Matt Walker
P
Lakeland Flying Tigers
Age 28
LHP
6'3" / 217 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 118
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
K%23.0%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%13.8%
ROS IP24
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 25 | 4 | 62 | 275 | 62 | 31 | 3 | 16% | 2.5 | 16.7% | 13.3% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 4.09 | 4.27 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 25 | 4 | 62 | 275 | 62 | 31 | 3 | 16% | 2.5 | 22.5% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 1.1% | 4.09 | 3.23 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 7 | 54 | 227 | 53 | 25 | 4 | 28% | 2.1 | 17.7% | 12.8% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 4.02 | 4.74 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 7 | 54 | 227 | 53 | 25 | 4 | 28% | 2.1 | 23.3% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 1.8% | 4.02 | 3.49 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 7 | 41 | 180 | 32 | 15 | 4 | 64% | 3.7 | 12.7% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.76 | 4.62 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 7 | 41 | 180 | 32 | 15 | 4 | 64% | 3.7 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 2.2% | 3.76 | 3.91 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | DET | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 9.2% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 7 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.09 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 204 | 88 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 61 | 18 | 156 | 682 | 109 | 84 | 15 | 30% | 2.6 | 16.0% | 12.3% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 3.98 | 4.52 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 78 | 23 | 200 | 874 | 140 | 107 | 19 | 30% | 2.6 | 16.0% | 12.3% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 3.98 | 4.52 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Walker (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 23.0% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.47 | 22.8% | 13.4% | 23 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Hector Hernandez L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 77 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 353 | 73 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 71 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.62 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 3.7% | .341 | 4.44 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 57 | -0.18 | 3.47 | 393 | 71 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 68 |
| David Huff L 2028 · 3.63 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.63 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.00 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.37 | 3.63 | 158 | 68 |
| Jake McSteen L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.92 | 19.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | .348 | 2.22 | 18.9% | 13.2% | 18 | -2.70 | 2.22 | 286 | 68 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 68 |
| Jack Dashwood L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.80 | 17.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 309 | 67 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 67 |
| Reid Love L 2024 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .373 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 280 | 66 |
| Brendan Nail L 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.43 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 165 | 66 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.31 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.21 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.04 | 153 | 66 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2025 · 3.56 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.56 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 203 | 66 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.47 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 188 | 66 |
| Ryan Magdic L 2024 · 3.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.18 | 21.5% | 4.8% | 2.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 150 | 65 |
| Carson Teel L 2024 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.22 | 17.7% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 248 | 65 |
| Andy Oliver L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .321 | 7.40 | 16.6% | 2.7% | 21 | +2.96 | 4.08 | 165 | 64 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.61 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 1.8% | .336 | 3.52 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.09 | 3.41 | 160 | 64 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2024 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 128 | 64 |