Jordan Carr — OGILVIE

Jordan Carr P Asheville Tourists

Age 29 LHP 6'2" / 210 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%16.2%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%7.4%

ROS IP59

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	24	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	5	0	9	38	11	1	1	0%	1.8	28.9%	2.6%	26.3%	2.6%	3.00	2.43	—
2021	24	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	5	0	9	38	11	1	1	0%	1.8	28.9%	2.6%	26.3%	2.6%	3.00	2.43	—
2022	25	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	14	10	61	248	42	11	4	71%	4.4	12.5%	5.2%	7.3%	2.1%	3.84	3.86	—
2022	25	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	14	10	61	248	42	11	4	71%	4.4	16.9%	4.4%	12.5%	1.6%	3.84	3.12	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	7	71	296	66	22	4	32%	3.2	17.2%	8.5%	8.8%	1.4%	2.15	3.49	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	7	71	296	66	22	4	32%	3.2	17.2%	8.5%	8.8%	1.4%	2.15	3.49	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	7	71	296	66	22	4	32%	3.2	22.3%	7.4%	14.9%	1.4%	2.15	2.90	—
2024	27	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	31	7	91	394	67	30	9	23%	2.9	13.1%	8.8%	4.3%	2.4%	4.47	4.42	—
2024	27	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	31	7	91	394	67	30	9	23%	2.9	13.1%	8.8%	4.3%	2.4%	4.47	4.42	—
2024	27	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	31	7	91	394	67	30	9	23%	2.9	17.0%	7.6%	9.4%	2.3%	4.47	3.91	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	16	0	47	221	34	26	9	0%	2.9	11.8%	13.5%	-1.7%	5.1%	5.59	6.61	—
YTD	29	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	16	0	47	221	34	26	9	0%	2.9	11.8%	13.5%	-1.7%	5.1%	5.59	6.61	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	A+ RAW	HOU	16	0	47	221	34	26	9	0%	2.9	15.4%	11.8%	3.6%	4.1%	5.59	5.53	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	HOU	53	0	55	233	39	21	7	0%	1.0	16.6%	9.1%	7.5%	3.1%	4.85	4.92	-0.2
2028	31	MLB MLE	HOU	49	0	52	218	36	21	7	0%	1.1	16.7%	9.5%	7.2%	3.3%	4.97	5.08	-0.3
2027	30	MLB CTX	HOU	16	0	17	72	12	7	2	0%	1.1	16.6%	9.1%	7.5%	3.1%	4.85	4.92	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	HOU	25	0	26	110	18	10	4	0%	1.0	16.7%	9.5%	7.2%	3.3%	4.97	5.08	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	0	43	181	30	17	6	0%	1.0	16.7%	9.3%	7.3%	3.2%	4.92	4.64	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	140	79	28	0%	1.1	16.7%	9.3%	7.3%	3.2%	4.92	4.64	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		88	24	278	1197	171	103	31	27%	3.2	14.3%	8.6%	5.6%	2.6%	3.88	4.41	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	17	200	860	123	74	22	27%	3.2	14.3%	8.6%	5.6%	2.6%	3.88	4.41	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordan Carr (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	16.2%	8.8%	2.9%	—	5.00	16.6%	7.3%	107	+0.21	—	—	—
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	81
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	78
Brian Flynn L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	29	SW	4.49	17.7%	10.1%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	277	77
Aaron Laffey L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	13.5%	9.7%	1.7%	.318	4.39	12.5%	5.2%	192	+0.27	3.51	282	77
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	76
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	74
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	74
Edgar Olmos L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	27	SW	3.64	18.9%	9.7%	1.7%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	203	73
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	71
Travis Blackley L 2015 · 4.91 FIP	32	SP-	4.91	15.4%	6.4%	4.2%	.324	4.45	10.5%	0.0%	137	-0.46	3.85	225	70
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	68
Justin Marks L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SW	3.83	18.7%	11.0%	1.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	324	67
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	66
Duane Below L 2015 · 3.63 FIP	29	SW	3.63	12.5%	3.7%	2.0%	.266	4.57	14.7%	9.6%	140	+0.94	3.63	189	66
Ross Detwiler L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	29	SW	5.50	14.2%	12.2%	3.8%	.356	4.80	14.1%	5.9%	242	-0.70	3.49	512	66
Josh Outman L 2016 · 4.53 FIP	31	SU	4.53	15.3%	3.7%	4.1%	.323	5.73	12.8%	-1.0%	86	+1.20	4.53	106	65
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	64
Sam Freeman L 2016 · 4.22 FIP	29	SU	4.22	16.3%	11.8%	1.8%	.345	4.02	22.1%	10.5%	169	-0.20	3.03	299	64
Chad Bell L 2018 · 4.38 FIP	29	SU	4.38	18.8%	7.4%	3.5%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	393	64
Onelki Garcia L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	16.5%	9.3%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	164	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	16.5%	9.1%	1.19	4.87
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41