Jordan Carr
P
Asheville Tourists
Age 29
LHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 59 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 120
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
K%20.2%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%11.2%
ROS IP59
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 97 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | ROK | FCL Twins | 5 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 28.9% | 2.6% | 26.3% | 2.6% | 3.00 | 2.43 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | ROK | FCL Twins | 5 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 28.9% | 2.6% | 26.3% | 2.6% | 3.00 | 2.43 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 14 | 10 | 61 | 248 | 42 | 11 | 4 | 71% | 4.4 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 2.1% | 3.84 | 3.86 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 14 | 10 | 61 | 248 | 42 | 11 | 4 | 71% | 4.4 | 16.9% | 4.4% | 12.5% | 1.6% | 3.84 | 3.12 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 7 | 71 | 296 | 66 | 22 | 4 | 32% | 3.2 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 1.2% | 2.15 | 3.39 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 7 | 71 | 296 | 66 | 22 | 4 | 32% | 3.2 | 22.3% | 7.4% | 14.9% | 1.4% | 2.15 | 2.90 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 31 | 7 | 91 | 394 | 67 | 30 | 9 | 23% | 2.9 | 13.1% | 8.8% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 4.47 | 4.24 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 31 | 7 | 91 | 394 | 67 | 30 | 9 | 23% | 2.9 | 17.0% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 2.3% | 4.47 | 3.91 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 13 | 0 | 38 | 175 | 26 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 2.9 | 11.4% | 15.1% | -3.7% | 5.7% | 4.74 | 7.18 | -1.2 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | HOU | 56 | 0 | 59 | 248 | 50 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.2% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.46 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 97 | 423 | 76 | 45 | 15 | — | — | 18.0% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 4.57 | 5.53 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.2% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.08 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 47 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 49 | 0 | 52 | 218 | 44 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.80 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 45 | 0 | 48 | 201 | 40 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 3.5% | 4.87 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 22 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 26 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 3.5% | 4.87 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 70 | 0 | 74 | 312 | 62 | 31 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.73 | 4.46 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 168 | 84 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.73 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 85 | 24 | 270 | 1151 | 165 | 100 | 28 | 28% | 3.2 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 3.70 | 4.33 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 18 | 200 | 854 | 122 | 74 | 21 | 28% | 3.2 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 3.70 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jordan Carr (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.80 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 155 | +0.34 | — | — | — |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.46 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 277 | 81 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 353 | 78 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 78 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.87 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .300 | 5.18 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.31 | 3.50 | 360 | 77 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 75 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2024 · 3.56 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.56 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 203 | 73 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.47 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 188 | 73 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 73 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .336 | 4.86 | 17.6% | 10.1% | 69 | +0.42 | 3.88 | 523 | 72 |
| David Huff L 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.63 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.00 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.37 | 3.63 | 158 | 72 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.04 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.6% | .318 | 4.37 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.33 | 3.53 | 282 | 70 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.73 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 200 | 69 |
| Travis Blackley L 2029 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 68 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.84 | 18.7% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 324 | 67 |
| Matt Moore L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.79 | 18.3% | 8.5% | 3.9% | .334 | 5.49 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 92 | +0.70 | 2.82 | 845 | 66 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 18.8% | 7.4% | 3.6% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 393 | 65 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.37 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 4.1% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 128 | 65 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 64 |
| Josh Outman L 2028 · 4.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.70 | 15.3% | 3.7% | 4.4% | .323 | 5.71 | 12.8% | -1.0% | 86 | +1.01 | 4.70 | 106 | 63 |
| Mike Montgomery L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.57 | 16.1% | 6.6% | 1.8% | .300 | 5.17 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 108 | +1.60 | 3.36 | 764 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 53 | 20.0% | 9.5% | 1.21 | 4.63 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |