Matt Walker
P
Lakeland Flying Tigers
+0.2
WAR
Age 28
LHP
6'3" / 217 lbs
A
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.0%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%13.8%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 25 | 4 | 62 | 275 | 62 | 31 | 3 | 16.7% | 13.3% | 1.5% | 4.09 | 4.22 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 25 | 7 | 54 | 227 | 53 | 25 | 4 | 17.7% | 12.8% | 2.5% | 4.02 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 25 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 11 | 7 | 41 | 180 | 32 | 15 | 4 | 12.7% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 3.76 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | DET | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 23.0% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | DET | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | DET | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 22.6% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | DET | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 22.3% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | DET | 29 | — | 29 | 121 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 61 | 18 | 156 | 682 | 109 | 84 | 15 | 16.0% | 12.3% | 2.2% | 3.98 | 4.49 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 78 | 23 | 200 | 874 | 140 | 108 | 19 | 16.0% | 12.3% | 2.2% | 3.98 | 4.49 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Walker (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 23.0% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.45 | 22.8% | 13.4% | 97 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.19 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .308 | 5.03 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.84 | 3.48 | 134 | 85 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 83 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 81 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 81 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.58 | 25.2% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.84 | 238 | 81 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.07 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.73 | 3.02 | 153 | 81 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.67 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 2.0% | .336 | 3.47 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.20 | 3.47 | 160 | 79 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 79 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.74 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 176 | 78 |
| Edward Paredes L 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 78 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.35 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.5% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 78 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.33 | 25.5% | 9.4% | 4.0% | .329 | 4.33 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 59 | +0.00 | 2.70 | 230 | 77 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 77 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.82 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 244 | 77 |
| Mike Dunn L 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 77 |
| Adam Morgan L 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.44 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 2.2% | .314 | 3.96 | 26.1% | 17.8% | 84 | +0.52 | 3.44 | 522 | 77 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .242 | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.0% | 63 | +0.92 | 3.52 | 126 | 77 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 76 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 75 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.26 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 4.2% | .328 | 4.44 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.82 | 3.41 | 315 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.