Matt Walker — OGILVIE

Matt Walker P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 28 LHP 6'3" / 217 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%21.6%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	25	4	62	275	62	31	3	16%	2.5	16.7%	13.3%	3.4%	1.5%	4.09	4.21	—
2021	23	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	25	4	62	275	62	31	3	16%	2.5	22.5%	11.3%	11.3%	1.1%	4.09	3.23	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	7	54	227	53	25	4	28%	2.1	17.7%	12.8%	4.9%	2.4%	4.02	4.54	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	7	54	227	53	25	4	28%	2.1	23.3%	11.0%	12.3%	1.8%	4.02	3.49	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	7	41	180	32	15	4	64%	3.7	12.7%	10.0%	2.7%	2.6%	3.76	4.73	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	7	41	180	32	15	4	64%	3.7	12.7%	10.0%	2.7%	2.6%	3.76	4.73	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	7	41	180	32	15	4	64%	3.7	17.8%	8.3%	9.4%	2.2%	3.76	3.91	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	DET	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	21.6%	9.5%	12.0%	3.0%	4.51	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	DET	22	0	23	97	21	9	3	0%	1.0	21.5%	9.7%	11.8%	3.1%	4.57	4.62	-0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	DET	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	9.7%	11.8%	3.1%	4.57	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	29	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	9.7%	11.8%	3.1%	4.57	4.24	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	88	29	0%	1.1	21.5%	9.7%	11.8%	3.1%	4.57	4.24	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		61	18	156	682	109	84	14	30%	2.6	16.0%	12.3%	3.7%	2.1%	3.98	4.46	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	23	200	874	140	107	18	30%	2.6	16.0%	12.3%	3.7%	2.1%	3.98	4.46	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Walker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	21.6%	9.5%	3.0%	—	4.62	21.5%	11.8%	23	+0.11	—	—	—
Hector Hernandez L 2019 · 3.39 FIP	28	SW	3.39	20.2%	9.0%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	121	77
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	75
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	72
Chad Bell L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SW	4.57	19.4%	8.9%	3.6%	.341	4.38	18.8%	11.4%	57	-0.19	3.39	393	72
Jordan Carr L 2023 · 3.49 FIP	26	SW	3.49	17.2%	8.5%	1.4%	.270	5.16	12.7%	2.3%	137	+1.67	3.49	269	71
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	70
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	69
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	18.9%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	68
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	68
David Huff L 2015 · 3.40 FIP	30	SW	3.40	17.1%	3.8%	2.3%	.271	4.06	19.5%	14.6%	52	+0.66	3.40	158	68
Edgar Olmos L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	27	SW	3.64	18.9%	9.7%	1.7%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	203	68
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	68
Reid Love L 2018 · 3.98 FIP	26	SW	3.98	19.6%	7.2%	3.0%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	280	67
Carson Teel L 2022 · 4.26 FIP	26	SU	4.26	17.7%	7.1%	3.2%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	248	66
Austin Warner L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	491	66
Kevin Chapman L 2016 · 3.35 FIP	28	SU	3.35	23.2%	9.5%	1.8%	.348	4.08	19.2%	8.0%	39	+0.73	3.01	153	66
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	66
Josh Outman L 2016 · 4.53 FIP	31	SU	4.53	15.3%	3.7%	4.1%	.323	5.73	12.8%	-1.0%	86	+1.20	4.53	106	65
Andy Oliver L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	28	SP-	3.93	19.9%	9.9%	2.3%	.321	7.12	16.6%	2.7%	21	+3.19	3.93	165	65
Jordan Harrison L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	28	SU	3.80	19.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	244	65