Brendan Nail
P
Worcester Red Sox
+0.3
WAR
Age 30
LHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.9%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.3%
IP52
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | A | Greenville Drive | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Greenville Drive | 5 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 13 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.52 | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Greenville Drive | 15 | 0 | 25 | 115 | 37 | 16 | 3 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 3.1% | 3.96 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 32 | 0 | 47 | 197 | 74 | 17 | 4 | 29.3% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 3.61 | 3.49 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 40 | 0 | 41 | 176 | 49 | 20 | 4 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | 3.76 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 34 | 5 | 53 | 234 | 54 | 25 | 6 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 2.87 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 50 | 21 | 7 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 48 | 20 | 6 | 22.7% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 45 | 20 | 6 | 22.5% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 43 | 19 | 6 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 40 | 18 | 6 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.67 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 37 | 18 | 6 | 21.5% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 34 | 17 | 6 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 4.91 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 127 | 5 | 175 | 762 | 183 | 92 | 21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 3.45 | 4.10 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 145 | 6 | 200 | 871 | 209 | 105 | 24 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 3.45 | 4.10 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brendan Nail (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.54 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 144 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Mann L 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 86 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.54 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 4.2% | .268 | 7.97 | 15.0% | -1.4% | 20 | +3.43 | 2.98 | 145 | 84 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 83 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 83 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 82 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 3.03 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.70 | 2.38 | 306 | 82 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.33 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .245 | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.48 | 3.06 | 244 | 81 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.23 | 22.9% | 6.6% | 2.2% | .314 | 3.70 | 25.3% | 14.9% | 55 | +0.47 | 2.83 | 223 | 80 |
| Jake Diekman L 2025 · 3.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.23 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.7% | .241 | 3.08 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 80 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.39 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .269 | 2.98 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.41 | 1.81 | 421 | 79 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.34 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 3.8% | .202 | 4.17 | 25.3% | 15.6% | 85 | -0.17 | 2.37 | 296 | 78 |
| Phil Coke L 2029 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 78 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.66 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .342 | 2.89 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.77 | 2.89 | 101 | 77 |
| Kyle Regnault L 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.83 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 3.4% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 204 | 76 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2025 · 3.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.42 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.24 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.18 | 3.24 | 163 | 76 |
| Marlon Arias L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 75 |
| Luke Westphal L 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.68 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .321 | 4.72 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 75 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.43 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 3.7% | .261 | 3.85 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 26 | -0.58 | 3.19 | 137 | 74 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 74 |
| Chris Narveson L 2029 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.81 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.63 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.18 | 4.62 | 249 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.