Jordan Carr
P
Cedar Rapids Kernels
+0.6
WAR
Age 29
LHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
A+
peak 0.7 · 2028
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.2%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%11.2%
IP84
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2028
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | ROK | FCL Twins | 5 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 11 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 14 | 10 | 61 | 248 | 42 | 11 | 4 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 3.84 | 3.86 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 22 | 7 | 71 | 296 | 66 | 22 | 4 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 1.4% | 2.15 | 3.48 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 31 | 7 | 91 | 394 | 67 | 30 | 9 | 13.1% | 8.8% | 2.5% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 84 | 355 | 72 | 32 | 10 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 82 | 344 | 69 | 31 | 10 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.53 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 14 | 14 | 79 | 332 | 73 | 27 | 10 | 22.1% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.32 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 14 | 14 | 76 | 319 | 70 | 27 | 10 | 21.9% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 72 | 304 | 66 | 26 | 10 | 21.6% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.50 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 68 | 289 | 61 | 26 | 10 | 21.2% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.61 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 57 | 25 | 9 | 20.9% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.73 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 52 | 24 | 9 | 20.4% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 24 | 232 | 976 | 145 | 74 | 20 | 14.8% | 7.5% | 2.1% | 3.54 | 3.93 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 21 | 200 | 843 | 125 | 64 | 17 | 14.8% | 7.5% | 2.1% | 3.54 | 3.93 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jordan Carr (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.42 | 21.4% | 12.8% | 236 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2024 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 83 |
| Travis Blackley L 2029 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.89 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .324 | 4.45 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.44 | 3.85 | 225 | 81 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 353 | 80 |
| Tomas Solis L 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .264 | 5.13 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +0.96 | 4.17 | 327 | 80 |
| Everett Teaford L 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.43 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 103 | 80 |
| Orlando Lara L 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.15 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .348 | 4.07 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | -0.08 | 3.83 | 426 | 79 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .300 | 5.25 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.49 | 3.44 | 360 | 79 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.44 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 454 | 78 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.73 | 15.0% | 9.1% | 1.4% | .290 | 4.01 | 14.4% | 6.2% | 116 | +0.28 | 3.73 | 311 | 77 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2025 · 3.50 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.50 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 1.2% | .345 | 4.75 | 15.6% | 6.1% | 89 | +1.25 | 3.50 | 383 | 77 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2029 · 4.79 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | .301 | 4.73 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.06 | 4.33 | 445 | 77 |
| Carlos Teller L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.85 | 14.3% | 10.7% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.72 | 12.6% | 1.1% | 148 | -0.13 | 3.74 | 333 | 76 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.11 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .318 | 4.39 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.28 | 3.52 | 282 | 76 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.38 | 12.8% | 7.0% | 2.7% | .367 | 4.09 | 14.6% | 9.1% | 128 | -0.29 | 3.98 | 280 | 76 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2024 · 3.66 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.66 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 203 | 75 |
| James Gillheeney L 2024 · 3.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.81 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 129 | 75 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.25 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 116 | 74 |
| John Anderson L 2024 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.19 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 235 | 73 |
| Mike Montgomery L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.67 | 16.1% | 6.6% | 2.0% | .300 | 5.25 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 108 | +1.58 | 3.50 | 764 | 73 |
| John Gast L 2023 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 122 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.