Aaron Rozek
P
Wichita Wind Surge
+0.9
WAR
Age 30
LHP
6'2" / 225 lbs
AA
peak 0.9 · 2026
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.6%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%10.3%
IP107
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL6060
CMD5555
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 16 | 7 | 56 | 218 | 74 | 7 | 6 | 24.2% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 2.40 | 3.89 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 24 | 20 | 90 | 400 | 82 | 32 | 17 | 15.9% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 5.02 | 5.91 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 26 | 15 | 86 | 377 | 81 | 30 | 15 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 5.76 | 4.83 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 26 | 15 | 122 | 514 | 100 | 30 | 9 | 16.3% | 6.3% | 2.2% | 3.91 | 3.74 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 32 | 11 | 109 | 471 | 102 | 36 | 15 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.46 | 4.44 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | MIN | 20 | 20 | 107 | 453 | 82 | 34 | 13 | 18.0% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 110 | 466 | 84 | 35 | 13 | 17.9% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 104 | 437 | 79 | 33 | 13 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.57 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 18 | 18 | 99 | 420 | 76 | 32 | 13 | 18.2% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.63 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 17 | 95 | 401 | 72 | 32 | 13 | 18.1% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.71 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 16 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 68 | 31 | 13 | 17.8% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 4.74 | 4.81 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 85 | 359 | 63 | 30 | 12 | 17.4% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 4.85 | 4.93 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 14 | 14 | 80 | 336 | 64 | 26 | 12 | 19.0% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.79 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 37 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 74 | 311 | 58 | 25 | 11 | 18.5% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 4.94 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 126 | 68 | 465 | 1993 | 352 | 148 | 73 | 17.7% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 4.39 | 4.56 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 29 | 200 | 857 | 151 | 64 | 31 | 17.7% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 4.39 | 4.56 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aaron Rozek (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 18.0% | 7.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.63 | 18.1% | 10.4% | 298 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Tomas Solis L 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .264 | 5.13 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +0.96 | 4.17 | 327 | 90 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2029 · 4.49 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.49 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 4.82 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.33 | 4.49 | 408 | 89 |
| Everett Teaford L 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.43 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 103 | 86 |
| Travis Blackley L 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.89 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .324 | 4.45 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.44 | 3.85 | 225 | 86 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | .301 | 4.73 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.06 | 4.33 | 445 | 86 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.98 | 14.9% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .367 | 4.15 | 15.9% | 10.3% | 97 | +0.17 | 3.98 | 280 | 85 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2023 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 84 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 14.4% | 8.2% | 2.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 311 | 81 |
| Orlando Lara L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.15 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .348 | 4.07 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | -0.08 | 3.83 | 426 | 80 |
| James Gillheeney L 2023 · 3.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.81 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 129 | 79 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.11 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .318 | 4.39 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.28 | 3.52 | 282 | 78 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2023 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.25 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 116 | 78 |
| Greg Smith L 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.37 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 1.1% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 120 | 76 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .300 | 5.25 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.49 | 3.44 | 360 | 76 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.36 | 22.7% | 5.4% | 2.7% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 153 | 74 |
| Carlos Teller L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.63 | 12.2% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .322 | 4.86 | 13.1% | -1.1% | 60 | +0.23 | 3.74 | 333 | 74 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.04 | 10.6% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .345 | 5.08 | 10.0% | 2.8% | 83 | +0.04 | 5.04 | 175 | 74 |
| Héctor Santiago L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 22.4% | 12.4% | 3.4% | .299 | 4.88 | 22.5% | 11.9% | 154 | +0.24 | 4.34 | 713 | 72 |
| Clayton Richard L 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.51 | 10.8% | 4.2% | 1.4% | .264 | 4.12 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 424 | +0.61 | 3.51 | 574 | 71 |
| Santiago Gutierrez L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.92 | 14.8% | 9.2% | 1.6% | .350 | 4.94 | 15.8% | 5.6% | 121 | +1.02 | 3.91 | 341 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.