Jordan Carr

P Asheville Tourists

Age 30 LHP 6'2" / 210 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	MIX2 levels	22	7	71	2.15	2.90	22.3%	7.4%	—	K 17.2% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.49
2024	27	A+MIN	31	7	91	4.47	3.91	17.0%	7.6%	—	K 13.1% · BB 8.8% · FIP 4.42
2026	29	A+HOU	16	0	47	5.59	5.82	15.4%	11.8%	—	K 11.8% · BB 13.5% · FIP 6.61
2027PROJ	30	MLBHOU	—	—	0	5.56	5.56	14.7%	12.0%	—
2028PROJ30% MLB	31	MLBHOU	6	0	6	5.56	5.64	15.1%	12.0%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsKelvin Marte (age 29) · John Rheinecker (age 28) · Tyler Alexander (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123131vR 139

ERA5.56

FIP5.56

K%14.7%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%2.7%

Proj IP31

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	24	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	5	0	9	38	11	1	1	0%	1.8	28.9%	2.6%	26.3%	2.6%	3.00	2.43	—
2021	24	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	5	0	9	38	11	1	1	0%	1.8	28.9%	2.6%	26.3%	2.6%	3.00	2.43	—
2022	25	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	14	10	61	248	42	11	4	71%	4.4	12.5%	5.2%	7.3%	2.1%	3.84	3.86	—
2022	25	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	14	10	61	248	42	11	4	71%	4.4	16.9%	4.4%	12.5%	1.6%	3.84	3.12	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	7	71	296	66	22	4	32%	3.2	17.2%	8.5%	8.8%	1.4%	2.15	3.49	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	7	71	296	66	22	4	32%	3.2	22.3%	7.4%	14.9%	1.4%	2.15	2.90	—
2024	27	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	31	7	91	394	67	30	9	23%	2.9	13.1%	8.8%	4.3%	2.4%	4.47	4.42	—
2024	27	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	31	7	91	394	67	30	9	23%	2.9	13.1%	8.8%	4.3%	2.4%	4.47	4.42	—
2024	27	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	31	7	91	394	67	30	9	23%	2.9	17.0%	7.6%	9.4%	2.3%	4.47	3.91	—
2026	29	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	16	0	47	221	34	26	9	0%	2.9	11.8%	13.5%	-1.7%	5.1%	5.59	6.61	—
2026	29	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	16	0	47	221	34	26	9	0%	2.9	11.8%	13.5%	-1.7%	5.1%	5.59	6.61	—
2026	29	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	16	0	47	221	34	26	9	0%	2.9	15.4%	11.8%	3.6%	4.1%	5.59	5.82	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	HOU	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.7%	12.0%	2.7%	3.3%	5.56	5.56	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	HOU	20	0	21	89	13	11	3	0%	1.1	15.1%	12.0%	3.1%	3.5%	5.56	5.64	-0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	HOU	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	15.1%	12.0%	3.1%	3.5%	5.56	5.64	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	27	4	3	1	0%	1.1	15.1%	12.0%	3.1%	3.5%	5.56	5.26	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	126	94	31	0%	1.1	15.1%	12.0%	3.1%	3.5%	5.56	5.26	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		88	24	278	1197	171	103	31	27%	3.2	14.3%	8.6%	5.6%	2.6%	3.88	4.41	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	17	200	860	123	74	22	27%	3.2	14.3%	8.6%	5.6%	2.6%	3.88	4.41	-2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Asheville Tourists · 47 IPFIP 5.53 → 6.61 (+1.08)K% 15.4% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.38%	—	×0.770	11.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.76%	—	×1.150	13.53%
HR / BF /BF	4.07%	÷1.000	×1.250	5.09%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.53 → 6.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 91 IPFIP 3.88 → 4.42 (+0.54)K% 17.0% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.01%	—	×0.770	13.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.61%	—	×1.150	8.76%
HR / BF /BF	2.28%	÷1.191	×1.250	2.40%

Result: FIP 3.88 → 4.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 61 IPFIP 2.38 → 3.05 (+0.67)K% 24.8% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.80%	—	×0.770	19.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.32%	—	×1.150	8.41%
HR / BF /BF	0.81%	÷1.134	×1.250	0.90%

Result: FIP 2.38 → 3.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAWichita Wind Surge · 10 IPFIP 5.46 → 5.67 (+0.21)K% 10.0% → 8.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	10.00%	—	×0.810	8.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.100	8.80%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.231	×1.200	3.90%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 146).

Result: FIP 5.46 → 5.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 61 IPFIP 3.12 → 3.86 (+0.74)K% 16.9% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.94%	—	×0.740	12.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.44%	—	×1.180	5.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.10%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.12 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Twins · 9 IPFIP 2.43 → 3.91 (+1.48)K% 28.9% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.95%	—	×0.680	19.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.63%	—	×1.250	3.29%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷0.982	×1.400	3.75%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 2.43 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordan Carr (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.56	14.7%	12.0%	3.3%	—	5.64	15.1%	3.1%	21	+0.08	—	—	—
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	75
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	73
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	70
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	70
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	67
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	66
Andy Otero L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	30	SW	4.36	14.5%	8.9%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	200	66
Bobby Jones L 2002 · 5.24 FIP	30	SU	5.24	14.3%	12.7%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	321	66
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	65
Eric DuBose L 2005 · 5.45 FIP	29	SW	5.45	12.6%	14.1%	3.0%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	178	64
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	62
Stephen Randolph L 2004 · 5.69 FIP	30	SU	5.69	15.8%	18.8%	2.8%	.252	5.97	28.2%	9.0%	13	+0.28	4.83	155	61
Tommy Phelps L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	30	SW	4.80	19.4%	8.3%	4.2%	.286	3.98	13.2%	5.7%	23	-0.82	3.39	120	61
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	58
Greg Nappo L 2017 · 6.26 FIP	28	SU	6.26	12.3%	12.6%	4.7%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	144	57
Miguel Pena L 2019 · 5.08 FIP	28	SW	5.08	16.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	282	56
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	56
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	56
Aaron Brown L 2022 · 5.38 FIP	30	SU	5.38	21.3%	12.5%	4.5%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	269	56
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	14.9%	12.0%	1.30	5.56
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*