Aaron Rozek

P St. Paul Saints

Age 31 LHP 6'2" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX2 levels	26	15	122	3.91	3.16	19.5%	5.8%	—	K 16.2% · BB 5.8% · FIP 3.68
2025	29	MIX2 levels	32	11	109	4.46	4.01	21.7%	7.6%	—	K 17.8% · BB 7.7% · FIP 4.46
2026	30	MIX2 levels	34	24	125	4.19	4.59	18.9%	8.9%	—	K 16.1% · BB 8.1% · FIP 4.87
2027PROJ	31	MLBMIN	1	1	8	4.87	4.87	15.9%	6.9%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBMIN	4	4	23	4.95	5.04	16.2%	7.5%	0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBMIN	5	5	29	5.10	5.23	16.2%	8.1%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control60Command55

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsSantiago Gutierrez (age 31) · Everett Teaford (age 31) · Anthony Vasquez (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109118vR 126

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%15.9%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%8.9%

Proj IP78

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	16	7	56	218	74	7	6	44%	3.5	24.2%	3.1%	21.1%	4.5%	2.40	3.93	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	16	7	56	218	74	7	6	44%	3.5	33.9%	3.2%	30.7%	2.8%	2.40	2.23	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	90	400	82	32	17	83%	3.7	15.9%	9.1%	6.8%	5.5%	5.02	5.95	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	90	400	82	32	17	83%	3.7	20.5%	8.0%	12.5%	4.2%	5.02	4.81	—
2023	27	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	26	15	86	377	81	30	15	58%	3.3	17.4%	8.8%	8.6%	3.9%	5.76	4.87	—
2023	27	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	26	15	86	377	81	30	15	58%	3.3	21.5%	8.0%	13.5%	4.0%	5.76	4.53	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	15	122	514	100	30	9	58%	4.7	16.2%	5.8%	10.4%	2.2%	3.91	3.68	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	15	122	514	100	30	9	58%	4.7	16.2%	5.8%	10.4%	2.2%	3.91	3.68	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	15	122	514	100	30	9	58%	4.7	19.5%	5.8%	13.6%	1.8%	3.91	3.16	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	11	109	471	102	36	15	34%	3.4	17.8%	7.7%	10.1%	3.4%	4.46	4.46	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	11	109	471	102	36	15	34%	3.4	17.8%	7.7%	10.1%	3.4%	4.46	4.46	—
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	11	109	471	102	36	15	34%	3.4	21.7%	7.6%	14.0%	3.2%	4.46	4.01	—
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	24	125	550	104	49	19	71%	3.7	16.1%	8.1%	8.0%	3.8%	4.19	4.87	—
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	24	125	550	104	49	19	71%	3.7	16.1%	8.1%	8.0%	3.8%	4.19	4.87	—
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	24	125	550	104	49	19	71%	3.7	18.9%	8.9%	10.0%	3.5%	4.19	4.59	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	MIN	1	1	8	34	5	2	1	100%	8.0	15.9%	6.9%	8.9%	3.4%	4.87	4.87	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	64	268	43	20	10	100%	6.3	16.2%	7.5%	8.6%	3.6%	4.95	5.04	+0.3
2029	33	MLB MLE	MIN	8	8	53	222	36	18	8	100%	6.6	16.2%	8.1%	8.1%	3.8%	5.10	5.23	+0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	MIN	4	4	23	97	16	7	3	100%	5.8	16.2%	7.5%	8.6%	3.6%	4.95	5.04	+0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	MIN	5	5	29	122	20	10	5	100%	5.8	16.2%	8.1%	8.1%	3.8%	5.10	5.23	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	8	52	221	36	17	8	100%	6.5	16.2%	7.9%	8.3%	3.7%	5.03	4.77	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	138	65	31	100%	6.2	16.2%	7.9%	8.3%	3.7%	5.03	4.77	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		158	92	588	2530	438	187	95	58%	3.7	17.3%	7.4%	9.9%	3.8%	4.36	4.64	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	31	200	861	149	64	32	58%	3.7	17.3%	7.4%	9.9%	3.8%	4.36	4.64	+0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 110 IPFIP 4.66 → 4.95 (+0.29)K% 18.6% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.56%	—	×0.860	15.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.48%	—	×0.900	8.54%
HR / BF /BF	3.51%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.86%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.66 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 15 IPFIP 3.55 → 4.30 (+0.74)K% 21.5% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.54%	—	×0.810	17.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.62%	—	×1.100	5.08%
HR / BF /BF	3.08%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.69%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.55 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 79 IPFIP 3.31 → 4.09 (+0.79)K% 24.1% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.09%	—	×0.810	19.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.79%	—	×1.100	6.37%
HR / BF /BF	2.74%	÷0.986	×1.200	3.34%

Result: FIP 3.31 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 30 IPFIP 5.55 → 5.31 (−0.24)K% 16.1% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.08%	—	×0.860	13.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.89%	—	×0.900	10.70%
HR / BF /BF	4.20%	÷1.253	×1.100	3.68%

Result: FIP 5.55 → 5.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAWichita Wind Surge · 70 IPFIP 2.89 → 3.71 (+0.82)K% 21.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.38%	—	×0.810	17.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.71%	—	×1.100	5.18%
HR / BF /BF	1.81%	÷0.845	×1.200	2.57%

Result: FIP 2.89 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 52 IPFIP 3.47 → 3.64 (+0.17)K% 17.2% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.23%	—	×0.860	14.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×0.900	6.43%
HR / BF /BF	1.68%	÷1.039	×1.100	1.78%

Result: FIP 3.47 → 3.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAWichita Wind Surge · 86 IPFIP 4.48 → 4.87 (+0.39)K% 21.5% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.49%	—	×0.810	17.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.96%	—	×1.100	8.75%
HR / BF /BF	3.98%	÷1.231	×1.200	3.88%

Result: FIP 4.48 → 4.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 73 IPFIP 4.70 → 6.03 (+1.33)K% 21.3% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.32%	—	×0.770	16.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.84%	—	×1.150	9.01%
HR / BF /BF	4.39%	÷0.948	×1.250	5.79%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 4.70 → 6.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Rozek (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	15.9%	6.9%	3.4%	—	5.13	16.2%	8.4%	116	+0.26	—	—	—
Santiago Gutierrez L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP-	3.95	15.0%	8.2%	2.0%	.366	6.54	17.1%	3.7%	46	+2.59	3.90	341	77
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	70
Anthony Vasquez L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	31	SW	4.64	17.1%	8.9%	3.4%	.322	6.00	14.6%	7.3%	85	+1.36	4.02	671	65
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	64
John Bale L 2003 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	19.0%	5.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	63
Joey Lucchesi L 2024 · 4.73 FIP	31	SP-	4.73	14.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.293	3.65	22.6%	15.8%	102	-1.08	3.12	817	63
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	63
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	63
Edgar Osuna L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	31	SW	5.09	10.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	175	63
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	63
Marco Tovar L 2019 · 4.78 FIP	30	SP	4.78	12.6%	5.6%	3.7%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	327	62
Alejandro Soto L 2017 · 4.36 FIP	31	SW	4.36	13.8%	3.3%	3.7%	.323	4.03	17.1%	10.2%	61	-0.33	3.96	280	62
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	62
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	61
Sean Nolin L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	31	SP-	4.54	20.4%	8.9%	3.7%	.316	5.87	19.3%	12.9%	23	+1.33	3.79	309	61
Enrique Lechuga L 2017 · 3.78 FIP	31	SP	3.78	10.5%	6.1%	1.5%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	137	60
Irwin Delgado L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	30	SP	4.73	15.6%	9.5%	3.2%	.404	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	383	60
Andy Otero L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	30	SW	4.36	14.5%	8.9%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	200	59
Carlos Teller L 2017 · 4.63 FIP	30	SP	4.63	12.2%	9.6%	2.5%	.322	4.90	13.1%	-1.1%	60	+0.27	3.75	333	58
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	65	16.1%	7.5%	1.38	4.96
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Ricky Stone ('07)	1.3	64	15.2%	8.0%	1.55	4.68
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*