Brendan Nail
P
Worcester Red Sox
Age 30
LHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 119
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
K%22.9%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP36
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | A | Greenville Drive | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Greenville Drive | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Greenville Drive | 5 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 35.1% | 13.5% | 21.6% | 0.0% | 3.52 | 1.84 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Greenville Drive | 5 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 35.1% | 13.5% | 21.6% | 0.0% | 3.52 | 1.67 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Greenville Drive | 15 | 0 | 25 | 115 | 37 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 3.96 | 4.74 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Greenville Drive | 15 | 0 | 25 | 115 | 37 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 32.2% | 13.9% | 18.3% | 2.6% | 3.96 | 3.62 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 47 | 197 | 74 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 29.3% | 9.6% | 19.7% | 3.3% | 3.61 | 3.67 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 47 | 197 | 74 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 37.6% | 8.6% | 28.9% | 2.0% | 3.61 | 2.15 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 40 | 0 | 41 | 176 | 49 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 3.76 | 4.26 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 40 | 0 | 41 | 176 | 49 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 11.4% | 16.5% | 2.3% | 3.76 | 3.44 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 5 | 53 | 234 | 54 | 25 | 6 | 15% | 1.6 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 2.87 | 4.43 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 5 | 53 | 234 | 54 | 25 | 6 | 15% | 1.6 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 2.6% | 2.87 | 3.94 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 34 | 0 | 36 | 153 | 35 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 32 | 0 | 34 | 143 | 32 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 30 | 0 | 31 | 132 | 29 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 3.5% | 4.68 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 27 | 0 | 29 | 121 | 26 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 4.88 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 3.5% | 4.68 | 4.80 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 4.88 | 5.03 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 43 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 42 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.72 | 4.46 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 185 | 88 | 31 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.72 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 127 | 5 | 175 | 762 | 183 | 92 | 21 | 4% | 1.4 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 3.45 | 4.11 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 145 | 6 | 200 | 871 | 210 | 105 | 24 | 4% | 1.4 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 3.45 | 4.11 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brendan Nail (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.79 | 22.2% | 11.9% | 94 | +0.39 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 2.91 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.82 | 2.35 | 306 | 83 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.29 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .268 | 8.16 | 15.0% | -1.4% | 20 | +3.87 | 3.04 | 145 | 82 |
| Phil Coke L 2029 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 82 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 80 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 79 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .342 | 2.95 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.78 | 2.95 | 101 | 79 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.48 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 172 | 79 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.37 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 3.99 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.38 | 3.09 | 244 | 78 |
| Jake Diekman L 2025 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .241 | 3.03 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.22 | 2.33 | 455 | 78 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.45 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.17 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.28 | 3.17 | 163 | 77 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.29 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .269 | 3.00 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.29 | 1.67 | 421 | 77 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.16 | 26.2% | 8.9% | 3.9% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 190 | 75 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.44 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.2% | .290 | 3.67 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.23 | 3.44 | 152 | 75 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.42 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 4.0% | .202 | 4.09 | 25.3% | 15.6% | 85 | -0.33 | 2.37 | 296 | 75 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.58 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.4% | .284 | 3.34 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.24 | 1.32 | 182 | 75 |
| Kyle Regnault L 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.81 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 3.3% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 204 | 75 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.52 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 3.6% | .304 | 5.19 | 22.2% | 12.2% | 26 | +0.67 | 2.68 | 256 | 74 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.69 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 4.2% | .315 | 4.13 | 20.6% | 15.0% | 125 | -0.56 | 4.07 | 424 | 74 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 176 | 73 |
| Jose Meraz L 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.51 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.71 | 3.59 | 110 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 32 | 22.4% | 10.0% | 1.29 | 4.60 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |