Aaron Rozek — OGILVIE

Aaron Rozek P St. Paul Saints

Age 30 LHP 6'2" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION115 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%16.1%

BB%6.3%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	16	7	56	218	74	7	6	44%	3.5	24.2%	3.1%	21.1%	4.5%	2.40	3.93	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	16	7	56	218	74	7	6	44%	3.5	33.9%	3.2%	30.7%	2.8%	2.40	2.23	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	90	400	82	32	17	83%	3.7	15.9%	9.1%	6.8%	5.5%	5.02	5.95	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	90	400	82	32	17	83%	3.7	20.5%	8.0%	12.5%	4.2%	5.02	4.81	—
2023	27	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	26	15	86	377	81	30	15	58%	3.3	17.4%	8.8%	8.6%	3.9%	5.76	4.87	—
2023	27	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	26	15	86	377	81	30	15	58%	3.3	17.4%	8.8%	8.6%	3.9%	5.76	4.87	—
2023	27	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	26	15	86	377	81	30	15	58%	3.3	21.5%	8.0%	13.5%	4.0%	5.76	4.53	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	15	122	514	100	30	9	58%	4.7	15.9%	5.8%	10.2%	2.2%	3.91	3.70	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	15	122	514	100	30	9	58%	4.7	15.9%	5.8%	10.2%	2.2%	3.91	3.70	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	15	122	514	100	30	9	58%	4.7	19.5%	5.8%	13.6%	1.8%	3.91	3.16	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	11	109	471	102	36	15	34%	3.4	17.6%	7.7%	10.0%	3.4%	4.46	4.47	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	11	109	471	102	36	15	34%	3.4	17.6%	7.7%	10.0%	3.4%	4.46	4.47	—
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	11	109	471	102	36	15	34%	3.4	21.7%	7.6%	14.0%	3.2%	4.46	4.01	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	32	22	115	509	95	48	19	69%	3.6	15.4%	8.6%	6.8%	4.1%	4.24	5.16	—
YTD	30	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	32	22	115	509	95	48	19	69%	3.6	15.4%	8.6%	6.8%	4.1%	4.24	5.16	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AA RAW	MIN	6	2	15	65	14	3	2	33%	2.4	21.5%	4.6%	16.9%	3.1%	2.45	3.55	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	MIN	26	20	100	444	81	45	17	77%	3.8	18.2%	10.1%	8.1%	3.8%	4.50	4.94	—
ROS	30	MLB MLE	MIN	1	1	7	29	5	2	1	100%	6.8	16.1%	6.3%	9.8%	3.0%	4.58	4.58	+0.0
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	121	538	100	50	20	—	—	18.5%	9.3%	9.3%	3.7%	4.26	5.13	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	70	296	49	21	10	100%	6.4	16.4%	7.0%	9.5%	3.2%	4.67	4.75	+0.1
2028	32	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	65	274	45	21	10	100%	6.5	16.5%	7.5%	9.0%	3.5%	4.82	4.95	-0.0
2027	31	MLB CTX	MIN	4	4	26	110	18	8	4	100%	6.5	16.4%	7.0%	9.5%	3.2%	4.67	4.75	+0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	36	152	25	11	5	100%	6.0	16.5%	7.5%	9.0%	3.5%	4.82	4.95	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	10	62	262	43	19	9	100%	6.2	16.5%	7.3%	9.2%	3.4%	4.76	4.48	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	138	61	29	100%	6.3	16.5%	7.3%	9.2%	3.4%	4.76	4.48	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		156	90	578	2489	426	186	95	58%	3.7	17.1%	7.5%	9.6%	3.8%	4.38	4.70	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	31	200	862	147	64	33	58%	3.7	17.1%	7.5%	9.6%	3.8%	4.38	4.70	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Rozek (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	16.1%	6.3%	3.0%	—	4.85	16.5%	9.2%	135	+0.27	—	—	—
Travis Blackley L 2015 · 4.91 FIP	32	SP-	4.91	15.4%	6.4%	4.2%	.324	4.45	10.5%	0.0%	137	-0.46	3.85	225	88
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	82
Aaron Laffey L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	13.5%	9.7%	1.7%	.318	4.39	12.5%	5.2%	192	+0.27	3.51	282	77
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	75
Clayton Richard L 2015 · 3.56 FIP	31	SW	3.56	10.8%	4.2%	1.5%	.264	4.05	16.3%	8.6%	424	+0.49	3.56	574	70
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	69
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	68
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	68
James Russell L 2016 · 4.80 FIP	30	SW	4.80	12.4%	5.7%	3.7%	.286	3.86	16.8%	13.2%	119	-0.94	2.66	233	67
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	67
Logan Darnell L 2019 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP-	3.97	12.8%	6.1%	2.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	430	66
Brian Flynn L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	29	SW	4.49	17.7%	10.1%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	277	65
Ross Detwiler L 2016 · 4.61 FIP	30	SP-	4.61	14.3%	7.8%	3.2%	.297	5.54	14.8%	6.8%	220	+0.93	3.49	512	64
Daniel Camarena L 2023 · 4.94 FIP	30	SP-	4.94	14.0%	5.6%	4.2%	.342	6.84	12.8%	2.0%	51	+1.90	3.76	674	64
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.59	21.7%	7.5%	95	-0.11	2.97	294	63
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	63
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	63
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	62
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	62
Hector Hernandez L 2019 · 3.39 FIP	28	SW	3.39	20.2%	9.0%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	121	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	70	16.4%	6.9%	1.25	4.68
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43