Aaron Rozek
P
St. Paul Saints
Age 30
LHP
6'2" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION69 act + 68 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106115vR 124
ERA4.63
FIP4.63
K%16.5%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%9.3%
ROS IP68
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 137 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 16 | 7 | 56 | 218 | 74 | 7 | 6 | 44% | 3.5 | 24.2% | 3.1% | 21.1% | 5.0% | 2.40 | 4.18 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 16 | 7 | 56 | 218 | 74 | 7 | 6 | 44% | 3.5 | 33.9% | 3.2% | 30.7% | 2.8% | 2.40 | 2.23 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 20 | 90 | 400 | 82 | 32 | 17 | 83% | 3.7 | 15.9% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.02 | 6.10 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 20 | 90 | 400 | 82 | 32 | 17 | 83% | 3.7 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 12.5% | 4.2% | 5.02 | 4.81 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 26 | 15 | 86 | 377 | 81 | 30 | 15 | 58% | 3.3 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 5.76 | 4.53 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 26 | 15 | 86 | 377 | 81 | 30 | 15 | 58% | 3.3 | 21.5% | 8.0% | 13.5% | 4.0% | 5.76 | 4.53 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 15 | 122 | 514 | 100 | 30 | 9 | 58% | 4.7 | 16.3% | 6.3% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 3.91 | 3.88 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 15 | 122 | 514 | 100 | 30 | 9 | 58% | 4.7 | 19.5% | 5.8% | 13.6% | 1.8% | 3.91 | 3.16 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 11 | 109 | 471 | 102 | 36 | 15 | 34% | 3.4 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.46 | 4.44 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 11 | 109 | 471 | 102 | 36 | 15 | 34% | 3.4 | 21.7% | 7.6% | 14.0% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.01 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 20 | 13 | 69 | 295 | 60 | 21 | 11 | 65% | 3.4 | 17.6% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 4.2% | 3.15 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 68 | 289 | 48 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.5% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | MIN | 1 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 7.0 | 16.5% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 137 | 584 | 108 | 42 | 20 | — | — | 18.4% | 7.1% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 3.89 | 4.74 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 7 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 16.5% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.25 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 70 | 296 | 50 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 6.4 | 16.8% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.80 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 65 | 274 | 46 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 6.5 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 4.86 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 9 | 9 | 60 | 251 | 42 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 6.6 | 16.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 5.05 | 5.20 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 100% | 6.5 | 16.8% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 5 | 5 | 36 | 152 | 26 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 7.2 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 4.86 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 6 | 6 | 40 | 169 | 28 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 6.7 | 16.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 5.05 | 5.20 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 17 | 17 | 109 | 458 | 77 | 38 | 16 | 100% | 6.4 | 16.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 4.88 | 4.62 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 31 | 31 | 200 | 844 | 142 | 70 | 29 | 100% | 6.5 | 16.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 4.88 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 144 | 81 | 532 | 2275 | 402 | 169 | 87 | 56% | 3.7 | 17.7% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 4.25 | 4.65 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 30 | 200 | 856 | 151 | 64 | 33 | 56% | 3.7 | 17.7% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 4.25 | 4.65 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aaron Rozek (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 16.5% | 7.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.99 | 16.7% | 8.5% | 194 | +0.36 | — | — | — |
| Travis Blackley L 2028 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 87 |
| Everett Teaford L 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 81 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.04 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.6% | .318 | 4.37 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.33 | 3.53 | 282 | 79 |
| Roy Merritt L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .293 | 3.88 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | -0.13 | 3.88 | 129 | 75 |
| Brian Flynn L 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.46 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 277 | 70 |
| Clayton Richard L 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.58 | 10.8% | 4.2% | 1.6% | .264 | 4.19 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 424 | +0.61 | 3.58 | 574 | 70 |
| Enrique Lechuga L 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.64 | 10.0% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .354 | 3.90 | 10.5% | 4.4% | 59 | -0.74 | 3.90 | 137 | 69 |
| James Gillheeney L 2023 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 129 | 69 |
| James Russell L 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.94 | 12.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | .286 | 3.83 | 16.8% | 13.2% | 119 | -1.11 | 2.69 | 233 | 67 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.87 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .300 | 5.18 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.31 | 3.50 | 360 | 66 |
| Luke Westphal L 2028 · 4.48 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.48 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .321 | 4.52 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 66 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.16 | 10.6% | 8.2% | 3.5% | .345 | 5.04 | 10.0% | 2.8% | 83 | -0.12 | 5.04 | 175 | 66 |
| Matt Lujan L 2024 · 5.13 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.13 | 14.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 227 | 66 |
| Logan Darnell L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.97 | 12.8% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 430 | 65 |
| Nico Tellache L 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.65 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 160 | 65 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2024 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 65 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.83 | 14.3% | 7.8% | 3.6% | .297 | 5.54 | 14.8% | 6.8% | 220 | +0.71 | 3.47 | 512 | 65 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.37 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 4.1% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 128 | 64 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2024 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.20 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 118 | 63 |
| Jonathon Niese L 2025 · 5.29 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.29 | 16.1% | 8.1% | 4.6% | .308 | 5.56 | 10.9% | 2.7% | 70 | +0.27 | 4.17 | 368 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 16.7% | 7.9% | 1.28 | 4.80 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |