.28 | 2.74 | 1,144 | 48 |
| Eric Stults L 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.25 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 138 | 46 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.36 | 9.8% | 7.8% | 3.8% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 237 | 44 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.63 | 11.2% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .337 | 5.23 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 119 | +0.60 | 4.40 | 408 | 43 |
| Marlon Arias L 2024 · 5.09 FIP | 34 | SP | 5.09 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 4.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 154 | 42 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.22 | 12.2% | 6.8% | 4.2% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 445 | 41 |
| Andrew Albers L 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.45 | 16.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 508 | 40 |
| Jason Vargas L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.39 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 478 | 40 |
| Barry Zito L 2027 · 4.80 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.80 | 13.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 138 | 38 |
| J.A. Happ L 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.81 | 20.6% | 7.1% | 4.7% | .276 | 4.79 | 19.0% | 11.7% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.28 | 1,053 | 38 |
| Chris Young R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .209 | 6.29 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 119 | +1.62 | 4.67 | 242 | 35 |
| Steven Wright R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.15 | 20.3% | 15.2% | 1.5% | .373 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 439 | 34 |
| Jesse Estrada R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.91 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 257 | 34 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 42 | 17.0% | 11.4% | 1.38 | 5.20 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |